What threatens mankind warming, and what to do to prevent disasters

IN last years The climate on Earth changes noticeably: some countries suffer from abnormal heat, others from too harsh and snowy winters, unusual for these places.

Environmentalists talk about global climate change, including an increase in the average annual temperature causing the melting of glaciers and an increase in the world's ocean. In addition to warming, the unbalancement of all natural systems is also occurring, which leads to a change in the regimen of precipitation, temperature anomalies and an increase in frequency extreme phenomena, such as hurricanes, floods and droughts.

According to scientists, in ten months of 2015, the average temperature of the planet was 1.02 ° C above the one that was recorded in the XIX century (when monitoring changes in global temperature). The threshold of one degree was exceeded for the first time in modern history. Scientists agree that it is human activity - burning oil, gas and coal - leads to a greenhouse effect that causes an increase average temperature. Experts note that in the period between 2000 and 2010, the most powerful growth of greenhouse gas emissions over the past 30 years has been observed. According to the World Meteorological Organization, in 2014, their concentration in the atmosphere reached a record high level.

What threatens the warming of climate

If states are not seriously engaged in the problem of protection ambientFor 2100, the temperature on the planet can rise by 3.7-4.8 ° C. Climatologists warn: irreversible consequences for ecology will occur already when warming by more than 2 ° C.

To pay maximum attention to climate problems, the UN attracted not only politicians and scientists, but also celebrities. Hollywood actor Robert Redford in his statement warned that for the international community, the time was the time meter and denial of climate change. "

What consequences are waiting for the planet, if the temperature rise will not be able to stop?

Natural disasters

Climatic belts will move, weather changes will become more sharp ( very coldy, replacing sudden thaws in winter, an increase in the number of abnormally hot days in the summer). Frequency and power will increase anomalous phenomena, such as drought and flooding.

The relationship between climate change and the emergence of natural disasters proved American scientists who discovered traces of warming when studying tropical cyclones in Pacific Ocean, unusually tall summer temperatures in Europe, China, South Korea and Argentina, as well as forest fires in the US state of California. Climatic changes also also served as a catalyst for drought in Africa and the Middle East, snowstorms in Nepal and torrential rains that caused floods in Canada and New Zealand.

Unsuitable

Some countries due to increased humidity and high average temperatures by 2100 may become unsuitable for life. According to the study of American scientists, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE and other countries of the Middle East fall into the risk group.

According to the calculations of climatologists, at the current rate of growth of greenhouse gas emissions, by 2070, the average air temperature in the Persian Gulf countries can be 74-77 ° C. This will make territories unsuitable for people. The exception can be large megalopolises with developed system Air conditioning. But people will be able to leave the house only at night.

Biodiversity

According to some scientists, we are in the middle of the sixth in the account in the history of the land of mass extinction of species. And this time this process is caused by the actions of a person. If the climate warming does not stop, many ecosystems, the types of living beings that are included in them will become less diverse, less saturated.

There are forecasts of extinction of up to 30-40% of plant and animal species, since their habitat will change faster than they can adapt to these changes.

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a lack of drinking water, hunger and epidemic

UN experts warn that warming will adversely affect the yields, especially in the underdeveloped countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America, which will lead to food issues. According to scientists, by 2080 the number of people encountered with the threat of hunger may increase by 600 million people.

Another important consequence of climate change can be lack of drinking water. In the regions with a dry climate ( central Asia, Mediterranean, South Africa, Australia, etc.) The situation is even more aggravated due to the reduction of precipitation.

Hunger, lack of water, as well as insect migration can lead to an increase in epidemics and distribution in northern regions such tropical diseases like malaria and fever.

Climate change can touch not only people's health, but also increase the risk political disagreements and conflicts for access to water and food resources.

Enhancement of the World Ocean

One of the most tangible consequences of climate warming, apparently, will be the melting of glaciers and an increase in the level of the world's ocean. Millions of people on the coast will die from frequent floods or will be forced to proceed, predict UN analysts.

According to the expert community, the rise in sea level in the XXI century will be up to 1 m (in the twentieth century - 0.1-0.2 m). In this case, the most vulnerable will be lowland, coastal territories and small islands.

The first in the risk zone falls the Netherlands, Bangladesh and small island states, such as Bahamas, Maldives.

Significant areas can be flooded in countries such as Russia, USA, United Kingdom, Italy, Germany, Denmark, Belgium, Iraq, Thailand and Vietnam. Serious damage threatens China, where about 140 million people can lose her bed, and Japan, where it can flood at home more than 30 million people - the fourth part of the country's population.

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Estimated consequences for the Russian Federation

The climate in Russia also changes noticeably. More often there are sharp changes in weather, abnormally high and abnormally low temperatures.

According to the Ministry of Industry of the Russian Federation, in our country from 1990 to 2010 the amount of natural disasters, such as floods, floods, villages and hurricanes, has almost four times and continues to increase by about 6-7% per year. Environmentalists predict that over the next ten years their number can double.

According to the World Bank, the annual damage from the impact of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena in Russia is 30-60 billion rubles.

According to Roshydromet calculations, in Russia the average annual temperature It grows 2.5 times faster than around the world. Most active warming is coming In the northern regions of the Russian Federation, add to the Ministry of Emergency Situations. So, in the Arctic to eND XXI century Temperature can grow at 7 ° C. Already by the middle of the XXI century, the average temperature in winter throughout Russia may increase by 2-5 ° C. The increase in summer temperatures will be less pronounced and will be 1-3 ° C by the middle of the century, rescuers are believed.

The head of Roshydromet Alexander Frolova believes that climate warming for Russia is not only risks, but also the advantages.

Treats associated with warming:

The increase in the repeatability, intensity and duration of droughts in some regions, extreme precipitation, flooding, hazardous cases of agriculture of the soil - in others;

Raising fire hazard in forests and in peatlands;

Violation of the usual way of life of indigenous northern peoples;

Degradation of permafrost with damage to buildings and communications;

Violation of environmental equilibrium, displacement of some biological species others;

An increase in electricity costs for air conditioning in the summer season for a significant territory of the country.

Positive changes:

Warming in the Arctic will increase the duration of navigation through the Northern Sea Path and facilitates the development of oil and gas fields on the shelf;

Reduced heating season, and, accordingly, energy consumption will decrease;

The northern border of agriculture will shift north, thanks to which the area of \u200b\u200bagricultural land will grow, especially in Western Siberia. And in the Urals.

Cutting peatlands in the Tver region, 2014

© Tass / Sergey Bobyl

What to do

According to scientists, it is hardly possible to completely prevent the climate change to humanity. but international community It is capable of keeping the temperature rise in order to avoid irreversible effects of ecology. To do this, it is necessary to limit greenhouse gas emissions, develop alternative energy and develop a risk reduction strategy due to warming.

Adaptation of the life of society to new conditions

Plans to minimize climate change, should cover all spheres of human activity, including health care, agriculture and infrastructure.

In Russia, for example, you need to change storm sewer, prepare for storm winds (recalculate the strength of structures), to change the fire extinguishing system - droughts increase the fire danger, explains Alexey Kokorin. In Kyrgyzstan, the snow border rose in Tien Shan, it caused problems with grazing cattle - it is necessary to take measures to preserve pastures.

However, U. different states Different opportunities to level the effect of climate change. So, for example, Holland and Bangladesh are experiencing the same problems: it became more stormsThe ocean level rose. But in Holland there is already an action plan, they know how to strengthen the dams, where they will take the funds from. And in Bangladesh there is nothing of it, and 10 times more coastline and 10 times more populationAnd 100 million people live in dangerous territories, which will need to move away somewhere.

Thus, Kokorin adds, most of the measures necessary for adaptation is quite simple and understandable, but for their implementation, funds and effective planning are needed.

Reduced greenhouse gas emissions

According to climatologist estimates, to keep the temperature rise in the range up to 2 ° C, countries need to be in half to reduce global emissions relative to the level of 1990, and by the end of the XXI century - to reduce to zero.

According to PWC analysts, since 2000, Russia has reduced carbon dioxide emissions by 3.6% per year, the United Kingdom - by 3.3%, France - by 2.7%, USA - by 2.3%. The average annual reduction of carbon emissions over the past 15 years amounted to 1.3%.

However, these efforts are small. To prevent irreversible climate change, the annual reduction in carbon dioxide emissions up to 2100 should be at least 6.3%.

This means, on the one hand, it is necessary to introduce energy-saving technologies, on the other - to move on alternative energy sources.

Sun or atom

Several energy sources are safe for the atmosphere from the point of view of emissions: hydropower, nuclear power plants and new renewable sources - sun, wind, tides and flows. Hydropower has foreseeable physically limits (rivers on earth not so much), the wind and tides can be used only locally, so the main sources of energy of the future are the sun and atom, considers the deputy director of the institute of the problems of safe development of nuclear energy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor Rafael Harutyunyan.

According to the expert, on the basis of the current level of technology development, atomic energy looks more solid: the share of alternative renewable energy sources now accounts for 2% of world consumption, and the atom already gives 16% of the electricity of the world (in developed countries - more than 70%, to the north West Russia - 40%).

The advantage of the atomic energy is that it is a major energy, it is a power plant for large industrial agglomerations, large cities.

Sunshine's trump card is almost ubiquitous accessibility and dynamic technology development. In addition, the solar energy is improving and can become much more economical, unlike nuclear energy, which will not be able to significantly reduce it, argued with the supporters of the atom head of the Climate and Energy program WWF Russia Alexey Kokorin.

The adviser to the President of the Russian Federation and his representative on climate issues Alexander Bedtitsky believes that it is impossible to fully solve the problem of reducing greenhouse gas emissions due to renewable energy sources. The expert led as an example of helium and wind power. According to him, ensure the energy industry with solar panels in nordic countries, such as Russia, where there is half a year in the north, half a year - no, it is impossible.

The same, according to Bedtsky, concerns wind power. It is suitable for individual consumption, but not for industrial production. Windmills are used in many regions, mainly in coastal areas, but there is no continuous coverage of the territory.

In Russia, adds adviser to the President of the Russian Federation for climate, about a third of the power engineering is not based on mineral raw materials, but on atomic and hydropower.

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Who will pay

Negotiations on countering climate change are complicated by disagreements between rich and poor countries.

The transition to environmentally friendly energy sources requires considerable costs. Developed countries insist that all participants in the negotiations contribute to these efforts. In turn, developing countries believe that industrial powers are responsible for climate change, which have long contaminate the atmosphere with greenhouse gases.

According to secretary-General UN Pan Ki-Moon, a special responsibility in combating climate change and the consequences of this phenomenon lies in developed countries. In 2010, Green Climate Fund was created for the help of developing countries under the auspices of the UN (Green Climate Fund. Funds are allocated mostly developed states. It is planned that by 2020 the volume of the Foundation should be $ 100 billion, but so far it is just over $ 10 billion in it.

Now developed countries are experiencing a serious burden on state budgets, so they prefer to climate funding going through private investment or loans and loans, explains Alexey Kokorin. Vulnerable countries take loans are not ready.

Despite the fact that Russia has no obligations to make funds to the "Green Climate Fund", Moscow is ready for a voluntary basis to support him, Alexander Horitsky adds. First of all, this concerns the CIS countries.

In November 2015, the Foundation approved the allocation of $ 168 million to the first eight projects to assist developing countries in adapting to the negative consequences of climate change. We are talking about three projects in Africa, three - in the Asia-Pacific region and two - in Latin America.

Burning garbage in India

© AP Photo / Anupam Nath

Paris Conference and New Agreement

On December 12, 2015, at the UN World Conference on Climate in Paris, 195 delegations from all over the world approved the Global Agreement, which should come to replace the Kyoto Protocol, the validity of which ends in 2020.

April 22, 2016 1. From Russia, the document was signed by Deputy Chairman of the Government Alexander Khloponin.

The agreement will come into force after it is ratified by 55 countries, which accounted for at least 55% of the total global greenhouse gas emissions.

The main provisions of the document

The main goal of the new treaty, which all participating countries confirmed is to achieve a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and thereby keep an increase in the average temperature on the planet in the range of 1.5-2 ° C.

Currently, the efforts of the global community are not enough to contain warming, is noted in the document. Thus, the level of aggregate emissions risks to reach 55 Gigatonn in 2030, while the UN expert estimates are calculated, this maximum mark should be no more than 40 gigaton. "In this regard, countries to participate in the Paris Agreement need more intensive measures," is emphasized in the document.

The contract has a framework, its participants still have to determine the volumes of greenhouse gas emissions, measures to prevent climate change, as well as the rules for performing this document. But key provisions Already agreed.

The Agreement participants undertake:

Make national plans to reduce emissions, technological re-equipment and adaptation to climate change; These obligations of the state should be reviewed in the direction of strengthening every five years;

Systematically reduce CO2 emissions into the atmosphere; To this end, by 2020, it is necessary to develop national strategies for the transition to the carbon economy;

Every year to allocate $ 100 billion to the green climatic foundation for the help of the underdeveloped and most vulnerable countries. After 2025, this amount should be revised upward "taking into account the needs and priorities developing countries";

Set up international exchange "Green" technologies in the field of energy efficiency, industry, construction, agriculture, etc.

uS President Barack Obama

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The agreement implies a decrease in carbon pollution, which threatens our planet, as well as the creation of new jobs and the growth of the economy due to investment in low carbon technology. This will help delay or avoid some of the most terrible effects of climate change.

uS President Barack Obama

At the time of the summit, the preliminary plans to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases presented 189 states. Five countries that account for the greatest amount of emissions, provided the following figures for their decline in relation to 1990:

The European Union - 40%;

Russia - 30%;

US - 12-14%;

China - 6-18%;

Japan is 13%.

Officially, countries should voice their obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the day of signing the document. The most important condition - they should be no lower than the already stated goals in Paris.

To monitor the fulfillment of the Paris Agreement and the obligations assumed, it is proposed to form a special workgroup. It is planned that it will begin work already in 2016.

Disagreements and ways to solve them

"Must" replaced "should be"

At the stage of discussion of the contract, Russia advocated the agreement to be legally binding for all countries. The United States was against this. As the unnamed diplomat stated, the words of which leads the Associated Press agency, the American delegation insisted that in the final document in the section on indicators to reduce emissions into the atmosphere the word "should" have been replaced by "should be".

Such a contract structure makes it possible to do without ratifying the document in the US Congress, which is essentially skeptical about Obama's environmental policy.

There are no specific obligations

Another proposal of the Russian Federation was the division of responsibility for emissions between all countries. However, there were developing countries against this. In their opinion, most of the load should go to developed states that for a long time were the main sources of emissions. Meanwhile, now in the top five "pollutants" of the planet, along with the United States and the EU, are China and India, which are considered to develop countries. Russia is located in fifth place in terms of CO2 emissions.

As a result of the study of materials meteorological observationsPerformed in all areas of the globe, it has been established that the climate is not constant, but is subject to certain changes. Bold B. late XIX. in. Warming was particularly intensified in the 1920-30s, but then the slow cooling began, which ceased in the 1960s. Research geologists of sedimental deposits earth crust It was shown that much more climate change occurred in the past epochs. Since these changes were due to natural processes, they are called natural.

Along with natural factors, global climatic conditions has an all-growing effect. Human economic activity. This influence began to appear thousands of years ago, when in connection with the development of agriculture in arid areas, artificial irrigation was widely used. The propagation of agriculture in the forest zone also led to some climate change, as it required the cutting of forests on large spaces. However, climate change was mainly limited to change meteorological conditions Only in the lower layer of air in those areas where significant economic events were carried out.

In the second half of the XX century. In connection with fast development Industry and growth of energy-relatedness arose a threat to climate change on the entire planet. Modern scientific research has established that influence anthropogenic activity The global climate is associated with the action of several factors, of which the greatest value Have:

• an increase in the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide, as well as some other gases entering the atmosphere in the course of economic activity, which increases greenhouse effect in the atmosphere;
• an increase in the mass of atmospheric aerosols;
• increasing the amount of thermal energy generated in the process of economic activity entering the atmosphere.

The first of the indicated causes of anthropogenic climate change is the greatest value. Essence "" is as follows. The atmosphere contains in a certain concentration of "radiation-active" gases having great importance For life on earth, because they are delayed in lower layers Atmosphere. Without these gases, the temperature of the earth's surface would be approximately 33 ° C below. However, an increase in concentration greenhouse gases(carbon dioxide - C0 2, methane - CH 4, nitrogen pump - N, 0, chlorofluorocarbons, etc.) The earth's surface leads to the formation of a certain "gas curtain", which does not let excess infrared radiation from the surface of the Earth back into space as This must be with the normal concentration of these gases. As a result, a significant part of the energy remains in the surface layer, which causes warming at its surface itself.

The main contribution to warming makes carbon dioxide (65% of all sources). The increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is determined by the formation of C0 2 as a result of burning coal, petroleum products and other types of fuel. The flow of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is so great that the termination of this process in the coming decades is technically impreit. In addition, the amount of energy consumption in developing countries begins to grow rapidly. The gradual increase in the amount of CO, and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere already has a noticeable impact on the climate of the Earth, changing it towards warming. The general trend towards improving the global average temperature at the surface of the Earth is enhanced, which has already led to the XX century. to an increase in the average air temperature by 0.6 ° C.

As a result of a fourfold increase in the second half of the XX century. The volume of carbon compound emissions of the Earth's atmosphere began to heat up with increasing pace (Fig. 1). According to UN forecasts, the subsequent global increase in air temperature in the XXI century will be from 1.5 to 4 ° C.

Fig. 1. Changing the average annual air temperature in the land layer (1860-2000)

The following effects of global warming are predicted:

• increasing the level of the oceans, as a result of the melting of glaciers and polar ice (over the past 100 years, 10-25 cm), which, in turn, turns around the flooding of territories, displacement of the borders of swamps and low-rise areas, an increase in the salinity of water in the mouths of the rivers, as well as potential loss of human accommodation;
• changing the amount of precipitation (the amount of precipitation increases in the northern part of Europe and decreases in southern);
• the change hydrological regime, quantity and quality of water resources;
• impact on environmental systems, Rural and Forest! Yuu economy (mixing climatic zones in the northern direction and migration of species of wild fauna, a change in seasonality of growth and productivity of land in rural and forestry).

All the above factors can have a catastrophic impact on the health of people, the economy and the society as a whole. The growing frequency of droughts and the subsequent crisis of agriculture increase the threat of hunger and social stability in some regions of the world. Difficulties with water supply in countries with warm climat Stimulate the spread of tropical and subtropical diseases. As the trends in the warming weather become more volatile, and climatic natural disasters are more destructive. Increasing damage caused natural disasters world economy (Fig. 2). Only in one 1998, he exceeded the damage caused by natural disasters for the entire 1980s., Tens of thousands of people died and about 25 million "ecological refugees" were forced to leave their homes.

Fig. 2. Economic damage caused by world economy, 1960-2000. (billion US dollars, annually)

At the end of the XX century. Humanity has come to understand the need to solve one of the most complex and extremely dangerous environmental problems associated with climate change, and in the mid-1970s. Active work began in this direction. At the World Climate Conference in Geneva (1979), the foundations of the World Climate Program were laid. In accordance with the UN General Assembly resolution on the protection of the global climate in the interests of the current and future generations, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) was adopted. The purpose of the Convention is to achieve the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in an atmosphere at a level that will not have a dangerous impact on the global climate system. And the solution to this task is supposed to be carried out on time, sufficient for natural adaptation of ecosystems to climate change and avoiding the threat of food production, as well as ensuring further economic development on a sustainable basis.

To reduce the threat of global warming, it is primarily necessary to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Most of these emissions occur as a result of burning fossil fuels, which continues to provide more than 75% of global energy. A rapidly increasing number of cars on the planet enhances the risk of further emissions. Stabilization of CO, in the atmosphere at a safe level is possible when common reduction (by about 60%) The volume of greenhouse gas emissions causing global warming. This can help further development Energy-saving technologies, wider use of renewable energy sources.

On the III conference of countries that have signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (RKIK) in Kyoto, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted to UNFCCC (1997), which recorded certain quantitative obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for industrialized countries and countries with economies in transition. At the time of signing the Kyoto Protocol, greenhouse gas emissions were distributed as follows: USA - 36.1%, EU countries - 25.0, Russia - 17.4, Japan - 8.5, countries of Eastern Europe - 7.4, Canada - 3.3, Australia and New Zealand - 2.3% of global emissions. The implementation of the Kyoto Protocol could lead to significant progress, as the Protocol obliges industrialized countries to go on emission limitations and reduce the total greenhouse gas emissions in the period 2008-2012. Average by 5%, compared with the level of 1990, the achievement of the first group of objectives set in the Kyoto Protocol is considered by the UN only as the beginning of the movement towards what needs to be done to slow down the global warming process, and in the future - to reduce the risk of global Climate change.

High hopes of the world community pinned on the 15th Conference of the UN Climate Change (Copenhagen, 2009). On the eve of her discovery, new data on the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions were published individual countries: China - 20.8%; USA - 19.9; Russia-5.5; India-4.6; Japan-4.3; Germany - 2.8; Canada - 2.0; United Kingdom - 1.8; South Korea - 1.7; Iran - 1.6% relative to the cumulative C02 emission into the atmosphere. At the conference, recommendations were developed on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and annual allocations to small states of $ 100 billion to financing environmental programs until 2020. However, disagreements between developed and developing countries did not allow to adopt a legally binding document to reduce harmful emissions.

In Russia, a climate doctrine has been developed and approved, in which the state declares that it is ready to allocate resources for systematic observations of the climate, as well as fundamental applied research In the climate area and related areas of science. Russia as much as possible concentrates efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increasing their absorption by absorbers and drives. It is assumed to achieve this in the consistent implementation of energy-saving technologies and alternative energy sources. Russia has committed itself to the further mitigation of the anthropogenic effect on the climate: by 2020, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 25% with respect to 1990 (EU countries - by 20%).

Studying climatic changes

Plant residues, relief and glacial sediments, rocks and fossils contain information on significant fluctuations in average temperatures and precipitation over geological time. Climate change can also be studied on the basis of the analysis of annual rings of wood, alluvial deposits, bottom precipitation of oceans and lakes and organic peatlands. During the last few million years, the climate has happened in general, and now, judging by the continuous reduction of polar ice sheets, we, apparently, are at the end of the ice age.

Climatic changes for the historic period can sometimes be reconstructed on the basis of information on indirect, floods, abandoned settlements and migration of peoples. Continuous series of air temperature measurements are available only for meteorological stations located mainly in the northern hemisphere. They cover only a little more than one century. These data indicate that over the past 100 years, the average temperature on the globe increased by almost 0.5 ° C. This change occurs not smoothly, but jumps like - sharp warming replaced with stable stages.

Specialists of different areas of knowledge proposed numerous hypotheses to explain the causes of climate change. Some believe that climatic cycles are determined by periodic fluctuations in solar activity with an interval of about 11 years. On annual I. seasonal temperatures Changes in the form of the Earth's orbit, which led to a change in the distance between the Sun and the Earth. Currently, the Earth is closest to the Sun in January, but approximately 10,000 years ago, it was held in July. According to another hypothesis, depending on the angle of inclination of the earth's axis, the amount of solar radiation arrived on the Earth was changed, which influenced the overall circulation of the atmosphere. It is not excluded that the polar axis of the Earth occupied another position. If the geographical poles were on the latitude of the modern equator, then the climatic belts are shifted, respectively.

Geographical theories explain the long-term fluctuations in the climate with the movements of the earth's crust and the change in the situation of the mainland and oceans. In the light of the global plate tectonics over the geological time, the mainland moved. As a result, their position was changed in relation to the oceans, as well as in latitude, etc.

The large masses of dust and gases entering the atmosphere during volcanic eruptions, episodically become an obstacle on the path of solar radiation and led to the cooling of the earth's surface. Increasing the concentration of some gases in the atmosphere aggravates the overall trend towards warming.

Effect of climate on life and economic activity of people

A person living in a certain locality gets used to, adapts (from lat. Adaptation - adaptation) to the conditions of its environment, including to climatic features terrain. His clothing, shoes, food, dwelling, classes - the result of this adaptation. It has a significant impact on economic activities.

Adaptation is necessary for a person when changing climatic conditions.

Global climate change

O. Speranskaya, "Eco-Consent"
Gunnar Boy Olesen, Energy and Development Forum

In early 2001, a third report was published prepared by an intergovernmental group of climate change experts (IPCC). This report contains scientifically based facts of global warming, given an objective picture of the observed changes in the climatic system and the processes that are causing them.

Global warming Breaks significant, perhaps even disastrous consequences for nature and man. This is a truly a global problem that affects all countries and regions. The reason for climate change lies both in the natural phenomena themselves, and caused anthropogenic factors leading to greenhouse gas emissions.

The preparation of the third report of the IPCC participated 123 of the author, more than 500 experts presented their materials, and more than 300 experts prepared suggestions and comments to the report that were taken into account in the final text. In addition to the main report published a brief brochure for government and public organizations.

Proved: The climate changes

The first working group of the IPCC found that the climate changes and becomes warmer. During the 20th century, the average annual temperature near the surface of the Earth increased by 0.6 ° C. XX century, perhaps became the warmest century of the past millennium, and the 90s - the warmest decade of all millennia.

Satellite data suggests that since the late 1960s, there has been a decrease in snow cover area by about 10%. Approximately 2 weeks decreased the duration of the existence of ice cover on rivers and lakes in medium and high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. There was a widespread retreat of mountain glaciers in non-polar districts. In the northern hemisphere, almost 10-15% decreased area sea ice In Spring I. summer periods. Since the end of summer and before the beginning of the fall, the thickness of the sea ice decreased by 40%.

During the twentieth century, the average sea level rose by 0.1-0.2 m. In most areas of high and medium latitudes of the northern hemisphere, the amount of precipitation increased by 0.5-1%.

In the last decade, in some areas of Asia and Africa, the repeatability and intensity of the drought increased. Since the 1950s, they became more frequent, stable and intense such phenomena as El Niño.

Causes of climate change

Climatic system reaction on anthropogenic effects Comes against the background of natural climate fluctuations, whose temporary scales are from several weeks to several centuries. All calculations carried out using global climate models, which take into account the observed growth of the concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosol, indicate a great contribution of anthropogenic factors into a change in the temperature of the earth's surface for the last four decades.

Obviously, warming over the past 50 years cannot be explained only by natural changes, however, it is well explained by the joint impact of anthropogenic and natural changes.

In many ways, climate change can be explained by increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Recall that the main greenhouse gases are CO2, methane, nitrogen sulfur hexafluoride and some gases of artificial origin (for example, freon). The concentration of all greenhouse gases is rapidly increasing, and CO2 concentration is currently higher than any other period over the past 420,000 years, and possibly higher than in the last 20 million years. So, according to the IPCC, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in the period from 1750 to 2000 increased by 31%. The increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere was approximately 0.4% per year for two past decades. In the 1990s, CO2 concentration increased by 0.2-0.8% per year.

Approximately 3/4 of the CO2 anthropogenic emission over the past 20 years is due to the burning of fossil fuels. The rest of the issue is associated with industrial processes, a change in land use and, especially, with a reduction in forest area. As follows from the IPCC report, the ocean and continents absorb half anthropogenic carbon dioxide.

Man continues to threaten the climate of the planet and herself

The impact of a person will continue to change the atmosphere and climate of the Earth in the twentieth century. Scientists have determined that if no measures have been taken to reduce CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases, then for the period from 1990 to 2100, the temperature at the surface of the Earth will rise by 1.5-1.8 ° C, and the increase in temperature on continents north of the equator will be significantly above.

It is likely that this will lead to an increase in the sea level of approximately 40 cm (albeit with a great error), an increase in the number of storms and other natural weather events, such as rains, which will lead to the flooding of significant territories. The caps of polar ice and glaciers on the vertices of the mountains will be reduced, with the exception of the Antarctic territory. In the Arctic districts (Siberia, Alaska, etc.), the melting of permafrost will begin. All this can lead to an additional emission of greenhouse gases and the growing greenhouse effect.

In the following centuries, climatic changes will continue, and if we do not reduce the role anthropogenic factor In this process, the consequences of global warming will be much worse. The sea level can rise to three meters and lead to the disappearance of the Gulf Stream.

According to the second working group of the IPCC, individual sections of nature are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Some of them can be completely destroyed. These ecosystems include coral reefs, Boreal I. rainforests, steppe swamps and natural meadows. According to the report submitted in the report, in the vast territories of Eastern Europe, the European part of Russia and the central part of Canada and California drops a much larger amount of precipitation in the form of rain than in the form of snow. Over the past decade, 67% of glaciers decreased in the Himalayas and the Tien Shan Mountains. Under the threat of disappearance - half of the glaciers Alps.

Eyewitnesses tell

A group of experts of the Canadian Institute of Perspective Development worked in the Polar Settle of Sax Harbor on the island of Bank for a whole year. In the removed documentary film The villagers are told that the ice is becoming thinner, and cracks are formed in it, that the icebergs disappear and the sea gradually disappears. White bears are shown on the island less often, seals prefer to stay in the open sea, since the shores are no longer floating on which you can relax. Hunting and fisheries become a risky activity, traditional foods fall on the table more and less. The houses built on the simplicity of soil begin to give precipitate, door and window openings are deposited.

Old men in Sax Harbor remember, as in his youth, they arranged on the ice race on dog sledding in July. Now in July, young people come out in the sea on boats.

Climate warming affects both Eskimos health. More intensive solar radiation causes skin diseases. Canadian Eskimos are deprived of the foundations of their traditional culture. Many of them are going to leave from Sax Harbor, believing that the village has no future.

Such trends will continue throughout the 21st century and further. In some areas, Africa will increase the frequency and intensity of droughts as a result of reduction of precipitation. In many Asian countries, an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones and the rise of the sea will lead to the flooding of large agricultural areas, as a result there will be problems with the supply of people with food. Serious difficulties with drinking water will arise in Australia and New Zealand due to an increase in the duration of the arid season. At a significant part of Europe will increase the risk of flooding. In Latin America, both floods and droughts will become more frequent. In North America, the rise of the sea will aggravate soil erosion on the coast. The risk of storms will increase in Florida and throughout atlantic coast America.

Brown fog - the consequences of global warming

In experiment timeconducted in 1999, over the tropical part of the Indian ocean was taken by samples of atmospheric air. Studies have shown that brown fog formed over larger territory Asia during the dry tropical season can have a serious impact on the health of people. It is a mixture of pollutants, mainly soot, sulfates, nitrates, organic particles, mineral dust and ash, resulting from burning fossil fuels and household waste. This mixture reduces the volume by 10% sunlightreaching the surface of the Indian Ocean, spreading thousands of kilometers from the initial sources of pollution.

Brown fog covers the territory of up to 10 million square kilometers. Scientists are convinced that it is formed over a significant part of the Asian continent, where more than half of the population of the globe lives. Currently, it is planned to create a network of monitoring stations for Asian countries to study the composition of the fog.

For human activity, climate change will also lead to serious negative consequences. Reducing yield in most tropical, subtropical and moderate latitudes, flood growth, lack of drinking water, incidence growth, including cholera and malaria, are the consequences of global warming.

The ability to adapt to climate change depends on the welfare of the country. Obviously, the most vulnerable to the poorest countries will be the most vulnerable. They are right to demand from developed countries responsible for a significant part of greenhouse gas emissions, adopting decisive measures aimed at reducing the negative consequences of climate change.

Claus Topfer, UNEP Executive Director considers it necessary to realize the seriousness of the changes to which the economies of industrialized countries led and foresee them. It is important to help the most vulnerable ecosystems adapt to new climatic conditions. According to Claus Topfer, governments are already required to take these new conditions in the long-term planning of economic development of states.

Ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

In December 1997, at a meeting in Kyoto (Japan), dedicated to the global climate change, delegates from more than one hundred sixty countries were adopted, which binds developed countries to reduce CO2 emissions. The Kyoto Protocol obliges thirty-eight industrialized countries to reduce CO2 emissions by 5% of the 1990 level 2008-2012:

European Union There must be reduced CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases by 8%.

USA is 7%.

Japan is 6%.

The protocol provides for the cooting system for greenhouse gas emissions. Its essence is that each of the countries (as long as this applies only to thirty-eight countries, which have committed themselves to reduce emissions), receives permission to release a certain amount of greenhouse gases. It is assumed that some countries or companies will exceed the quota of emissions. In such cases, these countries or companies will be able to buy the right to additional emissions from those countries or companies whose emissions are less than the highlighted quota. Thus, it is assumed that the main goal is to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases in the next 15 years by 5% - will be performed.

Nevertheless, negotiations on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are very difficult. First of all, the conflict exists at the level of officials and business on the one hand and the non-governmental sector - on the other. Non-governmental environmental organizations believe that the agreement achieved does not solve the problem, since a five percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is not enough to stop warming, and urge to reduce emissions at least 60%. In addition, the conflict exists at the level of states. Developing countries such as India and China, which make a significant contribution to the pollution of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, were present at the meeting in Kyoto, but did not sign the agreement. Developing countries in general, the environmental initiatives of industrial states perceive alertness. The arguments are simple: a) the main pollution with the greenhouse gas is carried out by developed countries and b) tightening control over the industrial countries, as it will restrain the economic development of developing countries. In any case, the problem of global climate warming - bright example What mechanisms are sometimes incorporated into the environmental problem. Components such as scientific uncertainty, the economy and policies often play a key role in this process.

The third IPCC Working Group studied the possibility of mitigating the effects of climate change, directed, first of all to limit the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. It was found that the most important measures are to increase energy efficiency, efficient use of natural gas, as well as the use of energy sources containing low carbon concentration, such as biomass or other types of renewable energy sources. Experts believe that a combination of such measures may be due to the annual reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the amount of 3.6-5 billion tons in the carbon equivalent (about 43 - 60% of modern emissions).

Discussion of global climate change, also called global warming, can be very complex. Fortunately, this problem can be explained quite simple. Here are the basic information that you need to know about climate change:

Warm Earth and Oceans

The climate was heated and cooled many times during the geological history of the Earth. However, the global increase in the average temperature we observed in recent decadesIt became relatively fast and fairly significant. This leads to more warm temperatures Air in the atmosphere, on land and in water almost all of our planet.

Less ice and smaller snow

The temperature rise led to an increase in the melting of most world glaciers. In addition, the ice covers of Greenland and Antarctica lose volume, and the sea ice covers an increasing part of the Arctic, and significantly thinned. Winter snow cover Most districts become weaker. Sea levels grow like due to melting ice and due to the fact that more warm water It takes more space.

Less predictable weather

Although the term "climate" refers to long-term statistics on many aspects of temperature and precipitation, the weather is more directly phenomenon, and this is what we feel in everyday life. Global change Climate transforms our experience of weather events in different ways, depending on where we live. General changes include more frequent and strong rains, regular winter thaw or constant droughts.

Greenhouse effect

Human activity distinguishes many gases in the atmosphere creating a greenhouse effect. Garnik gases are contained sunny energywhich was reflected ground surface. Then this warmly redirected towards the Earth, increasing the temperature. Most of the observed warming is caused by these gases.

How is greenhouse gas formed?

The most important greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide and methane. They are available in the atmosphere in the mining, processing and combustion of fossil fuels (such as coal, oil and natural gas). Even these gases are released when we cut out, because the trees absorb the harmful CO2, as well as in some types of agricultural activities.

The consequences of global warming

The effects of global warming include more frequent coastal floods, anomalous heatExtreme amounts of precipitation, lack of food security and vulnerability in cities. The effects of global warming are felt (and will be felt) in different ways different parts World. The global climate change, as a rule, affects those who have no economic to develop ways to adapt to change.

Of course, climate change affects not only people, but also to the rest. Global warming has little positive consequences. Profit in agriculture, often mentioned as positive, cannot compensate for the problems of pests (including invasive species), droughts and harsh weather events.

We can reduce the problem of global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We can also capture carbon dioxide, the most common greenhouse gas, from the atmosphere and safely store it on Earth. In addition, transport and agriculture should be investing in infrastructure, to adapt to the inevitable changes caused by global warming.

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Hello!This The article will be on climate change. I think you will be interested in how the climate changed on earth throughout its history.

Unusual weather phenomena, which in recent decades are observed around the world, suggest that humanity stands on the threshold of a global catastrophe.

On our planet, the climate constancy has never been distinguished, and has repeatedly changed throughout the history of the Earth.

Study of fossils I. mountain breeds It made it possible to get information about climatic conditions on Earth in the distant past.

For example, the presence in the depths of Antarctica (more about this mainland) coal layers, says that in this ice desert once reigned warm. After all, coal is formed from the remains of plants that are terribly developed in the tropics.

Also, samples of rocks indicate that part of Australia, southeast South America And South Africa, 300 million years ago covered huge ice shields.

The data that was obtained in the study of fossils, and which relate to climate change, confirm the theory of the continent drift.

In other words, the scientists today believe that when changing the provisions of land parts, climatic conditions change.

But the drift of the continents (in more detail about the drift of the continents) is a slow process and does not explain the cause of the last glacial period, which began 1.8 million years ago, and then the world map differed not much from the present.

Also, this theory does not explain the serious climate change that occurred in the last 10,000 years after the end of the ice age.

In particular, the drift of the continents is not directly related to unusual weather phenomenawhich are registered all over the world in the period 1970-80s.

Post declaration.

Weather in the northern hemisphere, in the glacial period, was not always cold. Periods of cooling (ice shields moved from the polar region to the south) alternated with warm periods (ice melted, retreating north).

About 10,000 years ago, the last ice age ended. Studying the annual rings of the trunks and the content of pollen various treesThe scholars found that the rapid climate warming was first observed.

The ice melted and, accordingly, the ocean level rose, and many land plots turned out to be flooded. So, about 7500 years ago, the British Islands were cut off from Europe (more about this part of the world).

Climate Western Europe, about 7,000 years ago, was the warmer today. The average temperatures of the winter months were approximately 1 ° C above, and summer months - 2-3 ° C higher than today.

Therefore, the snow border (the lower boundary of the eternal snow) was about 300 m higher than now.

The climate of North-West Europe, about 5,000 years ago, has become land and cooler. And sugar in those times was savanna (steppe) with many lakes and rivers.

Fur changes.

The colder and wet weather in North-Western Europe was established approximately 3,000 years ago. Alps Valley were covered with glaciers. In the lakes raised the water level, and extensive swamps appeared. Sugar turned into a desert.

Over the past 2000 years, information on changing weather conditions is obtained from historical documents. And recently, they use the data that were obtained when taking deep-water cores (cylindrical columns of rocks) and drilling wells in ice shields.

So it became known that between 400 and 1200. n. e. In North-West Europe, he reigned warm, harder and relatively clear weather. And in England, grapes.

In the XIII - XIV centuries. The following cooling happened. In winter, rivers such as Thames and Danube were covered with a thick layer of ice, which rarely happens these days. India due to lack monsoon winds, suffered from summer droughts, and in the south-west of the present United States (in more detail about this country) was extremely dry weather.

"Small Ice Age" Europe survived from about 1550 to 1880. Then the temperature dropped to a minimum.

Last 100 years.

The climate after 1880 gradually became warmer until 1940-1950, when an average indicators were reduced by about 0.2-0.3 ° C.

Also, along with this, there were changes in the global distribution of precipitation, which are noticeable to move climatic zones (about climatic zones in more detail) in the direction of North-South.

Obviously, the reason for increasingly stronger droughts in the zone of the Sahel, has become a minor displacement of subtropical high-pressure regions (which are also called "horse latitudes").

In the countries of Equatorial Africa, precipitation increased, which was also connected with this. So, in Lake Victoria began to increase the water level, and this threatened the flooding of coastal settlements.

Based on the observing global cooling, in the mid-1970s, scientists concluded that a new ice age is coming.

Scientists have believed that the last 10,000 years could be interledstial. But, meteorological stations In the whole world, during 1970-1980, the increase in average monthly temperatures was recorded.

But by the end of the 1980s. It became obvious that since 1880, the average monthly temperatures actually increased by about 0.5 ° C.

All this was accompanied by unusual weather conditions, including the early arrival of spring, soft winters, faster summer, drought and at times strong storms. All this indicates that the climate is warmer on Earth.

Many scientists believe that all these changes are associated with the pollution of the atmosphere.

Volcanic ash.

What are the causes of climate change? On this occasion, there are many different theories, but the scholars agreed that none of these theories explains all the many changes in the weather.

The continent drift, as such, does not have a short-term influence on weather conditions, but its consequences (volcanic activity, for example), of course, can change them.

For example, in 1883, after the strongest eruption of the Volcano Krakatau, the entire planet was shrouded with volcanic dust. This contributed to a decrease in the amount of solar radiation, which reached the earth's surface.

In 1982, in Mexico, as a result of an eruption of El Chicon volcano, a huge cloud of dust was thrown into the stratosphere. The mass of this cloud is presumably 16 million tons.

Less than solar heat pierced to the surface of the earth, but as far as the amount of heat has become less, the opinions of scientists have separated.

But it seems obvious that when the period of intensive volcanic activity occurs, the surface of the planet is cooled, this is due to the accumulation of heat clouds.

In the period from 1750 to 1900. Watched high volcanic activityWhat could be the cause of the "small glacial period".

Other theories concern solar activity. His energy provides moving air mass Planets and actively affects the climate.

Some scientists believe that the main changes in global climate can be caused by fluctuations in solar permanent (the amount of solar radiation, which enters the atmosphere).

The slope of the earth's axis.

The basis of this theory is the change in the angle of inclination of the earth's axis to the plane of the orbit of rotation around the Sun. It is known that the earth axis is tilted at the orbit plane at an angle of 23.5 °. But it is also known that this angle due to precession - the slow movement of the axis of the rotation of the earth (more about earthly rotation) in a circular cone, changes.

The greater the angle of inclination, the more sharp differences between the winter and summer seasons. Based on the recent calculations of scientists, the change in the inclination of the earth's axis in combination with the changes in the earth orbits of the Earth could significantly affect the climate.

Human intervention in nature is considered one of the main climate change factors.

Greenhouse gases.

A constant increase in the content in the atmosphere of carbon dioxide is another factor in climate change. Carbon dioxide call "greenhouse". It acts as greenhouse glasses - i.e. she passes the heat of the sun through the atmosphere, and prevents the return of excessively into open space.

The thermal balance on Earth has always helped to support.

But with increasing the number of greenhouse gases, the atmosphere is delayed increasingly emanating from the radiation surface, and this inevitably leads to the fact that the temperature grows.

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere until 1850 was about 280 parts per million. This figure has increased to about 345 to 1989. And by the middle of the XXI century, a concentration of about 400-600 parts per million is predicted.

Possible consequences.

What happens if the amount of carbon dioxide will continue to grow? There is such an opinion that if the content of this gas doubles, this will lead to an increase in average temperatures by 6 ° C, which, in turn, of course, will have very serious consequences for the planet.

Probably carbon dioxide is the reason for approximately 2/3 increasing global climate warming over the past 100 years. But here other gases play their role.

Methane, for example, which is formed when placing vegetation. It takes 25 times more heat than carbon dioxide. Scientists believe that about 15% of temperature growth gives methane, and another 8% accounted for the share of artificial gases - chlorinated and fluorinated hydrocarbons (CFCs).

CFC.

CFCs are gases that are used in aerosol cartridges, refrigerators and solvents for detergents. They are also used in the heat insulating foam.

Although they are found in small quantities, CFCs have a significant impact on warming, as they capture 25,000 times more heat than carbon dioxide.

In addition, CFCs destroy the ozone layer, at an altitude of 15-35 km above the ground surface. Our planet protects a thin ozone layer. He is delayed most Dangerous ultraviolet solar radiation. And the fall into the atmosphere of CFCs led to the depletion of this layer.

Scientists in the early 1980s. Over Antarctic found " ozone hole", And at the end of the same decade above the northern Arctic Ocean There was a hole smallest sizes.

The depletion of the ozone layer contributes not only to global climate warming, but also enhances harmful effects Ultraviolet radiation, which threatens very serious consequences for everything alive on earth.

Forecasts.

Increase temperature around the world by 0.5 ° C for the last 100 years at first glance, a trifle. But many scientists believe that the real magnitude of global warming is hidden by a decrease in temperatures caused by other factors, such as volcanic ash or dust of anthropogenic deserts.

While the exact climate change forecasts are impossible. The reason for this is insufficient environmental and meteorological monitoring.

But most scientists agree that with all the importance of continuing scientific research, There are already many evidence of global warming, and urgent measures must be taken to avoid the catastrophic consequences for the planet as a whole and for all forms of life on Earth.

These climate change occurred on our planet for her story. The Earth has seen several "glacial periods", then warming, which naturally affected life. And now we are again standing on the threshold of new climate change, and when and how it happens, we do not know, we can only expect ...