- This is set during the XX-XXI centuries. Direct instrumental observations global and regional climate warming under the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors.
There are two points of view that determine the main causes of global climate warming.
According to the first point of view , post-industrial warming (increasing the average global temperature over the past 150 years by 0.5-0.7 ° C) is a natural process and amplitude and speed comparable to those parameters of temperature fluctuations that took place in certain intervals of Holocene and Latelennikye. It is argued that the fluctuation of temperature and variations in the concentration of greenhouse gases into a modern climatic era do not exceed the amplitude of the variability of the values \u200b\u200bof climatic parameters that took place in the history of the Earth over the past 400 thousand years.
Second point of view Most researchers adhere to the global climate warming with anthropogenic accumulation of greenhouse gases in the carbon dioxide atmosphere CO 2, methane CH 4, nitrogen pump N 2 o, ozone, freons, tropospheric ozone about 3, as well as some other gases and vapor water. Contribution to the greenhouse effect (in%) of carbon dioxide - 66%, methane - 18, freons - 8, oxide - 3, the remaining gases - 5%. According to the data, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the air increased from pre-industrial time (1750): CO 2 from 280 to almost 360 ppmv, CH 4 from 700 to 1720 ppmv, a n 2 ° C about 275 to almost 310 ppmv. The main source of CO 2 are industrial emissions. At the end of the XX century. Humanity szhigallo annually 4.5 billion tons of coal, 3.2 billion tons of oil and petroleum products, as well as natural gas, peat, combustible shale and firewood. All this turned into carbon dioxide, the content of which in the atmosphere increased from 0.031% in 1956 to 0.035% in 1992 and continues to grow.
Emissions into the atmosphere and other greenhouse gas - methane increased dramatically. Methane until the beginning of the XVIII century. There were concentrations close to 0.7 ppmv, but over the past 300 years it has been observed at first slow, and then accelerating growth. Today, the growth rate of CO 2 concentration is 1.5-1.8 ppmv / year, and the concentrations of CH 4 - 1.72 PPMV / year. The growth rate of the concentration of N 2 O is an average of 0.75 ppmv / year (for the period 1980-1990). The sharp warming of the global climate began in the last quarter of the XX century, which in the boreal regions affected the amount of frosty winters. The average temperature of the surface layer of air over the past 25 years has increased by 0.7 ° C. In the Equatorial zone, it has not changed, but the closer to the poles, the warming is noticeable. The temperature of the ice water in the area of \u200b\u200bthe North Pole increased by almost 2 ° C, as a result of which the ice pickup began. Over the past hundred years, the average water temperature has risen almost one degree Celsius. However, the bulk of this warming fell for the period until the end of the 1930s. Then, from about 1940 to 1975, a decrease was observed by approximately 0.2 ° C. Since 1975, the temperature again began to rise (the maximum increase in 1998 and 2000). Global climate warming is manifested in the Arctic 2-3 times stronger than the rest of the planet. If the current trends persist, after 20 years, due to the reduction of the ice coating, the Hudson Bay may become unsuitable for habitat of polar bears. And by the middle of the century, navigation along the Northern Seaway may increase to 100 days a year. Now it lasts about 20 days. Studies of the main characteristics of the climate over the past 10-15 years have shown that this period is the warmest and wet not only in the last 100 years, but also in the last 1000 years.
Factors that really define global climate change are:
- solar radiation;
- earth orbital parameters;
- tectonic movements, changing the ratio of the area of \u200b\u200bthe water surface of the Earth and Sushi;
- the gas composition of the atmosphere and, above all, the concentration of greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide and methane;
- the transparency of the atmosphere, changing the albedo of the Earth due to volcanic eruptions;
- technogenic processes, etc.
Forecasts for global climate change in the XXI century. Show the following.
Air temperature. According to an ensemble of forecast models of the IPCC (intergovernmental group of climate change experts), the average global climate warming will be 1.3 ° C to the middle of the XXI century. (2041-2060) and 2.1 ° C to its end (2080-2099). In Russia in different seasons, the temperature will change in fairly wide limits. Against the background of the overall global warming, the largest increase in surface temperature in the XXI century. It will be in winter in Siberia and the Far East. Increasing the temperature along the coast of the Arctic Ocean will be 4 ° C in the middle of the XXI century. and 7-8 ° C at its end.
Precipitation. According to an ensemble of IPCC models MOCAO, the average estimates of global growth of average annual precipitation are 1.8% and 2.9%, respectively, for the middle and end of the XXI century. The average annual growth of precipitation throughout Russia will significantly exceed these global changes. In many Russian waterboards, precipitation will increase not only in winter, but also in the summer. In the warm season, the growth of precipitation will be noticeably smaller and will be observed mainly in the northern regions, in Siberia and the Far East. In the summer, predominantly convective precipitations will increase, which indicates the possibility of increasing the repeatability of shower and the associated extreme weather modes. In the summer in the southern regions of the European territory of Russia and in Ukraine, the amount of precipitation will decrease. In winter, the share of liquid sediments will increase in the European part of Russia, and the amount of solid will increase in Eastern Siberia and in Chukotka. As a result, the mass of snow accumulated over the winter in the West and the south of Russia and, accordingly, the additional accumulation of snow in Central and Eastern Siberia will decrease. At the same time, for the number of days with precipitation, there will be an increase in their variability in the XXI century. compared to the XX century. Significantly increase the contribution of the strongest precipitation.
Water balance in soil. When climate warming, together with increasing rainfall, the heat of the sushi surface increases in the warm season, which will lead to a noticeable decrease in the moisture content of the active layer of the soil and flow throughout the territory under consideration. In terms of precipitation and evaporation calculated for the modern climate and climate of the XXI century, it is possible to determine the total change in the moisture content of the soil layer and the drain, which, as a rule, have the same sign (i.e., with a decrease in soil moisture, a decrease in total Stoke and vice versa). In the regions free from snow cover, the trend towards a decrease in soil moisture content will be found in the spring and becomes more visible throughout Russia.
River stock. The growth of annual amounts of precipitation with global climate warming will lead to a noticeable increase in the river flow on most of the waterborns, except only the catchment of southern rivers (Dnipro - Don), on which the annual stock by the end of the XXI century. It will decrease by about 6%.
The groundwater. With global warming on the HS (at the beginning of the XXI century) any significant changes in the supply of groundwater compared to modern conditions will not happen. In most of the country, they will not exceed ± 5-10% and only in part of the territory of Eastern Siberia, they can reach + 20-30% of the current norm of groundwater resources. However, by this period there will be a tendency in an increase in the underground runoff in the north and its decrease in the south and south-west, which is well consistent with modern trends noted on prolonged observation ranks.
Cryolitozone. According to forecasts, made using five different models of climate change, in the next 25-30 years, the "permafrost" area can be reduced by 10-18%, and by the middle of century by 15-30%, while its border will move to the northeast 150-200 km. The depth of seasonal pulling will increase everywhere, on average by 15-25%, and on the Arctic coast and in separate areas of Western Siberia to 50%. In Western Siberia (Yamal, Gydan), the temperature of frozen soils will rise by an average of 1.5-2 ° C, C -6 ... -5 ° C to -4 ... -3 ° C, and the danger of the formation of high-temperature frozen soils even in areas Arctic. In the degradation areas of the "Eternal Merzlot" in the southern peripheral zone, the melting of the islands of the marzlot will occur. Since here frozen stratum have a small capacity (from the first meters to several tens of meters), during the order of several decades it is possible to completely pull the majority of the islands of the marzlot. In the coldest northern zone, where the "Eternal Merzlot" lays more than 90% of the surface, it will mainly increase the depth of seasonal pulling. Here there may also be large islands of non-exclusive pulling, mainly under water bodies, with a separation of the roof of the marbles from the surface and maintain it in deeper layers. The intermediate zone will be characterized by intermittent spread of frozen rocks, the closure of which will decrease in the warming process, and the depth of seasonal pulling to grow.
Global climate change in land will have a significant impact on the main sectors of the economy.
Agriculture. Climate change will lead to a decrease in potential yield in most tropical and subtropical regions. With the growth of the middle global temperature, more than a few degrees will decrease in medium latitudes (which will not be able to be compensated by changes in high latitudes). First of all, dry lands will suffer. The increase in the concentration of CO 2 could potentially be a positive factor, but most likely it will be more complicated by secondary negative effects, especially where agriculture is conducted extensive methods.
Forestry. The estimated climate change for the period of 30-40 years is in the range of permissible changes in the growing conditions of wood flora in natural forests. However, the expected climatic changes may disrupt the established course of relationships between woody rocks at the stage of natural resumption of forests after cutting, fires, foci of diseases and pests. The mediated exposure to climate change on wood rocks, especially young, is an increase in the frequency of short-term extreme weather conditions (heavy snowfall, hail, storms, droughts, late spring frosts, etc.). Global warming will cause an increase in the growth rate of rustic rocks of the order of 0.5-0.6% per year.
Water supply. With adverse trends in water supply in any case, a relatively small part of the territory of Russia will be covered, for the most part of it, the possibility for the water supply of any types of economic activity will be improved due to the unborn increase in water reservolation from underground water bodies and all major rivers.
Human health and life. The health and quality of life of the majority of Russians should improve. Climate comfort will increase and the favorable area of \u200b\u200bresidence area will increase. An employment potential will increase, there will be particularly noticeable changes in working conditions in the northern regions. Global warming in aggregate with rationalizing the development strategy of the Arctic will lead to an increase in the average life expectancy by the amount of one year. The greatest direct effect of thermal stress will be felt in the cities, where the most vulnerable (old men, children, people suffering from cardiological diseases, etc.) and low-income groups will be in the worst situation.
Sources: Estimates of global and regional climate change in the XIX-XXI centuries based on the IPA RAS model, taking into account the anthropogenic effects. Anisimov O.A. and others. Izv. RAS, 2002, FAO, 3, No. 5; Kovalevsky V.S., Kovalevsky Yu.V., Semenov S.M. The impact of climate change on groundwater and interconnected Wednesday // Geoecology, 1997, No. 5; Upcoming climate change, 1991.
As a result of the study of materials of meteorological observations performed in all parts of the globe, it has been established that the climate is not constant, but is subject to certain changes. Started at the end of the XIX century. Warming was particularly intensified in the 1920-30s, but then the slow cooling began, which ceased in the 1960s. Studies with geologists of sedimentary sediments of the earth's crust showed that many more climate changes took place in the past epochs. Since these changes were due to natural processes, they are called natural.
Along with natural factors, global climatic conditions has an all-growing effect. Human economic activity. This influence began to appear thousands of years ago, when in connection with the development of agriculture in arid areas, artificial irrigation was widely used. The propagation of agriculture in the forest zone also led to some climate change, as it required the cutting of forests on large spaces. However, climate change was mainly limited to changes in meteorological conditions only in the lower layer of air in those areas where significant economic activities were carried out.
In the second half of the XX century. Due to the rapid development of industry and the growth of energy-relatedness, the threats of climate change have arisen throughout the planet. Modern research has been established that the influence of anthropogenic activities on the global climate is related to the action of several factors, of which are the greatest importance:
- an increase in the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide, as well as some other gases entering the atmosphere during economic activities, which enhances the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere;
- an increase in the mass of atmospheric aerosols;
- increasing the amount of thermal energy generated in the process of economic activity entering the atmosphere.
The first of the indicated causes of anthropogenic climate change is the greatest value. Essence "" is as follows. The atmosphere contains in a certain concentration of "radiation-active" gases, which are of great importance to life on Earth, because they are delayed in the lower layers of the atmosphere. Without these gases, the temperature of the earth's surface would be approximately 33 ° C below. However, an increase in concentration greenhouse gases(carbon dioxide - C0 2, methane - CH 4, nitrogen pump - N, 0, chlorofluorocarbons, etc.) The earth's surface leads to the formation of a certain "gas curtain", which does not let excess infrared radiation from the surface of the Earth back into space as This must be with the normal concentration of these gases. As a result, a significant part of the energy remains in the surface layer, which causes warming at its surface itself.
The main contribution to warming makes carbon dioxide (65% of all sources). The increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is determined by the formation of C0 2 as a result of burning coal, petroleum products and other types of fuel. The flow of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is so great that the termination of this process in the coming decades is technically impreit. In addition, the amount of energy consumption in developing countries begins to grow rapidly. The gradual increase in the amount of CO, and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere already has a noticeable impact on the climate of the Earth, changing it towards warming. The general trend towards improving the global average temperature at the surface of the Earth is enhanced, which has already led to the XX century. to an increase in the average air temperature by 0.6 ° C.
As a result of a fourfold increase in the second half of the XX century. The volume of carbon compound emissions of the Earth's atmosphere began to heat up with increasing pace (Fig. 1). According to UN forecasts, the subsequent global increase in air temperature in the XXI century will be from 1.5 to 4 ° C.
Fig. 1. Changing the average annual air temperature in the land layer (1860-2000)
The following effects of global warming are predicted:
- increasing the level of the oceans, as a result of the melting of glaciers and polar ice (over the past 100 years, 10-25 cm), which, in turn, turns around the flooding of territories, displacement of the borders of swamps and low-rise areas, an increase in the salinity of water in the mouths of the rivers, as well as potential loss of human accommodation;
- changing the amount of precipitation (the amount of precipitation increases in the northern part of Europe and decreases in southern);
- change of hydrological regime, quantity and quality of water resources;
- impact on environmental systems, rural and forest! Yuj economy (mixing climatic zones in the northern direction and migration of species of wild fauna, a change in seasonality of growth and productivity of land in rural and forestry).
All the above factors can have a catastrophic impact on the health of people, the economy and the society as a whole. The growing frequency of droughts and the subsequent crisis of agriculture increase the threat of hunger and social stability in some regions of the world. Difficulties with water supply in countries with a warm climate stimulate the spread of tropical and subtropical diseases. As trends in the warming of weather conditions become more changeable, and climatic natural disasters are more destructive. Increases damage caused by natural disasters by world economy (Fig. 2). Only in one 1998, he exceeded the damage caused by natural disasters for the entire 1980s., Tens of thousands of people died and about 25 million "ecological refugees" were forced to leave their homes.
Fig. 2. Economic damage caused by world economy, 1960-2000. (billion US dollars, annually)
At the end of the XX century. Humanity has come to understand the need to solve one of the most complex and extremely dangerous environmental problems associated with climate change, and in the mid-1970s. Active work began in this direction. At the World Climate Conference in Geneva (1979), the foundations of the World Climate Program were laid. In accordance with the UN General Assembly resolution on the protection of the global climate in the interests of the current and future generations, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) was adopted. The purpose of the Convention is to achieve the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in an atmosphere at a level that will not have a dangerous impact on the global climate system. Moreover, the solution of this task is to be carried out on time, sufficient for natural adaptation of ecosystems to climate change and allowing the threat to food production, as well as ensuring further economic development on a sustainable basis.
To reduce the threat of global warming, it is primarily necessary to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Most of these emissions occur as a result of burning fossil fuels, which continues to provide more than 75% of global energy. A rapidly increasing number of cars on the planet enhances the risk of further emissions. Stabilization of CO, in the atmosphere at a safe level is possible with a general decrease (about 60%) of the volume of greenhouse gas emissions causing global warming. This can help the further development of energy-saving technologies, wider use of renewable energy sources.
On the III conference of countries that have signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (RKIK) in Kyoto, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted to UNFCCC (1997), which recorded certain quantitative obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for industrialized countries and countries with economies in transition. At the time of signing the Kyoto Protocol, greenhouse gas emissions were distributed as follows: USA - 36.1%, EU countries - 25.0, Russia - 17.4, Japan - 8.5, countries of Eastern Europe - 7.4, Canada - 3, 3, Australia and New Zealand - 2.3% of global emissions. The implementation of the Kyoto Protocol could lead to significant progress, as the Protocol obliges industrialized countries to go on emission limitations and reduce the total greenhouse gas emissions in the period 2008-2012. Average by 5%, compared with the level of 1990, the achievement of the first group of objectives set in the Kyoto Protocol is considered by the UN only as the beginning of the movement towards what needs to be done to slow down the global warming process, and in the future - to reduce the risk of global Climate change.
High hopes of the world community pinned on the 15th Conference of the UN Climate Change (Copenhagen, 2009). On the eve of its discovery, new data on the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions on individual countries were published: China - 20.8%; USA - 19.9; Russia-5.5; India-4.6; Japan-4.3; Germany - 2.8; Canada - 2.0; United Kingdom - 1.8; South Korea - 1.7; Iran - 1.6% relative to the cumulative C02 emission into the atmosphere. At the conference, recommendations were developed on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and annual allocations to small states of $ 100 billion to financing environmental programs until 2020. However, disagreements between developed and developing countries did not allow to adopt a legally binding document to reduce harmful emissions.
In Russia, a climate doctrine was developed and approved, in which the state declares that it is ready to allocate resources for systematic observations of the climate, as well as fundamental applied research in the field of climate and related areas of science. Russia as much as possible concentrates efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increasing their absorption by absorbers and drives. It is assumed to achieve this in the consistent implementation of energy-saving technologies and alternative energy sources. Russia has committed itself to the further mitigation of the anthropogenic effect on the climate: by 2020, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 25% with respect to 1990 (EU countries - by 20%).
Studying climatic changes
Plant residues, relief and glacial sediments, rocks and fossils contain information on significant fluctuations in average temperatures and precipitation over geological time. Climate change can also be studied on the basis of the analysis of annual rings of wood, alluvial deposits, bottom precipitation of oceans and lakes and organic peatlands. During the last few million years, the climate has happened in general, and now, judging by the continuous reduction of polar ice sheets, we, apparently, are at the end of the ice age.
Climatic changes for the historic period can sometimes be reconstructed on the basis of information on indirect, floods, abandoned settlements and migration of peoples. Continuous series of air temperature measurements are available only for meteorological stations located mainly in the northern hemisphere. They cover only a little more than one century. These data indicate that over the past 100 years, the average temperature on the globe increased by almost 0.5 ° C. This change occurs not smoothly, but jumps like - sharp warming replaced with stable stages.
Specialists of different areas of knowledge proposed numerous hypotheses to explain the causes of climate change. Some believe that climatic cycles are determined by periodic fluctuations in solar activity with an interval of about 11 years. Changes in the form of the Earth orbit, which led to a change in the distance between the Sun and the Earth could be influenced for annual and seasonal temperatures. Currently, the Earth is closest to the Sun in January, but approximately 10,000 years ago, it was held in July. According to another hypothesis, depending on the angle of inclination of the earth's axis, the amount of solar radiation arrived on the Earth was changed, which influenced the overall circulation of the atmosphere. It is not excluded that the polar axis of the Earth occupied another position. If the geographical poles were on the latitude of the modern equator, then the climatic belts are shifted, respectively.
Geographical theories explain the long-term fluctuations in the climate with the movements of the earth's crust and the change in the situation of the mainland and oceans. In the light of the global plate tectonics over the geological time, the mainland moved. As a result, their position was changed in relation to the oceans, as well as in latitude, etc.
The large masses of dust and gases entering the atmosphere during volcanic eruptions, episodically become an obstacle on the path of solar radiation and led to the cooling of the earth's surface. Increasing the concentration of some gases in the atmosphere aggravates the overall trend towards warming.
Effect of climate on life and economic activity of people
A person living in a certain locality gets used to, adapts (from lat. Adaptation is a device) to the conditions of the environment, including climatic features of the area. His clothing, shoes, food, dwelling, classes - the result of this adaptation. It has a significant impact on economic activities.
Adaptation is necessary for a person when changing climatic conditions.
The geological age of our planet is approximately 4.5 billion years. During this period, the Earth has changed radically. The composition of the atmosphere, the mass of the planet itself, the climate - at the beginning of the existence everything was completely different. A hot bowl very slowly became as we used to see him now. Textical plates faced, forming all new mountain systems. On the gradually cooling planet formed the sea and oceans. The continents appeared and disappeared, their outlines and dimensions changed. Earth began to rotate slowly. The first plants appeared, and then life itself. Accordingly, over the past billions of years on the planet there were cardinal changes in moisture proof, heat proof and atmospheric composition. Climate change occurred throughout the existence of the Earth.
Epoch of Golocene
Golotocene is part of a quaternary period in other words, it is an era that began approximately 12 thousand years ago and continues at the moment. Holocene began with the end of the ice age, and since then the climate change on the planet went towards global warming. This era is often called interglacial, as the entire climatic history of the planet has already had several glacial periods.
The last global cooling occurred about 110 thousand years ago. About 14 thousand years ago, warming began, gradually embraced the entire planet. Glaciers covered at that time most of the northern hemisphere began to melt and collapse. Naturally, all this happened not overnight. During a very long period, the planet was shaken by strong temperature fluctuations, the glaciers were attacked, then retreated again. All this influenced the level of the world's ocean.
Periods of Golocene
During numerous studies, scientists decided to divide the Holocene for several time periods depending on the climate. Approximately 12-10 thousand years ago, glaciers were gone, postlegdniki. In Europe, it began to disappear Tundra, it was changed by birch, pine and taiga forests. This time is customary to be called the Arctic and subarctic period.
Then followed the boreal era. Taiga pushed the tundra more on the north. In southern Europe, broad forest forests appeared. At this time, the climate was predominantly cool and dry.
Approximately 6 thousand years ago the Atlantic Epoch began, during which the air became warm and wet, much warmer modern. This period of time is considered the climatic optimum of all Golocene. Half was covered with birch forests. Europe has erupted a large variety of thermal-loving plants. At the same time, the length of moderate forests was much further north. On the shores of the Barents Sea grew darkness of domestic forests, and Taiga reached Cape Chelyuskin. There was a savanna on the site of modern Sahara, and the water level in the lake Chad was higher than the modern 40 meters.
Then the climate change occurred again. There was a cooling, which lasted about 2 thousand years. This period of time is called subborneal. Mountains in Alaska, Iceland, in the Alps acquired by glaciers. Landscape areas have shifted closer to the equator.
Approximately 2.5 thousand years ago, the last period of modern Golocene began - subatlantic. The climate of this era has become a cooler and wet. Peat swamps began to appear, Tundra began to gradually in the forest, and the forests were on the steppe. Approximately the 14th century began the cooling climate, which led to a small glacial period, which lasted until the middle of the 19th century. At that time, the invasions of glaciers in the mountain arrays of Northern Europe, Iceland, in Alaska and Andes were recorded. At different points of the globe, the climate has changed not synchronously. The reasons for the onset of the small glacial period remain unknown. According to scientists, the climate could change due to the increase in volcanic eruptions and reduce the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Start of meteorological observations
The first appeared at the end of the 18th century. Since that time, constant observations of climatic fluctuations are underway. It is possible to reliably say that warming, which began after a small glacial period, continues at the moment.
Since the end of the 19th century, the growth of the average global planet temperature is recorded. In the middle of the 20th century there was a slight cooling, which did not affect the climate as a whole. From the mid-70s it became warmer again. According to scientists, over the past century, the global earth temperature rose by 0.74 degrees. The greatest growth of this indicator was recorded in the last 30 years.
Climate change invariably affect the state of the world's ocean. The increase in global temperature leads to expansion of water, and hence the increase in its level. There are also changes in the distribution of precipitation, which, in turn, can influence the flow of rivers and glaciers.
According to observations, the World Ocean Level over the past 100 years has grown by 5 cm. Climate warming Scientists are associated with an increase in carbon dioxide concentration and a significant increase in greenhouse effect.
Climate-forming factors
Scientists have conducted many archaeological studies and concluded that the planet climate changed sharply. Many hypotheses on this was put forward. According to one of the opinions, if the distance between the land and the sun remains the same, as well as the speed of rotation of the planet and the angle of the axis, the climate will remain stable.
External climate change factors:
- The change in the radiation of the Sun leads to the transformation of solar radiation streams.
- Movement of tectonic plates affect the orography of sushi, as well as the level of the ocean and its circulation.
- The gas composition of the atmosphere, in particular the concentration of methane and carbon dioxide.
- Changing the tilt axis of the earth rotation.
- Changing the parameters of the orbit of the planet relative to the sun.
- Earth and space catastrophes.
Human activity and its influence on the climate
The reasons for climate change are related to the fact that humanity has interfere in nature throughout its existence. Cutting down forest arrays, flattening, etc. result in transformations of humidity and wind modes.
When people make changes to the surrounding nature, having a swamp, creating artificial water bodies, cutting out the forest or disembarking new, building the city, etc., the microclimate changes. The forest strongly affects wind regime, on which it depends on how snow cover will fall as far as the soil freezes.
Green plantings in cities reduce the effect of solar radiation, increase air humidity, reduce temperature differences in day and evening, reduce the dustiness of the air.
If people cut down the forests on the hills, then in the future it leads to a soil for soil. Also a decrease in the number of trees reduces the global temperature. However, this means an increase in the concentration in the air of carbon dioxide, which is not only not absorbed by trees, but also additionally stands out when wood decomposition. All this compensates for the decrease in global temperature and leads to its increase.
Industry and its influence on the climate
The reasons for climate change lies not only in the overall warming, but also in the activities of mankind. People increased the concentration in the air of such substances such as carbon dioxide, nitrogen rushing, methane, tropospheric ozone, chlorofluorocrium. All this ultimately leads to a growing greenhouse effect, and consequences may be irreversible.
Daily, industrial enterprises are thrown into the air with many dangerous gases. Universally used transport that polluting the atmosphere with its exhaust. Many carbon dioxide is formed when oil and coal burning. Even agriculture inflicts considerable damage to the atmosphere. Approximately 14% of all emissions fall on this sphere. This is a plowing of fields, and burning waste, burning savanna, manure, fertilizer, animal husbandry, etc. The greenhouse effect helps maintain the temperature balance on the planet, but the activities of humanity enhances this effect at times. And it can lead to a catastrophe.
Why follow climate change?
97% of the world's climatologists are confident that in the last 100 years everything is strongly transformed. And the main problem of climate change is anthropogenic activity. It is impossible to reliably say how serious this situation is, but there are many reasons for concern:
UN Convention
Governments of most countries of the planet are seriously fear of what the consequences of climate change may be. For more than 20 years ago, an international treaty was created - a climate change framework convention. It addresses all possible measures to prevent global warming. Now the Convention has been ratified by 186 countries, including Russia. All participants are diagnosed into 3 groups: industrialized with economic development and developing countries.
The UN Convention on Climate Change is fighting for a decrease in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and further stabilization of indicators. It can be achieved or an increase in the design of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or a decrease in their emission. For the first option, you need a large number of young forests that will absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and the second option will be achieved if we reduce the consumption of fossil fuels. All ratified countries agree that there is a global climate change in the world. The UN is ready to do everything possible to mitigate the consequences of the impending strike.
Many countries participating in the Convention concluded that joint projects and programs will be the most effective. Currently there are more than 150 such projects. Officially, 9 such programs work in Russia, and unofficially more than 40.
At the end of 1997, the Climate Change Convention signed the Kyoto Protocol, which registed that countries with economies in transition undertakes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The protocol is ratified by 35 countries.
Our country also participated in the implementation of this Protocol. Climate change in Russia led to the fact that the amount of natural disasters increased twice. Even if we consider that boreal forest arrays are located in the state, they do not cope with all greenhouse gas emissions. Forest ecosystems should be improved and increased extensive measures to reduce emissions from industrial enterprises.
Forecasts of global warming
The essence of climate change in the last century consists in global warming. According to the worst forecasts, the further irrational activities of mankind can increase the temperature of the Earth to mark at 11 degrees. Climate change will be irreversible. The rotation of the planet will slow down, many species of animals and plants will die. The World Ocean level will rise so much that many islands and most of the coastal territories will be flooded. Gulf Stream will change its course, which will lead to a new small glacial period in Europe. Wide with widespread cataclysms, floods, tuning, hurricanes, droughts, tsunami, etc. will be happening. The melting of the ice of the Arctic and Antarctica will begin.
For humanity, the consequences will be disastrous. In addition to the need to survive in conditions of strong natural anomalies, people will have many other problems. In particular, the number of cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, psychological disorders will increase, outbursts of epidemics will begin. A sharp lack of food and drinking water will be felt.
What to do?
To avoid climate change consequences, first of all need to reduce the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Humanity should go to new sources of energy that should be low-carb and renewable. Sooner or later, in front of the world public, this question will be sharp, since the resource used now is mineral fuel - non-renewable. Some scientists will have to create new, more efficient technologies.
It is also necessary to reduce the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and only the restoration of the area of \u200b\u200bforest arrays can help with it.
It is required to apply maximum effort to stabilize global temperatures on Earth. But even if it does not succeed, humanity should try to achieve minimal effects of global warming.
Global climate changeO. Speranskaya, "Eco-Consent"
Gunnar Boy Olesen, Energy and Development Forum
In early 2001, a third report was published prepared by an intergovernmental group of climate change experts (IPCC). This report contains scientifically based facts of global warming, given an objective picture of the observed changes in the climatic system and the processes that are causing them.
Global warming carries significant, perhaps even catastrophic consequences for nature and man. This is a truly a global problem that affects all countries and regions. The reason for climate change lies both in the natural phenomena themselves, and caused anthropogenic factors leading to greenhouse gas emissions.
The preparation of the third report of the IPCC participated 123 of the author, more than 500 experts presented their materials, and more than 300 experts prepared suggestions and comments to the report that were taken into account in the final text. In addition to the main report published a brief brochure for government and public organizations.
Proved: The climate changes
The first working group of the IPCC found that the climate changes and becomes warmer. During the 20th century, the average annual temperature near the surface of the Earth increased by 0.6 ° C. XX century, perhaps became the warmest century of the past millennium, and the 90s - the warmest decade of all millennia.
Satellite data suggests that since the late 1960s, there has been a decrease in snow cover area by about 10%. Approximately 2 weeks decreased the duration of the existence of ice cover on rivers and lakes in medium and high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. There was a widespread retreat of mountain glaciers in non-polar districts. In the northern hemisphere, almost 10-15% declined the area of \u200b\u200bsea ice in spring and summer periods. Since the end of summer and before the beginning of the fall, the thickness of the sea ice decreased by 40%.
During the twentieth century, the average sea level rose by 0.1-0.2 m. In most areas of high and medium latitudes of the northern hemisphere, the amount of precipitation increased by 0.5-1%.
In the last decade, in some areas of Asia and Africa, the repeatability and intensity of the drought increased. Since the 1950s, they became more frequent, stable and intense such phenomena as El Niño.
Causes of climate change
The reaction of the climate system on anthropogenic effects occurs against the background of natural fluctuations in climate, the time scale of which is from several weeks to several centuries. All calculations carried out using global climate models, which take into account the observed growth of the concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosol, indicate a great contribution of anthropogenic factors into a change in the temperature of the earth's surface for the last four decades.
Obviously, warming over the past 50 years cannot be explained only by natural changes, however, it is well explained by the joint impact of anthropogenic and natural changes.
In many ways, climate change can be explained by increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Recall that the main greenhouse gases are CO2, methane, nitrogen sulfur hexafluoride and some gases of artificial origin (for example, freon). The concentration of all greenhouse gases is rapidly increasing, and CO2 concentration is currently higher than any other period over the past 420,000 years, and possibly higher than in the last 20 million years. So, according to the IPCC, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in the period from 1750 to 2000 increased by 31%. The increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere was approximately 0.4% per year for two past decades. In the 1990s, CO2 concentration increased by 0.2-0.8% per year.
Approximately 3/4 of the CO2 anthropogenic emission over the past 20 years is due to the burning of fossil fuels. The rest of the issue is associated with industrial processes, a change in land use and, especially, with a reduction in forest area. As follows from the IPCC report, the ocean and continents absorb half anthropogenic carbon dioxide.
Man continues to threaten the climate of the planet and herself
The impact of a person will continue to change the atmosphere and climate of the Earth in the twentieth century. Scientists have determined that if no measures have been taken to reduce CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases, then for the period from 1990 to 2100, the temperature at the surface of the Earth will rise by 1.5-1.8 ° C, and the increase in temperature on continents north of the equator will be significantly above.
It is likely that this will lead to an increase in the sea level of approximately 40 cm (albeit with a great error), an increase in the number of storms and other natural weather events, such as rains, which will lead to the flooding of significant territories. The caps of polar ice and glaciers on the vertices of the mountains will be reduced, with the exception of the Antarctic territory. In the Arctic districts (Siberia, Alaska, etc.), the melting of permafrost will begin. All this can lead to an additional emission of greenhouse gases and the growing greenhouse effect.
In the following centuries, climatic changes will continue, and if we do not reduce the role of the anthropogenic factor in this process, the consequences of global warming will be much worse. The sea level can rise to three meters and lead to the disappearance of the Gulf Stream.
According to the second working group of the IPCC, individual sections of nature are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Some of them can be completely destroyed. Such ecosystems include coral reefs, boreal and tropical forests, steppe swamps and natural meadows. According to the report submitted in the report, in the vast territories of Eastern Europe, the European part of Russia and the central part of Canada and California drops a much larger amount of precipitation in the form of rain than in the form of snow. Over the past decade, 67% of glaciers decreased in the Himalayas and the Tien Shan Mountains. Under the threat of disappearance - half of the glaciers Alps.
Eyewitnesses tell
A group of experts of the Canadian Institute of Perspective Development worked in the Polar Settle of Sax Harbor on the island of Bank for a whole year. In the diverting film, the residents of the village talk about the fact that the ice is getting thinner, and cracks are formed in it, that the icebergs disappear and the sea gradually disappears. White bears are shown on the island less often, seals prefer to stay in the open sea, since the shores are no longer floating on which you can relax. Hunting and fisheries become a risky activity, traditional foods fall on the table more and less. The houses built on the simplicity of soil begin to give precipitate, door and window openings are deposited.
Old men in Sax Harbor remember, as in his youth, they arranged on the ice race on dog sledding in July. Now in July, young people come out in the sea on boats.
Climate warming affects both Eskimos health. More intensive solar radiation causes skin diseases. Canadian Eskimos are deprived of the foundations of their traditional culture. Many of them are going to leave from Sax Harbor, believing that the village has no future.
Such trends will continue throughout the 21st century and further. In some areas, Africa will increase the frequency and intensity of droughts as a result of reduction of precipitation. In many Asian countries, an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones and the rise of the sea will lead to the flooding of large agricultural areas, as a result there will be problems with the supply of people with food. Serious difficulties with drinking water will arise in Australia and New Zealand due to an increase in the duration of the arid season. At a significant part of Europe will increase the risk of flooding. In Latin America, both floods and droughts will become more frequent. In North America, the rise of the sea will aggravate soil erosion on the coast. The risk of storms will increase in Florida and all over the Atlantic coast of America.
Brown fog - the consequences of global warming
During the experiment conducted in 1999, samples of atmospheric air took place over the tropical part of the Indian Ocean. Studies have shown that a brown fog that is formed over the larger territory of Asia during the dry tropical season can have a serious impact on the health of people. It is a mixture of pollutants, mainly soot, sulfates, nitrates, organic particles, mineral dust and ash, resulting from burning fossil fuels and household waste. This mixture reduces the volume of sunlight by 10%, reaching the surface of the Indian Ocean, spreading thousands of kilometers from the initial sources of pollution.
Brown fog covers the territory of up to 10 million square kilometers. Scientists are convinced that it is formed over a significant part of the Asian continent, where more than half of the population of the globe lives. Currently, it is planned to create a network of monitoring stations for Asian countries to study the composition of the fog.
For human activity, climate change will also lead to serious negative consequences. Reducing the yield in most tropical, subtropical and moderate latitudes, flood growth, lack of drinking water, incidence growth, including cholera and malaria, are the consequences of global warming.
The ability to adapt to climate change depends on the welfare of the country. Obviously, the most vulnerable to the poorest countries will be the most vulnerable. They are right to demand from developed countries responsible for a significant part of greenhouse gas emissions, adopting decisive measures aimed at reducing the negative consequences of climate change.
Claus Topfer, UNEP Executive Director considers it necessary to realize the seriousness of the changes to which the economies of industrialized countries led and foresee them. It is important to help the most vulnerable ecosystems adapt to new climatic conditions. According to Claus Topfer, governments are already required to take these new conditions in the long-term planning of economic development of states.
Ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
In December 1997, at a meeting in Kyoto (Japan), dedicated to the global climate change, delegates from more than one hundred sixty countries were adopted, which binds developed countries to reduce CO2 emissions. The Kyoto Protocol obliges thirty-eight industrialized countries to reduce CO2 emissions by 5% of the 1990 level 2008-2012:
The European Union must reduce CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases by 8%.
USA is 7%.
Japan is 6%.
The protocol provides for the cooting system for greenhouse gas emissions. Its essence is that each of the countries (as long as this applies only to thirty-eight countries, which have committed themselves to reduce emissions), receives permission to release a certain amount of greenhouse gases. It is assumed that some countries or companies will exceed the quota of emissions. In such cases, these countries or companies will be able to buy the right to additional emissions from those countries or companies whose emissions are less than the highlighted quota. Thus, it is assumed that the main goal is to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases in the next 15 years by 5% - will be performed.
Nevertheless, negotiations on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are very difficult. First of all, the conflict exists at the level of officials and business on the one hand and the non-governmental sector - on the other. Non-governmental environmental organizations believe that the agreement achieved does not solve the problem, since a five percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is not enough to stop warming, and urge to reduce emissions at least 60%. In addition, the conflict exists at the level of states. Developing countries such as India and China, which make a significant contribution to the pollution of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, were present at the meeting in Kyoto, but did not sign the agreement. Developing countries in general, the environmental initiatives of industrial states perceive alertness. The arguments are simple: a) the main pollution with the greenhouse gas is carried out by developed countries and b) tightening control over the industrial countries, as it will restrain the economic development of developing countries. In any case, the problem of global climate warming is a vivid example of which mechanisms sometimes included in the solution of the environmental problem. Components such as scientific uncertainty, the economy and policies often play a key role in this process.
The third IPCC Working Group studied the possibility of mitigating the effects of climate change, directed, first of all to limit the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. It was found that the most important measures are to increase energy efficiency, efficient use of natural gas, as well as the use of energy sources containing low carbon concentration, such as biomass or other types of renewable energy sources. Experts believe that a combination of such measures may be due to the annual reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the amount of 3.6-5 billion tons in the carbon equivalent (about 43 - 60% of modern emissions).
Global climate change, as now proved by the latest research, caused by human activity. The awareness of the severity of the situation gradually penetrates world public opinion. There is still the opportunity to soften the consequences, avoid the worst. The scientific community proposed to governments specific recommendations. Will they listen to the voice of scientists?
Global Climate Change Is Caused by The Activity Of A MAN AS IT IS PROVED By The Latest Research Now. Consciousness of Gravity of Situation IS Gradually Getting Into The World Public Opinion. There Is Still An Opportunity to Mitigate Effects, to Avoid The Worst. The Scientific Society Suggested Concrete Recommendations to the Government. Will Politicians Listen To the Voice of Scientists?
Collect dates blades,
And in Sakhar, the snow is nepractistic.
These are our physicists on betting
Split the ball on the contrary.
Such comic couplets sowed once student youth, hardly assuming that at the beginning of the XXI century. Global climate change will be recognized as the greatest danger, with which one ever faced humanity. Today, this problem more and more mastering the world. It is increasingly reminding the media and speak political figures. She dedicates scientific research and art films. For efforts to deepen and disseminate knowledge of the knowledge generated by humanity, the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded - it was divided by an intergovernmental team of UN experts, which was reflected in a series of fundamental scientific reports, and American Albert Mountains, former US Vice President, Champion Environmental protection, the creator of the famous documentary film "Uncomfortable True" is this passionate warning about the threat of global warming.
Challenge humanity
By now, the global scientific community has received irrefutable evidence of the age-old trend of global warming, which serves as an indicator of climate change on Earth. Over the past hundred years, the surface temperature of the atmosphere increased by 0.74 ° C. The average temperature in the northern hemisphere in the second half of the twentieth century. It was higher than for any 50-year period in the last 500 years and, probably, the highest in the last 1300 years.
The phenomenon of global warming is consistent with such confirmed by a huge array of empirical material of the phenomenon, as an increase in the world's ocean, melting of glaciers and polar ice shields (especially in the Arctic), reducing snow covered with snow and ice areas, increase the amount of precipitation in some regions (the eastern part North and South America, Northern Europe, North and Central Asia) and reduction in others, expanding dry zones (Africa, part of South Asia), more frequent tropical cyclones in North Atlantic, etc. Global warming and climate change in one way or another Extent affects the state of many natural ecosystems and thereby - on the state of the biosphere as a whole, on the biosphere conditions of human existence.
An intergovernmental group of climate change experts (IPCC), which includes up to 2500 experts from 130 countries, in submitted in 2007. The fourth assessment report states: global warming nempubimo and already irreversible. According to the IPCC forecast, by the end of the XXI century. When maintaining the current trends, the surface temperature can increase on the most reliable estimate by another 1.8-4.0 ° C (different scenarios), but more likely - from 2.9 to 6.4 ° C. This will entail an increase in climatic "shocks" and disasters - such as more frequent and extensive floods, flooding of low-row coastal zones in some regions, droughts and desertification - in others. That, in turn, will lead to a decrease in productivity in agriculture, especially in dry zones, the depletion of water supply resources, a sharp reduction in biodiversity, the spread of dangerous infectious diseases, deterioration due to all the conditions for the existence of a huge mass of people, especially in the poorest countries, and to the general Regress in the development of mankind throughout the XXI century.
Why is the rustle nature?
The most important results of the IPCC studies that have been reflected in the last report, it is the conclusion that the current climate change is observed. inspired by humanity . In this regard, experts are categorical: compared with the previous report (2001), they raised the degree of their confidence in the essential role of the anthropogenic factor with "probably" to "very likely" (or from 60 to 90%).
Until recently, many of these conclusions were challenged. Referred to natural factors as the main cause of global warming, that such phenomena was observed in the past. Now we can consider scientifically proven that at the present stage the role of an anthropogenic factor outweighs the possible "contribution" of natural sources of global warming. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, atmospheric reserves of CO 2 increased by third - There were no such growth rates for the previous 20 thousand years, at a minimum. The current level of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere exceeds the natural level observed over the past 650 thousand years.
The main reason for this is a large-scale use of hydrocarbon as sources of energy. The increase in the emission of carbon dioxide (the main component of greenhouse gases) was noticeable with the beginning of the industrial revolution in Europe, marked by the transition to widespread use of coal, and then, from the end of the XIX, the beginning of the twentieth centuries, increasingly inclusion in the energy balance of the world economy of oil and natural Gas. From the middle of the XIX century. An increase in the scale of emission of CO 2 strictly correlates with increasing GDP per capita.
These data leave soil for doubt and skepticism. "Five years ago, skepticism regarding the possible climate change was thriving fishery. Skeptics in climate change issues generously financed large companies, their opinions widely covered the media and carefully listened to some governments, they had an unnecessarily influence on public understanding of this problem. Today, every trustworthy climatologist believes that climate change is real, that it is seriously and associated with the emission of CO 2, "UN experts noted.
Attempts to deny the decisive role of the anthropogenic factor is untenable if only because it not only violates the established natural balance between the natural emissions of greenhouse gases and their absorption, but also acts as a "trigger" to increase natural emissions (for example, as a result of melting permafrost) and, In addition, leads to a reduction in the absorption capacity of the earth's surface (due to the information of forests, the surface contamination of the oceans, etc.). Therefore, we can talk about the joint action of both factors, among which the anthropogenic belongs today is a leading role.
Hydrocarbon raw materials for the coming decades remains the main source of energy. According to forecasts, oil consumption by 2025 will increase by no less than 50%, natural gas - by 70% and coal - by almost 60%. As for nuclear energy and renewable sources, their use will increase to a lesser extent and will still occupy a rather modest place - 5.3 and 7.6%, respectively. Fossil hydrocarbons and will continue their dominant positions in global energy production.
And this means that the emission of carbon dioxide will increase. Despite the efforts undertaken by developed countries, efforts to reduce CO 2 emissions, the total amount of emissions from 1970 to 2004 increased in the world by 80%. There was a previously applied tendency to reduce specific emissions (per unit of energy) after 2000 he turned back. The main reason is the growth of emissions in developing countries: in China only from 1990 to 2004. They have increased more than twice - by 110%, in Indonesia - by 105, in India - by 90, in Brazil - by 59.8% . Now there are 42% of emissions to developing countries, and China occupies second place in the world after the United States. The ICCC report predicts the growth of global greenhouse gas emissions in the period up to 2030 by 25-90%.
Such is the reverse side of capitalist modernization. Progress of science and technology Since the beginning of the industrial era, allowed the use of "GRAND SERVICES OF NATURE" (Termin Marx). The main energy basis for economic growth was an unprecedented scale of hydrocarbon fuel. Inherited from the past, the idea of \u200b\u200bthe inexhaustibility of energy and other natural resources led to the extremely low estimate. The reduction in production costs contributed to the vertical integration of production - the unification of the "under one roof" of the production and processing of raw materials. And the main thing - preserved from the colonial times the possibility of obtaining cheap raw materials from the countries of capitalist periphery, where its mining remained under the control of Western monopolies.
The abundance and relative cheapness of resources is one of the main factors of the economic prosperity of the West in the newest time. The disparity of prices established in world economic relations between the high-tech products of industrial countries and raw materials supplied by less developed countries continued to grow for most of the twentieth century. Only in recent decades, when the perspective of the exhaustion of raw materials was issued on the horizon, and the third world states began to take their control under their control, outlined a fracture in the dynamics of prices for raw materials: first in the field of oil production, and then in some other commissions.
Now UN experts complain: "The world is too carried away (!) Developing a highly carbon-intensive infrastructure." It would be more correct to say: the world was fascinated by the element of market forces, supported by the economic and political dominance of the main industrial powers. The market reacts mainly on short-term or, at best, medium-term signals (current demand, profits), but blind in terms of long-term interests and goals of society, not to mention the interests of all mankind, his future generations. As stated in the review report on the economic aspects of climate change, prepared under the guidance of the former chief economist of the World Bank of Nicolas Stern (report Stern), global warming - the testimony of the "largest market failure, which only saw the world."
But this is also a certificate of "failed politicians." The rivalry of the great powers and, especially, the global wars of the twentieth century, and, especially, the world wars of the XX century, which, in addition to the measurement of colossal direct damage, also mean a huge waste of material and commodity resources of humanity. Not less, but perhaps, and great damage to nature and waste resources turned around the "Cold War" decades with its insane racing of nuclear weapons. And this "Organized Madness" (V. Brandt) continues to this day, appearing as an endless series of ethnic conflicts, civil wars, excesses of international terrorism and "war against terrorism", as a new senseless arms race.
In this regard, the predominance of routine market motifs in economic activity and politically (and / or ideologically) a motivated distortion of the priorities of social development go hand in hand. Neoliberal globalization of recent decades is more aggravated by the situation than contributes to its correction. The rapid growth of world trade and exacerbation of international competition provoke anti-ecological practices, especially in connection with the accelerated development of energy, maritime, railway and road transport, aviation communication, etc. Corporations concerned about maintaining their competitiveness, that is, reduced costs, are interested in saving environmental measures; They lobbies a decrease in national and international environmental standards or they oppose them to increase, and even they are simply bypass. And sometimes they find the support of their governments, such as in the United States, where the Bush administration at one time recalled the signature of his country under the Kyoto Protocol. The willingness of some corporations to comply with environmental requirements is based on the cost barriers imposed by the harsh conditions of market competition.
Nature avenge man
The dominant type of economic development has grown out of European cultural roots - from the associated ideas about the domination of a person over nature, from the ideology of progressism and extreme anthropocentrism, faasts for discoveries and research, to accumulation, trade and industrial expansion, etc. The value priorities of the Western person were formed in the context of the seeming limitlessness of earthly resources and opportunities for economic growth. The increase in material benefits today was not perceived as an obstacle to an even greater increase in goodness tomorrow.
This view was perceived and Marxism. Marx, how much can be judged today, was inclined to underestimate the importance of natural restrictions for the growth of production, believing that at a sufficiently high stage of the development of the productive forces "All sources of public wealth are fulfilled with full stream" and will be possible distribution "according to needs". Engels, speaking of a person's ability to dominate nature, to force it to serve her goals, drew attention to another strand of the case. He wrote: "We will not, however, too dedicated by our victories over nature. For each such victory, she takes us. Each of these victories is true, first of all, the consequences for which we expected, but in the second and third time there are completely different, unforeseen consequences that very often destroy the meaning of the first. " Engels emphasized that it means not only the natural, but also public consequences of human production activities. Listing a number of examples of the other, he expressed the hope that over time people will learn to take into account these consequences in advance and regulate them.
Unfortunately, this judgment was too optimistic. It took more than a hundred years, but people have not yet learned to take into account in advance and regulate the consequences of their production activities. The situation worsened so much that today humanity stands before the prospect of the "double catastrophe" - the one that in the near future threatens the poorest part of the world population, and the one that threatens in the future of mankind.
Climate change has already declared itself as a powerful strength affecting the position of the poorest part of the world population. From 1975 to 2006, the average annual number of large-scale natural disasters has grown fourly. Only in 2003-2004 At least 326 climatic catastrophes were registered, from which 262 million people suffered, which is about three times more than in the second half of the 80s. Moreover, up to 98% of victims are people in developing countries. At the specified period, weather disasters annually affected every 19th inhabitant of this part of the world, whereas in industrialized countries - only one of 1 out of 1500. And we are talking only about the Aisberg's top, since many local climatic disasters are not registered or not even mentioned at all, Not falling under the adopted criteria of humanitarian disaster.
There are a number of reasons for the special vulnerability of developing countries. Many of them are located in climatic zones that are most susceptible to natural disasters. They do not have sufficient resources and means to protect the population. Here, the concentration of poverty is extremely high, and the poor is especially vulnerable from the point of view of climatic risks. Social factors such as concentrating population in hazardous areas play a big role - for example, in urban slums on unaffected slopes, in villages located in areas of possible floods, etc. Strong economic dependence on agriculture also increases the degree of climatic risks from which Already today, hundreds of millions of people suffer. Iniquity, which bring natural disasters to poor people, mean, as a rule, the loss of existence, narrow their vitality, circumsorate to degradation of human potential.
The forecasts of UN experts regarding the consequences of climate change for developing countries are disappointing. In Africa south of Sahara, Eastern and South Asia, global warming will affect especially strongly, it will be expressed in more frequent droughts and exacerbating water supply problems. Significant losses of agricultural products will lead to an increase in malnutrition and reduce poverty reduction possibilities. By 2080, the number of people encountered with the threat of hunger may increase by 600 million people. The prospects for the development of education will be complicated, the incidence will increase, the state of the health of people will deteriorate.
If so far the impact of climate change is manifested with a certain distortion towards the poorest countries of the world, in the future, while maintaining existing trends, rich countries will continue to suffer. The consequences of global warming, especially if it takes place at maximum scenarios, will affect all humanity. Climatic disasters similar to the heat of the heat, who experienced Europe in 2003, when 35 thousand people died from heat blows, or Hurricane "Katrina" (2005), which led to the destruction of New Orleans, the death of 1500 of its inhabitants, and deprived the bed 750 Thousands people will become commonplace.
By the middle of the current century, economic losses from hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, landslides, droughts, forest fires can exceed the losses caused by world wars and crises of the first half of the twentieth century. This is the fact that UN experts call the second catastrophe that lifters humanity. In addition, the uneven distribution of the consequences of climate change will lead to the exacerbation of the struggle for resources, to an increase in the abyss between rich and poor countries, to an increase in discontent and anger among the poorest groups of the world population, and thereby strengthening international tensions, to the threat of new conflicts and wars.
The global scale of the problem, the inertia of climatic processes associated with this uncertainty of perspectives - all this dictates the need for urgent actions aimed at preventing threatening hazards. Coordination of the International Program of Action, decision making and their implementation is politicalthe task facing national governments to the whole world community. But here it faces difficulties that sometimes seem insurmountable.
Who is guilty?
The main difficulty is associated with the extremely uneven distribution of greenhouse gas emissions between countries - developed and developing, large and small. Today's climate change is due to past emissions, and most of the responsibility for them lies in industrial countries (up to 70% of the emission reserves accumulated from the beginning of the industrial era). As for current emission flows that define global warming trends in the future, the situation is gradually changing: the share of developed countries in the total emissions is reduced (now about half), while the share of developing countries increases.
It would be possible to talk about rapprochement between the first and second, if not important "but": in terms of the volume of emissions per capita (the so-called "carbon footprint") rich countries in dozens and even hundreds of times exceed the poor and the poorest countries. Representing only 15% of the world's population, rich countries produce 45% of emissions, and low-income countries, which have a third of the world population - only 7%. The "carbon footprint" of one billion of the poorest people is only 3% of the total "track" of mankind.
The bulk of world greenhouse gas emissions is concentrated in a small group of countries, it includes the USA and Canada, the European Union states, the Russian Federation, Japan, as well as China, India, Brazil (together they represent the majority of the world's population). But within this group of the main "pollutants" of the planet also there is a strong imbalance in the amount of per capita emissions. In the US, this figure reaches 20.6 tons of CO 2 (2004), in Canada - 20.0 tons, in the Russian Federation - 10.6 tons, in the UK - 9.8 tons, whereas in China - 3.8 tons, in India is just 1.2 tons.
These imbalances impose, naturally, their mark on the nature of the discussions on the ways to counter global climate change. The "carbon debt" of rich countries accumulated as a result of the overexpherication of the atmosphere (and the biosphere) of the Earth gives the basis of poor countries to proceed from the fact that it is the West that the burden of solving problems related to climate change should take on the burden of solving problems associated with climate change. The West, for his part, is concerned about the growing contribution of the economies of developing countries into global warming, requiring the participation of their largest in solving these problems.
The opposite of the initial positions was dramatically manifested at a meeting of the UN Security Council on April 17, 2007, who first discussed the issue of global climate change in terms of possible consequences for international peace and security. The discussion was conducted on the initiative of the UK, which at that time presided over the Security Council. In addition to 15 members of the Security Council, representatives of another 40 states from various regions of the planet took part. Representatives of Great Britain and other Western countries had to prove the legality of the inclusion of this issue on the agenda of the Security Council. Representatives of most developing countries challenged this, arguing that in this case the owls went beyond his mandate. Pakistani Faruh Amil, speaking on behalf of the group 77 and China, accused the Security Council in the "encroachment" for the role and functions of other UN main bodies, in the "distortion" of the principles and objectives of the UN Charter.
India's ambassador to the UN Nirupam Sen - he stated that climate change cannot be considered as a threat within the sense of article 39 of the UN Charter, and the proposed disaster scenarios "should not be taken seriously", since a more real threat is the emergence of conflicts due to lack of resources For the development and fight against poverty. The discussion showed that the Western concept, which binds the "climatic" interpretation of threats to peace and security mainly with developing countries, causes representatives of the latest concerns and opposition. In contrast to this approach, they tend to emphasize the relationship of climate change with solving development problems, access to energy and other resources. There is a desire to wrap the concern of the West in their favor - to remind him of obligations to poor countries, the need to provide them with more financial resources for development.
From the developing countries, direct accusations of industrial - are that they are carrying and must recognize the main responsibility for the worsening climate on the planet; that the reasons for global warming are associated not only with the emission of carbon dioxide, but also with the predatory exploitation of nature, sacrificing "industrial progress", with the "neoliberal development model, which some industrial societies are trying to impose in the world" (representative of Venezuela), with the commitment of rich The countries "consumption models, which is very devastating" (Congo). It was said that developed countries, initiating this discussion, thereby issuing their desire to solve the problem of combating global warming also at the expense of poor countries - in violation of the principle of "general, but differentiated responsibility".
A dilemma facing developing countries is really dramatic. On the one hand, the priority for them is to ensure economic growth and raising the living standards of the population, on the other hand, they are primarily threatened by the consequences of global warming. Both solving problems of development and mitigation of climate change require huge investments in which poor countries are experiencing a constant deficit. There is a conflict between the closest and / or medium-term interests and long-term. And a different assessment of the degree of priority of immediate and long-term interests developed and developing countries. The latter are considering global warming first of all as a threat to development, and development - as a way to solve problems related to global warming. The measures offered by the West measures to mitigate the effects of global warming will lead, in their opinion, to distract the resources necessary to promote development.
Ultimately, the question is as follows: on whom lies the main wine for the global climate change and who should take on the main burden of costs? The European Union, Japan is ready to increase costs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but expect relevant efforts from China, India, other larger developing countries. The latter, however, do not want to take over excessive, from their point of view, obligations, expecting their best efforts from industrialized countries and, above all, by the United States, which still shied against themselves clear international obligations.
Is it possible to overcome antagonism between developed and developing countries in this matter? The task is extremely difficult: rich countries do not want to have a way of life inherent in the "consumption society"; Poor countries with their growing population cannot refuse to increase industrial production and economic growth. The clash of interest has become a stumbling block towards an agreed program of international action in environmental protection. Reasonable basis of consent could be recognized that global warming is and security threat, and The problem of development is that the principle of "either-either" here does not suit that opposition counterproductive and necessary for the search for the balance of interest in solving the problems of combating global warming on the basis of international cooperation.
What to do?
Global warming irreversible, but still the opportunity to keep it within, allowing you to avoid the worst. To do this, it is necessary to change the current carbon emissions trajectory, to achieve a gradual transition to the trajectory of their decline - to a level compatible with the environmental capacity of the environment. The permissible concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is estimated at 450-550 PPM (particles per million), which would allow to keep the increase in average temperature at no more than 2ºС. To achieve this "Obzhnaya point", it is necessary to reduce the average annual emission increase of up to 14.5 GT CO 2, or twice as compared to the current level. The basis of this calculation is the concept of carbon balance or the "carbon budget", in which humanity should meet in the XXI century to avoid catastrophic consequences (with current trends in emissions, it would be exhausted in 2032 or, with more favorable conditions - in 2042 .).
These parameters should serve as a basis for defining a course that the world community must be followed in order to prevent the most dangerous consequences of climate change. With the transition to the trajectory of reduction of emissions, they would have achieved peak values \u200b\u200bby 2020, and then they will have to be reduced by about 50% by 2050, and this reduction should continue further.
But this is if we consider the world as one country as a whole. Due to the unequal position of the countries, the problem of the "Bremen distribution" arises, which should meet the principle of general, but differentiated duties and relevant opportunities. It is assumed that high-income countries should reach the peak of emissions by 2012-2015, to reduce them by 30% by 2020 and at least 80% by 2050, the largest developing countries can maintain the growth trajectory of emissions to 2020 ., When a peak is reached, exceeding about 80% of the current level, and by 2050 will have to reduce emissions by 20% compared with 1990.
Solving these tasks would require considerable costs. There are various estimates of such costs, they vary depending on what methods and emission reduction deadlines are envisaged. In studies made for the 2007/2008 development report, the costs of stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions at 450 PPM are estimated at 1.6% of the annual global GDP for the period from now until 2030. Can the world community can afford such expenses? Is there any resources at his disposal? The answer is obvious: maybe there are such resources. Suffice it to say that the desired amount would be less than two thirds of the annual world military expenses (they exceed the trillion dollars). And comparable with US expenses for war in Iraq. Or with expenses on the ambitious plans of the great powers on the development of space (flights per Mars, etc.), which is unlikely to be attributed to the priorities of humanity.
The speeding argument in favor of urgent action and the adoption of a tense program is that in a long term, the inaction price may be much larger than the necessary costs in the present. Possible risks in the future with difficulty are evaluating, since there is a large proportion of uncertainty. Calculations on economic models give reason to conclude that future losses due to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, if it is not stopped on time, can reach from 5 to 10% of global GDP annually, and for poor countries, this figure may exceed 10% of GDP.
There are, however, the critics of these calculations that believe that future risks are not so great, and the assessment of the costs required today is exaggerated. They propose to limit themselves to a more modest rate of emission reduction in the present and, accordingly, smaller expenditures. Their arguments are built on the assumption that in the future, the growth of the global economy and technical progress will allow to allocate more funds and make a sharper reduction in emissions. In other words, it is proposed to transfer climate change costs for future generations.
This is a short-sized position, flawed not only from the point of view of current environmental realities, but also from an ethical point of view. The problem of mitigation of climate change cannot be approached only from the "cost / benefit". Measures taken today can give the desired effect only after decades. The refusal of actions will now be the cause of the enormous suffering of the following generations of people. The "features window" for effective actions still remains open, but quickly narrows and may consider UN experts, close over the next decade.
And they offer the world community a concrete and quite realistic action plan. It includes several main positions.
First, the establishment of the price of carbon emissions, which would compensate for their social costs. A fully market assessment of these costs is impossible, but in the first approximation the reference could be the proposed stable path of emissions. What, of course, would lead to an increase in carbon prices - to the level corresponding to this trajectory. For pricing correction, there are two ways - taxation and establishment of emission quotas.
Emission tax will give substantial revenues to national budgets, which would allow industrially developed countries, on the one hand, to avoid general growth in taxation, reducing taxes on other articles (for example, on the wage foundation), and on the other - finance investments in the development of low carbon technologies and alternative energy sources.
As for extreme emission quotas, they directly encourage the introduction of energy-efficient, carbon-intensive technologies and reduction of emissions. In addition, the establishment of limit quotas allows trading quotas (that is, "pollution rights"), which should also, in principle, stimulate the reduction of emissions.
Both correction of pricing through taxation and the quota trade systems - this market incentives Reduced emissions. The proposed measures are aimed at changing the system of market incentives, to give them a certain orientation. Naturally, many problems arise here, first of all - the problems of control, management, the introduction of the transfers system both at the national (due to the unequal situation of various industries) and internationally (in order to compensate for the damage to increasing energy prices for population groups and low countries income). But at the international level, there are no mechanisms for this.
The main thing is that market incentives themselves will not be able to restrain the further growth of emissions and stop it at the critical threshold. Introduction of emission taxes and tougher limit quotas will inevitably cause opposition from a large business that can also configure public opinion in a certain way, appealing to the interests of consumers, frightening jobs reduction and so on.
From here - and this is second - a decisive role direct state interventionwhich is obliged to directly stimulate investments in new technologies for the use of hydrocarbons (improving the efficiency of thermal power plants, coal gasification, carbon trapping and storage), new, environmentally cleaner types of fuel for vehicles, in the development of renewable energy sources, eliminate obstacles and cost barriers to implementation New technologies, etc. UN experts recommend to develop and legislatively enshrine national "carbon budgets" as the form of planning a long-term, emerging beyond the limits of conventional political cycles of the course for the transition to a low-carbon, "green" economy. Will these recommendations perceived by politicians?
Rotate in politics?
The awareness of the severity of the situation and the need for urgent action gradually penetrates world politics. 2007 became an important milestone in this regard. On September 24, 2007, at the initiative of the UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon in New York, in the framework of the 62nd session of the Genasembly, a high-level event was conducted on climate change with the participation of representatives of 150 states, including about 80 heads of state and governments. An example is submitted by the European Union, which in March 2007 approved the proposal of Germany to unilaterally reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases by 2020. Moreover, the EU is ready to go on a 30 percent (compared with 1990) a decrease in harmful emissions - provided that its example will follow other developed countries, and more advanced developing countries will make an appropriate contribution to the measure of their capabilities.
Angela Merkel, who presided over the EU on behalf of Germany in the first half of 2007, took steps to encourage others, and above all, to join the initiative of the European Union. In an effort to get away from the accusations that the United States impede the efforts to combat global warming, President Bush on the eve of the G8 summit in Heiligendamma (June 2007) stated that the United States intends to "together with other nations" establish "new framework" to solve Problems of greenhouse gases for the period after 2012 and called on other countries to "join" in this (!) To the United States - as opposed to the negotiation process within the UN. At the same time, he made it clear that it would not be signed under any harsh conditions in the matter of restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions.
This position of the United States has become a stumbling block on the Highigendamm Summit "G8", where the problem of combating global warming should have occupied the central place. In the extended statement "Height and Responsibility in the World Economy", the conclusions of the IPCC are recognized, but climate change turned out to be entered into the background. The G8 leaders only promised to "seriously consider" the EU offer (supported by Canada and Japan) to shorten the global emission of greenhouse gases by 2050. They also confirmed the readiness to take part in the 13th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, for discussion Preparation of a new global agreement, which should come to replace the Kyoto Protocol after 2012 in the order of "compromise" and the United States agreed.
This conference was viewed as a "last chance" of mankind to agree on joint environmental protection actions in December 2007 on Bali Island (Indonesia). After two weeks, it turned out to be on the verge of failure - and again, mainly due to the position of the United States, which again objected to any specific obligations. Only at the last moment, after the dramatic reproduction of the UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, the US representative Paul Dobryanski announced that her country would support consensus. The cost of compromise was the lack of concrete obligations in the agreed action plan (BALI Action Plan) size Reduced emissions, as the EU representatives wanted. The position of the United States in this issue arranged some other participants, in particular China, as well as Russia.
At the same time, the Bali Road Map determined the principles and directions of future actions, as well as the negotiation plan for a new agreement (instead of the Kyoto Protocol), which should be developed by the end of 2009, the following basic principles and objectives are provided:
- "Measurable, affordable and checked" obligations or actions all developed countries (concession from the United States!) to mitigate climate change, including targets for quantitative restriction and reduction of emissions determined with the national conditions;
- relevant actions of developing countries in the context of sustainable development, supported by technologically, financially and by forming the necessary potential;
- politics that stimulates the cessation of deforestation and degradation of forests in developing countries, the preservation of forests there and the rational management of them, which would contribute to the decrease in greenhouse gas emissions;
- facilitating adaptation to climate changes in vulnerable countries, especially the most vulnerable developing and poorest countries, as well as small island states;
- the creation of effective mechanisms for the development and transfer of technologies to developing countries, the introduction and distribution of new, environmentally friendly technologies, elimination of obstacles for this;
- Improving the access of developing countries to financial resources, financial and technical support, the provision of additional resources to the most vulnerable to climate change countries.
International cooperation is becoming crucial. Even the strongest states can not withstand global threats alone and, therefore, effectively protect their own long-term interests. This requires consent and cooperation of all major participants in the global process. Evasion from agreed obligations and actions, especially on the part of large states, undermines confidence and can obstruct any plans for failure. But only actions at the national level are not enough. The creation of effective international mechanisms for the transfer of new technologies and financial support to developing countries is one of the key problems.
Obstacles on this path are huge. White House Immediately after the end of the conference on Bali Island, distributed a statement in which "serious concern" is expressed about a number of aspects of the agreements reached there. Obstacles to implement them will arise from different sides. There are reservations and doubts from Russia, and in China, from other states. It does not cause special optimism and the fact that those who are willing to act, have the main hopes for technology and market mechanisms. None nor the other in itself will solve problems. Not once mentioned above, the IPCC report reasonably binds the possibility of mitigating the effects of global warming with appropriate shifts in the lifestyle, in cultural, behavioral, consumer installations.
The world community faces the need to change the course, override the market framework, overcoming the dominant while the type of economic development is in favor of the model sustainable development. We are talking about changing the main value orientation, the method of thinking, motivating human activity. Where there has already been a high level of material progress and welfare, the principles of sufficiency, moderation, self-restraint, change in the irrational structure of production and consumption, increasing the role of non-economic, non-monetary components of public interest should be replaced by the concern of concerns of production and consumption. In the meantime, the possibility of implementing plans to prevent the threatening effects of global climate change remains in question.
The data used in this article is borrowed (unless otherwise specified) from the following sources: 1) Intergovernmental PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE. CLIMATE CHANGE 2007: SYNTHESIS REPORT (FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORT). Summary for PolicyMakers (www.ipcc.ch); 2) Stern, N. The Economics of Climate Change. The Stern Review. - Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007 (electronic version: www.hm-treasury.gov.uk); 3) a report on the development of man 2007/2008. Fighting climate change: human solidarity in the divided world; per. from English - M.: The whole world, 2007. (Unless Otherwise Stipulated Therein) from The Following Sources: 1) Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change. CLIMATE CHANGE 2007: SYNTHESIS REPORT (FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORT). Summary for PolicyMakers (www.ipcc.ch); 2) Stern, N. The Economics of Climate Change. The Stern Review. - Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007 (Electronic Version: www.hm-treasury.gov.uk); 3) HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008. Fighting Climate Changes: Human Solidarity in A Divided World; Translated from russian. - MOSCOW: VES "MIR, 2007).
According to the definition of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the concept of "Climate Change" refers only to human activity. Natural factors are designated as "Climate Variable" (climate variability). (According to the Definition Accepted by The Un Framework Concept 'Climate Change, The Concept' Climate Change 'Belongs Only to Human Activity. Natural Factors Are Defined AS' Climate Change).
Report on the development of man 2007/2008. - from. 22. US CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM PROGRAM PROGRAM APPROVED AMPROVED ATTRACTING THE MIGIC PROGRAM AT THE PIKE AGEIC PROVIDED TO THE PROTECTION OF MANYABY ", arguing that it is unfair to blame people in climate change, since, according to their assessment," only third "changes can be explained by anthropogenic exposure. In other words, the "Heavenly Office" is to blame. The sneaking here is evident. No one denies the role of natural factors. The thing is that it is the appearance of an anthropogenic factor that violates the currently in nature climatic and generally biosphere equilibrium. (Report Human Development Report of 2007/2008. - P. 22. The American Experts Working Change Science Program In The Context of InterGovernmental Panel On Climate Change Have Spoken Out in Defense of 'Mankind', Claiming That It IS Unfair to Blame People for Climate Change AS by Their Assessment 'Only A Third' of Changes Can Be Explained by Anthropogenic Influence. In Oter Words, 'Celestial Chancellery' is Guilty. Cunning Is Evident here. Nobody Denies A Role of Natural Factors. The Fact Is That The Emergence of The Anthropogenic Factor Breaks Climatic and General BioSpheric Balance in Nature).
Calculated by: Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2007. US Census Bureau. Table 1354. - P. 858. (Counted on: Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2007. US Census Bureau. Table 1354. - P. 858.)
Marx, K. Criticism of the Gothic Program // Marx, K., Engels, F. Ot. - t. 19. - p. 20. (Marx, K. Critique of the Gotha Programme // MARX, K., Engels, F. Collected Works. - Vol. 19. - P. 20).
Engels, F. Dialectics of Nature // ibid. - t. 20. - P. 495-496. Engels, F. Dialactics of Nature // ibid. - Vol. 20. - PP. 495-496).
An example of conflicts due to the lack of resources due to climate change can be the tragedy of Darfur (Sudan), where the war that took hundreds of thousands of lives was preceded by two decades of drought, which stimulated the cruel spread between agricultural and pastoral communities (Ban Ki-moon. War and Climate / Climate / NG-DIPCER. - 2007. - July 2). (The tragedy of Darfur (Sudan) where the war taken hundreds of thousands of lives was preceded by two decades of drought which caused cruel strife between agricultural and cattle breeding communities can be an example of conflicts because of shortage of resources due to climate change ( Ban Ki-Moon. War and Climate // NG-Dipkuryer. - 2007. - On July 2).
The total volume of greenhouse gases is measured in units equivalent to CO 2. (The Total Amount of Greenhouse Gases Is Measured in The Units Equivalent to CO2).
For a stenograph of this meeting, see the Internet: UN Document S / PV.5663 (www.un.org/ Russian / Document / SSAction / 2007 / APR-JUNE.html). (The Verbatim Record About This Meeting See On The Internet: Document of the Un S / PV.5663 (www.un.org/ russian / document / sñacity / 2007 / APR-JUNE.html)).
See: Weber, A. B. Global climate change on the agenda of world politics // Politia. - 2007. - № 2. (SEE: Veber, A. B. Global Climate Change in the Agenda of World Politics // Polity. - 2007. - No. 2).
The EU also intends to achieve an increase in the share of renewable energy sources in the general balance by 2020 to 20% (now 6.5%). This offer is approved by the European Commission. (The Share of Renewable Energy In the The Share of Renewable Energy In The Overall Balance To 20 Per Centu 2020 (IT Amounts 6.5 Per CENT NOW). This Offer Is Approved by European COMMISSION).
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