IN Lately many scientists talk about what is happening on Earth global warming climate. Each of us notices this process. After all, in last years The weather changes significantly: winters drag on, spring comes late, and summers are sometimes very hot.

But despite the fact that the effects of global warming have been recorded by many scientific observations, there are still endless discussions around this topic. Some scientists believe that in connection with the onset of the Earth, “ ice age" Others make bleak predictions, while others believe that the catastrophic consequences of global warming for our planet are highly controversial. Which one is right? Let's try to understand this issue.

Global warming concept

How can we define this term? Global warming on Earth is a process that is a gradual increase in the average annual temperature in the surface layer of the atmosphere. It occurs due to an increase in concentration and also due to changes in volcanic or solar activity.

The problem of global warming began to particularly concern the world community at the end of the 20th century. Moreover, many scientists associate the rise in temperature with the development of industry, which emits methane, carbon dioxide and many other gases that cause the greenhouse effect. What is this phenomenon?

The greenhouse effect is an increase in the average annual temperature of air masses due to an increase in the concentration of water vapor, methane, etc. These gases are a kind of film that, like the glass of a greenhouse, easily passes through Sun rays and retains heat. However, there is a lot of scientific evidence indicating that the causes of global warming on Earth lie not only in the presence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. There are many hypotheses. However, none of them can be accepted with one hundred percent certainty. Let's consider those statements of scientists that deserve the most attention.

Hypothesis No. 1

Many scientists believe that the causes of global warming on our planet lie in the increase in solar activity. On this star, meteorologists sometimes observe the so-called, which are nothing more than powerful magnetic fields. This phenomenon causes changes in climate conditions.

For centuries, meteorologists have been counting sunspots appearing on the Sun. Based on the data obtained, the Englishman E. Mondoro in 1983 made an interesting conclusion that during the 14th-19th centuries, which is sometimes called the Little Ice Age, no such phenomenon was recorded on the Celestial Body. And in 1991, scientists from the Danish University of Meteorology studied “sunspots” recorded throughout the 20th century. The conclusion was clear. Scientists have confirmed the fact that there is a direct relationship between temperature changes on our planet and the activity of the Sun.

Hypothesis No. 2

Yugoslav astronomer Milanković suggested that global warming is largely caused by changes in the orbit in which the Earth revolves around the Sun. Affects climate change and the angle of rotation of our planet.

New characteristics in the position and movement of the Earth cause changes in the radiation balance of our planet, and, consequently, in its climate.

Influence of the World Ocean

There is an opinion that the culprit of global climate change on Earth is the World Ocean. Its water element is a large-scale inertial accumulator of solar energy. Scientists have found that intense heat exchange occurs between the thickness of the World Ocean and the lower layers of the atmosphere. This leads to significant climate changes.

In addition, there are about one hundred and forty trillion tons of dissolved carbon dioxide in ocean waters. Under certain natural conditions this element enters the atmosphere, also affecting the climate, creating a greenhouse effect.

Action of volcanoes

According to scientists, one of the causes of global warming is volcanic activity. During eruptions, huge amounts of carbon dioxide enter the atmosphere. This is the reason for the increase in average annual temperatures.

This mysterious solar system

One of the reasons for global warming on Earth, according to scientists, is the incompletely studied interactions that exist between the Sun and the planets in its system. Temperature changes on Earth occur due to different distributions of many types of energy.

Nothing can be changed

There is an opinion among scientists that global warming occurs on its own, without human influence or any external influences. This hypothesis also has a right to exist, since our planet is a large and very complex system with a lot of different structural elements. Followers this opinion They even built various mathematical models confirming the fact that natural fluctuations in the surface layer of air can range from 0 to 4 degrees.

Is it all our fault?

The most popular cause of global warming on our planet is the ever-increasing human activity, which significantly changes the chemical composition of the atmosphere. As a result of the work of industrial enterprises, the air is increasingly saturated with greenhouse gases.

Specific figures speak in favor of this hypothesis. The fact is that over the past 100 years, the average air temperature in lower layers atmosphere increased by 0.8 degrees. For natural processes, this speed is too high, because previously similar changes took place over more than one millennium. Moreover, in last decades The rate of increase in air temperature increased even more.

Manufacturers' trick or truth?

Today, the following question cannot be fully resolved: “Global warming - a myth or reality?” There is an opinion that climate change is nothing more than The history of consideration of this topic began in 1990. Before that, humanity was frightened by a horror story about ozone holes, which are formed due to the presence of freon in the atmosphere. The content of this gas in the air was negligible, but, nevertheless, American refrigerator manufacturers took advantage of this idea. They did not use freon in the manufacture of their products and waged a merciless war against competitors. As a result, European companies began to replace cheap freon with an expensive analogue, increasing the cost of refrigerators.

Today's idea of ​​global warming plays into the hands of many political forces. After all, concern for the environment can bring many supporters into their ranks, who will allow them to gain the coveted power.

Scenarios for the development of events

Scientists' predictions about what consequences climate change will have on our planet are ambiguous. Due to the complexity of the processes occurring on Earth, the situation can develop according to different scenarios.

Thus, there is an opinion that global climate change will occur over centuries and even millennia. This is due to the complexity of the relationship between the oceans and the atmosphere. These powerful energy accumulators will not be able to rebuild in the shortest possible time.

But there is another scenario for the development of events, according to which global warming will occur relatively quickly on our planet. By the end of the 21st century, the air temperature will increase by 1.1 to 6.4 degrees compared to 1990. At the same time, intensive melting of the ice in the Arctic and Antarctica will begin. As a result, the waters of the World Ocean will increase their level. This process is still observed today. So, from 1995 to 2005. The thickness of the waters of the World Ocean has already risen by 4 cm. If this process does not slow down, then flooding due to global warming will become inevitable for many coastal lands. This will especially affect populated areas located in Asia.

Climate change processes in the western United States and northern Europe will cause an increase in the frequency of storms and precipitation. These lands will experience hurricanes twice as often as in the 20th century. What will be the impact of global warming in this scenario for Europe? In its central territories the climate will become changeable with warmer winters and rainy summers. In Eastern and Southern Europe(including in the Mediterranean) there will be heat and drought.

There are also forecasts by scientists according to which global changes in climate conditions in some parts of our planet will lead to short-term cold snaps. This will be facilitated by a slowdown warm currents caused by melting ice caps. Moreover, a complete stop of these huge carriers of solar energy is possible, which will cause the onset of the next ice age.

The most unpleasant scenario could be a greenhouse catastrophe. It will be caused by the transition into the atmosphere of carbon dioxide contained in the water column of the World Ocean. Moreover, as a result of permafrost Methane will begin to be released. At the same time, a monstrous film will form in the lower layers of the Earth’s atmosphere, and the rise in temperatures will take on catastrophic proportions.

Consequences of global climate change

Scientists believe that failure to take drastic measures to reduce greenhouse emissions will lead to an increase average annual temperature by 1.4-5.8 degrees by 2100. The effects of global warming will include an increase in periods of hot weather that will become more extreme in nature. temperature conditions and longer. Moreover, the development of the situation will be ambiguous in different regions of our planet.

What are the projected consequences of global warming for the animal kingdom? Penguins, seals and polar bears, accustomed to living in polar ice, will be forced to change their habitat. At the same time, many species of plants and animals will simply disappear if they cannot adapt to new living conditions.

Also, global warming will cause climate change on a global scale. According to scientists, this will cause an increase in the number of floods resulting from hurricanes. In addition, summer precipitation will decrease by 15-20%, which will cause desertification of many agricultural areas. And due to rising temperatures and water levels in the World Ocean, the borders natural areas will begin to move north.

What are the consequences of global warming for humans? In the short term, climate change threatens people with problems with drinking water, with the cultivation of agricultural land. They will also lead to an increase in the number infectious diseases. Moreover, the most serious blow will be dealt to the poorest countries, which, in principle, do not bear any responsibility for the upcoming climate changes.

According to scientists, about six hundred million people will be brought to the brink of famine. By 2080, residents of China and Asia could experience an environmental crisis caused by changing rainfall patterns and melting glaciers. The same process will lead to the flooding of many small islands and coastal areas. About one hundred million people will be in flood-prone areas, many of whom will be forced to migrate. Scientists predict the disappearance of even some states (for example, the Netherlands and Denmark). It is likely that part of Germany will also be under water.

Concerning long term global warming, then it may become the next stage in human evolution. Our distant ancestors faced similar problems during periods when air temperatures increased by ten degrees after the Ice Age. Such changes in living conditions led to the creation of today's civilization.

Consequences of climate change for Russia

Some of our fellow citizens believe that the problem of global warming will only affect residents of other countries. After all, Russia is a country with a cold climate, and an increase in air temperature will only benefit it. The cost of heating housing and industrial buildings will be reduced. Agriculture also expects its benefits.

What, according to scientists' forecasts, is global warming and its consequences for Russia? Due to the length of the territory and great variety existing natural and climatic zones, the results of changes in weather conditions will manifest themselves in different ways. In some regions they will have positive character, and in others - negative.

For example, on average, the heating period throughout the country should be reduced by 3-4 days. And this will provide significant savings energy resources. But at the same time, global warming and its consequences will have another effect. For Russia, this threatens to increase the number of days with high and even critical temperatures. In this regard, the costs of air conditioning industrial enterprises and buildings will increase. In addition, the growth of such events will become an unfavorable factor that worsens the health of people, especially those who live in large cities.

Global warming is becoming a threat and is already creating problems with the melting of permafrost. in such areas is dangerous for transport and engineering structures, as well as for buildings. In addition, when permafrost melts, the landscape will change with the formation of thermokarst lakes on it.

Conclusion

There is still no clear answer to the following question: “What is global warming - a myth or reality?” However, this problem is quite tangible and deserves attention. close attention. According to scientists' comments, it especially made itself felt in 1996-1997, when humanity was presented with many weather surprises in the form of about 600 different floods and hurricanes, snowfalls and rainstorms, droughts and earthquakes. During these years, the elements caused colossal material damage in the amount of sixty billion dollars and claimed eleven thousand lives.

The solution to the problem of global warming must be at the international level, with the participation of the world community and with the assistance of the government of each state. To preserve the health of the planet, humanity needs to adopt a program further actions, providing for control and reporting at each of its stages of implementation.

What does warming threaten humanity with and what to do to prevent a catastrophe

In recent years, the climate on Earth has changed noticeably: some countries suffer from abnormal heat, others from winters that are too harsh and snowy, unusual for these places.

Environmentalists talk about global change climate, including an increase in average annual temperatures causing glaciers to melt and rising sea levels. In addition to warming, there is also an imbalance of all natural systems, which leads to changes in precipitation patterns, temperature anomalies and an increase in the frequency extreme events such as hurricanes, floods and droughts.

According to scientists, over ten months of 2015, the average temperature of the planet was 1.02 °C higher than that recorded in the 19th century (when monitoring of changes in global temperature began). The one degree threshold was exceeded for the first time in modern history. Scientists agree that it is human activity - the burning of oil, gas and coal - that leads to greenhouse effect, which causes an increase average temperature. Experts note that the period between 2000 and 2010 saw the strongest increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the last 30 years. According to the World Meteorological Organization, their concentration in the atmosphere reached a record high in 2014.

What threatens climate warming?

If states do not begin to seriously address the problem of environmental protection, by 2100 the temperature on the planet may rise by 3.7-4.8 °C. Climatologists warn: irreversible consequences for the environment will occur even with warming of more than 2 °C.

To draw maximum attention to climate problems, the UN attracted not only politicians and scientists, but also celebrities to the discussion. Hollywood actor Robert Redford warned in a statement that the international community's "time for half-measures and denial of climate change is over."

What consequences await the planet if we fail to stop the rise in temperature?

Natural disasters

Climate zones will shift, weather changes will become more dramatic ( very coldy, giving way to sudden thaws in winter, an increase in the number of abnormally hot days in summer). Frequency and strength will increase anomalous phenomena such as droughts and floods.

The connection between climate change and the occurrence natural Disasters proved by American scientists who discovered traces of warming while studying tropical cyclones V Pacific Ocean, unusually high summer temperatures in Europe, China, South Korea and Argentina, as well as forest fires in American state California. Climate change has also acted as a catalyst for drought in Africa and the Middle East, snow storms in Nepal and torrential downpours causing flooding in Canada and New Zealand.

Uninhabitable areas

Some countries may become uninhabitable by 2100 due to rising humidity and high average temperatures. According to a study by American scientists, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and other countries in the Middle East are at risk.

According to climatologists, at the current rate of growth in greenhouse gas emissions, by 2070 the average air temperature in the Gulf countries could reach 74-77 °C. This will make the areas uninhabitable for people. An exception may be large metropolitan areas with developed system conditioning. But even in them, people will be able to leave the house only at night.

A blow to biodiversity

According to some scientists, we are in the middle of the sixth in the history of the Earth mass extinction species. And this time this process is caused by human actions. If climate warming is not stopped, many ecosystems and the species of living beings that comprise them will become less diverse and less saturated.

There are predictions that up to 30-40% of plant and animal species will disappear because their habitats will change faster than they can adapt to these changes.

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a lack of drinking water, famine and epidemics

UN experts warn that warming will negatively affect crop yields, especially in weak climates. developed countries Africa, Asia and Latin America, which will lead to food problems. According to scientists, by 2080 the number of people facing hunger could increase by 600 million people.

Another important consequence of climate change may be a shortage of drinking water. In regions with arid climates ( central Asia, Mediterranean, South Africa, Australia, etc.) the situation will worsen due to a decrease in precipitation.

Hunger, lack of water, and the migration of insects can lead to an increase in epidemics and the spread of tropical diseases such as malaria and fever in the northern regions.

Climate change may not only affect human health, but also increase the risk of political divisions and conflicts over access to water and food resources.

Rising sea levels

One of the most tangible consequences of climate warming will likely be the melting of glaciers and rising sea levels. Millions of people on the coast will die from frequent flooding or be forced to relocate, UN analysts predict.

According to the expert community, sea level rise in the 21st century will be up to 1 m (in the 20th century - 0.1-0.2 m). In this case, lowlands, coastal areas and small islands will be most vulnerable.

The first to fall into the risk zone are the Netherlands, Bangladesh and small island states such as the Bahamas and Maldives.

Significant areas may be flooded in countries such as Russia, the USA, the UK, Italy, Germany, Denmark, Belgium, Iraq, Thailand and Vietnam. Serious damage threatens China, where about 140 million people could lose their homes, and Japan, where the homes of more than 30 million people, a quarter of the country's population, could be flooded.

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Estimated consequences for the Russian Federation

The climate in Russia is also changing noticeably. Sudden changes in weather, abnormally high and abnormally low temperatures are more common.

According to the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation, in our country from 1990 to 2010 the number natural disasters, such as floods, floods, mudflows and hurricanes, has increased almost fourfold and continues to increase by approximately 6-7% per year. Environmentalists predict that their number could double over the next ten years.

According to the World Bank, the annual damage from the impact of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena in Russia amounts to 30-60 billion rubles.

According to Roshydromet calculations, in Russia the average annual temperature is growing 2.5 times faster than worldwide. Most active warming is coming in the northern regions of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Emergency Situations adds. So, in the Arctic end of XXI century the temperature may rise by 7 °C. By the middle of the 21st century, the average winter temperature throughout Russia may increase by 2-5 °C. The increase in summer temperatures will be less pronounced and will be 1-3 °C by mid-century, rescuers believe.

The head of Roshydromet, Alexandra Frolova, believes that climate warming for Russia brings not only risks, but also benefits.

Threats associated with warming:

An increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of droughts in some regions, extreme precipitation, floods, and cases of soil waterlogging dangerous for agriculture in others;

Increased fire danger in forests and peatlands;

Disruption of the usual way of life of indigenous northern peoples;

Degradation of permafrost with damage to buildings and communications;

Disturbance of ecological balance, displacement of some biological species others;

Increased energy costs for air conditioning in summer season for a large area of ​​the country.

Positive changes:

Warming in the Arctic will increase the duration of navigation along the Northern Sea Route and facilitate the development of oil and gas fields on the shelf;

The heating season will be shortened and, accordingly, energy consumption will be reduced;

The northern border of agriculture will shift to the north, due to which the area of ​​agricultural land will increase, especially in Western Siberia and in the Urals.

Extinguishing peat bogs in the Tver region, 2014

© TASS/Sergey Bobylev

What to do

According to scientists, humanity is unlikely to be able to completely prevent climate change. However international community able to curb temperature rise to avoid irreversible environmental consequences. To do this, it is necessary to limit greenhouse gas emissions, develop alternative energy and develop a strategy to reduce risks due to warming.

Adaptation of social life to new conditions

Plans to minimize damage from climate change must cover all areas of human activity, including healthcare, agriculture and infrastructure.

In Russia, for example, it is necessary to change storm drains, prepare for stormy winds (recalculate the strength of structures), change the fire extinguishing system - droughts increase the fire danger, explains Alexey Kokorin. In Kyrgyzstan, the snow limit in the Tien Shan has risen, this has caused problems with livestock grazing - measures must be taken to preserve pastures.

However, different states different opportunities to mitigate the impact of climate change. For example, Holland and Bangladesh are experiencing the same problems: it has become more storms, sea levels have risen. But Holland already has an action plan; they know how they will strengthen the dams and where they will get the funds. But in Bangladesh there is none of this, and 10 times more coastline and the population is 10 times larger, and 100 million people live in dangerous territories who will need to be resettled somewhere.

Thus, Kokorin adds, most of the measures necessary for adaptation are quite simple and understandable, but their implementation requires funds and effective planning.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions

Climatologists estimate that to keep temperature increases to 2°C, countries will need to halve global emissions relative to 1990 levels by 2050, and to zero by the end of the 21st century.

According to PwC analysts, since 2000, Russia has on average reduced carbon dioxide emissions by 3.6% per year, the UK by 3.3%, France by 2.7%, and the USA by 2.3%. The average annual reduction in carbon emissions over the past 15 years has been 1.3%.

However, these efforts are not enough. To prevent irreversible climate change, annual reductions in carbon dioxide emissions must be at least 6.3% until 2100.

This means, on the one hand, it is necessary to implement Energy Saving Technologies, on the other hand, switch to alternative energy sources.

Sun or atom

Several energy sources are safe for the atmosphere in terms of emissions: hydropower, nuclear power plants and new renewable sources - sun, wind, tides. Hydropower has physically observable limits (there are not many rivers on Earth), wind and tides can only be used locally, so the main sources of energy of the future are the Sun and atom, says Professor Rafael Harutyunyan, Deputy Director of the Institute for the Safe Development of Nuclear Energy of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

According to the expert, based on the current level of technology development, nuclear energy looks more solid: alternative renewable energy sources now account for 2% of global consumption, and nuclear power already provides 16% of the world’s electricity (in developed countries - more than 70%, in the North western Russia - 40%).

The advantage of nuclear energy is that it is a large-scale energy sector, these are power plants for large industrial agglomerations and large cities.

The trump card of solar energy is the almost universal availability and dynamic development of technology. In addition, solar energy is being improved and can become much more economical, unlike nuclear energy, which cannot be significantly reduced in cost, Alexey Kokorin, head of the Climate and Energy program at WWF Russia, argues with nuclear supporters.

Advisor to the President of the Russian Federation and his representative on climate issues, Alexander Bedritsky, believes that it is impossible to completely solve the problem of reducing greenhouse gas emissions through renewable energy sources. The expert cited solar and wind energy as an example. According to him, providing industry with energy using solar panels in northern countries, such as Russia, where there is sun for half a year in the north, but not for half a year, it’s impossible.

The same, according to Bedritsky, applies to wind energy. It is suitable for individual consumption, but not for industrial production. Wind turbines are used in many regions, mainly in coastal areas, but they do not completely cover the territory.

In Russia, adds the adviser to the Russian President on climate change, approximately a third of the energy sector is based not on mineral raw materials, but on nuclear and hydropower.

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Who will pay

Negotiations on climate change are complicated by differences between rich and poor countries.

The transition to environmentally friendly energy sources requires significant costs. Developed countries insist that all negotiators contribute to these efforts. In turn, developing countries believe that responsibility for climate change lies with industrial powers, which have long been polluting the atmosphere with greenhouse gases.

According to Secretary General UN Ban Ki-moon, a special responsibility in the fight against climate change and the consequences of this phenomenon lies with developed countries. In 2010, the Green Fund was created to help developing countries under the auspices of the UN. climate fund" (Green Climate Fund). Funds are allocated for the most part developed countries. It is planned that by 2020 the volume of the fund should be $100 billion, but so far it contains just over $10 billion.

Now developed countries are experiencing a serious burden on state budgets, so they prefer that climate finance go through private investment or loans and borrowings, explains Alexey Kokorin. Vulnerable countries are not ready to take loans.

Despite the fact that Russia has no obligation to contribute funds to the Green Climate Fund, Moscow is ready to support it on a voluntary basis, adds Alexander Bedritsky. First of all, this concerns the CIS countries.

In November 2015, the fund approved $168 million for the first eight projects to help developing countries adapt to the negative impacts of climate change. It's about about three projects in Africa, three in the Asia-Pacific region and two in Latin America.

Burning garbage in India

© AP Photo/Anupam Nath

Paris Conference and new agreement

On December 12, 2015, at the UN World Climate Conference in Paris, 195 delegations from around the world approved a global agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2020.

April 22, 2016 1 . On behalf of Russia, the document was signed by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Khloponin.

The agreement will come into force once it is ratified by 55 countries that account for at least 55% of total global greenhouse gas emissions.

Main provisions of the document

The main goal of the new agreement, which was confirmed by all participating countries, is to achieve a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and thereby keep the increase in average temperature on the planet within 1.5-2 °C.

Currently, the efforts of the world community are not enough to curb global warming, the document notes. Thus, the level of total emissions risks reaching 55 gigatons in 2030, while, according to UN experts, this maximum mark should be no more than 40 gigatons. "In this regard, the participating countries Paris Agreement more intensive measures must be taken,” the document emphasizes.

The agreement has a framework nature; its participants have yet to determine the volume of greenhouse gas emissions, measures to prevent climate change, as well as the rules for implementing this document. But key provisions have already been agreed upon.

The parties to the agreement undertake:

Adopt national plans to reduce emissions, technological upgrading and adaptation to climate change; these state obligations should be reviewed and strengthened every five years;

Systematically reduce CO2 emissions into the atmosphere; To achieve this, by 2020 it is necessary to develop national strategies for the transition to a carbon-free economy;

Provide $100 billion annually to the Green Climate Fund to help underdeveloped and most vulnerable countries. After 2025, this amount should be revised upward “taking into account the needs and priorities of developing countries”;

Set up international exchange"green" technologies in the field of energy efficiency, industry, construction, agriculture, etc.

US President Barack Obama

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The agreement aims to reduce the carbon pollution that threatens our planet, as well as create new jobs and grow the economy through investment in low-carbon technologies. This could help delay or avoid some of the worst impacts of climate change.

US President Barack Obama

At the end of the summit, 189 states had submitted preliminary plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The five countries with the largest emissions reported the following reductions relative to 1990:

European Union - 40%;

Russia - 30%;

USA - 12-14%;

China - 6-18%;

Japan - 13%.

Officially, countries must voice their commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the day the document is signed. The most important condition- they should be no lower than the already stated goals in Paris.

To monitor the implementation of the Paris Agreement and the obligations undertaken by countries, it is proposed to form a special working group. It is planned that it will begin work in 2016.

Disagreements and ways to resolve them

"Should" was replaced with "should"

At the stage of discussion of the treaty, Russia advocated that the agreement be legally binding for all countries. The US opposed this. According to an unnamed diplomat quoted by the Associated Press, the American delegation insisted that the word “should” be replaced with “should” in the section on emissions reduction targets in the final document.

This structure of the treaty makes it possible to avoid ratification of the document in the US Congress, which is extremely skeptical of Obama’s environmental policies.

No specific obligations

Another proposal of the Russian Federation was the division of responsibility for emissions among all countries. However, developing countries opposed this. In their opinion, most of the burden should fall on developed countries, which for a long time were the main sources of emissions. Meanwhile, now the top five “polluters” of the planet, along with the USA and the EU, include China and India, which are considered developing countries. Russia is in fifth place in terms of CO2 emissions.

The problem of climate imbalance has become acute recently. Over the first 10 years of the 21st century, the volume of emissions of harmful gases increased 4 times. For this reason, there is now a persistent increase in ambient temperature.

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Global warming: myth or reality?

The issue of global warming is receiving more and more attention. Every day new theories and facts appear, old ones are refuted or confirmed. Publications contradict one another, which often leads to misconceptions. Let's try to figure this issue out.

Global warming is understood as the process of increasing the temperature of the environment (averaged indicators for the year), ocean waters, and the surface of the planet, caused by changes in the activity of the Sun, an increase in the emission of harmful gases in the atmosphere and other factors that arise as a by-product of human activity. Let's figure out what threatens us with a change in temperature.

Consequences of global warming

TO The consequences of global warming include:

• climatic changes, which are manifested by abnormal temperatures. Here are some examples of this process: severe frosts in winter alternate with quite high temperature during warming periods, abnormally hot or cold summers;
• reduction of water supplies suitable for consumption;
• decreased yields of many crops;
• melting glaciers, which increases water levels in the oceans and leads to the appearance of icebergs;
• increase in the number of natural disasters: prolonged droughts, torrential showers in certain regions where this was not typical; destructive hurricanes and tornadoes;
• desertification and increase in areas unsuitable for life;
• reduction in the diversity of biological species due to the inability to adapt to new living conditions.

Whether this is dangerous for humanity or not, it is impossible to say for sure. Question in how quickly he can adapt to new conditions. There is an acute imbalance in quality of life in different regions. Less populated but more developed countries The Earth is trying with all its might to stop the process of destructive anthropogenic influence on environment, V while in densely populated, less developed countries in The first priority is the problem of survival. Global climate change could lead to further increase this imbalance.

Scientists monitor signs of ongoing changes in research results chemical composition atmosphere and ocean waters, meteorological observations, changes in the speed at which glaciers are melting, graphs of changes in ice areas.

The rate of iceberg formation is also being investigated. Predictions based on the data obtained provide insight into the consequences of human influence on ecosystems. Evidence obtained from research shows that the threat lies in the fact that the pace of climate change is increasing every year, so the main challenge is the need to implement environmentally friendly production methods and restore the natural balance.

Historical facts about climate change

Analysis of paleontological data suggests that periods of cooling and warming have accompanied the Earth at all times. Cold periods were replaced by warming periods and vice versa. In the Arctic latitudes in summer the temperature rose to +13 o C. In contrast, there was a time when there were glaciers in tropical latitudes.

The theory confirms that humanity has witnessed several periods of climate change. There is evidence in historical chronicles that in the 11th-13th centuries there was no ice cover on the territory of Greenland, for this reason Norwegian sailors called it “green land”. Then a period of cooling came, and the territory of the island was covered with ice. At the beginning of the 20th century, a period of warming began again, as a result, the areas of glaciers in the mountains and ice decreased Arctic Ocean. In the 1940s, there was a short-term cooling, and since the 1980s, an active increase in temperature began throughout the planet.

In the 21st century, the essence of the problem is that in addition to the natural causes of changes in environmental temperature, the influence of anthropogenic factors. The pressure on ecosystems is constantly increasing. Its manifestation is observed in all regions of the planet.

Causes of global warming

Scientists are not ready to say with precision why climate conditions are changing. Many theories and hypotheses have a right to exist. The most common hypotheses are:

1. The world's oceans influence the climate. It accumulates solar energy. Changing currents have a direct impact on climatic conditions coastal countries. Air masses, which are formed under the influence of these currents, regulate temperature and weather many countries and continents. The circulation of heat in ocean waters has been little studied. Formation of hurricanes, which then destructive force come to the continents, is a consequence of disturbances in heat circulation in the oceans. Ocean water contains carbon dioxide and other harmful impurities, the concentration of which is several times higher than in the atmosphere. Under certain natural processes these gases can be released into the atmosphere, causing further climate changes on the planet.
2. The smallest changes in solar activity directly affect the climate on Earth. Scientists have identified several cycles of changes in solar activity lasting 11, 22 and 80-90 years. It is likely that increased activity in present time will decrease and the air temperature will drop by several degrees.
3. Volcanic activity. According to studies, during large volcanic eruptions an initial decrease in air temperature is observed, which is due to the release of large volumes of soot and sulfuric acid aerosols into the air. Then there is significant warming, which is caused by an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide resulting from the volcanic eruption.
4. Climate change is the result of anthropogenic influence. This hypothesis is the most popular. Comparing the rate of economic and technological growth, population growth and trends in climate change, scientists came to the conclusion that everything is connected with human activity. Side effect The active pace of industrial development has led to the emission of harmful gases and air pollution. According to research results, the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere creates a so-called shell, which leads to disruption of the planet’s heat exchange and a gradual increase in the temperature of the air, the Earth’s surface, and ocean waters.

Ways to solve the problem of global warming

According to a number of scientists, if people take on the problem of global warming in the coming years, the rate of climate change can be reduced. If people's lifestyle remains unchanged, it will not be possible to avoid the fate of dinosaurs.

Scientists suggest different ways how to fight and stop global warming. Ways to solve the problem of climate change and reduce the burden on the environment are very different: from landscaping areas, breeding new varieties of plants adapted to changing conditions, and ending with the development of new technological processes, which will have less impact on nature. In any case, the struggle should be aimed not only at solving current problems, but also at preventing negative consequences in the future. Not the least role here is given to reducing the use of non-renewable energy sources and the transition to the use of renewable ones. Many countries are already switching to geo- and wind energy.

Much attention is paid to the development regulatory documents, whose main task is to reduce emissions of harmful gases into the atmosphere and preserve biological diversity. This requires significant investment, but as long as people put their own well-being first, it will not be possible to get rid of the problem of climate change and prevent its consequences.

Global warming will greatly affect the lives of some animals. For example, polar bears, seals and penguins will be forced to change their habitats because polar ice will disappear. Many species of animals and plants will also disappear without having time to adapt to the rapidly changing environment. 250 million years ago, global warming killed three-quarters of all life on Earth

Global warming will change the climate on a global scale. An increase in the number of climate disasters, an increase in the number of floods due to hurricanes, desertification and a reduction in summer precipitation by 15-20% in the main agricultural areas, an increase in ocean levels and temperatures, and the boundaries of natural zones are expected to shift to the north.

Moreover, according to some forecasts, global warming will cause the onset of the Little Ice Age. In the 19th century, the cause of such cooling was volcanic eruptions, in our century the cause is different - desalination of the world's oceans as a result of melting glaciers

How will global warming affect humans?

In the short term: shortage of drinking water, increase in the number of infectious diseases, problems in agriculture due to droughts, an increase in the number of deaths due to floods, hurricanes, heat and drought.

The biggest blow may fall on the poorest countries, which are least responsible for exacerbating the problem and least prepared for climate change. Warming and rising temperatures may ultimately reverse the gains of previous generations.

Destruction of established and customary agricultural systems under the influence of droughts, irregular rainfall, etc. could actually bring about 600 million people to the brink of famine. By 2080, 1.8 billion people will experience severe water shortages. And in Asia and China, due to melting glaciers and changes in precipitation patterns, an environmental crisis may occur.

An increase in temperature by 1.5-4.5°C will lead to a rise in sea level by 40-120 cm (according to some calculations, up to 5 meters). This means the inundation of many small islands and flooding in coastal areas. About 100 million people will be in flood-prone areas, more than 300 million people will be forced to migrate, and some states will disappear (for example, the Netherlands, Denmark, part of Germany).

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the health of hundreds of millions of people could be at risk as a result of the spread of malaria (due to an increase in the number of mosquitoes in flooded areas), intestinal infections (due to disruption of water supply systems), etc.

In the long term, this may lead to the next stage of human evolution. Our ancestors faced a similar problem when the temperature rose sharply by 10°C after the Ice Age, but this is what led to the creation of our civilization.

Experts do not have accurate data on what humanity’s contribution to the observed increase in temperatures on Earth is and what the chain reaction may be.

The exact relationship between rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising temperatures is also unknown. This is one reason temperature forecasts vary so widely. And this gives food to skeptics: some scientists consider the problem of global warming to be somewhat exaggerated, as are the data on the increase in average temperature on Earth.

Scientists do not have a consensus on what the final balance of positive and negative effects of climate change may be, and according to which scenario the situation will develop further.

Some scientists believe that several factors may reduce the effect of global warming: As temperatures rise, plant growth will accelerate, which will allow plants to take more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Others believe that the possible negative consequences of global climate change are underestimated:

droughts, cyclones, storms and floods will become more frequent,

An increase in the temperature of the world's oceans also causes an increase in the strength of hurricanes,

The rate of glacier melting and sea level rise will also be faster…. And this is confirmed by the latest research data.

Already, the ocean level has increased by 4 cm instead of the predicted 2 cm, the rate of melting of glaciers has increased 3 times (the thickness of the ice cover has decreased by 60-70 cm, and the area of ​​non-melting ice of the Arctic Ocean has decreased by 14% in 2008 alone).

Perhaps human activity has already doomed the ice cover to complete disappearance, which could result in a several times greater rise in sea level (by 5-7 meters instead of 40-60 cm).

Moreover, according to some data, global warming may occur much faster than previously thought due to the release of carbon dioxide from ecosystems, including from the World Ocean.

And finally, we must not forget that global warming may be followed by global cooling.

However, whatever the scenario, everything suggests that we must stop playing dangerous games with the planet and reduce our impact on it. It is better to overestimate the danger than to underestimate it. It’s better to do everything possible to prevent it than to bite yourself later. He who is forewarned is forearmed.

About global warming and the serious economic, social and environmental problems associated with it . In recent years, a great deal of news and information has been published on this subject. But latest news, perhaps, turned out to be the “coolest” of all. A group of scientists from the USA, France and Great Britain said that we have already passed the point of no return and the catastrophic consequences of global warming on Earth can no longer be stopped.

Global warming is the process of a gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans (definition according to Wikipedia). There are several reasons for global warming and they are associated with cyclical fluctuations in solar activity (solar cycles) and human economic activities. Today it is impossible to determine with absolute certainty which of them is dominant. Most scientists are inclined to believe that the main reason for this is human activity (the combustion of hydrocarbon fuels). Some scientists strongly disagree and believe that the total human influence is small, and the main reason is high solar activity. Moreover, they even claim that a new Little Ice Age will begin soon after the current warming.

Personally, in this situation, it is difficult for me to accept any one point of view, since none of them today has sufficiently complete scientific evidence. And yet, the problem is serious, we need to react to it somehow and we can’t stay away. In my opinion, even if supporters of the anthropogenic (human) factor, like main reason global warming will be proven wrong in the future, then the efforts and resources spent today to prevent this warming will not be in vain. They will more than pay for themselves with new technologies and attentive attitude of people towards nature conservation.

What is the essence of global warming? The essence is the so-called “greenhouse” effect. In the Earth's atmosphere there is a certain balance of heat intake (solar rays) from the Sun and its release into space. The composition of the atmosphere has big influence to this balance. More precisely, the amount of so-called greenhouse gases (primarily carbon dioxide and methane, although water vapor is also a greenhouse gas). These gases have the properties of trapping solar rays (heat) in the atmosphere, preventing them from escaping back into outer space. Previously, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 0.02%. However, as industry grew and the production and burning of coal, oil and natural gas increased, the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere constantly increased. Because of this, more heat has been absorbed, which gradually warms the planet’s atmosphere. Forest and steppe fires also contribute to this. This is what concerns human activity. Mechanism cosmic influence I'll leave it for the next article.

What are the consequences of global warming? Like any phenomenon, global warming has both negative and positive consequences. It is believed that the northern countries will become warmer, so it will be easier in winter, agricultural yields will increase, southern crops (plants) will be cultivated further north. However, scientists are confident that negative consequences global warming will be much greater and the losses from them will significantly exceed the benefits. That is, humanity as a whole will suffer from global warming.

What kind of troubles can be expected from global warming?

1. An increase in the number and strength of destructive typhoons and hurricanes;
2. Increase in the number and duration of droughts, worsening water shortage problems;
3. From the melting of glaciers in the Arctic and Antarctic, rising sea levels and flooding of coastal areas where many people live;
4. Death of taiga forests due to thawing permafrost and destruction of cities built on this permafrost;
5. Spread to the north and into the highlands of a number of species - pests of agricultural and forestry and disease vectors.
6. Changes in the Arctic and Antarctic can lead to changes in the circulation of ocean currents, and therefore the entire hydro- and atmosphere of the Earth.

This is in general terms. In any case, global warming is a problem that will affect all people, regardless of where they live and what they do. That is why it is today the most widely discussed in the world, not only among scientists, but by the public.

Discussions and different points There are many points of view on this matter. Personally, I was most impressed by the film by Al Gore ( former candidate for US President in the campaign in which he ran alongside George W. Bush) “An Inconvenient Truth.” It clearly and convincingly reveals the causes of global warming and shows its Negative consequences for people. The main conclusion made in the film is that momentary political interests narrow ruling groups of people must give way to the long-term interests of all human civilization.

In any case, a lot needs to be done in order to, if not stop, then at least mitigate the negative consequences of global warming. And the publication below is to think about this once again.

(Continuation )

Georgy Kozulko
Belovezhskaya Pushcha

(Write your feedback, thoughts, ideas, questions, comments or disagreements in the comments below (anonymous users sometimes need to write in a separate window when sending a comment enter the code English text from the picture) or send to my email address: [email protected])

Catastrophic climate change can no longer be stopped

The best world scientists believe that in the near future, humanity will face the expansion of deserts, declining crop yields, increasing hurricane strength, and the disappearance of mountain glaciers that provide water to hundreds of millions of people.

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has already reached the point after which catastrophic climate change will begin, even if the amount of carbon dioxide can be reduced in the coming decades.

This is stated by a group of famous scientists from the USA, France and Great Britain in an article published in the Open Atmospheric Science Journal.

This study contradicts previous estimates, according to which dangerous concentrations of carbon dioxide will be reached only later this century, RIA Novosti reports.

“The silver lining to this finding is that if we take action to reduce carbon dioxide levels, we can reduce problems that already seem inevitable,” said lead study author James Hansen, director of the Goddard Institute for Space Exploration, part of Columbia University.

According to the scientist, humanity will face expanding deserts, declining crop yields, increasing hurricane strength, shrinking coral reefs and the disappearance of mountain glaciers that provide water to hundreds of millions of people.

To prevent sudden warming In the coming years, the researchers write, carbon dioxide concentrations should be reduced to pre-industrial era levels of 350 parts per million (0.035%). Currently, carbon dioxide concentrations are 385 ppm and increasing by 2 ppm (0.0002%) per year, mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.

The authors of the article note that recent data on the history of climate change on Earth supports their conclusions. In particular, observations of the melting of glaciers that previously reflected solar radiation, and the release of carbon dioxide from thawing permafrost and the ocean show that these processes, which were previously thought to be quite slow, may occur over decades rather than thousands of years.

Scientists note that reducing emissions from coal combustion can significantly improve the situation.

At the same time, they are skeptical of geoengineering methods for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, in particular, proposals to bury carbon dioxide in tectonic cracks or inject it into rocks on the ocean floor. According to them, removing 50 ppm of gas using this technology would cost at least $20 trillion, which is twice the US national debt.

“Humanity today faces the inconvenient fact that industrial civilization is becoming the main factor influencing climate. The greatest danger in this situation is ignorance and denial, which can make tragic consequences inevitable,” the researchers write.