There is scientific consensus that current global warming is highly likely to be caused by human activity.

Climate systems change both as a result of natural internal processes and in response to external influences, both anthropogenic and non-human, with geological and paleontological data showing the presence of long-term climate cycles, which in the Quaternary period took the form of periodic glaciations, with the present occurs during the interglacial period.

The causes of such climate changes remain unknown, but among the main external influences are changes in the Earth's orbit (Milankovitch cycles), solar activity(including changes in the solar constant), volcanic emissions and Greenhouse effect. According to direct climate observations (temperature changes over the past two hundred years), average temperatures on Earth have increased, but the reasons for this increase remain the subject of debate, but one of the most widely discussed is the anthropogenic greenhouse effect.

It cannot be said that there is a dispute between those who “believe” and “don’t believe” in the theory of the greenhouse effect. Rather, what is being disputed is the net effect of increasing the amount of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere, that is, whether warming due to the greenhouse effect is compensated by changes in the distribution of water vapor, clouds, the biosphere, or other climatic factors. However, the observed increase in the Earth's temperature over the past 50 years contradicts theories about the compensating role of the above feedbacks.

Greenhouse gas emissions

The greenhouse effect was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and first quantitatively studied by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. It is the process by which the absorption and emission of infrared radiation by atmospheric gases causes the atmosphere and surface of the planet to warm.

On Earth, the main greenhouse gases are: water vapor (responsible for approximately 36-70% of the greenhouse effect, excluding clouds), carbon dioxide (CO2) (9-26%), methane (CH4) (4-9%) and ozone ( 3-7%). Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 have increased by 31% and 149%, respectively, since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the mid-18th century. According to separate studies, such concentration levels have been reached for the first time in the last 650 thousand years - a period for which reliable data have been obtained from polar ice samples.

About half of all greenhouse gases produced during economic activity humanity remain in the atmosphere. About three-quarters of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions over the past 20 years resulted from the extraction and combustion of oil, natural gas and coal. Most of the remaining emissions are caused by changes in the landscape, primarily deforestation. In favor of the theory of anthropogenic contribution to modern change climate as a result of the release of greenhouse gases can also be evidenced by the facts that the observed warming leads primarily to an increase in average temperatures in high (subpolar) latitudes, to an increase in average temperatures in winter in mid-latitudes and to a decrease in nighttime cooling. It is also a fact that the rapid heating of the layers of the troposphere occurs against the background of a not very rapid cooling of the layers of the stratosphere

Human activity

results latest research support the theory that global warming is caused by human activity. A study involving scientists from Scotland, Canada and Australia showed that the likelihood of natural rather than anthropogenic causes of climate change on the planet is no more than 5%.

According to the same study, since 1980 average temperature The planet's air has risen by 0.5 degrees Celsius, and the Earth continues to warm by about 0.16 degrees per decade.

Change in solar activity

Various hypotheses have been proposed to explain changes in the Earth's temperature by corresponding changes in solar activity.

The third IPCC report states that solar and volcanic activity can explain half temperature changes until 1950, but their overall effect after that was approximately zero. In particular, the impact of the greenhouse effect since 1750, according to the IPCC, is 8 times higher than the impact of changes in solar activity.

Later work refined the estimates of solar activity's contribution to warming after 1950. However, the conclusions remained roughly the same: “The best estimates of the contribution of solar activity to warming range from 16% to 36% of the contribution of the greenhouse effect” (“Are Models Underestimating the Contribution of the Greenhouse Effect?” Solar Activity in Recent Climate Changes,” Peter A. Scott et al., Journal of Climate, December 15, 2003).

However, there are a number of studies suggesting the existence of mechanisms that enhance the effect of solar activity, which are not taken into account in current models, or that the importance of solar activity in comparison with other factors is underestimated. Such claims are disputed but are an active area of ​​research. The conclusions that emerge from this debate could play a key role in the question of how much humanity is responsible for climate change and how much natural factors are responsible.

There are many other explanations for the possible current increase in the average temperature of the earth's surface, without involving the role of industrial greenhouse gases.

The observed warming is within the limits of natural climate variability and does not require a separate explanation

Warming is the result of the exit from the cold Small ice age.

The warming has been observed for too short a time, so it is impossible to say with sufficient confidence whether it is happening at all

It should be taken into account that in addition to the influence of anthropogenic factors, the climate on our planet certainly depends on many processes occurring in the Earth - Sun - Space system. In addition to random, but repeated collisions with large asteroids and comets in the history of the Earth and catastrophic in their consequences, the Earth’s atmosphere also experiences periodically repeated impacts of planetary and cosmic origin. Four groups of such cycles can be distinguished.

“Extra-long” periods—150–300 million years—are characterized by the most significant climate changes on Earth. They are most likely associated with the period of revolution of the Sun around the center of mass of our Galaxy and the passage of the Solar system through regions of the Milky Way with different densities of gas and dust matter, which, depending on its composition, can both screen the radiation of the Sun and increase its intensity thermonuclear reactions.

“Long” cycles associated with the tectonics of lithospheric plates and the intensity of volcanic activity. They are reliably established in the paleogeological record, but are irregular in period and last from several to tens of millions of years.

“Short” periods, so-called. "Milankovitch cycles", lasting 93,000, 41,000 and 25,750 years, caused by periodic fluctuations in the perihelion of the Earth's orbit and the orientation of the Earth's rotation axis, determined by the phenomena of nutation and precession. Of these two astronomical phenomena, the general insolation of the surface is primarily influenced by the periodic change in the angle of inclination of the Earth’s rotation axis to the plane of its orbit, that is, nutation.

And finally, the last category is conventionally called “ultra-short” periods. They are associated with the rhythms of solar activity, among which it is assumed that there are periods lasting 6000, 2300, 210 and 87 years, in addition to the certainly existing 22 and 11 year cycles of solar activity.

Superposition of periods of intensity changes that are different in nature and duration solar radiation, reaching our planet, in combination with the thermal inertia of the oceans, the movement of continents, volcanic activity, and possibly the influence of reverse reactions of the entire earth's biosphere as a whole - and determines the average temperature of the earth's surface and the distribution of climatic zones in different geological eras. This complex complex of many alternating geophysical and cosmic factors affecting the earth’s climate may, according to some, determine the warming observed in our time. Man is currently unable to influence processes of such magnitude.

Criticism of the theory of global warming

The famous British naturalist and TV presenter David Bellamy believes that the most important environmental problem planet is a decrease in the area of ​​tropical forests in South America. In his opinion, the danger of global warming is greatly exaggerated, while the disappearance of forests, in which two-thirds of all animal and plant species on the planet live, is indeed a real and serious threat to humanity.

Russian theoretical physicist V.G. came to a similar conclusion. Gorshkov, based on the theory of biotic regulation he has been developing since 1979, according to which irreversible climate changes are more likely to be caused not by greenhouse gases, but by a disruption of the homeostatic mechanism of global moisture and heat transfer, which is provided by the vegetation of the planet - subject to some threshold reduction in the area of ​​natural forests .

Famous American physicist Freeman Dyson argues that measures proposed to combat global warming have long ceased to belong to the realm of science, but are politicking and speculative business.

The founder of the Weather Channel, journalist John Coleman, considers “so-called global warming the greatest scam in history.” According to him, “Some vile and cowardly scientists, for the sake of protecting the environment and various political goals, are blatantly manipulating long-term weather observations to create the illusion of global warming among people. There will be no rapid climate change. Humankind's impact on the Earth's climate is negligible. Our planet is not in danger. In one or two decades, the inconsistency of the theory of global warming will be obvious to everyone.”

Danish economist Bjorn Lomborg believes that global warming is not as threatening as some experts and journalists echo them. "The topic of warming is overheated," he says. Lomborg's views are set out in detail in the book Cool It! Global warming. Skeptical leadership."

Professor A.P. Kapitsa, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, head of the department of the Geographical Faculty of Moscow State University, considers humanity’s contribution to climate change to be insignificant against the backdrop of cosmic and geophysical factors.

A number of critics point out that in the past (for example, in the Eocene) temperatures were much higher than today, and although many species became extinct then, further life flourished.

This is the increase in average temperature on Earth due to greenhouse gas emissions: methane, carbon dioxide, water vapor. Some scientists believe that this is the fault of industry: manufacturing and cars generate emissions. They absorb some of the infrared radiation coming from the Earth. Due to the retained energy, the atmosphere layer and the surface of the planet are heated.

Global warming will lead to the melting of glaciers, and they, in turn, will raise the level of the World Ocean. Photo: depositphotos

However, there is another theory: global warming is a natural process. After all, nature itself also produces greenhouse gases: during volcanic eruptions, there is a colossal release of carbon dioxide, permafrost, or more precisely, the soil in the regions permafrost releases methane and so on.

The problem of warming was discussed back in the last century. In theory it leads to the flooding of many coastal cities, to strong storms, heavy rainfall and long droughts, which will result in problems with agriculture. And mammals will migrate, and some species may become extinct in the process.

Is there warming in Russia?

Scientists are still debating whether warming has begun. Meanwhile, Russia is heating up. According to Roshydrometcenter data from 2014, the average temperature is rising faster than others by European territory. And this happens in all seasons except winter.

The temperature rises most rapidly (0.052 °C/year) in the northern and European territories of Russia. Next come Eastern Siberia (0.050 °C/year), Central Siberia(0.043), Amur and Primorye (0.039), Baikal and Transbaikalia (0.032), Western Siberia (0.029 °C/year). From federal districts the highest rates of temperature increase are in Central, the lowest in Siberian (0.059 and 0.030 °C/year, respectively). Image: WWF

“Russia remains the part of the world where climate warming during the 21st century will significantly exceed average global warming,” the agency’s report says.

Many scientists believe that it is more correct to track global warming through the oceans. Judging by our seas, it has begun: the average temperature of the Black Sea is growing by 0.08°C per year, Sea of ​​Azov- by 0.07°C. In the White Sea, the temperature rises by 2.1°C per year.

Despite the fact that water and air temperatures are rising, experts are in no hurry to call it global warming.

“The fact of global warming has not yet been reliably established,” says Evgeniy Zubko, associate professor at the School natural sciences Far Eastern federal university. - Temperature changes are the result of the simultaneous action of several processes. Some lead to warming, others to cooling.”

One of these processes is a decline in solar activity, which leads to significant cooling. There will be thousands of times fewer sunspots than usual, this happens once every 300-400 years. This phenomenon is called minimum solar activity. According to the forecasts of scientists from Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov, the decline will continue from 2030 to 2040.

Has the belt movement begun?

Climatic zones - areas with stable weather, elongated horizontally. There are seven of them: equatorial, tropical, temperate, polar, subequatorial, subtropical and subpolar. Our country is large, it is surrounded by arctic, subarctic, temperate and subtropical regions.

Climatic zones of the Earth according to B. P. Alisov. Image: Kliimavöötmed

“There is a possibility of the belts moving and, moreover, the shift is already underway,” says expert Evgeniy Zubko. What does it mean? Due to the displacement, warm edges will become colder and vice versa.

In Vorkuta ( arctic belt) green grass will grow, winters will be warmer, summers will be hotter. At the same time, it will get colder in the area of ​​Sochi and Novorossiysk (subtropics). Winters will not be as mild as they are now, when snow falls and children are allowed to stay away from school. Summer won't be that long.

"Most shining example belt shifts are the “offensive” of deserts,” says the climatologist. This is an increase in the area of ​​deserts due to human activity - intensive ploughing. Residents of such places have to move, cities disappear, as does the local fauna.

At the end of the last century, the Aral Sea, located in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, began to dry up. The rapidly growing Aralkum desert is approaching it. The fact is that in Soviet times, a lot of water was drained from the two rivers that feed the sea for cotton plantations. This gradually dried up most of the sea, fishermen lost their jobs - the fish disappeared.

Someone left their homes, some residents remained, and they are having a hard time. The wind lifts salt and toxic substances, which negatively affects people's health. Therefore, they are now trying to restore the Aral Sea.

Every year, 6 million hectares are subject to desertification. For comparison, this is like all the forests of the Republic of Bashkortostan. The UN estimates that the cost of desert expansion is approximately US$65 billion per year.

Why do the belts move?

“Climate zones are shifting due to deforestation and changing river beds,” says climatologist Evgeny Zubko.

The Water Code of the Russian Federation prohibits artificially changing riverbeds without the appropriate permits. Parts of the river may become silted, and then it will die. But uncoordinated changes in riverbeds still occur, sometimes on the initiative of local residents, sometimes to organize some kind of business near the reservoir.

What can we say about cutting down. In Russia, 4.3 million hectares of forest are destroyed annually, according to the World Resources Institute. More than the entire land fund of the Kaluga region. Therefore, Russia is among the top 5 world leaders in deforestation.

This is a disaster for nature and humans: when forest cover is destroyed, animals and plants die, rivers flowing nearby become shallow. Forests absorb harmful greenhouse gases, purifying the air. Without them, nearby cities will suffocate.

What does warming threaten humanity with and what to do to prevent a catastrophe

In recent years, the climate on Earth has changed noticeably: some countries suffer from abnormal heat, others from winters that are too harsh and snowy, unusual for these places.

Ecologists talk about global climate change, including an increase in average annual temperature causing the melting of glaciers and rising sea levels. In addition to warming, there is also an imbalance in all natural systems, which leads to changes in precipitation patterns, temperature anomalies and an increase in the frequency of extreme events such as hurricanes, floods and droughts.

According to scientists, over ten months of 2015, the average temperature of the planet was 1.02 °C higher than that recorded in the 19th century (when monitoring of changes in global temperature began). The one degree threshold was exceeded for the first time in modern history. Scientists agree that it is human activity - the burning of oil, gas and coal - that leads to the greenhouse effect, which causes an increase in average temperatures. Experts note that the period between 2000 and 2010 saw the strongest increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the last 30 years. According to the World Meteorological Organization, their concentration in the atmosphere reached a record high in 2014.

What threatens climate warming?

If states do not begin to seriously address the problem of environmental protection, by 2100 the temperature on the planet may rise by 3.7-4.8 °C. Climatologists warn: irreversible consequences for the environment will occur even with warming of more than 2 °C.

To draw maximum attention to climate problems, the UN attracted not only politicians and scientists, but also celebrities to the discussion. Hollywood actor Robert Redford warned in a statement that the international community's "time for half-measures and denial of climate change is over."

What consequences await the planet if we fail to stop the rise in temperature?

Natural disasters

Climate zones will shift, weather changes will become more dramatic ( very coldy, giving way to sudden thaws in winter, an increase in the number of abnormally hot days in summer). The frequency and severity of abnormal events such as droughts and floods will increase.

The connection between climate change and the occurrence of natural disasters was proven by American scientists who discovered traces of warming when studying tropical cyclones in the Pacific Ocean, unusually high summer temperatures in Europe, China, South Korea and Argentina, and forest fires V American state California. Climate change has also catalyzed droughts in Africa and the Middle East, snowstorms in Nepal and torrential downpours causing flooding in Canada and New Zealand.

Uninhabitable areas

Some countries may become uninhabitable by 2100 due to rising humidity and high average temperatures. According to a study by American scientists, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and other countries in the Middle East are at risk.

According to climatologists, at the current rate of growth in greenhouse gas emissions, by 2070 the average air temperature in the Persian Gulf countries could reach 74-77 °C. This will make the areas uninhabitable for people. An exception may be large metropolitan areas with developed system conditioning. But even in them, people will be able to leave the house only at night.

A blow to biodiversity

According to some scientists, we are in the middle of the sixth in the history of the Earth mass extinction species. And this time this process is caused by human actions. If climate warming is not stopped, many ecosystems and the species of living beings that comprise them will become less diverse and less saturated.

There are predictions that up to 30-40% of plant and animal species will disappear because their habitats will change faster than they can adapt to these changes.

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a lack of drinking water, famine and epidemics

UN experts warn that warming will negatively affect crop yields, especially in underdeveloped countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America which will lead to food problems. According to scientists, by 2080 the number of people facing hunger could increase by 600 million people.

Another important consequence of climate change may be a shortage of drinking water. In regions with arid climates (Central Asia, Mediterranean, South Africa, Australia, etc.) the situation will worsen due to a decrease in precipitation.

Hunger, lack of water, and the migration of insects can lead to an increase in epidemics and the spread of tropical diseases such as malaria and fever in the northern regions.

Climate change may not only affect human health, but also increase the risk of political divisions and conflicts over access to water and food resources.

Rising sea levels

One of the most tangible consequences of climate warming will likely be the melting of glaciers and rising sea levels. Millions of people on the coast will die from frequent flooding or be forced to relocate, UN analysts predict.

According to the expert community, sea level rise in the 21st century will be up to 1 m (in the 20th century - 0.1-0.2 m). In this case, lowlands, coastal areas and small islands will be most vulnerable.

The first to fall into the risk zone are the Netherlands, Bangladesh and small island states such as the Bahamas and Maldives.

Significant areas may be flooded in countries such as Russia, the USA, the UK, Italy, Germany, Denmark, Belgium, Iraq, Thailand and Vietnam. Serious damage threatens China, where about 140 million people could lose their homes, and Japan, where the homes of more than 30 million people, a quarter of the country's population, could be flooded.

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Estimated consequences for the Russian Federation

The climate in Russia is also changing noticeably. Sudden changes in weather, abnormally high and abnormally low temperatures are more common.

According to the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation, in our country from 1990 to 2010 the number natural disasters, such as floods, floods, mudflows and hurricanes, has increased almost fourfold and continues to increase by approximately 6-7% per year. Environmentalists predict that their number could double over the next ten years.

According to the World Bank, the annual damage from the impact of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena in Russia amounts to 30-60 billion rubles.

According to Roshydromet calculations, in Russia the average annual temperature is growing 2.5 times faster than throughout the world. The warming is most active in the northern regions of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Emergency Situations adds. Thus, in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century the temperature may rise by 7 °C. By the middle of the 21st century, the average winter temperature throughout Russia may increase by 2-5 °C. The increase in summer temperatures will be less pronounced and will be 1-3 °C by mid-century, rescuers believe.

The head of Roshydromet, Alexandra Frolova, believes that climate warming for Russia brings not only risks, but also benefits.

Threats associated with warming:

An increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of droughts in some regions, extreme precipitation, floods, and cases of soil waterlogging dangerous for agriculture in others;

Increased fire danger in forests and peatlands;

Disruption of the usual way of life of indigenous northern peoples;

Degradation of permafrost with damage to buildings and communications;

Disturbance of ecological balance, displacement of some biological species by others;

Increased energy costs for air conditioning in summer season for a large area of ​​the country.

Positive changes:

Warming in the Arctic will increase the duration of navigation along the Northern Sea Route and facilitate the development of oil and gas fields on the shelf;

The heating season will be shortened and, accordingly, energy consumption will be reduced;

The northern border of agriculture will shift to the north, due to which the area of ​​agricultural land will increase, especially in Western Siberia and in the Urals.

Extinguishing peat bogs in the Tver region, 2014

© TASS/Sergey Bobylev

What to do

According to scientists, humanity is unlikely to be able to completely prevent climate change. However, the international community is able to curb rising temperatures to avoid irreversible environmental consequences. To do this, it is necessary to limit greenhouse gas emissions, develop alternative energy and develop a strategy to reduce risks due to warming.

Adaptation of social life to new conditions

Plans to minimize damage from climate change must cover all areas of human activity, including healthcare, agriculture and infrastructure.

In Russia, for example, it is necessary to change storm drains, prepare for stormy winds (recalculate the strength of structures), change the fire extinguishing system - droughts increase the fire danger, explains Alexey Kokorin. In Kyrgyzstan, the snow limit in the Tien Shan has risen, this has caused problems with livestock grazing - measures must be taken to preserve pastures.

However, different states different opportunities to mitigate the impact of climate change. For example, Holland and Bangladesh are experiencing the same problems: it has become more storms, sea levels have risen. But Holland already has an action plan; they know how they will strengthen the dams and where they will get the funds. But in Bangladesh there is none of this, and 10 times more coastline and 10 times larger population, and on dangerous areas There are 100 million people who will need to be resettled somewhere.

Thus, Kokorin adds, most of the measures necessary for adaptation are quite simple and understandable, but their implementation requires funds and effective planning.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions

Climatologists estimate that to keep temperature increases to 2°C, countries will need to halve global emissions relative to 1990 levels by 2050, and to zero by the end of the 21st century.

According to PwC analysts, since 2000, Russia has on average reduced carbon dioxide emissions by 3.6% per year, the UK by 3.3%, France by 2.7%, and the USA by 2.3%. The average annual reduction in carbon emissions over the past 15 years has been 1.3%.

However, these efforts are not enough. To prevent irreversible climate change, annual reductions in carbon dioxide emissions must be at least 6.3% until 2100.

This means, on the one hand, it is necessary to introduce energy-saving technologies, and on the other hand, to switch to alternative energy sources.

Sun or atom

Several energy sources are safe for the atmosphere in terms of emissions: hydropower, nuclear power plants and new renewable sources - sun, wind, tides. Hydropower has physically observable limits (there are not many rivers on Earth), wind and tides can only be used locally, so the main sources of energy of the future are the Sun and atom, says Professor Rafael Harutyunyan, Deputy Director of the Institute for the Safe Development of Nuclear Energy of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

According to the expert, based on the current level of technology development, nuclear energy looks more solid: alternative renewable energy sources now account for 2% of global consumption, and nuclear power already provides 16% of the world’s electricity (in developed countries - more than 70%, in the North western Russia - 40%).

The advantage of nuclear energy is that it is a large-scale energy sector, these are power plants for large industrial agglomerations and large cities.

The trump card of solar energy is the almost universal availability and dynamic development of technology. In addition, solar energy is being improved and can become much more economical, unlike nuclear energy, which cannot be significantly reduced in cost, Alexey Kokorin, head of the Climate and Energy program at WWF Russia, argues with nuclear supporters.

Advisor to the President of the Russian Federation and his representative on climate issues, Alexander Bedritsky, believes that it is impossible to completely solve the problem of reducing greenhouse gas emissions through renewable energy sources. The expert cited solar and wind energy as an example. According to him, providing industry with energy using solar panels in northern countries, such as Russia, where there is sun for half a year in the north, but not for half a year, it’s impossible.

The same, according to Bedritsky, applies to wind energy. It is suitable for individual consumption, but not for industrial production. Wind turbines are used in many regions, mainly in coastal areas, but they do not completely cover the territory.

In Russia, adds the adviser to the Russian President on climate change, approximately a third of the energy sector is based not on mineral raw materials, but on nuclear and hydropower.

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Who will pay

Negotiations on climate change are complicated by differences between rich and poor countries.

The transition to environmentally friendly energy sources requires significant costs. Developed countries insist that all negotiators contribute to these efforts. In turn, developing countries believe that responsibility for climate change lies with industrial powers, which have long been polluting the atmosphere with greenhouse gases.

According to Secretary General UN Ban Ki-moon, a special responsibility in the fight against climate change and the consequences of this phenomenon lies with developed countries. In 2010, the Green Climate Fund was created to help developing countries under the auspices of the UN. Funds are allocated mostly by developed countries. It is planned that by 2020 the volume of the fund should be $100 billion, but so far it contains just over $10 billion.

Now developed countries are experiencing a serious burden on state budgets, so they prefer that climate finance go through private investment or loans and borrowings, explains Alexey Kokorin. Vulnerable countries are not ready to take loans.

Despite the fact that Russia has no obligation to contribute funds to the Green Climate Fund, Moscow is ready to support it on a voluntary basis, adds Alexander Bedritsky. First of all, this concerns the CIS countries.

In November 2015, the fund approved $168 million for the first eight projects to help developing countries adapt to the negative impacts of climate change. We are talking about three projects in Africa, three in the Asia-Pacific region and two in Latin America.

Burning garbage in India

© AP Photo/Anupam Nath

Paris Conference and new agreement

On December 12, 2015, at the UN World Climate Conference in Paris, 195 delegations from around the world approved a global agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2020.

April 22, 2016 1 . On behalf of Russia, the document was signed by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Khloponin.

The agreement will come into force once it is ratified by 55 countries that account for at least 55% of total global greenhouse gas emissions.

Main provisions of the document

The main goal of the new agreement, which was confirmed by all participating countries, is to achieve a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and thereby keep the increase in average temperature on the planet within 1.5-2 °C.

Currently, the efforts of the world community are not enough to curb global warming, the document notes. Thus, the level of total emissions risks reaching 55 gigatons in 2030, while, according to UN experts, this maximum mark should be no more than 40 gigatons. “In this regard, countries participating in the Paris Agreement need to take more intensive measures,” the document emphasizes.

The agreement has a framework nature; its participants have yet to determine the volume of greenhouse gas emissions, measures to prevent climate change, as well as the rules for implementing this document. But key provisions have already been agreed upon.

The parties to the agreement undertake:

Adopt national plans to reduce emissions, technological upgrading and adaptation to climate change; these state obligations should be reviewed and strengthened every five years;

Systematically reduce CO2 emissions into the atmosphere; To achieve this, by 2020 it is necessary to develop national strategies for the transition to a carbon-free economy;

Provide $100 billion annually to the Green Climate Fund to help underdeveloped and most vulnerable countries. After 2025, this amount should be revised upward “taking into account the needs and priorities of developing countries”;

Set up international exchange"green" technologies in the field of energy efficiency, industry, construction, agriculture, etc.

US President Barack Obama

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The agreement aims to reduce the carbon pollution that threatens our planet, as well as create new jobs and grow the economy through investment in low-carbon technologies. This could help delay or avoid some of the worst impacts of climate change.

US President Barack Obama

At the end of the summit, 189 states had submitted preliminary plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The five countries with the largest emissions reported the following reductions relative to 1990:

European Union - 40%;

Russia - 30%;

USA - 12-14%;

China - 6-18%;

Japan - 13%.

Officially, countries must voice their commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the day the document is signed. The most important condition is that they must be no lower than the already stated goals in Paris.

To monitor the implementation of the Paris Agreement and the obligations undertaken by countries, it is proposed to form a special working group. It is planned that it will begin work in 2016.

Disagreements and ways to resolve them

"Should" was replaced with "should"

At the stage of discussion of the treaty, Russia advocated that the agreement be legally binding for all countries. The US opposed this. According to an unnamed diplomat quoted by the Associated Press, the American delegation insisted that the word “should” be replaced with “should” in the section on emissions reduction targets in the final document.

This structure of the treaty makes it possible to avoid ratification of the document in the US Congress, which is extremely skeptical about environmental policy Obama.

No specific obligations

Another proposal of the Russian Federation was the division of responsibility for emissions among all countries. However, developing countries opposed this. In their opinion, most of the burden should fall on developed countries, which have long been the main sources of emissions. Meanwhile, now the top five “polluters” of the planet, along with the USA and the EU, include China and India, which are considered developing countries. Russia is in fifth place in terms of CO2 emissions.

Throughout its history, humanity has enjoyed free natural resources home planet. The benefits that nature placed at our disposal were accepted as given. Parallel to the development of human civilization there was a merciless appropriation of earthly wealth. Even though our earthly home is huge, it is able to independently regulate the processes occurring in nature, but still, the human environment today does not look as ideal as it was during the last 1-2 thousand years ago. One of the most visible consequences of the development of human civilization is global climate change.

Over the past 150-200 years, when humanity entered the active phase of its development, the climate on the planet has changed quite noticeably. The geography of the planet has changed, the living conditions in different parts Earth. Where previously ideal weather conditions were observed, the climate changes, the habitat becomes harsher and less hospitable. Fewer and fewer conditions remain necessary for the normal and prosperous existence of the human race.

What is the essence of the warming problem?

It should be recognized that the consequences of global warming are not entirely the result of thoughtless human activity. Changes in the planet's climatic conditions are influenced by a number of factors.

On the scale of the Universe, our civilization is a fleeting period. What are 200 thousand years of existence of Homo sapiens compared to 4.5 billion years of life of our planet? Over the entire existence of the Earth, the climate on its surface has changed several times. Dry and hot periods gave way global cooling which ended with ice ages. Huge glaciers covered most of the planet with their shell. The further consequences of global warming in prehistoric times became catastrophic. Melting glaciers led to large-scale floods. The rapidly rising ocean level on the planet led to the flooding of vast areas.

According to scientists, the process of global warming was started a long time ago and without human intervention. This is facilitated by the natural course of geophysical and astrophysical processes occurring in our solar system, in our galaxy and in the Universe. The theory that existed at the end of the 20th century that humans are to a certain extent involved in the deterioration of the climate situation in the world has now been revised. Analysis of the disasters that have engulfed our planet in the last 20-30 years, the study of astrophysical and geophysical data have given scientists reason to believe that the emerging changes in climate are dynamic. To date, two factors have been identified that influence changes weather conditions on the planet and climate transformation:

• natural;
• anthropogenic.

The first factor is uncontrollable and is explained by the inevitable processes occurring in space. The increasing expansion of the Universe affects the astrophysical parameters of the movement of all celestial bodies. In other words, the presence of climate changes on our planet is a consequence of the cyclical nature of astronomical processes.

While one category of scientists is closely studying the influence of the Universe on earth processes, the other part began to study the scale of the negative impact of human civilization on the natural environment. The impact of anthropogenic factors began with the advent of the industrial revolution. New technologies and the subsequent globalization of the economy have led to a rapid deterioration environmental situation on the planet. As a result, anthropogenic factors began to influence the environment and influence planetary climate.

The harm caused is local in nature, and therefore is not so noticeable at the regional level. However, in total, the harmful impact of humans on the Earth’s biosphere is global. As a result of emissions of petrochemical and metallurgical enterprises The content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing. Deforestation of equatorial forests in Brazil, in turn, leads to a decrease in oxygen in the atmosphere of our planet. All this and much more leads to the greenhouse effect. As a result, there is an increase in the average temperature on the planet, polar ice is melting and, accordingly, the level of the world's oceans is rising.

It becomes obvious that it is necessary to radically change our attitude towards our own planet. This can be achieved by eliminating or limiting anthropogenic factors that have a harmful effect on our environment.

The problem is on a planetary scale, so it is necessary to study it and find a solution with common effort. Individual activities of some individual international organizations and social movements will not solve the problem. But unfortunately, at present there is a global situation of misunderstanding of what is happening, lack of a real and objective assessment of the factors influencing climate conditions.

New facts in the history of global warming

Studies of ice samples taken from a two-kilometer depth at the Vostok station in Antarctica have shown a significant change in the chemical composition of the Earth’s atmosphere over two hundred thousand years. As mentioned, the climate on Earth has not always been uniform and stable. However, now information has appeared in the scientific community that the main causes of global warming in prehistoric times were associated not only with geophysical processes, but also with high concentrations of greenhouse gases - CO2 and CH4 (methane). Glaciers have always melted. Another thing is that today this process is happening faster. Global warming on earth can occur much sooner - not in a thousand, not in a hundred, but much faster - within ten years.

The 20th century looks like a record-breaking century in terms of the amount of greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere. We can say that this is due to the influence of cyclical natural factors, however, today these processes clearly cannot be done without human participation. Climate change occurs more dynamically than is determined by the natural cycle. Real confirmation of this is the rapidly increasing number of cataclysms on a planetary scale.

According to scientists from the Faculty of Meteorology at the University of Washington, in the 80s of the 20th century, the planet experienced an average of 100-120 disasters and natural disasters per year. In the 2000s, the number of hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and other natural disasters occurring annually on the planet increased 5 times. Droughts began to occur much more often, and the length of the season monsoon rains increased.

According to meteorologists, this is a direct consequence of the fact that fluctuations in atmospheric temperatures on the planet have become significant. Seasonality on Earth ceases to be the norm, the boundaries between warm and cold periods become clearer and more expressive. Cold winter abruptly gives way to hot summer and vice versa. Following the warm season, cold weather comes sharply. In areas of the planet where a mild maritime climate prevailed, the number of hot and dry days increases. In cold regions, instead of bitter frosts, a prolonged thaw is observed.

The intensive increase in the use of organic fuels in industry and in human life leads to an increase in emissions of CO2, methane and nitrogen oxide into the atmosphere. The predominance of these gases in the earth's atmosphere prevents heat exchange between air layers, creating a greenhouse effect. Earth's surface, heated by solar energy and “wrapped” in an air coat of greenhouse gases, gives off less heat and, accordingly, heats up faster.

Most of all, an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases is fraught with the following circumstances:

• increase in air mass temperature;
• changes in the localization of precipitation formation zones in the earth’s atmosphere;
• increasing intensity and expressiveness of climate and weather phenomena;
• melting glaciers;
• reduction of inventories fresh water;
• rising sea levels;
• changing existing ecosystems on the planet.

Change average annual temperature just 1-2 degrees leads to irreversible consequences that entail chain reaction. The rising average temperature on the planet is leading to the rapid melting of glaciers on the planet, and the area of ​​the ice shell of Greenland and Antarctica is decreasing. The average annual thickness decreases snow cover in Siberia and the Canadian tundra. The ice cover that binds the Arctic Ocean is shrinking.

The glaciers of Greenland and Antarctica - the richest natural reserves of fresh water on the planet - are irreversibly dissolving into ocean salt water. The water level of the world's oceans is rising, but due to rising sea temperatures and desalination, the population is decreasing commercial fish. Accordingly, fishing is also declining, and as a result of natural evaporation, vast areas of agricultural land are becoming scarce. In place of fields and rice paddies, zones of semi-deserts and deserts are rapidly appearing, completely unsuitable for growing agricultural crops.

As a direct consequence of global temperature changes, famine and large-scale coastal flooding are becoming an increasingly likely threat to humanity.

The amount of water resulting from the rapid melting of the glaciers of Greenland and Antarctica will lead to a rise in the water level of the world's oceans by 11-15 meters. Huge areas will be flooded in the countries of Europe, Asia, Africa and states located in the Western Hemisphere, where up to 60% of the planet's population lives.

According to scientists, flooding sea ​​water coastal areas in the next 20-30 years will cause natural migration of the population inland. An increase in temperature in the permafrost zone will lead to swamping of vast areas of Western and Eastern Siberia, which will ultimately become unsuitable for development. Changes in the intensity of precipitation and a decrease in fresh water supplies will lead to the beginning of a new struggle for the redistribution of resources.

Finding a solution to global warming

Climate change on the planet is not a private problem. This is a slow-moving disaster that will eventually affect everyone. In this regard, ways to solve it are the task of governments of all countries. It is not for nothing that the scale of the problem and its aspects are dominant and are discussed at the highest international level.

The efforts achieved to date in this direction are encouraging. For the first time at the state level it was recognized that it is a person, his commercial activity lead to an increase in the amount of greenhouse gases in the planet's atmosphere. Under pressure from the scientific community and public environmental organizations around the world, politicians in the most developed countries signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. This agreement is intended to regulate the amount of industrial emissions that contain high amounts of greenhouse gases. The main goal of the Kyoto Protocol was the desire to reduce the volume of harmful emissions by 5.2% and bring pollution parameters to the 1990 level. The atmosphere, as a result, should be cleared of harmful gaseous compounds, which will lead to a reduction in the greenhouse effect.

Within the framework of the Kyoto document, quotas for harmful emissions were determined:

• for EU countries, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions will need to be reduced by 8%;
• for the United States, emissions would need to be reduced by 7%;
• Canada and Japan have pledged to reduce this figure by 6%;
• for the Baltic countries and Eastern Europe, the amount of greenhouse gases in emissions will have to decrease by 8%;
• a special, favorable regime has been created for the Russian Federation and Ukraine, as a result of which the economies of both countries must adhere to the parameters of harmful gas emissions at the 1990 level.

Despite the global scale of the event, not all countries with massive sources of emissions have ratified this agreement at the state level. For example, the United States, the country with the largest economy on the planet, has not yet completed the ratification process. Canada generally withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol, and China and India only recently joined the participating countries international agreements on climate conservation.

The latest achievement in the fight to preserve the planet's climate was the Paris International Climate Conference, held in December 2019. During the conference, new quotas for greenhouse gas emissions were determined and new requirements were announced for the governments of countries whose economies are dependent on the use of mineral species fuels at industrial facilities. The new agreement defined ways for the development of alternative energy sources. The emphasis is on the development of hydropower, increasing the heat content in production technologies, and the use of solar panels.

The fight against global warming today

Unfortunately, today industrial giants scattered around the world have concentrated more than 40% of the world economy in their hands. The noble desire to limit the amount of emissions of harmful components into the atmosphere by introducing restrictions in the field of industrial production in a number of countries looks like an attempt to put artificial pressure on the economies of competitors.

Global warming in Russia is assessed as one of the limiting factors in the development of the domestic economy. Despite the country's active position on the world stage in matters of climate protection and conservation, the country's economy is heavily dependent on the use of mineral fuels. Weak energy intensity domestic industry and the slow transition to modern energy-intensive technologies are becoming a serious obstacle to real achievements in this direction.

Our near future will show how true all this turns out to be. Whether global warming is a myth or a cruel reality, other generations of businessmen and politicians will find out.

If you have any questions, leave them in the comments below the article. We or our visitors will be happy to answer them

IN Lately Many scientists say that global warming is happening on Earth. Each of us notices this process. Indeed, in recent years the weather has changed significantly: winters are prolonged, spring comes late, and summers are sometimes very hot.

But still, despite the fact that the effects of global warming have been recorded by many scientific observations, there are still endless discussions around this topic. Some scientists believe that the onset of an “ice age” is expected on Earth. Others make bleak predictions, while others believe that the catastrophic consequences of global warming for our planet are highly controversial. Which one is right? Let's try to understand this issue.

Global warming concept

How can we define this term? Global warming on Earth is a process that is a gradual increase in the average annual temperature in the surface layer of the atmosphere. It occurs due to an increase in concentration and also due to changes in volcanic or solar activity.

The problem of global warming began to particularly concern the world community at the end of the 20th century. Moreover, many scientists associate the rise in temperature with the development of industry, which emits methane, carbon dioxide and many other gases that cause the greenhouse effect. What is this phenomenon?

The greenhouse effect is an increase in the average annual temperature of air masses due to an increase in the concentration of water vapor, methane, etc. These gases are a kind of film that, like the glass of a greenhouse, easily passes through Sun rays and retains heat. However, there is a lot of scientific evidence indicating that the causes of global warming on Earth lie not only in the presence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. There are many hypotheses. However, none of them can be accepted with one hundred percent certainty. Let's consider those statements of scientists that deserve the most attention.

Hypothesis No. 1

Many scientists believe that the causes of global warming on our planet lie in the increase in solar activity. On this star, meteorologists sometimes observe the so-called, which are nothing more than powerful magnetic fields. This phenomenon causes changes in climate conditions.

For centuries, meteorologists have been counting sunspots that appear on the Sun. Based on the data obtained, the Englishman E. Mondoro in 1983 made an interesting conclusion that during the 14th-19th centuries, which is sometimes called the Little Ice Age, no such phenomenon was recorded on the Celestial Body. And in 1991, scientists from the Danish University of Meteorology studied “sunspots” recorded throughout the 20th century. The conclusion was clear. Scientists have confirmed the fact that there is a direct relationship between temperature changes on our planet and the activity of the Sun.

Hypothesis No. 2

Yugoslav astronomer Milanković suggested that global warming is largely caused by changes in the orbit in which the Earth revolves around the Sun. Affects climate change and the angle of rotation of our planet.

New characteristics in the position and movement of the Earth cause changes in the radiation balance of our planet, and, consequently, in its climate.

Influence of the World Ocean

There is an opinion that the culprit of global climate change on Earth is the World Ocean. Its water element is a large-scale inertial accumulator of solar energy. Scientists have found that intense heat exchange occurs between the thickness of the World Ocean and the lower layers of the atmosphere. This leads to significant climate changes.

In addition, there are about one hundred and forty trillion tons of dissolved carbon dioxide in ocean waters. Under certain natural conditions, this element enters the layers of the atmosphere, also influencing the climate, creating a greenhouse effect.

Action of volcanoes

According to scientists, one of the causes of global warming is volcanic activity. During eruptions, the atmosphere receives great amount carbon dioxide. This is the reason for the increase in average annual temperatures.

This mysterious solar system

One of the reasons for global warming on Earth, according to scientists, is the incompletely studied interactions that exist between the Sun and the planets in its system. Temperature changes on Earth occur due to different distributions of many types of energy.

Nothing can be changed

There is an opinion among scientists that global warming occurs on its own, without human influence or any external influences. This hypothesis also has a right to exist, since our planet is a large and very complex system with a lot of different structural elements. Supporters of this opinion have even built various mathematical models confirming the fact that natural fluctuations in the surface layer of air can range from 0 to 4 degrees.

Is it all our fault?

The most popular cause of global warming on our planet is the ever-increasing human activity, which significantly changes chemical composition atmosphere. As a result of the work industrial enterprises The air is increasingly saturated with greenhouse gases.

Specific figures speak in favor of this hypothesis. The fact is that over the past 100 years, the average air temperature in lower layers atmosphere increased by 0.8 degrees. For natural processes, this speed is too high, because previously similar changes took place over more than one millennium. Moreover, in last decades The rate of increase in air temperature increased even more.

Manufacturers' trick or truth?

As of today, this cannot be completely resolved. next question: “Global warming - myth or reality?” There is an opinion that climate change is nothing more than The history of consideration of this topic began in 1990. Before that, humanity was frightened by a horror story about ozone holes that are formed due to the presence of freon in the atmosphere. The content of this gas in the air was negligible, but, nevertheless, American refrigerator manufacturers took advantage of this idea. They did not use freon in the manufacture of their products and waged a merciless war against competitors. As a result, European companies began to replace cheap freon with an expensive analogue, increasing the cost of refrigerators.

Today's idea of ​​global warming plays into the hands of many political forces. After all, concern for the environment can bring many supporters into their ranks, who will allow them to gain the coveted power.

Scenarios for the development of events

Scientists' predictions about what consequences climate change will have on our planet are ambiguous. Due to the complexity of the processes occurring on Earth, the situation can develop according to different scenarios.

Thus, there is an opinion that global climate change will occur over centuries and even millennia. This is due to the complexity of the relationship between the oceans and the atmosphere. These powerful energy accumulators will not be able to rebuild in the shortest possible time.

But there is another scenario for the development of events, according to which on our planet, relatively quickly something global will happen warming. By the end of the 21st century, the air temperature will increase by 1.1 to 6.4 degrees compared to 1990. At the same time, intensive melting of the ice in the Arctic and Antarctica will begin. As a result, the waters of the World Ocean will increase their level. This process is still observed today. So, from 1995 to 2005. The thickness of the waters of the World Ocean has already risen by 4 cm. If this process does not slow down, then flooding due to global warming will become inevitable for many coastal lands. This will especially affect populated areas located in Asia.

Climate change processes in the western United States and northern Europe will cause an increase in the frequency of storms and precipitation. These lands will experience hurricanes twice as often as in the 20th century. What will be the impact of global warming in this scenario for Europe? In its central territories the climate will become changeable with warmer winters and rainy summer. Eastern and Southern Europe (including the Mediterranean) will experience heat and drought.

There are also forecasts by scientists according to which global changes in climate conditions in some parts of our planet will lead to short-term cold snaps. This will be facilitated by a slowdown warm currents caused by melting ice caps. Moreover, a complete stop of these huge carriers is also possible. solar energy, which will cause the onset of the next ice age.

The most unpleasant scenario could be a greenhouse catastrophe. It will be caused by the transition into the atmosphere of carbon dioxide contained in the water column of the World Ocean. In addition, as a result, methane will begin to be released from the permafrost. At the same time, a monstrous film will form in the lower layers of the Earth’s atmosphere, and the rise in temperatures will take on catastrophic proportions.

Consequences of global climate change

Scientists believe that failure to take drastic measures to reduce greenhouse emissions will lead to an increase in average annual temperatures by 1.4-5.8 degrees by 2100. The effects of global warming will include an increase in periods of hot weather that will become more extreme in nature. temperature conditions and longer. Moreover, the development of the situation will be ambiguous in different regions of our planet.

What are the projected consequences of global warming for the animal kingdom? Penguins, seals and polar bears, accustomed to living in polar ice. At the same time, many species of plants and animals will simply disappear if they cannot adapt to new living conditions.

Also, global warming will cause climate change on a global scale. According to scientists, this will cause an increase in the number of floods resulting from hurricanes. In addition, summer precipitation will decrease by 15-20%, which will cause desertification of many agricultural areas. And due to rising temperatures and water levels in the World Ocean, the borders natural areas will begin to move north.

What are the consequences of global warming for humans? In the short term, climate change threatens people with problems with drinking water and with cultivating agricultural land. They will also lead to an increase in the number infectious diseases. Moreover, the most serious blow will be dealt to the poorest countries, which, in principle, do not bear any responsibility for the upcoming climate changes.

According to scientists, about six hundred million people will be brought to the brink of famine. By 2080, residents of China and Asia could experience an environmental crisis caused by changing rainfall patterns and melting glaciers. The same process will lead to the flooding of many small islands and coastal areas. About one hundred million people will be in flood-prone areas, many of whom will be forced to migrate. Scientists predict the disappearance of even some states (for example, the Netherlands and Denmark). It is likely that part of Germany will also be under water.

As for the long-term perspective of global warming, it may become the next stage in human evolution. Our distant ancestors faced similar problems during periods when air temperatures increased by ten degrees after the Ice Age. Such changes in living conditions led to the creation of today's civilization.

Consequences of climate change for Russia

Some of our fellow citizens believe that the problem of global warming will only affect residents of other countries. After all, Russia is a country with a cold climate, and an increase in air temperature will only benefit it. The cost of heating housing and industrial buildings will be reduced. Agriculture also expects its benefits.

What, according to scientists' forecasts, is global warming and its consequences for Russia? Due to the extent of the territory and the wide variety of natural and climatic zones present on it, the results of changes in weather conditions will manifest themselves in different ways. In some regions they will have positive character, and in others - negative.

For example, on average, the heating period throughout the country should be reduced by 3-4 days. And this will provide significant savings energy resources. But at the same time, global warming and its consequences will have another effect. For Russia, this threatens to increase the number of days with high and even critical temperatures. In this regard, the costs of air conditioning industrial enterprises and buildings will increase. In addition, the growth of such events will become an unfavorable factor that worsens the health of people, especially those who live in large cities.

Global warming is becoming a threat and is already creating problems with the melting of permafrost. in such areas is dangerous for transport and engineering structures, as well as for buildings. In addition, when permafrost melts, the landscape will change with the formation of thermokarst lakes on it.

Conclusion

There is still no clear answer to the following question: “What is global warming - a myth or reality?” However, this problem is quite tangible and deserves attention. close attention. According to scientists' comments, it especially made itself felt in 1996-1997, when humanity was presented with many weather surprises in the form of about 600 different floods and hurricanes, snowfalls and rainstorms, droughts and earthquakes. During these years, the elements caused colossal material damage in the amount of sixty billion dollars and claimed eleven thousand lives.

The solution to the problem of global warming must be at the international level, with the participation of the world community and with the assistance of the government of each state. To preserve the health of the planet, humanity needs to adopt a program further actions, providing for control and reporting at each of its stages of implementation.