El Niño

Southern oscillation and El Niño (Span. EL Niño. - Kid, boy) is a global ocean-atmospheric phenomenon. Being a characteristic feature of the Pacific, El Niño and La Ninia (Span. La Niña. - Baby, girl) are temperature fluctuations surface water In the tropics of the eastern Pacific. The names of these phenomena borrowed from spanish local residents And for the first time introduced into the scientific circulation in 1923 by Gilbert Thomas Walker, mean Kid and Baby, respectively. Their influence on the climate southern Hemisphere It is difficult to overestimate. Southern oscillation (atmospheric component of the phenomena) reflects monthly or seasonal fluctuations of air pressure difference between the island of Tahiti and the city of Darwin in Australia.

The circulation named by the Walker is a significant aspect of the Pacific ENSO (EL Niño Southern Oscillation). Enso is a set of interacting parts of one global System Ocean-atmospheric climatic fluctuations that occur as a sequence of oceanic and atmospheric circulation. ENSO is the world's most famous source of online variability of weather and climate (from 3 to 8 years old). Enso has signatures in the quiet, Atlantic and Indian Oceans.

In the Pacific Ocean during significant warm events, El Niño, heating, expands to most of the Pacific tropics and becomes direct connection with the SOI intensity (index southern oscillation). While ENSO events are mainly between the quiet and Indian Oceans, ENSO events in the Atlantic Ocean are lagging behind the first to 12-18 months. Most of the countries that are subjected to ENSO events are developing, with economy, which strongly depends on the agricultural and fishing sectors. New opportunities to predict the start of ENSO events in three oceans may have global socio-economic importance. Since Enso is the global and natural part of the land climate, it is important to know whether the change in the intensity and frequency can be the result of global warming. Low-frequency changes have already been discovered. Interdecaded ENSO modulations can also exist.

El Niño and La Nina

El Niño and La Niña are officially defined as long-term sea surface temperature anomalies greater than 0.5 ° C, crossing the Pacific Ocean in its central tropical part. When a condition is observed +0.5 ° C (-0.5 ° C) in a period of up to five months, it is classified as the El Niño condition (La Niña). If an anomaly is preserved for five months or longer, it is classified as an EL Niño episode (La Niña). The latter occurs with irregular intervals in 2-7 years and, usually, lasts one or two years.

The first signs of El Niño are as follows:

1. Increased air pressure over the Indian Ocean, Indonesia and Australia.
2. The fall of air pressure over Tahiti and the rest of the central and eastern parts Pacific.
3. The trade winds in the southern part of the Pacific are weakened or sent to the east.
4. Warm air appears next to Peru, causing rains in the deserts.
5. Warm water spreads from the western part of the Pacific Ocean to the Eastern. It rains with them, causing it in areas where it is usually dry.

The warm flow of El Niño, consisting of a tropical water-depleted plankton and heated by his eastern duct in the equatorial flow, replaces the cold rich waterbold water water plankton, also known as the Peruvian flow, which contains large populations of fishing fish. Most Years the heating lasts only a few weeks or months, after which weather patterns return to a normal state and increases fish catch. Nevertheless, when conditions of El Niño It lasts a few months, there is more extensive ocean warming, and its economic blow to local fish produce for the foreign market may be serious.

The circulation of the volcker is visible on the surface as the eastern trade winds that move the water and the air heated by the sun. She also creates an oceanic append on the coast of Peru and Ecuador and cold waters rich in plankton go to the surface, increasing the population of fish. The Western Equatorial Part of the Pacific Ocean is characterized by warm, wet weather and low atmospheric pressure. The accumulated moisture falls in the form of typhors and storms. As a result, in this place the ocean is 60 cm higher than in its eastern part.

In the Pacific Ocean of La Niña is characterized by an unusually cold temperatures In the Eastern Equatorial Part compared with El Niño, which, in turn, is characterized by an unusually high temperature in the same region. Atlantic activity tropical cyclones In general, enhanced during La Niña. The La Niña condition often occurs after El Niño, especially when the latter is very strong.

South oscillation index (SOI)

The southern oscillation index is calculated from monthly or seasonal fluctuations of air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin.

Long-term negative values \u200b\u200bof SOI are often indicated by El Niño episodes. These negative values \u200b\u200busually accompany long warming by the central and eastern tropical parts of the Pacific Ocean, a decrease in the strength of Pacific Passyats and a decrease in precipitation in the East and the North of Australia.

The positive values \u200b\u200bof the SOI are associated with strong Pacific speats and warming the water temperature in the north of Australia, well known as the Episode of La Niña. Central and Eastern Water tropical parts Pacific becomes colder throughout this time. Together, all this increases the likelihood of larger amounts of precipitation in Eastern and Northern Australia than usual.

Extensive effect of Al Niño

Since the Warm Waters El Niño fueled the storms, it creates an increase in precipitation in the East-central and eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean.

In South America, the EL-Niño effect is more pronounced than in North America. El Niño is associated with warm and very wet summer periods (December - February) along the coast of Northern Peru and Ecuador, causing strong floods whenever the event is strong. Effects during February, March, April can be critical. South Brazil and Northern Argentina also experience more wet than usual conditions, but mainly during spring and early summer. Chile Central Region Gets Soft Winter With large quantity Rain, and Peruvian-Bolivian Plateau sometimes experiencing unusual winter snowfall for this region. Dry I. warm weather Observed in the Amazon River Basin, Colombia and Central America.

El Niño's direct effects lead to a decrease in humidity in Indonesia, increasing the likelihood of occurrence forest fires, in the Philippines and in Northern Australia. Also in June - August, dry weather is observed in the regions of Australia: Queensland, Victoria, New South Wales and Eastern Tasmania.

West Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Land, Bellingshausen and Amundsen Sea are covered with plenty of snow and ice during El Niño. The last two and the Watell Sea become warmer and are under higher atmospheric pressure.

In North America, usually, winter is warmer than usual, in the Midwest and in Canada, while in Central and southern California, in the north-west Mexico and southeast, the United States becomes wetter. North-Western Pacific, in other words, dried during El Niño. Conversely, during La Niña, the average west of the United States is dried. El Niño is also associated with a decrease in hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

East Africa, including Kenya, Tanzania and the pool of the White Nile, are experiencing long rains from March to May. Droughts pursue from December to February Southern and central regions of Africa, mainly Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Botswana.

Warm Pool of Western Hemisphere

The study of climatic data has shown that, approximately, in half the summer periods after El Niño, there is an unusual warming of the warm pool of the Western Hemisphere. It affects the weather in the region, and it seems there is a connection with the north-Atlantic oscillation.

Atlantic effect

The effect similar to El Niño is sometimes observed in the Atlantic Ocean, where water along the Equatorial African coast becomes warmer, and the coast of Brazil is colder. This can be attributed to the circulation of a volcaker over South America.

Non-cleamatic effects

Along the east coast of South America El Niño Reduces an upwelling cold, rich in plankton water, which supports large populations of fish, which, in turn, support the abundance of sea birds, which supports the industries of fertilizers.

Local fishing industry along coastline May experience a lack of fish during the long events of El Niño. The largest global fish collapse due to excessive fishery, which occurred in 1972 during El Niño, led to a decrease in the population of Peruvian Anchovs. During the events of 1982-83, the populations of South Stavrids and Anchovov decreased. Although the number of shells in warm water increased, but Heck went deep into the depth cold water, and shrimps and sardines left south. But the catch of some other fish species was increased, for example, an ordinary stavride increased its population during warm events.

Changes of location and types of fish due to changes of conditions ensured the problems for the fish industry. Peruvian Sardine left due to El Niño to the Chilean coast. Other conditions also led to further complications, such as the Chile government in 1991 created restrictions on fishing.

It is postulated that El Niño led to the disappearance of the Indian tribe of Mochiko and other tribes of the Precucumba Peruvian culture.

Causes that generate El Niño

Mechanisms that can cause EL Niño events are still investigated. It is difficult to choose templates that can show causes or allow predictions.

History of theory

The first mention of the term "El Niño" refers to the city when Captain Camilo Currilo reported on Congress Geographical society In Lima, that Peruvian sailors called the warm Northern current "El Niño", as it is most noticeable in the Christmas area. Nevertheless, even then the phenomenon was interesting only because of its biological influence on the efficiency of the fertilizer industry.

Normal conditions along the Western Peruvian coast is a cold southern course (Peruvian current) with an upwelling of water; Apuveling of Plankton leads to active oceanic productivity; Cold flows lead to a very dry climate on Earth. Similar conditions There are everywhere (California Current, Bengal). So replacing it on the warm Northern current leads to a decrease in biological activity in the ocean and to the storm rainfall, leading to flooding, on Earth. Communication with floodings was reported in the city of Pipe and Egueyur.

By the end of the nineteenth century, the predictions of climatic anomalies (for food) in India and Australia rose interest. Charles Todd in G. suggested that droughts in India and Australia occur at the same time. Norman Locomer pointed to the same thing in G. Gilbert Volker first introduced the term "southern oscillation".

Most of the twentieth century, El Niño was considered a large local phenomenon.

History of phenomena

The ENSO conditions happen every 2-7 years at least the last 300 years, but most of them were weak.

Great ENSO events happened in -, -, -, - and -1998.

The latest EL Niño events happened in -, - ,,, 1997-1998 and -2003.

El Niño 1997-1998, in particular, was strong and attracted to the phenomenon of international attention, while in the period - the city was unusual that El Niño was manifested very often (but mostly weakly).

El Niño in the history of civilization

Scientists tried to establish why at the turns and X centuries of our era at the opposite ends of the Earth almost simultaneously ceased existence of the two largest civilizations of the time. We are talking On the Mayan Indians and the fall of the Chinese dynasty of the Tang, followed by the period of internecine strife.

Both civilizations were in monsoon regions, the moisturizing of which depends on seasonal precipitation. However, at the specified time, apparently, rainy season It turned out to be unable to provide the amount of moisture sufficient to develop agriculture.

The drought coming and the hunger followed it led to the sunset of these civilizations, researchers believed. They bind climate change from natural phenomenon "El Niño", under which the temperature fluctuations of the surface waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean are meant in tropical latitudes. This leads to large-scale atmospheric circulation disorders, which causes droughts in traditionally wet regions and floods - in arid.

Scientists came to these conclusions, having studied the character of sedimentary deposits in China and mesoamerica belonging to the specified period. The last Emperor Tang dynasty died in 907 of our era, and the last famous Mayan calendar dates back to the 903 year.

Links

• The El Nino Theme Page Explains El Nino and La Nina, Provides Real Time Data, Forecasts, Animations, FAQ, Impacts and More.
• An international meteorological organization announced the detection of the start of the event La Ninia In the Pacific Ocean. (Reuters / YaHoONews)

Literature

• César N. Caviedes, 2001. El Niño in History: Storming Through The Ages University Press of Florida)
• Brian Fagan, 1999. Floods, Famines, and Emperors: El Niño and The Fate of Civilizations (Basic Books)
• Michael H. Glantz, 2001. Currents of Change., ISBN 0-521-78672-x
• Mike Davis, Late Victorian Holocausts: El Niño Famines and The Making Of The Third World (2001), ISBN 1-85984-739-0

Climate, climatology
Changing of the climate	Paleoclimatology El Niño Geochemical carbon cycle Proterozoic glaciation, glacial, small ice age thermal maximum (

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The overall representation of the el-niñochase of the temperature of the surface layer of water in the equatorial part of the Pacific, having a noticeable effect on the climate. In a narrower sense of the El Niño - phase of southern oscillation, in which the area of \u200b\u200bheated surface waters is shifted to the east. At the same time, the trade winds are weakened or generally stopped, an upwelling is slowed down in the eastern Pacific, from the coast of Peru. The opposite phase of oscillation is called La Ninia.

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The first signs of El Niño increase air pressure over Indian Ocean, Indonesia and Australia. Pressure pressure over Tahiti, above the central and eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean. Passatoves in the southern part of the Pacific Ocean until they stop and change the wind direction to the Western. aerial mass In Peru, rains in Peruvian deserts. This is also the effect of El Niño

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EL-Niño Climate different regions In South America, El Niño effect is most pronounced. Usually this phenomenon causes warm and very wet summer periods (from December to February) on the north coast of Peru and in Ecuador. If El Niño is strong, it causes strong floods. South Brazil and Northern Argentina are also experiencing more wet than usual periods, but, mainly in spring and early summer. In the center of Chile, there is a soft winter with plenty of rains, and in Peru and Bolivia sometimes occur unusual winter snowfall for this region.

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Losses and losses over 15 years ago, when El Niño has first shown its character, meteorologists have not yet connected the events of those years: droughts in India, fires in South Africa And hurricanes swept through Hawaii and Tahiti. Later, when the causes of these violations were found out, the losses that brought the peculiarity of the elements were calculated. But it turned out that this is not all. For example, rains and floods are direct consequences of natural disaster. But for them they came and secondary, - for example, mosquitoes spread on new swamps and brought the malaria epidemic in Colombia, Peru, India, Sri Lanka. In the state of Montana, people's bites poisonous snakes. They approached K. settlements, pursuing his prey - mice, and they left their settled places due to anhydrous, came closer to people and to the water.

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From the myths to the reality of the prediction of meteorologists confirmed: catastrophic events associated with the course of El Niño, one after another fell into Earth. Of course, it is very sad that all this happens now. But still it is impossible not to note that humanity first meets a global natural catastrophe, knowing its causes and the course of further development. El Niño's phenomenon is already quite well studied. Science has solved a riddle who tormented Peruvian fishermen. It was incomprehensible to them why sometimes in the Christmas period the ocean becomes warmer and sardine shoals from the coast of Peru disappear. Since the arrival of warm water coincided Merry Christmas, the course called El Niño, which in Spanish means "baby-boy". Fishermen, of course, interests direct reason Sardin care ...

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Fish leaves ... ... The fact is that sardines feed on phytoplankton. And algae needs sunlight and biogenic elements - primarily nitrogen, phosphorus. They are in ocean water, and their stock in the upper layer is constantly updated with vertical currents running from the bottom to the surface. But when the current El Niño turns back, to the side South America, its warm waters "lock" the output depths. Biogenic elements are not risening to the surface, the reproduction of algae is suspended. Fish leaves these places - she lacks food.

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Magellan's mistake is the first of Europeans who swam the largest ocean Planets, was Magellan. He called him "quiet." As soon as soon, it turned out, Magellan was mistaken. It is in this ocean that most Typhins are born, it is he who produces three quarters of the planet's clouds. Now we have also learned that El Niño is born in the Pacific Ocean sometimes causes many different troubles and disasters on the planet ...

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El Nino- This is an elongated tongue of strongly heated water. By area, it is equal to the territory of the United States. Hare Water evaporates more intense and faster "pumped" the atmosphere of energy. El Niño transmits it with 450 million megawatts, which is equivalent to the power of 300,000 large nuclear power plants. It is clear that this energy, according to the law of energy conservation, does not disappear. And now in Indonesia, a disaster broke out in full strength. First there, on the island of Sumatra, drought raging, then dried forests began to burn. In an impenetrable smoke that wrapped around the whole island, a plane crashed with a landing, a tanker and a cargo ship collided into the sea. The smokes reached Singapore and Malaysia ..

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Years to which El Niño was recorded 1864, 1871, 1877-1878, 1884, 1891, 1899, 1911-1912, 1925-1926, 1939-1941, 1957-1958, 1976, 1982-1983 , 1986-1987, 1992-1993, 1997-1998. , in 1790-1793, 1828, 1876-1878, 1891, 1925-1926, 1982-1983 and 1997-1998. Powerful phases of El Niño were recorded, whereas, for example, in 1991-1992, 1993, 1994 is a phenomenon, Often repeating, it was weakly pronounced. El Niño 1997-1998 It was so strong that attracted the attention of the world community and the press.

Australian meteorologists beat the alarm: In the coming year-two, the world is waiting for extreme weather provoked by the activation of the circular equatorial Pacific EL Niño's current, which, in turn, can provoke natural disasters, fault,
diseases and civil wars.

El Niño, previously known only to narrow specialists, the circular flow became the top news in 1998/99, when it in December 1997 suddenly was not enough intensified and changed for the whole year ahead of the usual weather in the northern hemisphere. Then all summer, the thunderstorms poured the Crimea and Black Sea resorts, the tourist-climbing season was rudied in the Carpathians and in the Caucasus, and in the cities of the Central and Western Europe (Baltic States, Transcarpathia, Poland, Germany, Britain, Italy etc.) in spring, autumn and winter
passed long floods with considerable (tens of thousands) by human victims:

True, climatologists and meteorologists guessed to tie these weather cataclysms with the activation of El Niño only in a year, when everything ended. Then we learned that El Niño is a warm circular course (it is more correct to say - counterchange), which occurs periodically in the Equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean:


Place El Nina on the world map
And that in Spanish this name means "Girl" and this girl has a twin brother La Niño - also a circular, but the cold Pacific current. Together, replacing each other, these hyperactive kids are sailing so that the whole world is shaking from fear. But fills in a robbery family duet after all the sister:


El Niño and La Niño - twin flows with opposite characters.
Work, replacing each other

Temperature map of Pacific Waters in the activation of El Niño and La Niño

In the second half of last year, meteorologists with a probability of 80% predicted a new rapid manifestation of Phenomenon El Niño. But it was manifested only in February 2015. This was announced by the National Office of Oceanological and Atmospheric Studies of the United States.

Activity of El Niño and La Niño is cyclic and is associated with Space cycles of solar activity.
At least it was previously thought. Now much in the behavior of El Niño ceased to fit
in the standard theory - the activation of the frequent almost twice. It is possible that the participation of activity
El Niño is caused global warming. In addition to the fact that El Niño affects atmospheric transfers, it (which is even more important) changes the nature and power of other Pacific - constant currents. And further - by the law of Domino: the entire usual climate map of the planet collapses.


The usual scheme of the tropical cycle of water in the Pacific Ocean

December 19, 1997, El Niño was intensified for a whole year
changed climate over the entire planet

El-Niño's rapid activation causes a minor (from a human point of view) an increase in surface waters in the East of the Pacific Ocean in the Equator area off the coast of Central and South America. The first of this phenomenon noticed Peruvian fishermen at the end of the 19th century. They periodically disappeared catches and collapsed fish business. It turned out that with increasing water temperature, the content in it oxygen and the number of plankton decreases, which leads to the death of the fish, and, accordingly, a sharp reduction in catch.
The effect of El Niño on the climate of our planet is not yet fully studied. Nevertheless, many scientists agree on
on the fact that during El Niño increases the number of extreme weather phenomena. So during
El Niño in 1997-1998 in many countries in the winter months was noted abnormally warm weather,
what caused the aforementioned floods.

One of the consequences of weather cataclysms are epidemics of malaria, dengue fever and other diseases. At the same time, the Western winds carry rain and flooding in the desert. It is believed that El Niño parishes contribute to the military and social conflict In countries affected by this natural phenomenon.
Some scientists argue that in the period 1950-2004 yell Niño increased twice the likelihood of civil wars.

It is precisely known that during the activation of El Niño, the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones increase. And the current state of affairs is good agreement with this theory. "In the Indian Ocean, where the cyclone season should already be approached by an end, two vortex develops at once. And in the north-west of the Pacific Ocean, where in April, the season of tropical cyclones just begins, 5 such vortices occurred, which is about the fifth of the fifth All seasonal norms of cyclones, "the site Meteonovosti.ru reports.

Where and how else will the weather react to the new activation of El Niño, meteorologists cannot say exactly yet,
But in one they are sure now: the population of the Earth is waiting abnormally warm year with wet and capricious weather (2014 is recognized as the warmth of meteo-bruises; it is very likely that he
and provoked the current rapid activation of a hyperactive "girl").
Moreover, usually Caprises El Niño lasts 6-8 months, but now they can delay for 1-2 years.

Anatoly Hortytsky

After the period of the neutral position of the El Niño-La Niña cycle, observed in mid-2011, the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean in August began to cool, and from October so far there was a phenomenon of La Niña weak and moderate power.

"Forecasts made on the basis of mathematical models, and their expert interpretation testify that La Niña is close to maximum strength, and it will probably begin slowly to weaken in the coming months. but existing methods Do not allow to predict the situation on May, therefore it is unclear what the situation will be in the Pacific - whether it will be El Niño, La Niña or a neutral position, "the report says.

Scientists noted that La Niña 2011-2012 was significantly weaker than in 2010-2011. The models predict that the temperature in the Pacific approaches the neutral values \u200b\u200bfrom March to May 2012.

La Niña 2010 was accompanied by a decrease in the area of \u200b\u200bclouds and the strengthening of trade winds. Reduced pressure led to heavy rains in Australia, Indonesia and countries South-East Asia. In addition, according to meteorologists, it is La Ninya who is responsible for strong rains in South and Drought in Eastern equatorial Africa, as well as for the arid situation in central regions Southwest Asia and South America.

El Niño (Spanish El Niño - Kid, Boy) or South Oscillating (Eng. EL Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, Enso) - fluctuation of the temperature of the surface layer of water in the Equatorial part of the Pacific, having a noticeable effect on the climate. In a narrower sense of the El Niño - phase of southern oscillation, in which the area of \u200b\u200bheated surface waters is shifted to the east. At the same time, the trade winds are weakened or generally stopped, an upwelling is slowed down in the eastern Pacific, from the coast of Peru. The opposite phase of oscillation is called La Niña (Iz. La Niña - baby, girl). The characteristic time of oscillation is from 3 to 8 years, however, the power and duration of El Niño in reality varies greatly. So, in 1790-1793, 1828, 1876-1878, 1891, 1925-1926, 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, the powerful phases of El Niño were recorded, whereas, for example, in 1991-1992, 1993, 1994 is a phenomenon , often repeating, was weakly pronounced. El Niño 1997-1998 It was so strong that attracted the attention of the world community and the press. At the same time, the theories on the connection of southern oscillation with global climate change were spread. Since the beginning of the 1980s, El Niño also arose in 1986-1987 and 2002-2003.

Normal conditions along the western coast of Peru are determined by the Cold Peruvian flow carrying water from the south. Where the flow turns to the West, along the equator, from deep depressions there is a rise of cold and plankton waters, which contributes to the active development of life in the ocean. The very cold current determines the dryness of the climate in this part of Peru, forming the desert. Passats distinguish a heated surface layer of water in western zone The tropical part of the Pacific Ocean, where the so-called tropical warm pool (TTB) is formed. In it, water is funded to depths at 100-200 m. Atmospheric circulation of Walker, manifested in the form of trade winds, together with reduced pressure Above the District of Indonesia, leads to the fact that in this place the level of the Pacific Ocean is 60 cm higher than in the eastern part of it. And the temperature of the water here reaches 29 - 30 ° C against 22 - 24 ° C off the coast of Peru. However, everything changes with the onset of El Niño. The trade winds weaken, TTB spreads, and on a huge Pacific area there is an increase in water temperature. In the area of \u200b\u200bPeru, the cold current is replaced by the Wet Water Most moving from the West to the coast of Peru with warm water mass, the Apuveling is weakening, the fish without food, and the wet winds bring wet air masses in the desert, causing even floods. The offensive of El Niño reduces the activity of atlantic tropical cyclones.

The first mention of the term "El Niño" refers to 1892, when Captain Camilo Carrilo reported at the Congress of the Geographical Society in Lima, that Peruvian sailors called the warm Northern flow of "El Niño", as it is most noticeable in the days of Catholic Christmas. In 1893, Charles Todd suggested that droughts in India and Australia occur at the same time. At the same point, indicated in 1904 and Norman Lockor. The connection of the warm northern current of the coast of Peru with floods in this country was reported in 1895. Pheets and Egigigün. For the first time, the phenomena of southern oscillation described in 1923 Gilbert Thomas Walker. He introduced the southern oscillations themselves, El Niño and La Niña themselves, considered the zonal convection circulation in the atmosphere in the Pacific Economic Area, which was now obtained by its name. For a long time There was almost no attention to the phenomenon, considering it regional. Only by the end of the XX century. Claim the connections of El Niño with the climate of the planet.

Quantitative description

Currently, for the quantitative description of the EL Niño and La Niña phenomenon, as temperature anomalies of the surface layer of the electronic part of the Pacific Ocean with a duration of at least 5 months, expressed in the deviation of the water temperature by 0.5 ° C to a large (el-nino) or a smaller (La Nina) side.

The first signs of El Niño:

Increased air pressure over the Indian Ocean, Indonesia and Australia.

Falling pressure over Tahiti, over the central and eastern parts of the Pacific.

The weakening of the Passops in the southern part of the Pacific Ocean until they stop and change the direction of the wind to the West.
Warm air mass in Peru, rains in Peruvian deserts.

In itself, an increase in water temperature off the coast of Peru 0.5 ° C is considered only the condition for the emergence of El Niño. Usually such an anomaly can exist within a few weeks, and then disappear safely. And only a five-month anomaly, classifier as an EL Niño phenomenon, can cause significant damage to the region's economy due to the fall of fish catches.

To describe El Niño, the southern oscillation index is also used (Southern Oscillant Index, SOI). It is calculated as the pressure difference over Tahiti and above Darwin (Australia). Negative values The index testifies to the El Niño phase, and positive - about La Niña.

EL-Niño influence on climate of different regions

In South America, El Niño effect is most pronounced. Usually this phenomenon causes warm and very wet summer periods (from December to February) on the northern coast of Peru and in Ecuador. If El Niño is strong, it causes strong floods. Such, for example, happened in January 2011. South Brazil and Northern Argentina are also experiencing more wet than usual periods, but, mainly in spring and early summer. In the center of Chile, there is a soft winter with plenty of rains, and in Peru and Bolivia sometimes occur unusual winter snowfall for this region. Dry and warm weather is observed in the Amazon River Pool, in Colombia and countries Central America. In Indonesia, humidity decreases, increasing the likelihood of forest fires. This also applies to the Philippines and Northern Australia. From June to August, dry weather is observed in Queensland, Victoria, New South Wales and East Tasmania. In Antarctic, the West of the Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Land, Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas are covered with plenty of snow and ice. At the same time grows pressure and become warmer. In North America, as a rule, winter becomes warmer in the Midwest and in Canada. In Central and Southern California, in the north-west of Mexico and Southeast, the United States becomes wetter, and in the North-Western Pacific States of the United States - land. During La Niña, on the contrary, land becomes in the Midwest. El Niño also leads to a decrease in the activity of Atlantic hurricanes. East Africa, including Kenya, Tanzania and the pool of the White Nile, are experiencing long season rains from March to May. Drought pursue from December to February Southern and central regions of Africa, mainly Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Botswana.

Effect similar to El Niño is sometimes observed in Atlantic OceanWhere water along the Equatorial Coast of Africa becomes warmer, and the coast of Brazil is colder. Moreover, the connection of this circulation with El Niño is traced.

EL-Niño influence on health and society

El Niño causes extreme weatherassociated with cycles of the frequency of epidemic diseases. El Niño is associated with an increased risk of developing diseases transmitted by mosquitoes: malaria, dengue fever and rift valley fever. Malaria's occurrence cycles are associated with El Niño in India, Venezuela and Colombia. There is a connection with the outbreaks of the Australian Encephalitis (Encephalitis Valley of Murray - MVE), manifested in the south-east of Australia after heavy rains and floods caused by La Niña. Bright example It is a heavy outbreak of Rift Valley Fever, which occurred due to El Niño after extreme precipitation in the northeastern part of Kenya and the southern part of Somalia in 1997-98.

It is also believed that El Niño may be associated with the cyclicality of wars and the emergence of civil conflicts in countries whose climate depends on El Niño. Studying data from 1950 to 2004 showed that El Niño is associated with 21% of all civil conflicts of this period. At the same time, the risk of civil war during the years of El Niño is two times higher than during the years of La Niña. Probably the relationship between climate and military actions is mediated by indigestive, which often come on hot years.

Climate phenomenon La Ninya, associated with a decrease in the water temperature in the Equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean and affecting the weather conditions, almost all the globe disappeared and, most likely, will not return until the end of 2012, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports.

La Nina's phenomenon (La Nina, "Girl" Translated from Spanish) is characterized by an anomalous decrease in the surface temperature of the water in the central and eastern part of the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean. This process is reverse to El Nino, "Boy"), which is connected, on the contrary, with warming in the same zone. These states replace each other with a frequency of about a year.

After the period of the neutral position of the El Niño-La Niña cycle, observed in mid-2011, the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean in August began to cool, and from October so far there was a phenomenon of La Niña weak and moderate power. By the beginning of April, La Niña completely disappeared, and to date, neutral conditions are observed in the Equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, experts write.

"(Analysis of modeling results) assumes that La Niña this year is likely to return, whereas the probabilities of preserving a neutral situation and the emergence of El Niño in the second half of the year are approximately equal," the WMO reports.

And El Niño, and La Niña affect the circulation schemes of ocean and atmospheric currents, which in turn affects the weather and climate over the entire globe, provoking droughts in some regions, hurricanes and strong rains - in others.

The climate phenomenon of La Niña, who took place in 2011, was so strong that in the end led to the fall of the world's level for as many as 5 mm. With the arrival of La Nigni, a shift occurred in the values \u200b\u200bof the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean and changed the precipitation models around the world, since ground moisture It began to leave the ocean and go to the land in the form of rains in Australia, in the north of South America, in Southeast Asia.

The alternate domination of the warm ocean phase in the phenomenon of southern oscillation, El Niño, the cold phase, La Niña, is able to change the world's ocean so much, but satellite data is inexorably indicate that somewhere since the 1990s global levels Water still rises to a height of about 3 mm.
As soon as el Niño comes, the growth of water level begins to occur faster, but with a change of phases for almost every five years a diametrically opposite phenomenon is observed. The strength of the effect of a phase depends on other factors and brightly reflects the general climate change towards its fierce. The study of both phases of southern oscillation is engaged in many scientists around the world, as they contain many keys to what happens on earth and what it expects it.

The atmospheric phenomenon of La Niña intensity from moderate to strong will last in the tropical part of the Pacific Ocean until April 2011. This is stated in the information bulletin about El Niño / La Niña released on Monday by the World Meteorological Organization.

As emphasized in the document, all the forecasts based on models predict the continuation or possible strengthening of the La Niña phenomenon over the next 4-6 months, ITAR-TASS reports.

For La Niña, which this year was formed in June-July, having come to replace the El Niño phenomenon in April, the unusually low water temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial parts of the Pacific Ocean are characterized. This violates normal tropical precipitation regimes and atmospheric circulation. El Niño is a direct opposite phenomenon, which is characterized by unusually high water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

The effects of these phenomena can be felt in many parts of the planet, expressing in the floods, storms, droughts, raises, or, on the contrary, decreases of temperatures. Usually, La Niña cites in winter to strong rains in the eastern equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, Indonesia, in the Philippines and to strong droughts in Ecuador, in the north-west Peru and in the eastern part of Equatorial Africa.
In addition, the phenomenon contributes to a decrease in the world temperature, and this is most noticeable from December to February in the northeast of Africa, in Japan, in the south of Alaska, in the central and western parts of Canada, in the south-east of Brazil.

The World Meteorological Organization / WMO / Today in Geneva stated that in August of this year, a climatic phenomenon of La Niña, which can increase in the intensity and continue until the end of the current or beginning of the current year, was recently noted in the Equator's area in the Pacific Ocean.

In the last WMO report about phenomena El Niño And La Niña, it says that the current phenomenon of La Niña will reach the peak at the end of this year, but the intensity will be less than that was in the second half of 2010. In connection with its uncertainty, WMO offers the countries of the Pacific Basin carefully to closely monitor its development and promptly report on possible drought and floods due to it.

The Phenomenon of La Niña implies the phenomenon of anomalous long-term large-scale cooling of water in the eastern and central parts of the Pacific Ocean in the area of \u200b\u200bthe equator, which generates a global climatic anomaly. The previous phenomenon of La Nigni led to the spring drought on the western coast of the Pacific Ocean, including China.

Phenomenon La Nina (La Nina, "Girl" Translated from Spanish) It is characterized by an abnormal decrease in the surface temperature of the water in the central and eastern part of the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean. This process is reverse with respect to El Nino (El Nino, "Boy")which is connected, on the contrary, with warming in the same zone. These states replace each other with a frequency of about a year.

And El Niño, and La Niña affect the circulation schemes of ocean and atmospheric currents, which in turn affects the weather and climate over the entire globe, provoking droughts in some regions, hurricanes and strong rains - in others.

After the period of the neutral position of the El Niño-La Niña cycle, observed in mid-2011, the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean in August began to cool, and from October so far there was a phenomenon of La Niña weak and moderate power.

"Forecasts made on the basis of mathematical models, and their expert interpretation indicate that La Ninya is close to maximum strength, and it will probably begin to slowly weaken in the coming months. However, existing methods do not allow to predict the situation on May, so it is unclear what situation It will be in the Pacific - whether it will be el-niño, la-nine or neutral position, "the report says.

Scientists noted that La Niña 2011-2012 was significantly weaker than in 2010-2011. The models predict that the temperature in the Pacific approaches the neutral values \u200b\u200bfrom March to May 2012.

La Niña 2010 was accompanied by a decrease in the area of \u200b\u200bclouds and the strengthening of trade winds. Pressure reduction led to heavy rains in Australia, Indonesia and Southeast Asian countries. In addition, according to meteorologists, it is La Ninya who is responsible for strong rains in southern and drought in Eastern Equatorial Africa, as well as for a dry situation in the central regions of Southwestern Asia and in South America.

El Niño (Span. EL Niño. - Kid, boy) or South oscillation (eng. EL Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, Enso ) - fluctuation of the temperature of the surface layer of water in the Equatorial part of the Pacific, having a noticeable effect on the climate. In a narrower sense El Niño — phase of southern oscillation in which the area of \u200b\u200bheated surface waters shifts to the east. At the same time, the trade winds are weakened or generally stopped, an upwelling is slowed down in the eastern Pacific, from the coast of Peru. The opposite phase of oscillation is called La Ninia (Span. La Niña. - Baby, girl). The characteristic time of oscillation is from 3 to 8 years, however, the power and duration of El Niño in reality varies greatly. So, in 1790-1793, 1828, 1876-1878, 1891, 1925-1926, 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, the powerful phases of El Niño were recorded, whereas, for example, in 1991-1992, 1993, 1994 is a phenomenon , often repeating, was weakly pronounced. El Niño 1997-1998 It was so strong that attracted the attention of the world community and the press. At the same time, the theories on the connection of southern oscillation with global climate change were spread. Since the beginning of the 1980s, El Niño also arose in 1986-1987 and 2002-2003.

Normal conditions along the western coast of Peru are determined by the Cold Peruvian flow carrying water from the south. Where the flow turns to the West, along the equator, from deep depressions there is a rise of cold and plankton waters, which contributes to the active development of life in the ocean. The very cold current determines the dryness of the climate in this part of Peru, forming the desert. The trade winds distinguish the heated surface layer of water into the western zone of tropical part of the Pacific Ocean, where the so-called tropical warm pool (TTB) is formed. In it, the water is funded to depths at 100-200 m. Atmospheric circulation of the Walker, manifested in the form of trade winds, together with reduced pressure over the Indonesia region, leads to the fact that in this place the level of the Pacific Ocean is 60 cm higher than in its eastern part . And the temperature of the water here reaches 29 - 30 ° C against 22 - 24 ° C off the coast of Peru. However, everything changes with the onset of El Niño. The trade winds weaken, TTB spreads, and on a huge Pacific area there is an increase in water temperature. In the area of \u200b\u200bPeru, the cold current is replaced by the Wet Water Most moving from the West to the coast of Peru with warm water mass, the Apuveling is weakening, the fish without food, and the wet winds bring wet air masses in the desert, causing even floods. The offensive of El Niño reduces the activity of atlantic tropical cyclones.

The first mention of the term "El Niño" refers to 1892, when Captain Camilo Carrilo reported at the Congress of the Geographical Society in Lima, that Peruvian sailors called the warm Northern flow of "El Niño", as it is most noticeable in the days of Catholic Christmas. In 1893, Charles Todd suggested that droughts in India and Australia occur at the same time. At the same point, indicated in 1904 and Norman Lockor. The connection of the warm northern current of the coast of Peru with floods in this country was reported in 1895. Pheets and Egigigün. For the first time, the phenomena of southern oscillation described in 1923 Gilbert Thomas Walker. He introduced the southern oscillations themselves, El Niño and La Niña themselves, considered the zonal convection circulation in the atmosphere in the Pacific Economic Area, which was now obtained by its name. For a long time, there was almost no attention to the phenomenon, considering it regional. Only by the end of the XX century. Claim the connections of El Niño with the climate of the planet.

El Niño 1997 (Topex)

Quantitative description

Currently, for the quantitative description of the EL Niño and La Niña phenomenon, as temperature anomalies of the surface layer of the electronic part of the Pacific Ocean with a duration of at least 5 months, expressed in the deviation of the water temperature by 0.5 ° C to a large (el-nino) or a smaller (La Nina) side.

The first signs of El Niño:

1. Increased air pressure over the Indian Ocean, Indonesia and Australia.
2. Falling pressure over Tahiti, over the central and eastern parts of the Pacific.
3. The weakening of the Passops in the southern part of the Pacific Ocean until they stop and change the direction of the wind to the West.
4. Warm air mass in Peru, rains in Peruvian deserts.

In itself, an increase in water temperature off the coast of Peru 0.5 ° C is considered only the condition for the emergence of El Niño. Usually such an anomaly can exist within a few weeks, and then disappear safely. Only five-month anomaly classifying as an EL Niño phenomenonmay cause significant damage to the region's economy due to falling fish catches.

To describe EL Niño is also used index of southern oscillation (eng. Southern Oscillant Index, Soi ). It is calculated as the pressure difference over Tahiti and above Darwin (Australia). Negative index values \u200b\u200bindicate about Phase El Niño, and positive - about La Ninia .

EL-Niño influence on climate of different regions

In South America, El Niño effect is most pronounced. Usually this phenomenon causes warm and very wet summer periods (from December to February) on the northern coast of Peru and in Ecuador. If El Niño is strong, it causes strong floods. Such, for example, happened in January 2011. South Brazil and Northern Argentina are also experiencing more wet than usual periods, but, mainly in spring and early summer. In the center of Chile, there is a soft winter with plenty of rains, and in Peru and Bolivia sometimes occur unusual winter snowfall for this region. The dry and warm weather is observed in the Amazon River basin, in Colombia and Central America. In Indonesia, humidity decreases, increasing the likelihood of forest fires. This also applies to the Philippines and Northern Australia. From June to August, dry weather is observed in Queensland, Victoria, New South Wales and East Tasmania. In Antarctic, the West of the Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Land, Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas are covered with plenty of snow and ice. At the same time grows pressure and become warmer. In North America, as a rule, winter becomes warmer in the Midwest and in Canada. In Central and Southern California, in the north-west of Mexico and Southeast, the United States becomes wetter, and in the North-Western Pacific States of the United States - land. During La Niña, on the contrary, land becomes in the Midwest. El Niño also leads to a decrease in the activity of Atlantic Hurricanes. East Africa, including Kenya, Tanzania and the pool of the White Nile, are experiencing long season rains from March to May. Drought pursue from December to February Southern and central regions of Africa, mainly Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Botswana.

The effect similar to El Niño is sometimes observed in the Atlantic Ocean, where water along the equatorial coast of Africa becomes warmer, and the coast of Brazil is colder. Moreover, the connection of this circulation with El Niño is traced.

EL-Niño influence on health and society

El Niño raises extreme weather conditions related to the cycles of the frequency of epidemic diseases. El Niño is associated with an increased risk of developing diseases transmitted by mosquitoes: malaria, dengue fever and rift valley fever. Malaria's occurrence cycles are associated with El Niño in India, Venezuela and Colombia. There is a connection with the outbreaks of the Australian Encephalitis (Encephalitis Valley of Murray - MVE), manifested in the south-east of Australia after heavy rains and floods caused by La Niña. A striking example is a heavy outbreak of rift valley fever that occurred due to El Niño after extreme precipitation in the northeastern part of Kenya and the southern part of Somalia in 1997-98.

It is also believed that El Niño may be associated with the cyclicality of wars and the emergence of civil conflicts in countries whose climate depends on El Niño. Studying data from 1950 to 2004 showed that El Niño is associated with 21% of all civil conflicts of this period. At the same time, the risk of civil war during the years of El Niño is two times higher than during the years of La Niña. Probably the relationship between climate and military actions is mediated by indigestive, which often come on hot years.

The Phenomenon of La Niña appears to be anomalous cooling of the yard in the ODD in the central and in the non-sucking parts of the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean in the winter. As Japanese meteorologists reported, the lowest temperatures were recorded by Anna in the middle of Feb, but by the beginning of March the indicators were in the normal Ryshli. According to weather forecasters, this is a sign of an emergency final attack in ESNA - at least in Japan located in the Pacific Ocean. Currently, experts are studying in ozipping in oznic substitution in the coming summer against the Owlian Phenomenon A - El Niño - which is characterized by an abnormal vision of the temperature in ODD in the Pacific Ocean.

Typically, La Niña will simply to strong liquid and tropical storms on the west coast of South America, in south-in-in-in-law of Asia and in the outdoor part of EK ATORIAL Africa. Nevertheless, this is a phenomenon capable of providing in the limit on the weather and globally. In particular, this winter phenomenon has become one of the factors, the trial to strong colds in Ev Rope, ITAR-TASS reports.

http://news.rambler.ru/13104180/33618609/

The climatic phenomenon of La Niña, associated with a decrease in the water temperature in the Equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean and affecting weather conditions almost all of the globe, disappeared and, most likely, will not return until the end of 2012, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports.

La Nina's phenomenon (La Nina, "girl" in translation from Spanish) is characterized by an anomalous decrease in the temperature of the water surface in the central and eastern part of the tropical area of \u200b\u200bthe Pacific Ocean. This process is opposite to El Nino, Boy), which is connected, on the contrary, with warming in the same zone. These states replace each other with a frequency of about a year.

After the period of the neutral position of the El Niño-La Niña cycle, observed in mid-2011, the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean in August began to cool, and from October so far there was a phenomenon of La Niña weak and moderate power. By the beginning of April, La Niña completely disappeared, and to date, neutral conditions are observed in the Equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, experts write.

"(Analysis of the modeling results) assumes that La Niña this year is likely to not return, while the probabilities of preserving a neutral situation and the emergence of El Niño in the second half of the year are approximately equal," the WMO reports.

And El Niño, and La Niña affect the circulation schemes of ocean and atmospheric currents, which in turn affects the weather and climate over the entire globe, provoking droughts in some regions, hurricanes and strong rains - in others.
Message dated 17.05.2012

The climate phenomenon of La Niña, who took place in 2011, was so strong that in the end led to the fall of the world's level for as many as 5 mm. With the arrival of La Nigna, a shift occurred in the values \u200b\u200bof the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean and changed precipitation models around the world, as the earth moisture began to leave the ocean and go to the land in the form of rains in Australia, in the north of South America, in Southeast Asia .

The alternate domination of the warm ocean phase in the phenomenon of southern oscillation, El Niño, the cold phase, La Niña, is able to change the world's ocean so much, but satellite data is inexorably indicate that somewhere since the 1990s global levels Water still rises to a height of about 3 mm.

As soon as el Niño comes, the growth of water level begins to occur faster, but with a change of phases for almost every five years a diametrically opposite phenomenon is observed. The strength of the effect of a phase depends on other factors and brightly reflects the general climate change towards its fierce. The study of both phases of southern oscillation is engaged in many scientists around the world, as they contain many keys to what happens on earth and what it expects it.

The atmospheric phenomenon of La Niña intensity from moderate to strong will last in the tropical part of the Pacific Ocean until April 2011. This is stated in the information bulletin about El Niño / La Niña released on Monday by the World Meteorological Organization.

As emphasized in the document, all the forecasts based on models predict the continuation or possible strengthening of the La Niña phenomenon over the next 4-6 months, ITAR-TASS reports.

For La Niña, which this year was formed in June-July, having come to replace the El Niño phenomenon in April, the unusually low water temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial parts of the Pacific Ocean are characterized. This violates the normal regimes of tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation. El Niño is a direct opposite phenomenon, which is characterized by unusually high water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

The effects of these phenomena can be felt in many parts of the planet, expressing in the floods, storms, droughts, raises, or, on the contrary, decreases of temperatures. Usually, La Niña cites in winter to strong rains in the eastern equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, Indonesia, in the Philippines and to strong droughts in Ecuador, in the north-west Peru and in the eastern part of Equatorial Africa.

La Ninya, which can increase in intensity and continue until the end of this or the beginning of next year.

In the last report in MO on the phenomena of El Niño and La Niña, the Gov goes that the current phenomenon of La Niña will reach the peak at the end of this year, but the intensity will be less than that was in the second half of 2010. In Sv Yazi, with its uncertainty in MO, it offers the countries of the Pacific Ocean Basin to pretty for its breaking by the ITI and CHEEV to inform about in diversity because of him drought and navation.

The phenomenon of La Niña implies the phenomenon of anomalous prolonged large-scale cooling in ODDs in the non-ocean and central parts of the Pacific Ocean in the Eq-anator area, which generates a global climatic anomaly. The previous phenomenon of La Niña will face Eloque in Essennaya Drought on the West Coast of the Pacific Ocean, in the key China.