Australian meteorologists beat the alarm: In the coming year-two, the world is waiting for extreme weather provoked by the activation of the circular equatorial Pacific flow of El Niño, which, in turn, can provoke natural disasters, crochets,
diseases and civil wars.

El Niño, previously known only to narrow specialists, the circular flow became the top news in 1998/99, when it in December 1997 suddenly was not enough intensified and changed for the whole year ahead of the usual weather in the northern hemisphere. Then all summer, the thunderstorms poured the Crimea and the Black Sea resorts, the tourist-climbing season was rudied in the Carpathians and the Caucasus, and in the cities of Central and Western Europe (Baltic States, Transcarpathia, Poland, Germany, Britain, Italy etc.) in spring, autumn and winter
passed long floods with considerable (tens of thousands) by human victims:

True, climatologists and meteorologists guessed to tie these weather cataclysms with the activation of El Niño only in a year, when everything ended. Then we learned that El Niño is a warm circular course (it is more correct to say - counterchange), which occurs periodically in the Equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean:


Place El Nina on the world map
And that in Spanish this name means "Girl" and this girl has a twin brother La Niño - also a circular, but the cold Pacific current. Together, replacing each other, these hyperactive kids are sailing so that the whole world is shaking from fear. But fills in a robbery family duet after all the sister:


El Niño and La Niño - twin flows with opposite characters.
Work, replacing each other

Temperature map of Pacific Waters in the activation of El Niño and La Niño

In the second half of last year, meteorologists with a probability of 80% predicted a new rapid manifestation of Phenomenon El Niño. But it was manifested only in February 2015. This was announced by the National Office of Oceanological and Atmospheric Studies of the United States.

Activity of El Niño and La Niño is cyclic and is associated with Space cycles of solar activity.
At least it was previously thought. Now much in the behavior of El Niño ceased to fit
in the standard theory - the activation of the frequent almost twice. It is possible that the participation of activity
El Niño is caused by global warming. In addition to the fact that El Niño affects atmospheric transfers, it (which is even more important) changes the nature and power of other Pacific - constant currents. And further - by the law of Domino: the entire usual climate map of the planet collapses.


The usual scheme of the tropical cycle of water in the Pacific Ocean

December 19, 1997, El Niño was intensified for a whole year
changed climate over the entire planet

El-Niño's rapid activation causes a minor (from a human point of view) an increase in surface waters in the East of the Pacific Ocean in the Equator area off the coast of Central and South America. The first of this phenomenon noticed Peruvian fishermen at the end of the 19th century. They periodically disappeared catches and collapsed fish business. It turned out that with increasing water temperature, the content in it oxygen and the number of plankton decreases, which leads to the death of the fish, and, accordingly, a sharp reduction in catch.
The effect of El Niño on the climate of our planet is not yet fully studied. Nevertheless, many scientists agree on
the amount of extreme weather events increases during El Niño. So during
El Niño in 1997-1998 in many countries in the winter months was noted abnormally warm weather,
what caused the aforementioned floods.

One of the consequences of weather cataclysms are epidemics of malaria, dengue fever and other diseases. At the same time, the Western winds carry rain and flooding in the desert. The parishes of El Niño contribute to military and social conflicts in the countries affected by this natural phenomenon.
Some scientists argue that in the period 1950-2004, El-Niño doubled the likelihood of civil wars.

It is precisely known that during the activation of El Niño, the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones increase. And the current state of affairs is good agreement with this theory. "In the Indian Ocean, where the cyclone season should already be approached by an end, two vortex develops at once. And in the north-west of the Pacific Ocean, where in April, the season of tropical cyclones just begins, 5 such vortices occurred, which is about the fifth of the fifth All seasonal norms of cyclones, "the site Meteonovosti.ru reports.

Where and how else will the weather react to the new activation of El Niño, meteorologists cannot say exactly yet,
But in one they are sure now: the population of the Earth is again waiting for an abnormally warm year with a wet and capricious weather (2014 is recognized as the warmth of meteorological stories; it is very likely that he
and provoked the current rapid activation of a hyperactive "girl").
Moreover, usually Caprises El Niño lasts 6-8 months, but now they can delay for 1-2 years.

Anatoly Hortytsky

1 out of 10

Presentation on the topic:

Slide number 1.

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Slide 2 number

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The overall representation of the el-niñochase of the temperature of the surface layer of water in the equatorial part of the Pacific, having a noticeable effect on the climate. In a narrower sense of the El Niño - phase of southern oscillation, in which the area of \u200b\u200bheated surface waters is shifted to the east. At the same time, the trade winds are weakened or generally stopped, an upwelling is slowed down in the eastern Pacific, from the coast of Peru. The opposite phase of oscillation is called La Ninia.

No. Slide 3.

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The first signs of El Niño increase in air pressure over the Indian Ocean, Indonesia and Australia. Pressure pressure over Tahiti, above the central and eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean. Passatoves in the southern part of the Pacific Ocean until they stop and change the wind direction to the Western air force. In Peru, rains in Peruvian deserts. This is also the effect of El Niño

Slide 4 number

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The influence of El Niño on the climate of various regions in South America, El Niño effect is most pronounced. Usually this phenomenon causes warm and very wet summer periods (from December to February) on the northern coast of Peru and in Ecuador. If El Niño is strong, it causes strong floods. South Brazil and Northern Argentina are also experiencing more wet than usual periods, but, mainly in spring and early summer. In the center of Chile, there is a soft winter with plenty of rains, and in Peru and Bolivia sometimes occur unusual winter snowfall for this region.

No. Slide 5.

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Losses and losses over 15 years ago, when El Niño first showed its character, meteorologists have not yet connected the events of those years: droughts in India, fires in South Africa and Hurricanes, swept through Hawaii and Tahiti. Later, when the causes of these violations were found out, the losses that brought the peculiarity of the elements were calculated. But it turned out that this is not all. For example, rains and floods are direct consequences of natural disaster. But for them they came and secondary, - for example, mosquitoes spread on new swamps and brought the malaria epidemic in Colombia, Peru, India, Sri Lanka. In the state of Montana, the bites of people of poisonous snakes. They approached the settlements, pursuing their prey - mice, and they left their sedentary places because of the navigation, they came closer to people and to the water.

No. Slide 6.

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From the myths to the reality of the prediction of meteorologists confirmed: catastrophic events associated with the course of El Niño, one after another fell into Earth. Of course, it is very sad that all this happens now. But still it is impossible not to note that humanity first meets a global natural catastrophe, knowing its causes and the course of further development. El Niño's phenomenon is already quite well studied. Science has solved a riddle who tormented Peruvian fishermen. It was incomprehensible to them why sometimes in the Christmas period the ocean becomes warmer and sardine shoals from the coast of Peru disappear. Since the arrival of warm water coincided Merry Christmas, the course called El Niño, which in Spanish means "baby-boy". Fishermen, of course, interests the immediate cause of Sardin's departure ...

No. Slide 7.

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Fish leaves ... ... The fact is that sardines feed on phytoplankton. And algae needs sunlight and biogenic elements - primarily nitrogen, phosphorus. They are in ocean water, and their stock in the upper layer is constantly updated with vertical currents running from the bottom to the surface. But when the flow of El Niño turns back, towards South America, its warm waters "lock" the output of deep waters. Biogenic elements are not risening to the surface, the reproduction of algae is suspended. Fish leaves these places - she lacks food.

Slide 8

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Magellan's mistake is the first of Europeans who swam the largest ocean of the planet, was Magellan. He called him "quiet." As soon as soon, it turned out, Magellan was mistaken. It is in this ocean that most Typhins are born, it is he who produces three quarters of the planet's clouds. Now we have also learned that El Niño is born in the Pacific Ocean sometimes causes many different troubles and disasters on the planet ...

Slide number 9.

Slide description:

El Nino- This is an elongated tongue of strongly heated water. By area, it is equal to the territory of the United States. Hare Water evaporates more intense and faster "pumped" the atmosphere of energy. El Niño transmits it with 450 million megawatts, which is equivalent to the power of 300,000 large nuclear power plants. It is clear that this energy, according to the law of energy conservation, does not disappear. And now in Indonesia, a disaster broke out in full strength. First there, on the island of Sumatra, drought raging, then dried forests began to burn. In an impenetrable smoke that wrapped around the whole island, a plane crashed with a landing, a tanker and a cargo ship collided into the sea. The smokes reached Singapore and Malaysia ..

No. Slide 10.

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Years to which El Niño was recorded 1864, 1871, 1877-1878, 1884, 1891, 1899, 1911-1912, 1925-1926, 1939-1941, 1957-1958, 1976, 1982-1983 , 1986-1987, 1992-1993, 1997-1998. , in 1790-1793, 1828, 1876-1878, 1891, 1925-1926, 1982-1983 and 1997-1998. Powerful phases of El Niño were recorded, whereas, for example, in 1991-1992, 1993, 1994 is a phenomenon, Often repeating, it was weakly pronounced. El Niño 1997-1998 It was so strong that attracted the attention of the world community and the press.

Peruvian current or Course of Humboldt (Corriente de Humboldt) - the cold oceanic flow in the southeastern part of the Pacific; It takes from the south to the north from Antarctica shores along the Western shores.

It is a wide, slow flow consisting of Peruvian oceanic and peruvian coastal currents carrying relatively cold (from + 15 ° C to + 20 ° C) of water of moderate latitudes at a speed of up to 0.9 km / h; has water consumption 15-20 million l³ / s; Gives start Southern Common Trading.

Alexander von Humboldt

German scientist encyclopedist, physicist, meteorologist, geographer and naturalist, Baron Alexander von Humboldt (He. Alexander Freiherr Von Humboldt; 1769-1859), who traveled a lot in Latin America, in 1812 discovered that a cold deep flow moves from the polar regions towards the equator, cooling air there.

In honor of this scientist, the Peruvian flow, carrier of water along the South American coast, was also called the flow of Humboldt.

Movement - Life

Continuous movement is one of the characteristic features of the waters of the World Ocean.

Large-scale water masses that are continuously moving across the oceans are called oceanic or marine currents. Each of the flows moving in a certain direction and the direction, why they are sometimes called "ocean rivers": the width of the largest currents can be several hundred km, and the length is not one thousand km.

Each Ocean has a clearly pronounced cycle of currents. Interestingly, they are not moving in a straight line, the direction of flows is determined by the following factors: constant winds (trade winds), which enhanced on both sides of the equator from East to the West; outlines of continents; bottom relief; deflecting the power of the earth rotation.

Sea currents form In the oceans, closed circles. The movement of water in these circles in the northern hemisphere occurs clockwise, and in the southern - counterclockwise: the direction of flows is due to the rotation of the Earth around its axis.

Warm, cold

Depending on the water temperature, ocean flows are divided into warm and cold. Warm arises near the equator, they carry warm water through the cold, located in the area of \u200b\u200bthe poles, and heat the air. Cold flows are sent from the polar regions to the equator, they, on the contrary, lead to a decrease in air temperature.

The largest warm seaside currents include: Golf Stream (Atlantic Ocean), Brazilian (Atlantic Ocean), Kurosio (Pacific), Caribbean (Atlantic Ocean), Northern and South Equatorial Testations (Atlantic, Pacific, Indian Oceans), Antilles (Atlantic Ocean ).

The largest cold sea currents include: Peruvian (Pacific Ocean), Canary (Atlantic Ocean), Olyasio or Kuril (Pacific Ocean), East Greenland (Atlantic Ocean), Labradorsky (Atlantic Ocean) and California (Pacific Ocean).

Cool and warm currents in some places are suitable close to each other, most often in moderate latitudes. As a result of the formation of the area of \u200b\u200bwater convergence with different physical properties, vortices occur. These phenomena in the ocean affect the air masses formed above the ocean, and then manifest themselves in weather conditions on land of moderate latitudes.

Influence of currents on the life of the planet

The role of ocean flows in our planet's life is difficult to overestimate, since the movement of water flows directly affects the climate of the earth, weather, coastal flora and fauna, marine organisms. The ocean is often compared with the titanic thermal unit, which causes the energy of the Sun. This machine creates continuous water exchange between the deep and surface layers of the ocean, affecting the life of marine inhabitants.

This process can be traced on the example of the Peruvian current. Thanks to the rise of deep water, which raise dissolved phosphorus and nitrogen, on the surface of the ocean, the animal and vegetable plankton, serving food for petty fish, successfully develops. That, in turn, becomes a victim of larger fish, birds and many marine mammals, which, with such abundance of food, settle here, making the region by one of the most productive areas of the World Ocean. Water Characteristics of the Peruvian current - very large biological activity; This is one of the main sections of the fishing fishery, the extraction of Anchovs and Tuns, as well as the collection of natural fertilizer- Guano.

Peruvian current: curious facts

• World ocean flows are moved at a speed of from 1 to 9 km / h.
• Sea currents play a huge role in the life of our planet. They contribute to the intercussion distribution of heat, water masses and living organisms, affect the circulation of the atmosphere and climate of the Earth. Studying the flow of flows is necessary for navigating and the right organization of fisheries.
• World Ocean's flows are a kind of giant air conditioner, distributing cold and warm air around the globe.
• Currently, according to an international agreement with special ships, a bottle in the sea is thrown into the sea, which is presented with a note with an indication of the exact location (latitude and longitude) and time (year, number and month). And the "traveler" goes into swimming, sometimes very long. For example, a bottle thrown in October 1820 in the southern part of the Atlantic Ocean was found in August 1821 off the coast of La Mansha. Another, abandoned from the Onts Green Cape (May 19, 1887), was caught by the Irish shore on March 17, 1890. A particularly long journey made one of the bottles in the Pacific: thrown at the southern coast of South America. She was found in New Zealand Bay. Thus, for 1,711 days, the bottle overcame the distance of 20 thousand km, i.e., on average 9 km per day.
• Applying the paths made by bottles, experts get the opportunity to identify trajectories and directions. Noting the time when the bottle was thrown and found, get an idea of \u200b\u200bthe speed of flows.
• In the "drifting bottles", which are used to determine the surface currents, add some sand for ballast and invest postcard or special form. Founding is asked to report the place and time of its detection. Every year Woods-Kholsky Oceanographic Institute (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, WHOI) produces 10-20 thousand "drifting" bottles in the sea of \u200b\u200bthe east coast of the United States. As a rule, 10-11% of the postcards invested in them are usually returned. The obtained information on the drift was used in the preparation of the satin of surface ocean flows.
• Once at 12 years old to the coast of Peru is suitable for the warm flow, pushing the cold Peruvian current. It is called "El Niño" (EL Niño - "Kid"), as it usually appears for Christmas. A sharp change in temperature leads to the mass death of all forms of marine organisms, which means that the fish and feed-feeding fish are die from hunger - manufacturers of Guano.

Doctor of Geographic Sciences D. Fasuk.

Natural catastrophes are not uncommon on our planet. They happen both on land and at sea. The mechanisms for the development of catastrophic phenomena are so confused that scientists are required years to approach the understanding of a complex complex of causal relationships in the "Atmosphere - Land" system.

The circulation of the waters of the Pacific Ocean consists of two anticyclonic circulation.

In the normal climatic conditions, the coast of Peru fish grabs all: both people and birds.

With the weakening of the freight winds, the warm water "rolled back" in the east.

Science and life // illustration

Perennial observations show that the anomalies of the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Latin America during the development periods of El Niño and La Niña (at the top) are located in antiphase with changes in the index of southern oscillations (below).

Science and life // illustration

Under normal conditions (La Niña), Pacific Passats are blowing in the west direction (at the top).

The abundance of fish in the district of the Peruvian Apureling attracts many birds to the coast of Latin America.

One of the devastating natural phenomena, accompanied by numerous human victims and colossal material losses, is El Niño. Translated from the Spanish El Niño means "Baby Boy", and it is named so because it often falls for Christmas. This "baby" brings with him a genuine disaster: the coasts of Ecuador and Peru sharply, at 7-12 o C, the water temperature rises, the fish disappears and the birds die, the protracted pouring rains begin. Legends about such phenomena have been preserved in the Indians of local tribes since more times when these lands were not conquered by the Spaniards, and Peruvian archaeologists found that in deep antiquity, local residents, defending against catastrophic rain rains, built at home not flat, as now, and with duscal roofs.

Although usually the oceanic effects are usually attributed to El Niño, in fact, this phenomenon is closely related to meteorological processes, which are called "southern oscillation" and are, figuratively speaking, atmospheric "swings" size from the ocean. In addition, modern researchers of the nature of the Earth managed to reveal also the geophysical component of this amazing phenomenon: it turns out that the mechanical and thermal fluctuations of the atmosphere and the ocean shave with the combined efforts to have our planet, which is also reflected in the intensity and frequency of ecological disasters.

Ocean waters flow and ...
Sometimes stop

In the southern tropical part of the Pacific Ocean in normal years (under the middlelumatic conditions) there is a huge cycle with the movement of water against a clockwise arrow. The eastern part of the cycle represents the cold Peruvian flow, heading along the coarse Ecuador and Peru north. In the area of \u200b\u200bthe Galapagos Islands, under the influence of trade winds, it turns to the West, moving to the southern equatorial flow, which is relatively cold water in this direction along the equator. Throughout the boundary of his contact in the area of \u200b\u200bthe equator with a warm interpassate anti-cross-section, an equatorial front is formed, which prevents the flow of warm waters of antifreeze to the coast of Latin America.

Thanks to such a system of circulation of water along the coast of Peru, in the district of the Peruvian current, there is a huge area of \u200b\u200blifting relative to cold deep waters, well-fertilized by mineral compounds, - Peruvian appelle. Naturally, it provides a high level of biological productivity in the area. Such a picture was called "La Niña" (translated from the Spanish "baby girl"). This "sister" El Niño is quite harmless.

In the anomalous climatic conditions, La Nina's climatic conditions is reincarnated in El Niño: the Cold Peruvian current, as neither paradoxically, practically stops, "overlapping" thereby lifting deep cold waters in the area of \u200b\u200bthe Apuvelling zone, and as a result, the productivity of coastal waters is sharply reduced. The temperature of the ocean surface in the whole area rises to 21-23 o C, and sometimes to 25-29 ° C. The temperature contrast on the border of the southern equatorial flow with a warm interpassate or generally disappears - the equatorial front is blurred, and the warm water of the equatorial countercurring will be easily applied towards the coast of Latin America.

Intensity, scale and duration of El Niño can change significantly. For example, in 1982-1983, in the period intensely intense over the 130-year term of the observation of El Niño, this phenomenon began in September 1982 and lasted until August 1983. At the same time, the maximum values \u200b\u200bof the surface temperature of the ocean in the coastal cities of Peru from Talara to Callao exceeded the mid-year-old for November-July for 8-10 o. In Talara, they reached 29 o C, and in Callao - 24 o C. Even in the most southernmost areas of development The catastrophes (18 degrees of the southern latitude) of the anomalies of the coastal values \u200b\u200bof the ocean surface temperature were 6-7 o C, and the total area of \u200b\u200bthe Pacific Ocean, covered by El Niño, was equal to 13 million km 2.

Naturally, at such a scale and intensity of the phenomenon of the anomalies of climatic parameters, not only spread to the continental periphery of the Pacific Ocean, but also reached Northern Europe and South Africa. A similar situation was noted in the period 1997-1998. Moreover, scientists believe that Super-El Niño could happen in the distant geological past, which lasted in 200 years, which in addition to short-term climate abnormalities led to long warming periods.

It is curious that over the past 50 years, as in the previous half-century period, in the nature of the ocean surface temperature anomalies in the EL-Niño development area, a whole range of cycles has been highlighted - from 2 to 7 years, but they all turned out to be unreliable for the forecast of the phenomenon.

Atmospheric "Swing"

After acquaintance with the oceanic mechanisms for the development of El Niño, it is logical to ask: what power stops the Cold Peruvian current? The answer to this question makes to turn to one of the "conductors" of the life of the marine ecosystem - atmospheric circulation.

In 1924, the English meteorologist Gilbert Walker developed and successfully applied in practice the so-called "method of world weather", which is based on the search for "distant links" between changes in the hydrometeorological elements in various parts of the globe. Exploring the nature of monsoon winds in South and Southeast Asia, Walker analyzed the anomalies of atmospheric pressure in the subtropical zone of the southern hemisphere and concluded that monsions are part of the global circulation of the atmosphere, and not its regional element. It turned out that over the Australian-Indonesian region of the Indian Ocean and over the waters of the southern part of the Pacific Ocean (Tahiti Island District), atmospheric pressure, not without the help of Indian monsoon, is changed in antiphase. The centers of the action of these gigantic "swings" pressure are arranged, therefore, in the southern hemisphere - therefore, the name "Southern oscillation" appeared.

Only in 40 years, in 1966-1969, the Norwegian meteorologist Jacob Bjerknes tied the southern oscillation from El Niño. He managed to establish that when the "swing" is tilted toward Australia, Peruvian Awerewing works fine, Sustainable Passats drive cold water past the Galapagos Islands to the West (towards low pressure) along the equator. That is, there is a "cold" phase of southern oscillations - La Niña, during which the environmental catastrophe on the planet does not occur. At the same time, the level of the Pacific Ocean in its western part half the meter is higher than in Eastern: the trade winds are catching up to the west of warm water.

In the case when the "swing" is tilted towards Tahiti, wait for trouble, it fails in the usual circulation system of the Pacific Ocean, the trade winds weaken until the direction of the direction to the eastern (in the direction of low pressure), and warm water from the coast of New Guinea rushes East. The Peruvian current for this reason "stops", and further develops the entire chain of events associated with the "warm" phase of southern oscillations - El Niño. At the same time, the level difference in the eastern and western parts of the ocean changes the sign. Now he is already in the eastern part half the meter higher than in Western.

Such a mechanism for the interaction of the atmosphere and the ocean during the periods of El Niño gave reason to assume that, in the first place, this phenomenon reflects the ocean reaction to the impact of variables of trade winds. Clearly registered levels of level fluctuations on the eastern and western periphery of the Pacific Ocean when changing the "warm" and cold "El Niño phases are presented, in fact, the same" swings ", but not in the atmosphere, but in the ocean. The cause of their swinging is the trade-stone winds. After changing their traditional direction or attenuation of the intensity, the warm water in the form of the so-called inner wave of Kelvin "rolled back" to the shores of the Peru and Ecuador and contributes to the depression of the ocevelev and an increase in the surface temperature of the ocean in the form of the Western Ocean's Ocean.

After opening the Bjaknes of the connection of the EL-Niño phenomenon with a southern oscillation to evaluate the degree of perturbation (abnormality of the state) of global atmospheric and ocean circulation, scientists began to use the El Niño / South oscillation index (SOUTHERN OSCIRLATION INDEX). It gives the quantitative characteristic of the southern hesitation and reflects the pressure difference over the island of Tahiti and the city of Darwin in Northern Australia.

The researchers tried to identify the patterns of changing the SOI index, which would predict the time of the ecological catastrophe, but, unfortunately, for almost a 130-year history of pressure observations in the centers of southern oscillations (as well as in the case of the ocean surface anomalies) visible sustainable There were no cycles in its changes. The EL Niño phenomenon is repeated with an interval of 4 to 18 years, 6-8-year intervals were most often marked.

Such conformity in cycles suggests that, most likely, scientists take into account not all the factors involved in the development of this phenomenon. And most recently, the assumption was confirmed.

Planet Yula swings the ocean

Oceanic and meteorological processes and causal relations responsible for the emergence of El Niño are developing in aquatic environment and above the surface of the Earth, which is known to rotate around its axis at a speed of 7.29 . 10 -5 Rad / s. The axis of rotation is tilted to the plane of the earth orbit - ecliptic - at an angle of 66 o 33 ".

Since the land is flattened along the axis and is an ellipsoid of rotation, then its equator is observed an excess mass. The forces of attraction of the moon and the sun, thus, are applied not to the center of mass of our planet. As a result, the moment of forces arises, which causes the land to precessive, bend forward, at the same time rotating. The earth's axis, it turns out that "swinging" from side to the side with a period of 26 thousand years and an angular amplitude of 27 o 27 ", describing the cone, for sure, with a weak factory. But that's not all. The moments of the attraction forces forcing the land" swing " , depending on its position in relation to the moon and the Sun, which, naturally, is constantly changing. As a result, it takes a nation (oscillation) of the axis of rotation of the earth. It is manifested in the short-range axis oscillations ("vibrations") with a period of 428 days and corner amplitude of only 18.4 ". All these mechanisms cause the "bias" of poles with a period of 6 years and a maximum deviation from the middle position only 15 m.

The joint impact of the described complex of geophysical factors is expressed in development in the atmosphere and the global ocean of lunar-solaric utting oscillations. They, in turn, enhance the waves of pole tides, which arise as a result of the "beating" of poles. The sum of these geophysical variations undoubtedly affects the development of El Niño.

Farewell, Guano!

The most expensive national property of any state is definitely people living in it. But if you approach the question more pragmatic, then under this concept most often implies natural resources. In one country - deposits of oil and gas, in another - field of gold and diamonds or other valuable minerals. In this sense, the state of Peru is unique: one of the most significant national riches of the country is ... Guano - bird litter.

The fact is that on the coast of the state there is the largest community of birds (up to 30 million individuals), intensively producing the best of natural fertilizers, containing 9% of nitrogen compounds and 13% phosphorus. The main suppliers of this wealth are three species of birds: Peruvian Boglan, Pestrade Olusha and Pelican. For many centuries, they produced "fertilizer's" fertilizers height up to 50 m. To achieve such productivity, birds have to eat 2.5 million tons of fish per year - 20-25% of the world catch of anchosic fish. The benefit of APVELING provides in the area the accumulation of inconspicuous reserves of the main bird food - the Peruvian Anchova. During the years of La Nigniya, his number off the coast of Peru is so great that food is enough not only to birds, but also to people. Until recently, the catch of the fishermen of this relatively small country reached 12.5 million tons per year - twice as much as all other countries of North and Central America are produced. It is not surprising that the revenue of the fish industry to Peru is one third of the country's gross foreign trade income.

During El Niño Upwelling destroys, the productivity of coastal waters drops sharply, there is a massive death of anchovs from hunger and sharp warming of water. As a result, the feed base of birds - the accumulation of Anchovov - ceases to exist. The number of feathered fertilizer manufacturers in these periods is reduced by 5-6 times, and fishermen catch are symbolic.

Fateful long-distance communications

Among the huge number of spokeshes left to us by the philosophers of ancient Rome and Greece, the best motto of environmental research can be the expression "Premonitus PraemUnitus" ("Warned Armed"). Yes, today, scientists have something to warn millions of inhabitants of our planet.

During El Niño, 1982-1983 from flooding, droughts and other natural disasters, over two thousand people died, and material losses amounted to more than $ 13 billion. People were unarmed in the face of the elements, since they did not know about the coming catastrophes, although the mechanism of their development is more than simple.

The surface temperature of the water determines the location in the air over the surface of the ocean convection areas in which there is an intensive cloud formation. The greater the difference in the temperature of the water and the atmosphere, the more active this process takes place. With the phenomenon of La Niña along the Pacific Coast of Latin America, the water-air temperature contrast due to developed Upwelling is small. The clouds are not formed here, and rain rains, although due to the relatively low temperature of the water in the coastal zone of the coast of Peru represents the country of cold and fog. The sandy strip of sushi width of 40 km (from the ocean to the foot of the Andes) and a length of 2375 km, despite the proximity of the ocean, remains arid naked desert, since all moisture is settled on the slopes of the mountains. At the same time above Indonesia, Australia and the western part of the Pacific Ocean, which is under the influence of warm water, is the process of intensive climate, which determines the rainy, humid climate.

With the development of the EL Niño phenomenon, the situation changes. The spread of trade winds in the opposite direction (to the East) leads to a displacement from the western part of the Pacific Ocean along the equator to the central and eastern part of it (to the coast of America) of the masses of warm water and appropriate, but the area of \u200b\u200bintensive cloud formation and abundant precipitation. As a result, in the Australian -Indonesezian and even African regions, where there is usually wet rainy weather, drought comes, and on the west coast of South and North America, usually arid, torrential rains begin, flooding, landslides.

In addition, during the "warm" phase of southern fluctuations in the atmosphere gets a huge amount of excess heat, which is reflected in the wind mode and on the weather of extensive spaces of different continents. So, in January 1983, in the entire Western hemisphere due to El Niño, at an altitude of 9000 m above sea level, the positive anomalies of air temperature amounted to 2-4 o C. In November of the same year, the weather in the North American continent was 10 o with warmer Norms. In the winter of 1983/84, the Okhotsk Sea practically did not freeze, and in the Tatar Strait there was only in the northern, narrow part. In May 1983, in some areas of Peru fell 20 years of precipitation.

Finally, with long-term preservation of positive surface water temperature anomalies during periods of El Niño, the ocean has time to allocate gigantic carbon dioxide volumes, which undoubtedly contribute to the greenhouse effect. There are no accurate quantitative estimates of such supplies from 2 from the ocean. However, given the well-known examples of superiority of the power of natural processes over human capabilities, it is difficult to abandon the assumption that the guilt of the greenhouse effect is not a person burning organic fuel, but all the same El Niño.

Despite the seeming simplicity of environmental disaster and natural phenomena mechanisms associated with El Niño, to warn the world about the upcoming disaster scientists, unfortunately, can not yet. As in the case of oceanic fronts, large-scale currents and synoptic vortex formations that are exchanged energy and thus supporting each other, the phenomenon of El Niño turns out to be self-sustaining oscillation. Temperature anomalies of water in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, for example, affect the intensity of trade-wind winds, which are controlled by oceanic currents forming, in turn, the ocean surface temperature anomalies. In this cycle of phenomena, it is still not clear what kind of mechanisms listed is starting. What in the chain of events related to El Niño, the reason, and what is the investigation?

It is possible to clarify this issue will help the hypothesis of Professor Illinois University (USA) Paul Chandler, who suggested that the EL Niño process initiates volcanoes. Indeed, powerful eruptions are cooled by the latitudinal zone where they occur due to the allocation of a huge number of sulfuric anhydride and volcanic dust to the atmosphere, blocking the access of solar radiation to the earth's surface. Thus, according to a scientist, if the volcano earned in high latitudes, it will increase the contrast of temperatures between the equator and the pole, which will lead to the strengthening of the Passops and the development of La Niña. If the powerful eruption occurred in the Equatorial region, then the temperature contrast, on the contrary, will be less. The trade winds will weaken, and El Niño will arise. Such a mechanism is confirmed by statistical calculations: one of the Cycles of El Niño (3.8 years) practically coincides with the frequency of low-speed tropical eruptions (3.9 years).

Volcanic activity depends on solar activity, the cycles of which are studied quite well, and, in principle, the possibility of long-term prediction of El Niño appears. However, mathematical difficulties arising from solving this task make us state that while the prediction of the future catastrophes remains the case of the future.

LITERATURE

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Slogus to the article

APVELING (English. "UR" - top, "Well" - water lift) - the type of coastal circulation of the ocean, at which under the influence of the wind and the effect of the rotation of the Earth (Coriolis strength) is distilled in the direction of the sea, causing the outflow of warm surface waters and compensation In their place from the depths of cold rich in mineral salts (fertilizers) of the aquatic masses. In the World Ocean, there are five sustainable areas of Apwelling: Califori, Peruvian (Pacific Ocean), Canary, Bengelskaya (Atlantic) and Somali (Indian Ocean). Apewelling can cover the waters of water from 40 to 360 m at speeds of vertical movements 1-2 m per day. In the closed reservoirs, coastal appendicion is periodically developing after the winds of Sgonny (from the coast) of directions.

Convection (Lat. "Convectio" - delivery) - the type of vertical circulation of the atmosphere and waters of the ocean, developing as a result of stratification (temperature difference vertically) of the air and water masses (raising more warm and lowering colder).

Passat (it. "Passat" - reliable, permanent) - resistant winds on both sides of the equator (between 30 degrees. Northern and South latitude), having, regardless of the time of year, in the northern hemisphere north-east, and in South - Southeast direction.

Countercover - The flow that arose by hydrodynamic reasons on the periphery of the main jet flow, the opposite direction in the direction.

Termoklin - layer of maximum temperature difference vertically in the ocean.

Southern oscillation - The phenomenon of the synchronous multidirectional change in the pressure in the southern hemisphere over the waters of the quiet (Tahiti Island) and Indian (Darwin, Australia) oceans.

07.12.2007 14:23

Fires and floods, droughts and hurricanes - everyone together fell on our land in 1997. Fires turned into the ashes of Indonesia's forests, then stuck on the expanses of Australia. Livni was gaining over the Chilean Desert Atakam, which is characterized by special dryness. Heavy rains, floods were not spared and southern America. The total damage from the peculiarity of the element amounted to about 50 billion dollars. The cause of all these disasters meteorologists consider the EL Niño phenomenon.

El Niño in Spanish means "baby." So called the anomalous warming of the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Ecuador and Peru, which happens every few years. This affectionate name reflects only the fact that the beginning of El Niño most often falls on Christmas holidays, and the fishermen of the west coast of South America tied him with the name of Jesus in infancy.

In normal years, along the entire Pacific coast of South America, due to the coastal lifting of cold depths, caused by the surface cold peruvian flow, the surface temperature of the ocean fluctuates in narrow seasonal limits - from 15 ° C to 19 ° C. During the EL-Niño period, the temperature of the ocean surface in the coastal zone increases by 6-10 ° C. As geological and paleoclimatic studies testified, the phenomenon mentioned exists at least 100 thousand years. The temperature fluctuations of the surface layer of the ocean from extremely warm to neutral or cold occur with periods from 2 to 10 years. Currently, the term "El Niño" is used in relation to situations where abnormally warm surface water occupy not only the coastal region near South America, but also most of the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean up to 180 meridian.

There is a constant warm current, originating from the shores of Peru and the arranged to the archipelago lying southeast of the Asian continent. It is an elongated tongue of heated water, in the area of \u200b\u200bequal territory of the United States. Heated water is intensively evaporated and "pumped" the atmosphere of energy. Clouds are formed over the heated ocean. Usually, trade-stone winds (constant oriental winds in the tropical zone) chase a layer of this warm water from the American coast towards Asia. In about the Indonesia region, the current stops, and monsoon rains are shedding over the south of Asia.

At El Niño in the area of \u200b\u200bthe equator, this course warms up stronger than usual, therefore the trade wind winds weaken or do not completely blow. The heated water spreads to the sides, goes back to the American shore. An abnormal convection zone occurs. Rains and hurricanes are condensed to central and southern America. Over the past 20 years, five active cycles of El Niño are noted: 1982-83, 1986-87, 1991-1993, 1994-95 and 1997-98.

The Phenomenon of La Niño is the opposite of El Niño, manifests itself as a decrease in the surface temperature of the water below the climate norm in the east of the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean. Such cycles were noted in 1984-85, 1988-89 and 1995-96. Unusual cold weather is installed in the East of the Pacific Ocean during this period. During the formation of La Niño, trade house (oriental) winds from the west coast of both Americas are significantly enhanced. The winds shift the warm water zone and the "Language" of cold waters stretches 5,000 km, precisely in that place (Ecuador - Samoa island), where with El Niño should be a tiny water belt. During this period in Indochina, India and Australia, powerful monsoon rains are observed. The countries of the Caribbean and the United States suffer from drought and tornado. La Niño, like El Niño, most often arises from December to March. The difference is that El Niño occurs on average once every three or four years, and La Niño - every six to seven years. Both phenomena carry with them an increased number of hurricanes, but during La Niño there are three or four times more than with El Niño.

According to the latest observations, the accuracy of the onset of El Niño or La Niño, you can determine if:

1. In the area of \u200b\u200bthe Equator, in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, a stain of warmer water is formed than usual (El Niño), coolest (La Niño).

2. The trend of atmospheric pressure is compared between the Darwin port (Australia) and Tahiti Island. At El Niño, the pressure on Tahiti will be high, and in Darwin low. With La Niño - on the contrary.

Studies conducted in the last 50 years have made it possible to establish that El Niño means something more than simply agreed oscillations of surface pressure and ocean water temperature. El Niño and La Niño are the most pronounced manifestations of the interannual climate variability on a global scale. These phenomena are large-scale changes in ocean temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, vertical air movements over the tropical part of the Pacific Ocean.

Abnormal weather conditions on the globe in the years of El Niño

In the tropics there is an increase in precipitation over the polls to the east of the central part of the Pacific Ocean and a decrease in the norm in the north of Australia, in Indonesia and the Philippines. In December-February, precipitation is more than the norm on the coast of Ecuador, in the north-west Peru, above South Brazil, Central Argentina and over the Equatorial, eastern Africa, during June-August in the West of the United States and over the central part of Chile.

EL Niño phenomena are also responsible for large-scale air temperature anomalies around the world. These years are outstanding temperature increases. Warm than normal, conditions in December-February were over Southeast Asia, over Primorye, Japan, Japanese Sea, over Southeast Africa and Brazil, Southeast Australia. Warm than normal, temperatures are celebrated in June-August in the west of the coast of South America and over Southeast Brazil. Cooling winter (December-February) are on the southwest US coast.

Abnormal weather conditions on the globe during the years of La Niño

During the periods of La Niño, the precipitation is enhanced over the western equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, Indonesia and the Philippines and are almost completely absent in the eastern part. More precipitation falls in December-February in the north of South America and over South Africa, and in June-August over Southeast Australia. More dry than normal conditions are observed over the coast of Ecuador, over the North-West Peru and the equatorial part of East Africa during December-February, and over South Brazil and Central Argentina in June-August. Around the world, large-scale deviations from the norm with the largest number of areas experiencing abnormally cool conditions are noted. Cold winters in Japan and in Primorye, over South Alaska and Western, Central Canada. Cool summer seasons over Southeast Africa, above India and Southeast Asia. Warm winter over the southwest of the United States.

Some aspects of teleconnection

Despite the fact that the main events associated with El Niño occur in the tropical zone, they are closely related to the processes occurring in other regions of the globe. This can be traced in long-distance connections in the territory and time - teleconference. During the years of El Niño, the transfer of energy in the troposphere of tropical and moderate latitudes increases. This is manifested in an increase in thermal contrast between tropical and polar latitudes, activating cyclonic and anticyclonic activity in moderate latitudes. FROMNIIGMI was calculated by the repeatability of cyclones and anticyclones along the northern part of the Pacific Ocean from 120 ° V.D. up to 120 ° C It turned out that cyclones in a strip of 40 ° -60 ° S.Sh. and anticyclones in the strip 25 ° -40 ° C.Sh. It is formed in the subsequent winter after El Niño more than in the previous ones, i.e. The processes in the winter months after EL Niño are characterized by greater activity than before this period.

During the years of El Niño:

1. Honolulsky and Asian anticyclones are weakened;

2. Filled summer depression over the south of Eurasia, which is the main reason for the weakening of the monsoon over India;

3. More than the usually developed summer depression over the Amur Basin, as well as the Winter Aleuta and Icelandic Depression.

On the territory of Russia during the years of El Niño, areas of significant anomalies of air temperature are distinguished. In the spring, the temperature field is characterized by negative anomalies, that is, spring in the years of El Niño is usually cold for most of Russia. In the summer, the focus of negative anomalies over the Far East and Eastern Siberia remains, and the foci of positive anomalies of air temperature appear above the Western Siberia and the European part of Russia. In the autumn months, significant anomalies of air temperature over the territory of Russia are not allocated. It should be noted only that in the European part of the country the temperature background is slightly lower than usual. In the years of El Niño, there are warm winters over most of the territory. The focus of negative anomalies is traced only over the northeast of Eurasia.

Currently we are in the period of weakening the El Niño cycle - during the period of the average temperature distribution of the ocean surface. (El Niño and La Niño phenomena represent opposite extremal values \u200b\u200bof ocean water oscillation cycles and ocean water temperature).

Over the past few years, great successes have been achieved in a comprehensive study of the EL Niño phenomenon. Scientists believe that the key issues of this problem are the oscillations of the atmosphere - the ocean - land. In this case, the atmosphere is the so-called southern oscillation (agreed oscillations of the surface pressure in the subtropical anticyclone in the southeast of the Pacific Ocean and in a hollow stretching from Northern Australia to Indonesia), ocean fluctuations - EL Niño and La Niño phenomena and land fluctuations - movement of geographic poles. Also, great importance in the study of the EL Niño phenomena has the study of the effects of external space factors on the atmosphere of the Earth.

Especially for the Primigode, the leading weather forecasters of the Department of Meteoprognosis of Primorsky UGMS T. D. Mikhailenko and E. Yu. Leonova