07.12.2007 14:23
Fires and floods, droughts and hurricanes - everyone together fell on our land in 1997. Fires turned into the ashes of Indonesia's forests, then stuck on the expanses of Australia. Livni was gaining over the Chilean Desert Atakam, which is characterized by special dryness. Heavy rains, floods were not spared and southern America. The total damage from the peculiarity of the element amounted to about 50 billion dollars. The cause of all these disasters meteorologists consider the EL Niño phenomenon.
El Niño in Spanish means "baby." So called the anomalous warming of the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Ecuador and Peru, which happens every few years. This affectionate name reflects only the fact that the beginning of El Niño most often falls on Christmas holidays, and the fishermen of the west coast of South America tied him with the name of Jesus in infancy.
In normal years, along the entire Pacific coast of South America, due to the coastal lifting of cold depths, caused by the surface cold peruvian flow, the surface temperature of the ocean fluctuates in narrow seasonal limits - from 15 ° C to 19 ° C. During the EL-Niño period, the temperature of the ocean surface in the coastal zone increases by 6-10 ° C. As geological and paleoclimatic studies testified, the phenomenon mentioned exists at least 100 thousand years. The temperature fluctuations of the surface layer of the ocean from extremely warm to neutral or cold occur with periods from 2 to 10 years. Currently, the term "El Niño" is used in relation to situations where abnormally warm surface water occupy not only the coastal region near South America, but also most of the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean up to 180 meridian.
There is a constant warm current, originating from the shores of Peru and the arranged to the archipelago lying southeast of the Asian continent. It is an elongated tongue of heated water, in the area of \u200b\u200bequal territory of the United States. Heated water is intensively evaporated and "pumped" the atmosphere of energy. Clouds are formed over the heated ocean. Usually, trade-stone winds (constant oriental winds in the tropical zone) chase a layer of this warm water from the American coast towards Asia. In about the Indonesia region, the current stops, and monsoon rains are shedding over the south of Asia.
At El Niño in the area of \u200b\u200bthe equator, this course warms up stronger than usual, therefore the trade wind winds weaken or do not completely blow. The heated water spreads to the sides, goes back to the American shore. An abnormal convection zone occurs. Rains and hurricanes are condensed to central and southern America. Over the past 20 years, five active cycles of El Niño are noted: 1982-83, 1986-87, 1991-1993, 1994-95 and 1997-98.
The Phenomenon of La Niño is the opposite of El Niño, manifests itself as a decrease in the surface temperature of the water below the climate norm in the east of the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean. Such cycles were noted in 1984-85, 1988-89 and 1995-96. Unusual cold weather is installed in the East of the Pacific Ocean during this period. During the formation of La Niño, trade house (oriental) winds from the west coast of both Americas are significantly enhanced. The winds shift the warm water zone and the "Language" of cold waters stretches 5,000 km, precisely in that place (Ecuador - Samoa island), where with El Niño should be a tiny water belt. During this period in Indochina, India and Australia, powerful monsoon rains are observed. The countries of the Caribbean and the United States suffer from drought and tornado. La Niño, like El Niño, most often arises from December to March. The difference is that El Niño occurs on average once every three or four years, and La Niño - every six to seven years. Both phenomena carry with them an increased number of hurricanes, but during La Niño there are three or four times more than with El Niño.
According to the latest observations, the accuracy of the onset of El Niño or La Niño, you can determine if:
1. In the area of \u200b\u200bthe Equator, in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, a stain of warmer water is formed than usual (El Niño), coolest (La Niño).
2. The trend of atmospheric pressure is compared between the Darwin port (Australia) and Tahiti Island. At El Niño, the pressure on Tahiti will be high, and in Darwin low. With La Niño - on the contrary.
Studies conducted in the last 50 years have made it possible to establish that El Niño means something more than simply agreed oscillations of surface pressure and ocean water temperature. El Niño and La Niño are the most pronounced manifestations of the interannual climate variability on a global scale. These phenomena are large-scale changes in ocean temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, vertical air movements over the tropical part of the Pacific Ocean.
Abnormal weather conditions on the globe in the years of El Niño
In the tropics there is an increase in precipitation over the polls to the east of the central part of the Pacific Ocean and a decrease in the norm in the north of Australia, in Indonesia and the Philippines. In December-February, precipitation is more than the norm on the coast of Ecuador, in the north-west Peru, above South Brazil, Central Argentina and over the Equatorial, eastern Africa, during June-August in the West of the United States and over the central part of Chile.
EL Niño phenomena are also responsible for large-scale air temperature anomalies around the world. These years are outstanding temperature increases. Warm than normal, conditions in December-February were over Southeast Asia, over Primorye, Japan, Japanese Sea, over Southeast Africa and Brazil, Southeast Australia. Warm than normal, temperatures are celebrated in June-August in the west of the coast of South America and over Southeast Brazil. Cooling winter (December-February) are on the southwest US coast.
Abnormal weather conditions on the globe during the years of La Niño
During the periods of La Niño, the precipitation is enhanced over the western equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, Indonesia and the Philippines and are almost completely absent in the eastern part. More precipitation falls in December-February in the north of South America and over South Africa, and in June-August over Southeast Australia. More dry than normal conditions are observed over the coast of Ecuador, over the North-West Peru and the equatorial part of East Africa during December-February, and over South Brazil and Central Argentina in June-August. Around the world, large-scale deviations from the norm with the largest number of areas experiencing abnormally cool conditions are noted. Cold winters in Japan and in Primorye, over South Alaska and Western, Central Canada. Cool summer seasons over Southeast Africa, above India and Southeast Asia. Warm winter over the southwest of the United States.
Some aspects of teleconnection
Despite the fact that the main events associated with El Niño occur in the tropical zone, they are closely related to the processes occurring in other regions of the globe. This can be traced in long-distance connections in the territory and time - teleconference. During the years of El Niño, the transfer of energy in the troposphere of tropical and moderate latitudes increases. This is manifested in an increase in thermal contrast between tropical and polar latitudes, activating cyclonic and anticyclonic activity in moderate latitudes. FROMNIIGMI was calculated by the repeatability of cyclones and anticyclones along the northern part of the Pacific Ocean from 120 ° V.D. up to 120 ° C It turned out that cyclones in a strip of 40 ° -60 ° S.Sh. and anticyclones in the strip 25 ° -40 ° C.Sh. It is formed in the subsequent winter after El Niño more than in the previous ones, i.e. The processes in the winter months after EL Niño are characterized by greater activity than before this period.
During the years of El Niño:
1. Honolulsky and Asian anticyclones are weakened;
2. Filled summer depression over the south of Eurasia, which is the main reason for the weakening of the monsoon over India;
3. More than the usually developed summer depression over the Amur Basin, as well as the Winter Aleuta and Icelandic Depression.
On the territory of Russia during the years of El Niño, areas of significant anomalies of air temperature are distinguished. In the spring, the temperature field is characterized by negative anomalies, that is, spring in the years of El Niño is usually cold for most of Russia. In the summer, the focus of negative anomalies over the Far East and Eastern Siberia remains, and the foci of positive anomalies of air temperature appear above the Western Siberia and the European part of Russia. In the autumn months, significant anomalies of air temperature over the territory of Russia are not allocated. It should be noted only that in the European part of the country the temperature background is slightly lower than usual. In the years of El Niño, there are warm winters over most of the territory. The focus of negative anomalies is traced only over the northeast of Eurasia.
Currently we are in the period of weakening the El Niño cycle - during the period of the average temperature distribution of the ocean surface. (El Niño and La Niño phenomena represent opposite extremal values \u200b\u200bof ocean water oscillation cycles and ocean water temperature).
Over the past few years, great successes have been achieved in a comprehensive study of the EL Niño phenomenon. Scientists believe that the key issues of this problem are the oscillations of the atmosphere - the ocean - land. In this case, the atmosphere is the so-called southern oscillation (agreed oscillations of the surface pressure in the subtropical anticyclone in the southeast of the Pacific Ocean and in a hollow stretching from Northern Australia to Indonesia), ocean fluctuations - EL Niño and La Niño phenomena and land fluctuations - movement of geographic poles. Also, great importance in the study of the EL Niño phenomena has the study of the effects of external space factors on the atmosphere of the Earth.
Especially for the Primigode, the leading weather forecasters of the Department of Meteoprognosis of Primorsky UGMS T. D. Mikhailenko and E. Yu. Leonova
Posted by: S. Gerasimov
On April 18, 1998, the newspaper "The World News" placed the article N. Barfolomeva "Moscow snowfall and mystery of Fenomena El Niño" in which it was said: "... We have not yet learned to be afraid of the word El Niño ... it is El Niño is a threat to life on the planet ... The Phenomenon of El Niño is practically not studied, the nature of it is unclear, he is not amenable to a forecast, which means that in the full sense of the word of a slow-acting bomb ... If you immediately make an effort to clarify the nature of this strange phenomenon, humanity cannot be confident in the future " Agree that all this looks great, just becomes scary. Unfortunately, everything that is talking about in the newspaper is not a fiction, no cheap sensation to raise the edition. El Niño is a real unpredictable natural phenomenon - a warm current called so affectionately.
El Niño in Spanish means "baby", "Little Boy." Such a gentle name arose in Peru, where local fishermen have come across the incomprehensible riddle of nature: in other years, water in the ocean suddenly heats up and departs from the shores. And it happens just under Christmas. That is why Peruvians tied their miracle with the Christian Christmas sacrament: in Spanish El Niño called the Holy Baby of Christ. True, before it did not bring such troubles, as now. Why sometimes the phenomenon demonstrates its full force, and in other cases there is not almost manifest? And how is the Peruvian miracle caused, the consequences of which are very serious and sad?
For 20 years, the whole scientific army examines the space between Indonesia and South America. 13 meteorological ships, replacing a friend, are constantly in these waters. On the set of buoys, appliances are supplied to measure water temperature from the surface to a depth of 400 meters. Seven aircraft and five satellites barrage sky over the ocean to get the overall picture of the state of the atmosphere and including to deal with the mysterious natural phenomenon of El Niño. With this episodically emerging warm flow from the coast of Peru and Ecuador bind the emergence of adverse weather and cataclysms around the world. It is difficult to follow him - this is not a golfustrim, stubbornly moving along the Millenniums installed route. Al Niño arises like a devil from the box, once every three to seven years. From the side it looks like this: from time to time in the Pacific Ocean - from the coast of Peru up to the Oceania Islands - a very warm giant course appears, in the total area equal to the area of \u200b\u200bthe United States - about 100 million km2. It is pulled out with a long, tough sleeve. Above this huge space as a result of increased evaporation in the atmosphere, colossal energy is pumped. The EL-Niño effect releases the energy of 450 million megawatts, which equals the total capacity of 300 thousand large nuclear power plants. As if one more thing is extra - the sun rises from the Pacific Ocean, heating our planet! And then, as if in a giant boiler, branded climatic dishes of the year are boiled between America and Asia.
The first, naturally, the Peruvian fishermen are celebrated by the "appearance of the light". They are worried about the disappearance of Sardin Kosyakov coast. The direct cause of fish care lies, as it turned out, in the disappearance of the feed. Sardines, and not only they feed on phytoplankton, the component of which is microscopic algae. And algae needs sunlight and biogenic elements, primarily nitrogen, phosphorus. They are in ocean water, and their stock in the upper layer is constantly updated with vertical currents, walking from the bottom to the surface. But when the flow of El Niño turns back, towards South America, its warm waters "lock" the output of deep waters. Biogenic elements are not risening to the surface, the reproduction of algae is suspended. Fish leaves these places - she lacks food. But sharks appear. They also react to "malfunctions" in the ocean: bloodthirsty robbery attracts the water temperature - it increases by 5-9 ° C. It is in this sharp increase in the temperature of the surface layer of water in the east of the Pacific (in tropical and central parts) and the phenomenon of el- Niño. What happens to the ocean?
In the usual years, the ocean's warm surface water is transported and held by the eastern winds - trade winds - in the western zone of the tropical part of the Pacific Ocean, where the so-called tropical warm pool (TTB) is formed. It should be noted that the depth of this warm water reservoir reaches 100-200 meters. The formation of such a huge heat reservoir is the main necessary condition for the birth of Al Niño. At the same time, as a result of the head of water, the ocean level off the coast of Indonesia is two feet higher than that of South America's coast. At the same time, the temperature of the water surface in the west in the tropical zone is an average of + 29-30 ° C, and in the east + 22-24 ° C. A small cooling of the surface in the East is the result of lifting deep cold water on the surface of the ocean during water suction trade winds. At the same time, TTB in the atmosphere is formed the largest heat area and stationary unstable equilibrium in the ocean-atmosphere system (when all the forces are balanced and TTB is immobile).
According to unknown, for now reasons, once every three or seven years, the trade winds suddenly weaken, the balance and warm waters of the Western basin are disturbed to the east, creating one of the strongest warm currents in the World Ocean. On a huge area in the east of the Pacific Ocean, in the tropical and central equatorial parts, there is a sharp increase in the temperature of the surface layer of the ocean. This is an offensive of El Niño. Its beginning was noted by a long-lasting Natius of squall Western winds. They replace the usual weak trade winds over the warm western part of the Pacific Ocean and block the rise of cold depth water to the surface, that is, the usual circulation of water in the world ocean is disturbed. Unfortunately, such a scientific, dry explanation of the reasons is nothing compared with the consequences.
But here the gigantic "baby" was born. Each of his "sigh", every "swatch" causes the processes that are global. El Niño is usually accompanied by environmental disasters: droughts, fires, storm rains, causing flooding of huge territories of densely populated areas, which leads to the death of people and the destruction of livestock and harvest in different parts of the Earth. El Niño has a noticeable impact on the state of the global economy. According to American experts, in 1982-1983, economic damage from his "trial" in the United States amounted to $ 13 billion and died from one and a half to two thousand people, and according to the leadership of the world's leading insurance company MUNICH RE Damage in 1997-1998 is already evaluated 34 billion dollars and 24 thousand human life.
Drought and rains, hurricanes, tornadoes and snowfalls are the main Sam Niño satellites. All this as if on the team together rolling on the ground. During his "Coming" in 1997-1998, the fires turned the tropical forests of Indonesia into ashes, and then stuck on the expanses of Australia. They reached the suburbs of Melbourne. The ashes flew to New Zealand - for 2,000 kilometers. Tornado rushed where there had never been. Solar California was attacked by the "hole" - Tornado (so in the US called the tornado) of unprecedented sizes - 142 kilometers in diameter. He was rushed over Los Angeles, almost eating the roof from the Hollywood film studios. Two weeks later, another tornado - "Paulina" - fell on Mexico. The famous resort Acapulco was attacked by ten-meter ocean waves - destroyed construction, the streets are littered with fragments of buildings, garbage and beach furniture. Floods were not spared and southern America. Hundreds of thousands of peasants Peru flew by flight from the offensive of the water that fell from the sky, the fields died, flooded with mud. Where the streams were burned before, stormy streams swept. At the Chilean Desert of Atakam, which has always differed in such an extraordinary dryness that Nasa was there that the Martian all-terrain route was tested, torrential rains were collapsed. There were catastrophic floods and in Africa.
In other parts of the planet, climate ensession also brought misfortunes. On New Guinea - one of the largest islands of the planet, is mainly in the eastern part of it, the earth fused from the heat and drought. Tropical greenery dried, the wells remained without water, the crop died. Poltsychai man died of hunger. There was a threat to the cholera epidemic.
Usually, the "little boy" sports months 18, so on the planet he has time to change the time of year several times. He gives himself a felt not only in the summer, but also in winter. And if at the junction of 1982-1983 in the village of Paradise (USA), it was 28 m 57 cm of snow for a year, then in the winter season 1998/99, thanks to the phenomenon of El Niño on a ski base on a mountain Baker in a few days, drifts in 29 meters increased 13 cm.
And if you think that these cataclysms do not affect the expanses of Europe, Siberia or the Far East, then deeply mistaken. Everything that happens in the Pacific Ocean, "Auuca" throughout the planet. This is a monstrous snowfall in Moscow, and 11 floods of the Neva - a record for three hundred years of existence of St. Petersburg, and + 20 ° C in October in Western Siberia. It was then that scientists with anxiety spoke about the retreat of the border of permafrost to the north.
And if earlier meteorologists and other experts did not know what caused such "collars" in the weather, now the reason for all disasters is considered the return flow of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. It is studied along and across, but cannot squeeze into any framework. Scientists only with their hands are divorced - anomalous climatic phenomenon.
And what is most interesting, drew attention to this phenomenon only in the last 100 years. But, as it turned out, the mysterious El Niño has many millions of years. Thus, the archaeologist M. Moselie argues that 1,100 years ago, a powerful flow, or rather, the natural disasters generated by them, destroyed the system of irrigation channels and thus destroyed the highly developed culture of the Great State in Peru. Humanity simply did not yet associate these natural cataclysms with him. Scientists began to carefully analyze everything connected with the "baby", and even studied it "pedigree."
For a discovered curtains of secrets El Niño, Houon's peninsula was chosen in the New Guinea Island Area. It consists of a series of coral reef terraces. Some of this island is constantly rising due to the tectonic movement, and thus samples of coral reef are taken to the surface, which is approximately 130,000 years old. Analysis of the isotope and chemical data of these ancient corals helped scientists to highlight 14 climatic "windows" for 20-100 years each. Cold (40,000 years ago) and warm periods were analyzed (125,000 years ago) in order to assess the characteristic flow features in various climatic modes. The resulting samples of corals indicate that EL Ninah was not so intense as in the last hundred years. Here are the years in which his abnormal activity was recorded: 1864,1871,1877-1878,1884,1891,1899,1911-1912, 1925-1926, 1939-1941, 1957-1958, 1965-1966, 1972, 1976, 1982 -1983, 1986-1987, 1992-1993, 1997-1998, 2002-2003. As can be seen, the "phenomenon" of El Niño occurs more and more often, continues longer and brings more and more trouble. The most intensive are periods from 1982 to 1983 and from 1997 to 1998.
The discovery of the phenomenon of El Niño is considered an event of the century. After prolonged studies, scientists have found that a warm western pool is usually one year after El Niño enter the opposite phase, the so-called La Niña, when the eastern part of the Pacific is cooled at 5 ° C below the average level. Then the restoration processes are beginning to operate, which collapses the Western North American coast of cold fronts, accompanied by hurricanes, tornads and thunderstorms. That is, destructive forces continue their work. At the same time, it was noted that on the 13 periods of El Niño there were 18 phases of La Ninia. Scientists were only able to make sure that the distribution of the TTB anomalies in the area under study does not correspond to the normal and therefore the empirical probability of the appearance of La Niña is 1.7 times greater than the likelihood of El Niño.
The causes of the occurrence and increasing intensity of return currents are still a mystery for researchers. The climatologists in their studies often help historical materials. Australian scientist William de la Mare, having studied old news of the Kitoboev since 1931 and until 1986 (when whale hunt was banned), determined that the hunt, as a rule, ended at the edge of the formed ice. The figures show that the summer border of the ice from the mid-fifties before the start of the seventies moved along latitude of 3 °, that is, about 1000 kilometers to the south (it is a southern hemisphere). This result coincides with the opinions of scientists who recognize the warming of the globe as a result of human activity. German scientist M. Latif from the Institute of Meteorology in Hamburg assumes that the indignant influence of El Niño is increasing due to the growing greenhouse effect. Unpleasant to lead about the fast warming come from the shores of Alaska: one hundred meters began to thinish the glacier, lososi changed the spawning time, spawned from the heat of the beetles devour the forest. Both polar caps of the planet cause anxiety from scientists. However, representatives of science did not agree in search of a response to a global question: does the "greenhouse effect" affect the Earth's atmosphere on the intensity of El Niño?
But still predicted the arrival of the "baby" specialists learned. And perhaps, only therefore the damage of the last two cycles did not have such tragic consequences. So a group of Russian scientists from the Obninsky Institute of Experimental Meteorology under the leadership of V. Pudov proposed a new approach to the prediction of El Niño. They decided to develop an already known idea that the emergence of the flow is associated with the development of tropical cyclones in the Filipino Sea area. And Typhoon, and El Niño are the consequences of the accumulation in the surface layer of the ocean of excess heat. The difference of these phenomena in scale: typhoons release excess warmth many times a year, and El Niño - once a few years. And it was also noticed that before El Niño was formed, the ratio of atmospheric pressure at two points is always changing: in Tahiti and Australian Darwin. It is "that the oscillation in the ratio of pressures turned out to be the sustainable feature in which meteorologists can now learn in advance about the approach of the" Terrible Baby ".
edited news Vendetta. - 20-10-2010, 13:02
After the period of the neutral position of the El Niño-La Niña cycle, observed in mid-2011, the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean in August began to cool, and from October so far there was a phenomenon of La Niña weak and moderate power.
"Forecasts made on the basis of mathematical models, and their expert interpretation testify that La Niña is close to maximum strength, and it will probably begin slowly to weaken in the coming months. However, the existing methods do not allow to predict the situation on May, therefore it is unclear what the situation will be in the Pacific - whether it will be El Niño, La Niña or a neutral position, "the report says.
Scientists noted that La Niña 2011-2012 was significantly weaker than in 2010-2011. The models predict that the temperature in the Pacific approaches the neutral values \u200b\u200bfrom March to May 2012.
La Niña 2010 was accompanied by a decrease in the area of \u200b\u200bclouds and the strengthening of trade winds. Pressure reduction led to heavy rains in Australia, Indonesia and Southeast Asian countries. In addition, according to meteorologists, it is La Ninya who is responsible for strong rains in southern and drought in Eastern Equatorial Africa, as well as for a dry situation in the central regions of Southwestern Asia and in South America.
El Niño (Spanish El Niño - Kid, Boy) or South Oscillating (Eng. EL Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, Enso) - fluctuation of the temperature of the surface layer of water in the Equatorial part of the Pacific, having a noticeable effect on the climate. In a narrower sense of the El Niño - phase of southern oscillation, in which the area of \u200b\u200bheated surface waters is shifted to the east. At the same time, the trade winds are weakened or generally stopped, an upwelling is slowed down in the eastern Pacific, from the coast of Peru. The opposite phase of oscillation is called La Niña (Iz. La Niña - baby, girl). The characteristic time of oscillation is from 3 to 8 years, however, the power and duration of El Niño in reality varies greatly. So, in 1790-1793, 1828, 1876-1878, 1891, 1925-1926, 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, the powerful phases of El Niño were recorded, whereas, for example, in 1991-1992, 1993, 1994 is a phenomenon , often repeating, was weakly pronounced. El Niño 1997-1998 It was so strong that attracted the attention of the world community and the press. At the same time, the theories on the connection of southern oscillation with global climate change were spread. Since the beginning of the 1980s, El Niño also arose in 1986-1987 and 2002-2003.
Normal conditions along the western coast of Peru are determined by the Cold Peruvian flow carrying water from the south. Where the flow turns to the West, along the equator, from deep depressions there is a rise of cold and plankton waters, which contributes to the active development of life in the ocean. The very cold current determines the dryness of the climate in this part of Peru, forming the desert. The trade winds distinguish the heated surface layer of water into the western zone of tropical part of the Pacific Ocean, where the so-called tropical warm pool (TTB) is formed. In it, the water is funded to depths at 100-200 m. Atmospheric circulation of the Walker, manifested in the form of trade winds, together with reduced pressure over the Indonesia region, leads to the fact that in this place the level of the Pacific Ocean is 60 cm higher than in its eastern part . And the temperature of the water here reaches 29 - 30 ° C against 22 - 24 ° C off the coast of Peru. However, everything changes with the onset of El Niño. The trade winds weaken, TTB spreads, and on a huge Pacific area there is an increase in water temperature. In the area of \u200b\u200bPeru, the cold current is replaced by the Wet Water Most moving from the West to the coast of Peru with warm water mass, the Apuveling is weakening, the fish without food, and the wet winds bring wet air masses in the desert, causing even floods. The offensive of El Niño reduces the activity of atlantic tropical cyclones.
The first mention of the term "El Niño" refers to 1892, when Captain Camilo Carrilo reported at the Congress of the Geographical Society in Lima, that Peruvian sailors called the warm Northern flow of "El Niño", as it is most noticeable in the days of Catholic Christmas. In 1893, Charles Todd suggested that droughts in India and Australia occur at the same time. At the same point, indicated in 1904 and Norman Lockor. The connection of the warm northern current of the coast of Peru with floods in this country was reported in 1895. Pheets and Egigigün. For the first time, the phenomena of southern oscillation described in 1923 Gilbert Thomas Walker. He introduced the southern oscillations themselves, El Niño and La Niña themselves, considered the zonal convection circulation in the atmosphere in the Pacific Economic Area, which was now obtained by its name. For a long time, there was almost no attention to the phenomenon, considering it regional. Only by the end of the XX century. Claim the connections of El Niño with the climate of the planet.
Quantitative description
Currently, for the quantitative description of the EL Niño and La Niña phenomenon, as temperature anomalies of the surface layer of the electronic part of the Pacific Ocean with a duration of at least 5 months, expressed in the deviation of the water temperature by 0.5 ° C to a large (el-nino) or a smaller (La Nina) side.
The first signs of El Niño:
Increased air pressure over the Indian Ocean, Indonesia and Australia.
Falling pressure over Tahiti, over the central and eastern parts of the Pacific.
The weakening of the Passops in the southern part of the Pacific Ocean until they stop and change the direction of the wind to the West.
Warm air mass in Peru, rains in Peruvian deserts.
In itself, an increase in water temperature off the coast of Peru 0.5 ° C is considered only the condition for the emergence of El Niño. Usually such an anomaly can exist within a few weeks, and then disappear safely. And only a five-month anomaly, classifier as an EL Niño phenomenon, can cause significant damage to the region's economy due to the fall of fish catches.
To describe El Niño, the southern oscillation index is also used (Southern Oscillant Index, SOI). It is calculated as the pressure difference over Tahiti and above Darwin (Australia). The negative values \u200b\u200bof the index indicate the El Niño phase, and positive about La Niña.
EL-Niño influence on climate of different regions
In South America, El Niño effect is most pronounced. Usually this phenomenon causes warm and very wet summer periods (from December to February) on the northern coast of Peru and in Ecuador. If El Niño is strong, it causes strong floods. Such, for example, happened in January 2011. South Brazil and Northern Argentina are also experiencing more wet than usual periods, but, mainly in spring and early summer. In the center of Chile, there is a soft winter with plenty of rains, and in Peru and Bolivia sometimes occur unusual winter snowfall for this region. The dry and warm weather is observed in the Amazon River basin, in Colombia and Central America. In Indonesia, humidity decreases, increasing the likelihood of forest fires. This also applies to the Philippines and Northern Australia. From June to August, dry weather is observed in Queensland, Victoria, New South Wales and East Tasmania. In Antarctic, the West of the Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Land, Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas are covered with plenty of snow and ice. At the same time grows pressure and become warmer. In North America, as a rule, winter becomes warmer in the Midwest and in Canada. In Central and Southern California, in the north-west of Mexico and Southeast, the United States becomes wetter, and in the North-Western Pacific States of the United States - land. During La Niña, on the contrary, land becomes in the Midwest. El Niño also leads to a decrease in the activity of Atlantic hurricanes. East Africa, including Kenya, Tanzania and the pool of the White Nile, are experiencing long season rains from March to May. Drought pursue from December to February Southern and central regions of Africa, mainly Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Botswana.
The effect similar to El Niño is sometimes observed in the Atlantic Ocean, where water along the equatorial coast of Africa becomes warmer, and the coast of Brazil is colder. Moreover, the connection of this circulation with El Niño is traced.
EL-Niño influence on health and society
El Niño raises extreme weather conditions related to the cycles of the frequency of epidemic diseases. El Niño is associated with an increased risk of developing diseases transmitted by mosquitoes: malaria, dengue fever and rift valley fever. Malaria's occurrence cycles are associated with El Niño in India, Venezuela and Colombia. There is a connection with the outbreaks of the Australian Encephalitis (Encephalitis Valley of Murray - MVE), manifested in the south-east of Australia after heavy rains and floods caused by La Niña. A striking example is a heavy outbreak of rift valley fever that occurred due to El Niño after extreme precipitation in the northeastern part of Kenya and the southern part of Somalia in 1997-98.
It is also believed that El Niño may be associated with the cyclicality of wars and the emergence of civil conflicts in countries whose climate depends on El Niño. Studying data from 1950 to 2004 showed that El Niño is associated with 21% of all civil conflicts of this period. At the same time, the risk of civil war during the years of El Niño is two times higher than during the years of La Niña. Probably the relationship between climate and military actions is mediated by indigestive, which often come on hot years.
The climatic phenomenon of La Niña, associated with a decrease in the water temperature in the Equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean and affecting weather conditions almost all of the globe, disappeared and, most likely, will not return until the end of 2012, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports.
La Nina's phenomenon (La Nina, "Girl" Translated from Spanish) is characterized by an anomalous decrease in the surface temperature of the water in the central and eastern part of the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean. This process is reverse to El Nino, "Boy"), which is connected, on the contrary, with warming in the same zone. These states replace each other with a frequency of about a year.
After the period of the neutral position of the El Niño-La Niña cycle, observed in mid-2011, the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean in August began to cool, and from October so far there was a phenomenon of La Niña weak and moderate power. By the beginning of April, La Niña completely disappeared, and to date, neutral conditions are observed in the Equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, experts write.
"(Analysis of modeling results) assumes that La Niña this year is likely to return, whereas the probabilities of preserving a neutral situation and the emergence of El Niño in the second half of the year are approximately equal," the WMO reports.
And El Niño, and La Niña affect the circulation schemes of ocean and atmospheric currents, which in turn affects the weather and climate over the entire globe, provoking droughts in some regions, hurricanes and strong rains - in others.
The climate phenomenon of La Niña, who took place in 2011, was so strong that in the end led to the fall of the world's level for as many as 5 mm. With the arrival of La Nigna, a shift occurred in the values \u200b\u200bof the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean and changed precipitation models around the world, as the earth moisture began to leave the ocean and go to the land in the form of rains in Australia, in the north of South America, in Southeast Asia .
The alternate domination of the warm ocean phase in the phenomenon of southern oscillation, El Niño, the cold phase, La Niña, is able to change the world's ocean so much, but satellite data is inexorably indicate that somewhere since the 1990s global levels Water still rises to a height of about 3 mm.
As soon as el Niño comes, the growth of water level begins to occur faster, but with a change of phases for almost every five years a diametrically opposite phenomenon is observed. The strength of the effect of a phase depends on other factors and brightly reflects the general climate change towards its fierce. The study of both phases of southern oscillation is engaged in many scientists around the world, as they contain many keys to what happens on earth and what it expects it.
The atmospheric phenomenon of La Niña intensity from moderate to strong will last in the tropical part of the Pacific Ocean until April 2011. This is stated in the information bulletin about El Niño / La Niña released on Monday by the World Meteorological Organization.
As emphasized in the document, all the forecasts based on models predict the continuation or possible strengthening of the La Niña phenomenon over the next 4-6 months, ITAR-TASS reports.
For La Niña, which this year was formed in June-July, having come to replace the El Niño phenomenon in April, the unusually low water temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial parts of the Pacific Ocean are characterized. This violates the normal regimes of tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation. El Niño is a direct opposite phenomenon, which is characterized by unusually high water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
The effects of these phenomena can be felt in many parts of the planet, expressing in the floods, storms, droughts, raises, or, on the contrary, decreases of temperatures. Usually, La Niña cites in winter to strong rains in the eastern equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, Indonesia, in the Philippines and to strong droughts in Ecuador, in the north-west Peru and in the eastern part of Equatorial Africa.
In addition, the phenomenon contributes to a decrease in the world temperature, and this is most noticeable from December to February in the northeast of Africa, in Japan, in the south of Alaska, in the central and western parts of Canada, in the south-east of Brazil.
The World Meteorological Organization / WMO / Today in Geneva stated that in August of this year, a climatic phenomenon of La Niña, which can increase in the intensity and continue until the end of the current or beginning of the current year, was recently noted in the Equator's area in the Pacific Ocean.
In the last report of WMO about El Niño and La Niña phenomena, it is said that the current phenomenon of La Nigni will reach the peak at the end of this year, but the intensity will be less than that was in the second half of 2010. In connection with its uncertainty, WMO offers the countries of the Pacific Basin carefully to closely monitor its development and promptly report on possible drought and floods due to it.
The Phenomenon of La Niña implies the phenomenon of anomalous long-term large-scale cooling of water in the eastern and central parts of the Pacific Ocean in the area of \u200b\u200bthe equator, which generates a global climatic anomaly. The previous phenomenon of La Nigni led to the spring drought on the western coast of the Pacific Ocean, including China.
Must retreat. He is in a replacement in a rush diametrically opposite phenomenon - La Niña. And if the first phenomenon from Spanish can be translated as a "child" or "boy", then La Niña means "girl". Scientists hope that the phenomenon will help slightly balance the climate in both hemispheres, lowering the average annual temperature, which is now rapidly flies up.
What is El Niño and La Nina
El Niño and La Niña is warm and cold flows or the opposite extreme values \u200b\u200bof water and atmospheric pressure characteristic of the Equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean, which will last about six months.
Phenomenon El Niñoit lies in a sharp increase in temperature (by 5-9 degrees) of the surface layer of water in the east of the Pacific Ocean on the area of \u200b\u200babout 10 million square meters. km.
La Ninia- The opposite of El Niño is manifested as a decrease in the surface temperature of the water below the climatic norm in the east of the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean.
Together they are the so-called southern oscillation.
How is El Niño formed? Near the Pacific Coast of South America, there is a cold Peruvian current, which arises due to the Passat. Approximately once every 5-10 years, the trade winds weaken for 1-6 months. As a result, the cold current ceases its "work", and warm waters are shifted to the shores of South America. This is the phenomenon and call El Niño. EL-Niño's energy is able to lead to indignations the entire atmosphere of the Earth, provokes environmental disasters, a phenomenon is involved in numerous weather anomalies in the tropics, which often lead to material losses and even to human victims.
What will bring La Nina's planet
As well as El Niño, La Niña appears with a certain cyclicality from 2 to 7 years and lasts from 9 months to a year. Residents of the northern hemisphere phenomenon threatens with a decrease in the winter temperature by 1-2 degrees, which in the current conditions is not so bad. If we consider that the earth moved, and now spring comes 10 years earlier than 40 years ago.
It should also be noted that El Niño and La Ninia must not necessarily replace each other - often between them there are several "neutral" years.
But you should not wait for La Niña quickly. Judging by the observations, this year will be under the authority of El Niño, as evidenced by the monthly as a planetary and local scale. "Girl" will begin to give his fruits no earlier than 2017.
At all times, the yellow press raised its ratings at the expense of various news that have a mystical, catastrophic, provocative or exposing. However, in recent times, more and more people begin to frighten by various natural cataclysms, ends of the world, etc. In this article we will talk about one natural phenomenon, which sometimes borders with mysticism - the warm current of El Niño. What is it? Such a question often ask people on various Internet forums. Let's try to answer it.
Natural Phenomenon El Niño
In 1997-1998 On our planet, one of the most large-scale observation history of a natural disaster associated with this phenomenon was played. This mysterious phenomenon made a lot of noise and attracted the close attention of the world's media, and his name is for the phenomenon, the encyclopedia will tell. If we are expressed by the scientific language, then El Niño is a set of changes in the chemical and thermobaric parameters of the atmosphere and the ocean that takes the nature of the natural disaster. As you can see, a very difficult definition for perception, so let's try to consider it with the eyes of an ordinary person. In the reference book, the EL Niño phenomenon is only a warm flow that sometimes arises from the coast of Peru, Ecuador and Chile. The nature of this flow scientists cannot explain. The name of the phenomenon itself occurred from Spanish and means "baby". El Niño got its name due to what it appears only at the end of December and coincides with Catholic Christmas.
Normal situation
In order to understand the entire abnormal nature of this phenomenon, to begin with, consider the usual climatic situation in this region of the planet. Everyone knows that soft weather in Western Europe determines the warm flow of Gulf Stream, in the quiet ocean of the southern hemisphere, the tone sets the cold Antarctic atlantic winds here - trade winds that blow on the Western South American coast, crossing alpine Andes, leave all moisture on the eastern slopes. As a result, the western part of the mainland is a rocky desert, where the rains are extremely rare. However, when the trade winds are gaining so much moisture that they can transfer it through the Andes, they form a powerful surface current here, which causes the hill of water off the coast. The attention of specialists attracted the colossal biological activity of this region. Here, on a relatively small space, the annual mining of fish exceeds 20% global. This also leads to an increase in fishing birds in the region. And in the places of their cluster, the colossal mass of guano (litter) - valuable fertilizer focuses. In some places, the thickness of its layers reaches 100 meters. These deposits have become an object of industrial mining and exports.
Catastrophe
And now consider what is happening when the warm current of El Niño appears. In this case, the situation changes dramatically. An increase in temperature leads to mass death or fish care and, as a result, birds. Next, there is a drop in atmospheric pressure in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, clouds appear, the trade winds poke, and the winds change their direction to the opposite. As a result, the water flows are collapsed on the Western slopes of the Andes, floods, floods, and sat down here. And on the opposite part of the Pacific Ocean - in Indonesia, Australia, New Guinea - a terrible drought begins, which leads to forest fires and the destruction of agricultural plantations. However, this phenomenon of El Niño is not limited to: "Red grains" begin to California, which are caused by the growth of microscopic algae to California. It would seem that everything is clear, however, the nature of the phenomenon is not completely clear. Thus, the appearance of warm water oceanographers are considered to be a consequence of the change of winds, and meteorologists change the winds explain the heating of water. Is this a vicious circle? However, let's consider some circumstances that have missed climatologists.
Degasal Scenario El Niño
What kind of phenomenon is helped to understand geologists. For simplicity of perception, let's try to move away from specific scientific terms and tell everything with a public language. It turns out that El Niño is formed in the ocean over one of the most active geological sections of the rift system (the gap of the earth's crust). From the bowels of the planet, hydrogen is actively highlighted, which, reaching the surface, forms a reaction with oxygen. As a result, heat occurs, which heats the water. In addition, it leads to the occurrence of the region, which also contributes to a more intense ocean heating with solar radiation. Most likely, the role of the Sun is determining in this process. All this leads to an increase in evaporation, a decrease in pressure, as a result of which cyclone is formed.
Biological productivity
Why is such high biological activity in this region? According to scientists' estimates, it corresponds to plentiful "fertilizable" ponds in Asia and more than 50 times higher than those in other parts of the Pacific. Traditionally, it is customary to explain to the wind waters of warm water from the shore - an upwelling. As a result of this process, cold water enriched with nutritional components (nitrogen and phosphorus) rises from depths. And when El Niño appears, the Apuveling is interrupted, as a result of which birds and fish are dying or migrate. It would seem that everything is clear and logical. However, and here scientists do not agree much. For example, the mechanism of water lifting from the depths of the ocean slightly scientists produce temperatures at various depths oriented perpendicular to the shore. Then build graphs (isotherms), comparing the level of coastal and deep water, and this makes the above conclusions. However, the temperature measure in coastal waters is incorrect, because it is known that their coldness is determined by the Peruvian current. Yes, and the process of building the isotherm across the coastline is incorrect, because the prevailing winds blow along her.
But the geological version easily fits into this scheme. It has long been known that in the thickness of the water of this region a very low oxygen content (the reason is the geological gap) - lower than anywhere in the planet. And the upper layers (30 m), on the contrary, abnormally rich in them because of the Peruvian current. This is the layer (over rift zones) and the unique conditions for the development of life are created. When El Niño flow appears, degassing is enhanced in the region, and the thin surface layer is saturated with methane and hydrogen. This leads to the death of living beings, and not at all the lack of a feed base.
Red grains
However, with the onset of ecological catastrophe, life does not freeze here. In the water begin to actively multiply the unicellular algae - dinoflates. Their red color is protected from solar ultraviolet (we have already mentioned that an ozone hole is formed over the region). So, thanks to the abundance of microscopic algae, many marine organisms performing the role of ocean filters (oysters, etc.) become poisonous, and the use of them in food leads to severe poisoning.
The model is confirmed
Consider an interesting fact confirming the reality of the degassing version. The American researcher D. Walker carried out work on the analysis of the sections of this underwater ridge, as a result of which he concluded that during the appearance of El Niño, seismic activity sharply increased. But it has long been known that it is often accompanied by the strengthening of the degassing of the subsoil. So, most likely, scientists simply confused the cause and consequence. It turns out that the altered direction of the flow of El Niño is a consequence, and not the reason for subsequent events. In favor of this model, it also testifies that during these years water is literally boiled from gases.
La Ninia
This is called the final phase of El Niño, as a result of which there is a sharp cooling of water. The natural explanation of this phenomenon is the destruction of the ozone layer over Antarctic and the equator, which causes and leads to the influx of cold water in the Peruvian current, which the El Niño is winding.
The root cause in space
The media accuse El Niño in the floods in South Korea, unprecedented frosts in Europe, droughts and fires in Indonesia, the destruction of the ozone layer, etc. However, if we recall the fact that the course mentioned is just a consequence of geological processes occurring in Earth's depths, then you should think about the root cause. And it hides in the exposure to the core of the planet Moon, the Sun, the planets of our system, as well as other celestial bodies. So scold El Niño is useless ...
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