By 0.86 degrees In the 21st century, according to forecasts, the temperature increase may reach 6.5 degrees - this is a pessimistic scenario. According to optimistic estimates, it will be 1-3 degrees. At first glance, an increase in the average temperature of the atmosphere does not greatly affect human life and is not very noticeable to him, and this is true. Living in middle lane, it's hard to feel. However, the closer to the poles, the more obvious the influence and harm global warming.
Nowadays average temperature on Earth it is about 15 degrees. During the Ice Age it was about 11 degrees. According to scientists, humanity will feel the global warming problem when the average atmospheric temperature exceeds 17 degrees Celsius.
Causes of global warming
Around the world, experts identify many reasons that cause global warming. In essence, they can be generalized to anthropogenic, that is, caused by man, and natural.
Greenhouse effect
The main reason that leads to an increase in the average temperature of the planet can be called industrialization. An increase in production intensity, the number of factories, cars, and the planet's population affects the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere. These are methane, water vapor, nitrogen oxide, carbon dioxide and others. As a result of their accumulation, the density increases lower layers atmosphere. Greenhouse gases pass through solar energy, which heats the Earth, but the heat that the Earth itself gives off is retained by these gases and not released into space. This process is called the greenhouse effect. It was first discovered and described in the first half of the 19th century.
The greenhouse effect is considered the main cause of global warming, since greenhouse gases are released in one form or another by almost any production. Most emissions come from carbon dioxide, which is released as a result of the combustion of petroleum products, coal, and natural gas. Vehicles emit exhaust fumes. Large amounts of emissions are released into the atmosphere from conventional waste incineration.
Another factor increasing the greenhouse effect is deforestation and Forest fires. All this reduces the number of plants that produce oxygen, which reduces the density of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Greenhouse gases are not only emitted industrial enterprises, but also agricultural. For example, cattle farms. Conventional barns are sources of another greenhouse gas - methane. This is due to the fact that ruminant cattle consume a huge amount of plants per day and, when digesting it, produce gases. This is called "ruminant flatulence." Methane accounts for less than 25% of greenhouse gases, however, than carbon dioxide.
Another anthropogenic factor in the increase in the average temperature of the Earth is a large number of small particles of dust and soot. Being in the atmosphere, they absorb solar energy, heating the air and preventing the warming of the planet's surface. If they fall out, they transfer the accumulated temperature to the earth. For example, this effect has a negative impact on the snow of Antarctica. Warm particles of dust and soot when they fall heat the snow and cause it to melt.
Natural causes
Some scientists suggest that global warming is also influenced by factors to which humans have nothing to do. So, along with the greenhouse effect, solar activity is called the cause. However, this theory is subject to numerous criticisms. In particular, a number of experts argue that solar activity over the past 2000 years has been stable and therefore the reason for the change in average temperature lies in something else. In addition, even if solar activity did heat the Earth's atmosphere, this would affect all layers, not just the bottom.
Another natural cause is volcanic activity. As a result of eruptions, lava flows are released, which, in contact with water, contribute to the release large quantity water vapor. In addition, it enters the atmosphere volcanic ash, particles of which can absorb solar energy and trap it in the air.
Consequences of global warming
The harm caused by global warming can already be traced. Over the past hundred years, the level of the world's oceans has risen by 20 centimeters due to melting arctic ice. Over the past 50 years, their number has decreased by 13%. Behind last year There are several large icebergs from the main ice mass. Also due to global warming abnormal heat in the summer it is now 100 times more exciting large area than 40 years ago. In the 80s, extremely hot summers occurred on 0.1% of the Earth's surface - now it is 10%.
Dangers of global warming
If no measures are taken to combat global warming, the consequences will become much more noticeable in the foreseeable future. According to ecologists, if the average temperature of the Earth continues to rise and exceeds 17-18 degrees Celsius, this will lead to the melting of glaciers (according to some sources, this is in the year 2100), as a result, the sea level will rise, which will lead to floods and other climate disasters. Thus, according to some forecasts, almost half of all land will fall into the flood zone. Changing water levels and ocean acidity will change the flora and reduce the number of animal species.
The most significant danger of global warming is the lack of fresh water and the associated changes in people’s lifestyles, savings, all kinds of crises, modifications in the consumption structure.
Another consequence of such warming could be a serious crisis in agriculture. Due to climate change within continents, it will no longer be possible to carry out the usual types of agricultural industry in one territory or another. Adapting the industry to new conditions will require a long time and a huge amount of resources. According to experts, due to global warming in Africa, food problems may begin as early as 2030.
Warming Island
A clear example of warming is the island of the same name in Greenland. Until 2005, it was considered a peninsula, but it turned out that it was connected to the mainland by ice. Having melted, it turned out that instead of a connection there was a strait. The island was renamed "Warming Island".
Fighting global warming
The main direction of the fight against global warming is the attempt to limit the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Thus, the largest environmental organizations, for example, Greenpeace or WWF, advocate abandoning investments in fossil fuels. Also, various types of actions are carried out in almost every country, but given the scale of the problem, the main mechanisms to combat it are international in nature.
Thus, within the framework of the UN Framework Convention in 1997, the Kyoto Agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions was concluded. It was signed by 192 countries around the world. Some have committed to reducing emissions by a specific percentage. For example, by 8% in the EU countries. Russia and Ukraine pledged to keep emissions in the 2000s at 1990s levels.
In 2015, a successor to the Kyoto Agreement was concluded in France. Paris Agreement", it was ratified by 96 countries. The agreement also commits countries to take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit the rate of increase in the planet's average temperature to 2 degrees Celsius compared with pre-industrialization eras. The agreement commits countries to moving towards a green, carbon-free economy by 2020, reducing emissions and committing money to climate fund. Russia signed the agreement, but did not ratify it. The US withdrew from it.
Article about global warming. What is happening in the world now on a global scale, what consequences may be due to global warming. At times it is worth looking at what WE have brought the world to.
What is global warming?
Global warming is a slow and gradual increase in the average temperature on our planet, which is currently being observed. Global warming is a fact, it is pointless to argue with it, and that is why it is necessary to approach it soberly and objectively.
Causes of global warming
According to scientific data, global warming can be caused by many factors:
Volcanic eruptions;
Behavior of the World Ocean (typhoons, hurricanes, etc.);
Solar Activity;
Earth's magnetic field;
Human activity. So-called anthropogenic factor. The idea is supported by the majority of scientists, public organizations and the media, which does not at all mean its unshakable truth.
Most likely, it will turn out that each of these components contributes to global warming.
What is the greenhouse effect?
The greenhouse effect has been observed by any of us. In greenhouses the temperature is always higher than outside; The same thing happens in a closed car on a sunny day. On a scale Globe all the same. Part solar heat, received by the Earth's surface, cannot evaporate back into space, since the atmosphere acts like polyethylene in a greenhouse. Without the greenhouse effect, the average temperature of the Earth's surface should be about -18°C, but in reality it is about +14°C. How much heat remains on the planet directly depends on the composition of the air, which changes under the influence of the factors described above (What causes global warming?); namely, the content of greenhouse gases changes, which include water vapor (responsible for more than 60% of the effect), carbon dioxide (carbon dioxide), methane (causes the most warming) and a number of others.
Coal-fired power plants, car exhaust, factory chimneys and other human-made pollution sources together emit about 22 billion tons into the atmosphere. carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases per year. Livestock farming, fertilizer use, coal combustion and other sources produce about 250 million tons of methane per year. About half of all greenhouse gases emitted by humanity remain in the atmosphere. About three-quarters of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions over the past 20 years have been caused by the use of oil, natural gas and coal. Most of the rest is caused by changes in the landscape, primarily deforestation.
What facts prove global warming?
Rising temperatures
Temperatures have been documented for about 150 years. It is generally accepted that it has risen by about 0.6°C over the past century, although there is still no clear methodology for determining this parameter, and there is also no confidence in the adequacy of data from a century ago. They say that warming has been sharp since 1976, the beginning of rapid industrial human activity and reached its maximum acceleration in the second half of the 90s. But even here there are discrepancies between ground-based and satellite observations.
Rising sea levels
As a result of warming and melting of glaciers in the Arctic, Antarctica and Greenland, the water level on the planet has risen by 10-20 cm, possibly more.
Melting glaciers
Well, what can I say, global warming really is the cause of the melting of glaciers, and photographs will confirm this better than words.
The Uppsala Glacier in Patagonia (Argentina) was one of the largest glaciers in South America, but is now disappearing at a rate of 200 meters per year.
The Rown Glacier, Valais, Switzerland has risen 450 meters.
Portage Glacier in Alaska.
1875 photo courtesy H. Slupetzky/University of Salzburg Pasterze.
The relationship between global warming and world disasters
Methods for predicting global warming
Global warming and its development are predicted mainly using computer models, based on collected data on temperature, carbon dioxide concentrations and much more. Of course, the accuracy of such forecasts leaves much to be desired and, as a rule, does not exceed 50%, and the further scientists aim, the less likely the prediction will come true.
Ultra-deep drilling of glaciers is also used to obtain data; sometimes samples are taken from depths of up to 3000 meters. This ancient ice stores temperature information, solar activity, the intensity of the Earth's magnetic field at that time. The information is used for comparison with current indicators.
What measures are being taken to stop global warming?
A broad consensus among climate scientists that global temperatures will continue to rise has led to a number of governments, corporations and individuals attempting to prevent or adapt to global warming. Many environmental organizations advocate for action against climate change, mainly by consumers, but also at municipal, regional and government levels. Some also advocate limiting global fossil fuel production, citing the direct link between fuel combustion and CO2 emissions.
Today, the main global agreement to combat global warming is the Kyoto Protocol (agreed in 1997, entered into force in 2005), an addition to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The protocol includes more than 160 countries and covers about 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
European Union should reduce emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases by 8%, the USA - by 7%, Japan - by 6%. Thus, it is assumed that the main goal - reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 5% over the next 15 years - will be achieved. But this will not stop global warming, but will only slow down its growth slightly. And this is in best case scenario. So, we can conclude that serious measures to prevent global warming are not being considered or taken.
Global Warming Figures and Facts
One of the most visible processes associated with global warming is the melting of glaciers.
Over the past half century, temperatures in southwest Antarctica, on the Antarctic Peninsula, have increased by 2.5°C. In 2002, an iceberg with an area of over 2,500 km broke off from the Larsen Ice Shelf with an area of 3,250 km and a thickness of over 200 meters, located on the Antarctic Peninsula, which actually means the destruction of the glacier. The entire destruction process took only 35 days. Before this, the glacier remained stable for 10 thousand years, since the end of the last ice age. Over thousands of years, the thickness of the glacier decreased gradually, but in the second half of the 20th century, the rate of its melting increased significantly. The melting of the glacier led to the release of a large number of icebergs (over a thousand) into the Weddell Sea.
Other glaciers are also being destroyed. Thus, in the summer of 2007, an iceberg 200 km long and 30 km wide broke off from the Ross Ice Shelf; a little earlier, in the spring of 2007, an ice field 270 km long and 40 km wide broke away from the Antarctic continent. The accumulation of icebergs prevents the release of cold waters from the Ross Sea, which leads to a disruption in the ecological balance (one of the consequences, for example, is the death of penguins, who were unable to reach their usual food sources due to the fact that the ice in the Ross Sea lasted longer than usual).
Acceleration of the degradation process was noted permafrost.
Since the early 1970s, the temperature of permafrost soils in Western Siberia increased by 1.0°C, in central Yakutia - by 1-1.5°C. In northern Alaska, temperatures in the upper permafrost layer have increased by 3°C since the mid-1980s.
What impact will global warming have on the world around us?
Will greatly affect the lives of some animals. For example, polar bears, seals and penguins will be forced to change their habitats, as the current ones will simply melt away. Many species of animals and plants may simply disappear without having time to adapt to a rapidly changing environment. Will change the weather on a global scale. An increase in the number of climate disasters is expected; longer periods of extremely hot weather; there will be more rain, but the likelihood of drought will increase in many regions; increased flooding due to hurricanes and rising sea levels. But it all depends on the specific region.
The report of the working group of the Intergovernmental Commission on Climate Change (Shanghai, 2001) presents seven models of climate change in the 21st century. The main conclusions made in the report are the continuation of global warming, accompanied by an increase in greenhouse gas emissions (although, according to some scenarios, by the end of the century, as a result of bans on industrial emissions, a decline in greenhouse gas emissions is possible); increase in surface air temperature (to end of XXI century, an increase in surface temperature of 6°C is possible); rising sea levels (on average by 0.5 m per century).
The most likely changes in weather factors include increased precipitation; higher maximum temperatures, an increase in the number of hot days and a decrease in the number of frosty days in almost all regions of the Earth; at the same time, heat waves will become more frequent in most continental areas; reduction of temperature spread.
As a consequence of these changes, we can expect stronger winds and an increase in intensity tropical cyclones(a general tendency towards intensification was noted back in the 20th century), an increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation, a noticeable expansion of drought areas.
The Intergovernmental Commission has identified a number of areas that are most vulnerable to expected climate change. This is the Sahara region, the Arctic, mega-deltas of Asia, small islands.
Negative changes in Europe include increased temperatures and increased droughts in the south (resulting in a decrease water resources and a decrease in hydroelectric power generation, a decrease in production Agriculture, worsening tourism conditions), reduction snow cover and retreat of mountain glaciers, increasing the risk of severe floods and catastrophic river floods; increased summer precipitation in Central and Eastern Europe, increased frequency of forest fires, fires on peatlands, reduced forest productivity; increasing soil instability in Northern Europe. In the Arctic - a catastrophic decrease in the area of glaciation, a reduction in the area sea ice, increased coastal erosion.
Some researchers (for example, P. Schwartz and D. Randell) offer a pessimistic forecast, according to which already in the first quarter of the 21st century a sharp jump in climate in an unforeseen direction is possible, and the consequence could be the onset of a new ice age lasting hundreds of years.
How will global warming affect humans?
Scared by shortage drinking water, increasing number infectious diseases, problems in agriculture due to droughts. But in the long term, nothing awaits other than human evolution. Our ancestors faced a more serious problem when temperatures rose sharply by 10°C after the end of the Ice Age, but this is what led to the creation of our civilization. Otherwise they would probably still be hunting mammoths with spears.
Of course, this is not a reason to pollute the atmosphere with anything, because in the short term we will have bad times. Global warming is an issue where the call must be followed common sense, logic, do not fall for cheap stories and do not follow the lead of the majority, because history knows many examples when the majority was very deeply mistaken and did a lot of trouble, even to the point of burning great minds, which, in the end, turned out to be right.
Global warming is modern theory relativity, the law of universal gravitation, the fact of the Earth’s rotation around the Sun, the sphericity of our planet during their presentation to the public, when opinions were also divided. Someone is definitely right. But who?
P.S.
Additionally on the topic “Global Warming”.
Greenhouse gas emissions by top oil-burning countries, 2000.
Forecasting the growth of arid areas caused by global warming. The simulation was performed on a supercomputer at the Institute space research them. Goddard (NASA, GISS, USA).
Consequences of global warming.
According to expert assessment NOAA, the planet's average global temperature in 2011 was not among the top 10 warmest. January 2012 also did not show loyalty to global warming and became only 19th in the ranking series.
The planet's average global temperature in January 2012 was only the 19th hottest since 1880, the US National Weather Service reports. – Land temperature ranked 26th in the reporting period. The ocean temperature became the 17th warmest and the lowest since 2008,” American meteorologists say.
These facts don’t say anything yet, but they certainly make you think. Perhaps, indeed, not everything is so smooth in the theory of global warming promoted by International group climate change experts?
Let us recall that on October 12, 2007, Albert Gore was awarded Nobel Prize peace for working to protect environment and research on climate change. In addition, his film “An Inconvenient Truth” about the human impact on the climate received 2 Oscars.
However, even then the opinions of experts were ambiguous. Thus, hurricane expert William Gray described the theory for which Gore received the prize as ridiculous. “We are fooling our children. We feed them movies (An Inconvenient Truth). This is ridiculous."
With his speeches on climate protection, Gore traveled to several dozen cities around the world. According to information leaked to the press, his fee for an hour-long lecture on environmental conservation reaches up to $100,000.
In 2009, a number of members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, on which Gore works, found themselves at the center of a scandal after facts were revealed that distorted and falsified data that contradicted the theory of global warming.
The problem of global warming, which has tormented the minds of scientists and politicians in recent years, has become perhaps the most popular among environmental problems. Scary forecasts about the irreversibility of the climate change process and its horrific consequences force the entire world community not only to discuss this topic at any opportunity, but also to allocate huge amounts of money to fight humanity’s number one enemy. But you can’t fool the Russians! Russian hackers did not take Western scientific luminaries at their word, and they hacked the servers of the University of East Anglia, which deals with climate change issues. It turned out that the horror story of the 21st century is more like a myth.
Hackers of all Rus'
Having opened terrible secret British scientists, hackers, as honest people, decided to tell the whole world about it in confidence - three thousand documents and electronic correspondence were posted on the Internet for everyone to see.
According to correspondence between British scientists and employees of NASA and US scientific universities, for at least the last few years, the problem of global warming, which is so carefully exaggerated, has been a complete hoax.
Particularly interesting is also a letter from Professor Phil Jones, who heads the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, which has become public. It is dated 1999. The message states that the professor "just did one of Mike's tricks, increasing the temperature for every period for the last 20 years (since 1981) to hide the fact that it is falling."
In addition, in the correspondence, climate researchers discussed what kind of work they should publish in scientific journals to keep the myth of climate change afloat. At the same time, they put pressure on scientific publications not to publish research by other scientists whose results they did not agree with. The British University has already confirmed the fact of the information leak. And the link to the server where the scientists’ letters were posted is blocked.
The trophy obtained by Russian hackers on the battlefield for truthful information most likely did not come as a shock to the public. There has been talk for a long time that global warming is more of a global hoax.
Deception on a planetary scale
What is global warming and where does it come from? No one can answer this question with 100% certainty. But, having noticed something wrong in the behavior of the earth’s temperatures, scientists and UN experts consulted and accepted by consensus that the process of increasing the average annual temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere and the World Ocean is the work of man. The same version was supported by the academies of sciences of the G8 countries.
According to the theory of Western scientific luminaries, the average temperature on the planet has risen by 0.7 degrees Celsius since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and continues to rise steadily. All these anomalous phenomena caused primarily by emissions of gases that cause Greenhouse effect such as carbon dioxide and methane. If humanity continues in the same spirit, we will inevitably be hit by devastating natural disasters, floods, droughts, hurricanes. All this is reminiscent of the scenarios that have become especially popular in Lately Hollywood disaster films. But for some reason it seems that all these scientific experiments and research are props for a big performance that is being played out in front of humanity.
More than nine years ago, back in 2000, Russian geographer Professor Andrei Kapitsa said that global warming does not exist. On the contrary, there has been a slow cooling for more than 30 years.
The professor called another myth the influence of man and his activities on climate change. The climate on our planet is changing regardless of our desire or unwillingness. Moreover, carbon dioxide emissions, which are considered the main cause of the “greenhouse effect,” are precisely a consequence of natural warming, which has now been replaced by an equally natural cycle of “cooling” the planet.
This happens approximately according to this scheme: the climate changes cyclically from ice ages to warming, but at the same time, when the World Ocean - the main repository of carbon dioxide - warms up even by half a degree, a powerful release of this substance into the atmosphere occurs. When the temperature changes towards minus, the concentration of carbon dioxide begins to decrease. In addition, its content is also affected by volcanic activity and forest fires. But not human industrial activity.
Scientists obtained all this evidence of the falsity of the theory of global warming using simple, but very effective, according to them, experiments. Researchers began drilling wells in centuries-old ice Antarctica and Greenland. The depth of these wells goes back several thousand years, or rather many hundreds of meters. Columns of ice deposits extracted from wells are being examined - cores containing air from those eras when snow fell. In this way, scientists obtain a kind of sample of the atmosphere of past centuries. The study of these samples allows you to find out all the characteristics weather conditions previous years.
It is noteworthy that at the Madrid Conference held in 1995, where the UN officially recognized humanity’s responsibility for global warming, the research results and scientific works of opponents of this theory did not appear. Moreover, whole line documents confirming the inconsistency of this hypothesis, which were provided by the UN, disappeared without a trace.
Rescue in a greenhouse
Not only does the theory of the greenhouse effect have more and more opponents every year, causing all kinds of inconvenience to the classics of the apocalyptic scenario, now some scientists are ready to fully accept this theory, but with a small reservation. It turns out that warming is man's friend.
Some American and British researchers independently came to the conclusion that soon, in a couple of tens of thousands of years, the kingdom of ice will come to Earth. Scientists made this conclusion based on the same studies of centuries-old ice.
University of Edinburgh professor Thomas Crowley argues that about a million years ago, cycles of Earth's temperature fluctuations "suddenly became much longer, up to 100 thousand years, and climate fluctuations became stronger and sharper. And this amplitude continues to increase: it is not for nothing that the two most severe ice ages in history Earth falls within the last 200 thousand years. Our calculations show that the period of warm climate on Earth is coming to an end."
At the same time, the scientist notes that it is the greenhouse effect that saves humanity from cold death. However, according to the professor, no matter how hard humanity tries to prolong global warming on its own, glacial period"will come soon enough," and we have "ten to one hundred thousand years to spare."
Kyoto adventure
To combat global warming, the Kyoto Protocol was developed and adopted in 1997. The agreement obliges the states that have ratified it, and there are 181 of them in total, to reduce or at least not increase greenhouse gas emissions in 2008-2012 compared to 1990. It is worth noting that the countries assumed different obligations in accordance with the protocol. Thus, by 2012, the European Union must reduce emissions by eight percent, Japan and Canada by six percent, Russia and Ukraine must maintain average annual emissions of 1990. At the same time, developing countries, including China and India, did not undertake any obligations.
The only exception from the list of carbon dioxide fighters that ratified the Kyoto Protocol was the United States. This is worth thinking about. Nowadays, fabulous amounts of money are being allocated to hold numerous conferences, summits, meetings on climate change issues, as well as to finance the most sophisticated research and experiments. At the same time, no one can give guarantees that all efforts will not be in vain, as well as prove 100 percent that warming is due to greenhouse emissions.
In this case, a completely logical question arises - who needs all this? In recent years, in the rebellious environment of the post-Soviet space, particularly in Russia, assumptions have begun to arise that forcing states around the world to allocate huge amounts of money to control emissions is the idea of Western European powers.
According to this assumption, as a result of warming and, accordingly, rising sea levels, the industrial centers of Europe will be flooded. It is known that warm climate, and at the same time the usual economic and social structure, Europe owes to the Gulf Stream. It is predicted that global warming will not leave existing ocean currents unchanged. Such surprises of nature can be a serious blow to Western European civilization.
Another reason, in addition to global apocalyptic experiences, forcing Europeans to advocate for universal implementation of the Kyoto Protocol is the acute and constant shortage of energy resources. This is pushing European industry to invent expensive energy-saving technologies. It will be a joy for Europe if the whole world is obliged to use such inventions. And if you consider that developing countries are simply unable to create their own technologies, Europeans will still be able to make money.
What is important, following all the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol, states will be forced to spend enormous amounts of money on modernizing the environmental component of their industry. This cannot but affect the slowdown in economic growth.
Here it’s worth stopping for a minute and imagining the “dramatic” nature of the situation with global warming. A rise in the level of the World Ocean by tens of meters - the most threatening of the consequences of warming - will occur in the most pessimistic scenario no earlier than in 1000 (!) years. In the next 100 years, the water level is predicted to rise by no more than 88 centimeters. So we are not talking about a huge flood.
So far, the expected annual damage to the world economy due to global warming by 2050 is estimated at approximately $300 billion. The costs of complying with the terms of the Kyoto Protocol are estimated to be approximately twice as much. Despite the fact that the positive effect from all these efforts most likely will not exceed 1.3 percent.
It can be assumed that the world political elite together with the best minds of humanity, they have created the greatest environmental whip of our time, which can be used to drive economies developing countries. At the same time, the strongest power in the world, the United States, is in no hurry to join the spending of money on warming that has swept the whole world. Why? Apparently they understand the absurdity of “treatment” natural phenomenon. And not only. The trick is that while the world is looking in one direction (discussing warming and spending money on it), something very important is definitely happening in the other, but hidden from the world. But what? Perhaps we will again have to wait for answers from hackers.
Global warming is a side process of human existence on this planet, which began with the industrial revolution. Typically, global warming refers to processes that cause human actions on the planet (burning fossil fuels, accelerating the greenhouse effect, melting glaciers and, as a consequence, increasing temperatures on planet Earth), leading to overall growth temperature. But let's not forget that the Earth has experienced global warming from time to time in its history without human intervention - it seems quite natural process which we cause through our unnatural actions. The fight against global warming is high on the world's agenda, and if we don't want our blue planet to turn into a lifeless Venus, we need to change the course of the global party.
With the rapid development of technology artificial intelligence(AI) in recent years, many have begun to wonder how these same technologies can help solve one of the most serious threats, which is global climate change? A new paper from some of the world's leading artificial intelligence researchers and online repository arXiv.org attempts to answer this question by offering several examples of how machine learning will be able to prevent the decline of our civilization.
Considered one of the most probable causes destruction of life on Earth. Scientists are observing dramatic changes in the planet's climate and believe that a rise in temperature is inevitable. Recently, the problem has become so acute that researchers from Harvard University have proposed a very risky method of reflecting excessive solar heat from the Earth's surface. If it doesn't work, life could be destroyed much faster than previously thought.
One of the most striking trends of the last twenty years in science is global warming! Some scientists understand by this term an increase in the average temperature of our planet’s climate, allegedly caused by the consequences of human activity, through an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere.
The scientific term global warming is most often used by scientists to denote an increase in the average temperature of the atmosphere and air near the surface of the planet, although according to some data, up to 90% of the warming energy is accumulated in the world's oceans.
Since 1900, the average air temperature on Earth has increased by 0.74 °C, with 60% of the increase occurring between 1980 and 2010, meaning almost each of the last three decades has been warmer than the previous one. Let's try to figure out whether this warming is humanity's fault, or is someone trying to lead us by the nose?
Possible causes of global warming
TO possible reasons global warming, the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 attributed increased concentrations to human activity.
Three years later, a number of scientists from the leading industrial countries of the planet agreed with these conclusions, and already in 2013, the fifth IPCC report gave the following assessment:
Human influence has been established on increasing atmospheric and ocean temperatures, changing the global hydrological cycle, decreasing the amount of snow and ice, increasing the global average sea level and on some extreme climatic phenomena… Evidence of human influence has become even stronger in the time since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). It is extremely likely that human influence has been the main cause of the warming observed since the mid-20th century...
Thus, the IPCC insists that the cause of global warming of the Earth’s climate during the late 20th century beginning of the XXI centuries lies in increased levels of greenhouse gases due to human activities. According to scientists from the IPCC and according to the values of climate sensitivity to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations accepted in models, the possible increase in average climate temperature during the 21st century will be 1.1-2.9 °C for the minimum emission scenario, and for maximum emissions the average temperature may rise by 2.4-6.4 °C. For reference, from 2000 to 2010, greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.2% per year, while in the period 1970-2000 the growth of emissions was 1.3% per year.
Potential consequences of global warming
IN different regions planet, the potential consequences of global warming may be different. The main danger may be a change in the amount and nature of precipitation, rising sea levels with a simultaneous increase in desert areas.
Scientists include ocean acidification as risks of global warming; increase in frequency of extreme weather phenomena, including both droughts and showers; possible extinction individual biological species due to changes in temperature. All this can reduce crop yields and lead to food problems, especially in disadvantaged regions of Africa and Asia. Moreover, because possible increase sea level, some habitats will simply become inaccessible to people.
Estimated consequences of global warming for Russia
The domestic Roshydrometcenter has identified the following for Russia: possible risks that may be associated with global warming:
- an increase in the intensity, duration and frequency of extreme precipitation and floods, cases of soil waterlogging dangerous for agriculture in some regions, and droughts in others;
- degradation of permafrost with damage to buildings and communications in the Arctic;
- increased fire danger in forest areas;
- increase in energy costs for air conditioning in summer season for a significant part of populated areas;
- disruption of ecological balance, displacement of some biological species by others;
Attempts to prevent the Earth's climate from warming
The main international agreement to combat global warming until 2012 was the famous Kyoto Protocol, which was agreed upon in the last century, but came into force only at the beginning of 2005. The Kyoto Protocol is a supplement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted on May 9, 1992. According to the Kyoto Protocol, more than 160 countries around the world participate in a program to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, which covers 55% of global emissions.
It is also worth noting that countries such as the USA, Canada, Afghanistan and Andorra have not ratified the Kyoto Protocol and are in fact not implementing it.
Countries participating in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at a conference in Cancun (Mexico) in 2010 adopted the main goal of limiting global warming to 2 °C and stated the “urgent need to take urgent action” to achieve this goal.
At the same time, the United States, the European Union and China today have industries that, over their lifetime, will emit more carbon dioxide into the Earth’s atmosphere than “their share of these countries in a uniform per capita distribution of the global emissions budget” for 2 °C. China's atmospheric emissions have already surpassed the United States and the European Union combined.
In fact, all efforts to combat global warming are aimed at reducing the emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, although some scientists propose interesting methods, such as, for example, removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by fertilizing the waters of the world's oceans with iron.
Misconceptions and myths about global warming
In addition to those who firmly believe in the global warming hypothesis and that the causes of rising temperatures are people and their industries, there are also those who are skeptical about such claims. There is even a term - “climate skepticism”, that is, distrust of certain ideas about global warming of the planet’s climate. The subject of doubt among “climate skeptics” is often both the fact of warming itself and the role of humanity in this process.
For example, “climate skeptics” do not believe in the complete melting of Arctic ice by 2030–2050, as adherents of the anthropogenic version of global warming warn about.
There are even those who claim that the “global warming theory” is nothing more than a “conspiracy” to control countries and corporations, as well as a convenient mechanism for obtaining funding for Scientific research related to climate change.
The so-called “Climategate”, a scandal involving the leak of an archive of email correspondence, data files and data processing programs from the climate science department of the University of East Anglia in Norwich, added fuel to the fire. In 2009, unknown individuals distributed an archived file online that contained information stolen from the climate science department at the University of East Anglia, which is one of the three main suppliers of climate data to the UN IPCC.
- climatologists who support the AGP theory hide information about climate from opponents of the theory;
- distort the results of observations in order to confirm global warming;
- prevent publication scientific works who do not agree with their views;
- delete files and correspondence rather than disclose them in accordance with freedom of information laws.
By following the link you can get acquainted with data from the archive, based on information from which several studies were carried out independent investigations, which studied the activities of scientists participating in this email correspondence. All these investigations exonerated the scientists, but the publication definitely provided plenty of food for thought!
The fact that Greenpeace, WWF and the Center for International Environmental Law insist that top managers of fossil fuel corporations should be held accountable for opposing policies aimed at combating climate change is already alarming, because the same the ill-fated Greenpeace simply “doesn’t work”; where there is no smell of big money, they most often remain silent.
Figures and facts about climate change
The main point that climatologists who support the theory of anthropogenic global warming refer to is the process of melting glaciers in the Arctic and Antarctic. According to open statistics, over the past fifty years the temperature in the southwestern part of Antarctica has increased by 2.5 °C. For example, in 2002, an iceberg with an area of over 2,500 km² and a thickness of up to 200 meters broke off from the Larsen Ice Shelf, located in Antarctica, although this glacier remained stable for ten thousand years. The melting of the Antarctic ice shelf has led to the release of an impressive number of icebergs (more than a thousand icebergs) into the Weddell Sea. And although the area of Antarctic glaciation is growing, the mass of its ice is decreasing.
Scientists have also noted the fact that the process of permafrost degradation has accelerated since the early 1970s; according to statistics, the temperature of permafrost soils in Western Siberia has increased by 1 °C, and in central Yakutia by 1.5 °C. On the neighboring continent of northern Alaska, temperatures in the upper permafrost layer have increased by 3°C since the mid-1980s.
An indicative fact of global warming can be considered the discovery by researcher Dennis Schmitt in 2005 that the peninsula in Greenland, which was connected to Liverpool Land by ice back in 2002, had become an island. That is long years a thick layer of ice did not allow them to discover that there was no land underneath and to understand that the researchers were looking at an island surrounded by water, and not a peninsula. As a result, the newly minted one was literally called “Warming Island.”
P.S. Just the other day it came out about the myths of global warming in English The Telegraph:
Climate scientists such as Professor Peter Wadhams (University of Cambridge) and Professor Wieslaw Maslowski (US Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California) have in recent years regularly predicted near-total melting of Arctic ice by 2016. These disappointing forecasts often published by the world's leading media, the BBC for example, and many other media.
British climatologist Peter Wadhams even published a book, “A Farewell To Ice,” which intimidates total loss Arctic ice cover... But the latest satellite images of the Arctic showed that in 2016 there was more ice at the North Pole than in 2012.
After analyzing data obtained from satellites, it became known that at the beginning of autumn 2016, the area of Arctic ice cover was 1.09 million square kilometers, which is 21% more than in 2012, when the ice area was at its minimum.
Experts from the American center NSIDC (National Snow and Ice Data Center) said that Wadhams and Maslowski were wrong in their forecasts, and believe that there is no need to dramatize and sow unnecessary panic, much less provide unreliable data on the scale of global warming.
And for dessert, we left the opinion of the flamboyant Anatoly Wasserman on global cataclysms, such as the greenhouse effect and global warming.
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