The problem of climate imbalance has become acute recently. Over the first 10 years of the 21st century, the volume of emissions of harmful gases increased 4 times. For this reason, there is now a persistent increase in ambient temperature.
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Global warming: myth or reality?
The issue of global warming is receiving more and more attention. Every day new theories and facts appear, old ones are refuted or confirmed. Publications contradict one another, which often leads to misconceptions. Let's try to figure this issue out.
Global warming is understood as the process of increasing the temperature of the environment (averaged indicators for the year), ocean waters, and the surface of the planet, caused by changes in the activity of the Sun, an increase in the emission of harmful gases in the atmosphere and other factors that arise as a by-product of human activity. Let's figure out what threatens us with a change in temperature.
Consequences of global warming
TO The consequences of global warming include:
- climatic changes, which are manifested by abnormal temperatures. Here are some examples of this process: very coldy in winter alternate with quite high temperature during warming periods, abnormally hot or cold summers;
- reduction of water supplies suitable for consumption;
- decreased yields of many crops;
- melting glaciers, which increases water levels in the oceans and leads to the appearance of icebergs;
- growth in number natural disasters: prolonged droughts, heavy rainfalls in certain regions where this was not typical; destructive hurricanes and tornadoes;
- desertification and increase in areas unsuitable for life;
- reduction in the diversity of biological species due to the inability to adapt to new living conditions.
Whether this is dangerous for humanity or not, it is impossible to say for sure. Question in how quickly he can adapt to new conditions. There is an acute imbalance in quality of life in different regions. Less populated but more developed countries The Earth is trying with all its might to stop the process of destructive anthropogenic influence on the environment, in while in densely populated, less developed countries in The first priority is the problem of survival. Global climate change could lead to further increase this imbalance.
Scientists monitor signs of ongoing changes in research results chemical composition atmosphere and ocean waters, meteorological observations, changes in the speed at which glaciers are melting, graphs of changes in ice areas.
The rate of iceberg formation is also being investigated. Predictions based on the data obtained provide insight into the consequences of human influence on ecosystems. Evidence obtained from research shows that the threat lies in the fact that the rate of climate change is increasing every year, so the main challenge is the need to implement environmentally friendly safe ways production and restoration of natural balance.
Historical facts about climate change
Analysis of paleontological data suggests that periods of cooling and warming have accompanied the Earth at all times. Cold periods were replaced by warming periods and vice versa. In the Arctic latitudes in summer the temperature rose to +13 o C. In contrast, there was a time when tropical latitudes there were glaciers.
The theory confirms that humanity has witnessed several periods of climate change. There is evidence in historical chronicles that in the 11th-13th centuries there was no ice cover on the territory of Greenland, for this reason Norwegian sailors called it “green land”. Then a period of cooling came, and the territory of the island was covered with ice. At the beginning of the 20th century, a period of warming began again, as a result, the areas of glaciers in the mountains and ice decreased Arctic Ocean. In the 1940s, there was a short-term cooling, and since the 1980s, an active increase in temperature began throughout the planet.
In the 21st century, the essence of the problem is that the influence of anthropogenic factors has been added to the natural causes of changes in environmental temperature. The pressure on ecosystems is constantly increasing. Its manifestation is observed in all regions of the planet.
Causes of global warming
Scientists are not ready to say with precision why climate conditions are changing. Many theories and hypotheses have a right to exist. The most common hypotheses are:
- The world's oceans influence the climate. It accumulates solar energy. Changing currents have a direct impact on climatic conditions coastal countries. Air masses, which are formed under the influence of these currents, regulate the temperature and weather conditions of many countries and continents. The circulation of heat in ocean waters has been little studied. The formation of hurricanes, which then come to continents with destructive force, is a consequence of disruptions in heat circulation in the oceans. Ocean water contains carbon dioxide and other harmful impurities, the concentration of which is several times higher than in the atmosphere. Under certain natural processes, these gases can be released into the atmosphere, which causes further climate changes on the planet.
- The smallest changes in solar activity directly affect the climate on Earth. Scientists have identified several cycles of changes in solar activity lasting 11, 22 and 80-90 years. It is likely that increased activity in present time will decrease and the air temperature will drop by several degrees.
- Volcanic activity. According to studies, during large volcanic eruptions an initial decrease in air temperature is observed, which is due to the release of large volumes of soot and sulfuric acid aerosols into the air. Then there is significant warming, which is caused by an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide resulting from the volcanic eruption.
- Climate change is the result of anthropogenic influence. This hypothesis is the most popular. Comparing the rate of economic and technological growth, population growth and trends in climate change, scientists came to the conclusion that everything is connected with human activity. Side effect The active pace of industrial development has led to the emission of harmful gases and air pollution. According to research results, the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere creates a so-called shell, which leads to disruption of the planet’s heat exchange and a gradual increase in the temperature of the air, the Earth’s surface, and ocean waters.
Ways to solve the problem of global warming
According to a number of scientists, if people take on the problem of global warming in the coming years, the rate of climate change can be reduced. If people's lifestyle remains unchanged, it will not be possible to avoid the fate of dinosaurs.
Scientists suggest different ways how to fight and stop global warming. Ways to solve the problem of climate change and reduce the burden on the environment are very different: from landscaping areas, breeding new varieties of plants adapted to changing conditions, and ending with the development of new technological processes that will have less impact on nature. In any case, the struggle should be aimed not only at solving current problems, but also at preventing negative consequences in the future. Not last role here the reduction in the use of non-renewable energy sources and the transition to the use of renewable ones is given. Many countries are already switching to geo- and wind energy.
Much attention is paid to the development regulatory documents, whose main task is to reduce emissions of harmful gases into the atmosphere and preserve biological diversity. This requires significant investment, but as long as people put their own well-being first, it will not be possible to get rid of the problem of climate change and prevent its consequences.
Global warming- the most acute climate problem, causing significant changes in the natural balance in the world. According to the report of Leonid Zhindarev (research fellow at the Faculty of Geography of Moscow State University), by the end of the 21st century, the level of the World Ocean will rise by one and a half to two meters, which will lead to catastrophic consequences. Approximate calculations show that 20% of the planet's population will remain homeless. The most fertile coastal zones will be flooded, many islands with thousands of people will disappear from the world map.
Global warming processes have been monitored since the beginning of the last century. It was noted that the average air temperature on the planet increased by one degree - 90% of the increase in temperature occurred from 1980 to 2016, when the industrial industry began to flourish. It is also worth noting that these processes are theoretically irreversible - in the distant future, air temperatures may increase so much that there will be practically no glaciers left on the planet.
Causes of global warming
Global warming is a massive uncontrolled increase average annual temperature air on our planet. According to recent studies, the trend towards a global increase in air temperature has persisted throughout the history of the Earth. The planet's climate system readily responds to any external factors, which leads to a change in thermal cycles - the well-known ice ages are replaced by extremely warm times.
Among the main reasons for such fluctuations, the following have been identified:
- natural changes in atmospheric composition;
- solar luminosity cycles;
- planetary variations (changes in the Earth's orbit);
- volcanic eruptions, emissions carbon dioxide.
Global warming was first noted in prehistoric times, when a cold climate gave way to a hot tropical one. Then this was facilitated by the exuberant growth of breathing fauna, which led to an increase in carbon dioxide levels. In its turn, elevated temperature caused more intense evaporation of water, which further intensified the processes of global warming.
Thus, the first climate change in history was caused by a significant increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The following substances are currently known to contribute to the greenhouse effect:
It is also worth noting the significantly increased concentration of solid particles - dust and some others. They increase the heat earth's surface, increase the absorption of energy by the surface of the oceans, which leads to an increase in temperature throughout the Earth. Thus, the cause of modern global warming can be considered human activity. Other factors, such as changes in solar activity, do not have the desired effect.
Consequences of global temperature increase
The International Commission (IPGC) published a working report that reflects possible scenarios for the consequences associated with global warming. The main motive of the report is that the trend towards an increase in average annual temperatures will continue; humanity is unlikely to be able to compensate for its influence on the planet’s climate processes. It should be noted that the relationship between climate change and the state of ecosystems is currently poorly understood, so most of the forecasts are tentative.
Among all the expected consequences, one thing has been reliably established - an increase in the level of the World Ocean. As of 2016, an annual increase in water level of 3-4 mm was noted. The increase in average annual air temperature is caused by two factors:
- melting glaciers;
- thermal expansion of water.
If current climate trends continue, by the end of the 21st century the level of the World Ocean will rise by a maximum of two meters. In the next few centuries, its level may reach five meters above the present level.
Melting glaciers will change the chemical composition of water, as well as the distribution atmospheric precipitation. An increase in the number of floods, hurricanes and other extreme disasters is expected. In addition, there will be a global change in ocean currents - for example, the Gulf Stream has already changed its direction, which has led to certain consequences in a number of countries.
Can't be overstated. Tropical countries will experience catastrophic decline in productivity Agriculture. The most fertile regions will be flooded, which could ultimately lead to mass famine. However, it is worth noting that such serious consequences are not expected for several hundred years - humanity has enough time to take appropriate measures.
Addressing global warming and its consequences
At the international level, the fight against global warming is limited by the lack of common agreements and control measures. The main document that regulates measures to combat climate change is the Kyoto Protocol. In general, the level of responsibility in the fight against global warming can be assessed positively.
Industrial standards are constantly being improved, new environmental standards are being adopted that regulate industrial production. The level of emissions into the atmosphere is reduced, glaciers are taken under protection, and ocean currents are constantly monitored. Climatologists estimate that maintaining the current environmental campaign will help reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 30-40% by next year.
It is worth noting the increased participation of private companies in the fight against global warming. For example, British millionaire Richard Branson announced a scientific tender for The best way preventing global warming. The winner will receive an impressive $25 million. According to Branson, humanity must take responsibility for its activities. At the moment, several dozen applicants have been registered offering their solutions to this problem..
Global warming (interglacials) over the past 0.5 million years.
Climate indicators: sea level change (blue), 18 O concentration in sea water, CO 2 concentration in Antarctic ice. The division of the time scale is 20,000 years. Peaks in sea level, CO2 concentrations, and minima in 18O coincide with interglacial temperature maxima.
Climate systems change both as a result of natural internal processes and in response to external influences (anthropogenic and non-human). At the same time, geological and paleontological data show the presence of long-term climatic cycles, which in the Quaternary period took the form of periodic glaciations, with the present time falling on the interglacial period (see figure).
The causes of such climate changes remain unknown, however, among the main external influences are changes in the Earth's orbit (Milankovitch cycles), solar activity (including changes in the solar constant), volcanic emissions and the greenhouse effect. According to direct climate observations (temperature measurements over the past 200 years), average temperatures on Earth have increased, but the reasons for this increase remain a matter of debate. One of the most widely discussed causes is the anthropogenic greenhouse effect.
There is scientific consensus that current Global warming is highly likely explained by human activity and caused by an anthropogenic increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere, and, as a result, an increase in the greenhouse effect.
Greenhouse gas emissions
The greenhouse effect was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first quantitatively studied by Svante Arrhenius in . This is the process by which the absorption and emission of infrared radiation by atmospheric gases causes heating of the planet's atmosphere and surface.
On Earth, the main greenhouse gases are: water vapor (responsible for approximately 36-70% of the greenhouse effect, excluding clouds), carbon dioxide (CO 2) (9-26%), methane (CH 4) (4-9%) and ozone (3-7%). Atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and CH 4 have increased by 31% and 149%, respectively, since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the mid-18th century. According to separate studies, such concentration levels have been reached for the first time in the last 650 thousand years - a period for which reliable data have been obtained from polar ice samples.
About half of all greenhouse gases produced during economic activity humanity remain in the atmosphere. About three-quarters of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions over the past 20 years resulted from the extraction and combustion of oil, natural gas, and coal, with about half of the volume of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions being sequestered by terrestrial vegetation and the ocean. Most of the remaining CO 2 emissions are caused by changes in the landscape, primarily deforestation, but the rate of carbon dioxide sequestration by terrestrial vegetation exceeds the rate of its anthropogenic release due to deforestation.
Other theories
Change in solar activity
Various hypotheses have been proposed to explain changes in the Earth's temperature by corresponding changes in solar activity.
The third IPCC report states that solar and volcanic activity can explain half temperature changes until 1950, but their overall effect after that was approximately zero. In particular, the impact of the greenhouse effect since 1750, according to the IPCC, is 8 times higher than the impact of changes in solar activity.
Later work refined the estimates of solar activity's contribution to warming after 1950. However, the conclusions remained roughly the same: “The best estimates of the contribution of solar activity to warming range from 16% to 36% of the contribution of the greenhouse effect” (“Are Models Underestimating the Contribution of the Greenhouse Effect?” solar activity in last changes climate,” Peter A. Scott et al., Journal of Climate, December 15, 2003).
However, there are a number of studies suggesting the existence of mechanisms that enhance the effect of solar activity, which are not taken into account in current models, or that the importance of solar activity in comparison with other factors is underestimated. Such claims are disputed but are an active area of research.
Little Ice Age theory
According to one hypothesis, global warming will lead to a stop or serious weakening of the Gulf Stream. This will cause a significant drop in average temperatures in Europe (while temperatures in other regions will rise, but not necessarily in all), as the Gulf Stream warms the continent by transporting warm water from the tropics.
According to the hypothesis of climatologists M. Ewing and W. Donn, in the cryoera there is an oscillatory process in which glaciation (ice age) is generated by climate warming, and deglaciation (exit from the ice age) by cooling. This is due to the fact that in the Cenozoic, which is a cryoera, with the thawing of the polar ice caps, the amount of precipitation in high latitudes increases, which in winter leads to a local increase in albedo. Subsequently, the temperature of the deep regions of the continents decreases northern hemisphere with the subsequent formation of glaciers. When the polar ice caps freeze, glaciers in the deep regions of the continents of the northern hemisphere, not receiving enough recharge in the form of precipitation, begin to thaw.
Reconstruction of the consequences
Great importance in reconstruction possible consequences modern climate fluctuations is the restoration of the natural conditions of the previous interglacial - Mikulinsky - which took place after the end of the Rissky (Dnieper) glaciation. During the warmest epochs of the Mikulino interglacial, the temperature was several degrees higher than the modern one (established from isotope analyzes of microorganism remains and gas inclusions in the ice caps of Antarctica and Greenland), the boundaries natural areas were shifted north by several hundred kilometers compared to modern ones. When reconstructing the warmer periods of the modern interglacial - the so-called Holocene Climatic Optimum, which took place from 6 to 5 thousand years ago, the following was established. The average annual temperature was 2-3 degrees higher than modern ones, and the boundaries of natural zones were also located north of modern ones (their overall plan geographical distribution approximately coincided with the Mikulin interglacial). From the available data on paleogeography, it is logical to assume that with a further increase in temperatures geographic envelope will transform in a similar way. This contradicts the hypotheses about the cooling of northern Europe and North America and the displacement of natural zones in these regions to the south from their current position.
The mutual influence of climate change and ecosystems is still poorly understood. It remains unclear whether the effects of global warming are being enhanced or weakened by natural mechanisms. For example, an increase in carbon concentration leads to an intensification of plant photosynthesis, which prevents the increase in concentration. On the other hand, the increase in the area of drylands reduces the processing of carbon dioxide.
Forecast
- The European Union must reduce emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases by 8%.
- USA - by 7%.
- Japan - by 6%.
The protocol provides for a system of quotas for greenhouse gas emissions. Its essence lies in the fact that each country (so far this applies only to thirty-eight countries that have committed to reducing emissions) receives permission to emit a certain amount of greenhouse gases. It is assumed that some countries or companies will exceed the emission quota. In such cases, these countries or companies will be able to buy the right to additional emissions from those countries or companies whose emissions are less than the allocated quota. Thus it is assumed that the main objective- reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 5% over the next 15 years will be achieved.
There is also conflict at the interstate level. Developing countries such as India and China, which contribute significantly to greenhouse gas pollution, attended the Kyoto meeting but did not sign the agreement. Developing countries In general, environmental initiatives of industrialized states are viewed with caution. The arguments are simple:
- The main pollution by greenhouse gases is carried out by developed countries
- tightening control is beneficial to industrial countries, as it will restrain economic development developing countries.
- Greenhouse gas pollution has accumulated in developed countries in the process of their development.
Criticism of the concept of anthropogenic global warming
The famous British naturalist and TV presenter David Bellamy believes that the most important environmental problem on the planet is the reduction in the area of tropical forests in South America. In his opinion, the danger of global warming is greatly exaggerated, while the disappearance of forests, in which two-thirds of all animal and plant species on the planet live, is indeed a real and serious threat to humanity.
Russian theoretical physicist V.G. Gorshkov came to a similar conclusion, based on the theory of biotic regulation he had been developing since 1979, according to which irreversible climate changes are more likely to be caused not by greenhouse gases, but by a violation of the homeostatic mechanism of global moisture and heat transfer, which is ensured vegetation of the planet - subject to some threshold reduction in the area of natural forests.
The famous American physicist Freeman Dyson argues that the measures proposed to combat global warming have long ceased to belong to the realm of science, but are politicking and speculative business.
The founder of the Weather Channel, journalist John Coleman, considers “so-called global warming to be the greatest scam in history.” According to him, “Some vile and cowardly scientists, for the sake of protecting the environment and various political goals, are blatantly manipulating long-term weather observations to create the illusion of global warming among people. There will be no rapid climate change. Humankind's impact on the Earth's climate is negligible. Our planet is not in danger. In one or two decades, the inconsistency of the theory of global warming will be obvious to everyone.”
Changes in the average temperature of the Earth over the past 500 million years. Throughout most of Earth's history, temperatures have been significantly higher than they are today.
There is also a moderate position, according to which, although the influence of the anthropogenic factor on the current warming is increasing, it is still much less than the influence natural factors. This point of view is shared, in particular, by Russian climate change specialist V. Klimenko.
University of East Anglia Norwich leak incident (November 2009)
Figures and facts
Map of changes in the thickness of mountain glaciers since 1970. Thinning in orange and red colors, thickening in blue.
One of the most visible processes associated with global warming is the melting of glaciers.
The mass of Antarctic ice is decreasing at an accelerating pace. However, the area of Antarctic glaciation is growing.
An acceleration of the process of permafrost degradation has been noted.
Other aspects of climate change
Global change climate change is not limited to warming. There is also a change in the salt density of the oceans, an increase in air humidity, a change in the nature of rainfall and melting arctic ice at a speed of approximately 600 thousand square meters. km per decade. The atmosphere becomes wetter, with more rainfall at high and low latitudes and less rainfall in tropical and subtropical regions.
see also
Notes
- Brohan, P.; J. J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S. F. B. Tett, P. D. Jones (2006-06-24). “Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850.” Journal of Geophysical Research 111 (D12): D12106. DOI:10.1029/2005JD006548. ISSN 0148-0227. Retrieved 2012-12-24.
- Climate Change, 2001. Consequences, adaptation and vulnerability. IPCC Technical Summary for Policy Makers. III report, 2001
- Climate Change and Biodiversity. IPCC Technical Paper V - April 2002
- IPCC. (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis (summary for policy makers), IPCC.
- Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
- Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
- http://www.dsri.dk/~hsv/SSR_Paper.pdf
- http://www.envirotruth.org/docs/Veizer-Shaviv.pdf (unavailable link)
- http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Solar-ClimateLAUTPREPRINT.pdf
- http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/FACULTY/POPP/Rahmstorf%20et%20al.%202004%20EOS.pdf
- Kirill Eskov, “History of the Earth and life on it: From chaos to man.” - M.: NC ENAS, 2004. - 312 p. - 10,000 copies. ISBN 5-93196-477-0
- global heat transfer modes:
- cryoera - continental climate on land in combination with warm oceans (which is explained by the position of the continents in the equatorial zone), as a result of which heat is transferred in the hydrosphere from the equatorial zone to high latitudes (for example, the Gulf Stream), as a result of which anticyclones develop in the atmosphere at polar latitudes , A monsoon rains do not reach high latitudes.
- thermoera - smooth warm climate on land (for example, in Jurassic period), in combination with an analogue continental climate for the oceans (which is explained by the absence of continents in the equatorial zone), leading to the fact that there is no heat transfer in the hydrosphere from the equatorial zone to high latitudes, as a result of which global heat transfer is carried out by the atmosphere and not by the oceans, and as a result, there are no anticyclones in the polar latitudes, and monsoon rains reach high latitudes, leveling the climate on land.
- The role of terrestrial ecosystems in greenhouse gas sequestration: more questions than answers
- UN System Action on Climate Change
- Review of the activities of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
- Reporting on Climate Change, pp.14-15
- The scientist was suspended from the BBC for denying global warming (November 6, 2008). Retrieved December 15, 2009.
- Publications on biotic regulation
- Elements: Heretical thoughts about science and society
- http://elementy.ru/download/dyson/rus_01.wmv Video recording of the lecture with Russian simultaneous translation
- John Coleman Says Global Warming Is a Myth (November 11, 2007). Retrieved December 15, 2009.
- Bjorn Lomborg. Cool it down! Global warming. Skeptical Guide = Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming / T. Pasmurov. - Peter Press LLC, 2008. - 202 pp. - (World bestseller). - 4000 copies - ISBN 978-5-388-00065 -1
- http://www.lenta.ru/conf/kapitsa/ | Internet press conference of Andrei Petrovich Kapitsa, Correspondent Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Head of the Department of Moscow State University
- Climate sensation. What awaits us in the near and distant future?
- Climate trick
- Climatic Research Unit emails, data, models, 1996-2009 - WikiLeaks
- Sceptics publish climate e-mails "stolen from East Anglia University"
- HadCRUT
- Lies, Mr. Gordon - Greenpeace's response to A. Gordon's program on Channel 1
- Science news: the destruction of Antarctica's ice shelves is a direct threat to the planet's ecological balance
- Skeptical Science: Antarctica is gaining ice
- The expansion of Antarctica has been attributed to global warming. Lenta.ru (August 18, 2010). Archived from the original on August 26, 2011. Retrieved September 3, 2010.
- Global warming and permafrost thawing: risk assessment for production facilities of the Russian fuel and energy complex
- Error in footnotes? : Invalid tag ; no text provided for bbc footnotes
Links
Portals
- Public information portal “Global Climate Change”
Reports, reports
- Climate Change 2007. Synthesis report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in Russian
- Copenhagen Diagnosis 2009. Review of the latest climate science news, in Russian. - UNSW, Sydney, Australia
- (English) John E. Walsh, James E. Overland, Pavel Y. Groisman, Bruno Rudolf. Ongoing Climate Change in the Arctic. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 2012
Articles and books
- A. Sergeev, Global warming, or High degree of politics // Around the world, 2006 No. 7
- Ivashchenko O. V., Climate change and changes in greenhouse gas circulation cycles in the atmosphere-lithosphere-hydrosphere system - feedbacks can significantly enhance the greenhouse effect.
- A. V. Pavlov, G. F. Gravis. Permafrost and modern climate // GEO.WEB.RU
- Melting permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere
- B. Luchkov. The coming years (climate and weather of the XXI century) // Science and Life, 2007 No. 10
- Bjorn Lomborg. “Cool it! Global warming. Skeptical Guide", 2007, ISBN 978-5-388-00065-1
- Bjorn Lomborg. Stupid fear of global warming.
International agreements
- UN Framework Convention on Climate Change - official website (in English, Spanish and French)
- UN Framework Convention on Climate Change // UN website (rus)
- Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change // UN website (rus)
Other
- Weather: Global warming, program “Special Correspondent” by Alexander Khabarov // Russia channel
- Experiment on distributed climate modeling in the 21st century
- Sceptical Science - a critical review of the arguments against modern global warming and its anthropogenic nature (Russian)
| Climate, Climatology | |
|---|---|
| Changing of the climate | Paleoclimatology El Niño Geochemical carbon cycle Proterozoic glaciation, Ice Age, Little Ice Age Thermal maximum (Late Paleocene thermal maximum, Last Glacial Maximum) Glaciers Heat turnover |
| Global warming | Deforestation Climate Change Global Climate Model Global Cooling Global Dimming Ozone Hole Greenhouse Effect Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Gases Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Kyoto Protocol) Peak Oil Renewable Energy Temperature Trend |
Global warming is perhaps one of the most widespread environmental problems. Everywhere you can find activists fighting to reduce humanity’s impact on the planet’s climate. If, in fact, humanity is causing the world's sea levels to rise markedly by producing carbon dioxide, which is often thought to be the cause of global warming, then of course something needs to be done about it.
But what if global warming is caused not by human activity, but by some other processes? The theory that humanity's use of fossil fuels is leading to significant increases in the temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans has been criticized by some scientists. What if the increase in temperature is not as significant as global warming activists claim? Scientists give ambiguous answers to these questions, but observational data indicate a slowdown in the rate of temperature rise.
The topic of global warming is very politicized, since slogans to combat warming are a good lever of influence in foreign policy. And it is very difficult to find a truly objective assessment of this problem.
Global warming or Little Ice Age
Global warming is the process of increasing the average annual temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and the World Ocean.
According to RSS satellite data, from September 1996 to January 2014 there was no global warming for 209 months (17 years 5 months), even a slight decrease in temperature. Despite the record high rate of increase in CO 2 concentrations.
Hans von Storch, a climate scientist and professor at the Meteorological Institute at the University of Hamburg, acknowledged that there have been no significant increases in temperature over the past 15 years.
Maybe it has begun" global cooling"? Russian Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Head of Sector space research The Sun of the Pulkovo Observatory, Habibullo Ismailovich Abdusamatov, believes that approximately from 2014 the Little Ice Age should begin, whose peak will occur in 2055, plus or minus 11 years.
However, according to most scientists, global warming still exists. Since 1880 (then relatively accurate thermometers appeared), the temperature has risen by 0.6 °C - 0.8 °C.
Practice - best criterion the correctness of the theory.
Temperatures calculated in accordance with the models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) depend on the concentration of CO 2, it should be noted that its concentration has increased significantly recently. With the advent of relatively accurate information Temperature data from satellites has increased since 1979. However, as can be seen from the animated graph, the theoretical temperature values are significantly higher than the observed temperatures.
IPCC computer models produce temperature increases that are twice as high as those observed in reality. And in fact, none of the IPCC models provide data consistent with no recent global warming.
“Until now, no one has been able to provide a convincing explanation for why climate change could be stopped,” Hans von Storch told Der Spiegel in June 2013.
“According to most climate models, we should have seen a temperature rise of about 0.25°C over the past 10 years. That did not happen. In fact, in more than the last 15 years there has been an increase of only 0.06 °C - a value very close to zero,” Storch told Der Spiegel. Apparently the average temperature is calculated differently, since this value is slightly different from zero value in the temperature change shown in the first graph.
Is there scientific evidence that global warming is caused by human activity?
Global warming has been attributed to human activities, such as the burning of unprecedented amounts of fossil fuels, which are increasing the amount of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas.
Polls show that 97% of climate scientists and commentators believe that "global average temperatures have increased" over the past century; they also believe that human activity is important factor, contributing to changes in average global temperature. But the proof of the validity of a theory cannot be the number of its supporters; the theory is proven by practice.
The main argument of supporters of the influence theory is the climate warming observed over the last century with the simultaneous accumulation of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It is because of this that the greenhouse gas hypothesis is accepted on faith with virtually no testing. But recent trends in climate change, shown in the figures above, indicate that this hypothesis is likely wrong.
In the video recording of the program “Obvious - Incredible,” Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, creator of the adiabatic theory of the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere, which provides an explanation for the evolution of earth’s climates, Oleg Georgievich Sorokhtin gives a scientific view on the problem of global warming. In accordance with his theory, the accumulation of CO 2 in the atmosphere, other things being equal, can only lead to a cooling of the climate and to a slight increase in synoptic activity in the Earth's troposphere. Scientists associate climate warming with solar activity, like Khabibullo Ismailovich Abdusamatov, who is also one of the main critics of the theory that anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions create Greenhouse effect which leads to global warming.
Canadian environmentalist Patrick Moore, one of the co-founders of Greenpeace, testified before the US Congress that climate change, particularly the gradual rise in Earth's surface temperature over the last century, was not the fault of humans.
“There is no scientific evidence that anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere are main reason slight warming of the Earth's atmosphere over the past century."
“If there was such proof, it would have already been presented to humanity. But so far there is none scientific proof these hypotheses"
Some scientists claim that greenhouse gases do not exist. For example, Dr. Pierre Latour, vice-chairman of the United Kingdom-based association Principia Scientific International (PSI), argues that CO 2 concentration does not affect atmospheric temperature, but temperature does affect CO 2 concentration. He argues that greenhouse gases do not exist and CO 2 is not an air pollutant, it is simply a plant nutrient. The website of this organization constantly publishes materials refuting the greenhouse effect of CO 2 .
Thus, part of the scientific community does not support the theory that increasing CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere leads to global warming of the planet's climate. IN last years No significant climate warming was observed, despite rising carbon dioxide concentrations. So perhaps we should be more concerned about solving other environmental problems that may be more serious than the problem of global warming.
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At the end of the last century, a group of scientists went to the Arctic. It is here that the history of our planet is perfectly preserved in the thickness of the ice. Ice is a time machine that takes us back in time, revealing climate change. Everything was preserved in the layers of ice - sand and volcanic dust, the concentration of isotopes and carbon dioxide. Therefore, you can easily understand what happened to the atmosphere. If you plot the changes in ambient temperature and the level of carbon dioxide obtained in ice cores, then the cause of the crisis is modern world will become obvious. The level of carbon dioxide is directly dependent on the temperature level. In the twenty-first century, the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere began to grow at a gigantic pace. Carbon dioxide is one of the known greenhouse gases. The thing is that greenhouse gases trap heat emitted from the surface of our planet. Instead of leaving the atmosphere, the heat remains in it. And the greenhouse effect causes global warming. What global warming can lead to and its consequences, you will learn in this article.
Causes of global warming
If carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere continue to rise further, humanity faces an unenviable future. Warming is inevitable, and scientists provide several proofs of this fact. If we consider the situation with the Arctic, we can find that the Arctic received quite a lot sunlight V cold period. At first glance, it is a little strange why the abundance of sun gives little heat, but the reason is carbon dioxide. In Antarctica, during cold times, the level of carbon dioxide was low, and when the area was warm, the concentration of carbon dioxide was increased. The relationship between these two indicators was discovered a long time ago, but in the twenty-first century the situation has changed. So, after all, what will global warming and its consequences lead to? Today, the jump in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is caused not only by natural processes. The human factor played a big role.
Global warming is an irreversible process and is projected to reach record levels by the end of this century.
A century and a half ago, the industrial revolution began, rapid development production led to the fact that carbon dioxide levels began to rise sharply. People burn fuels, fossils, cut down trees. This is why carbon dioxide accumulates in the atmosphere. If a person does not change anything, then the level of carbon dioxide will continue to rise, increasing by thirty percent every half century. At this rate, global temperatures will reach record highs by the end of this century. But maybe not everything is so scary, and humanity will live wonderfully in new conditions: exotic fruits will begin to be grown on Russian territory, and the winter vacation will they look like summer ones? Let's turn to the opinions of the great minds of humanity.
Consequences of global warming
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The mechanisms that caused the melting of glaciers millions of years ago are still at work today. Humanity is worried - our planet is approaching global melting several times faster than it was before. Once past the tipping point, climate change will be irreversible. An increase in average temperature of just 5-7 degrees can have a detrimental effect on the ecosystem and humans. The Earth is on the verge of a planetary cataclysm. If effective and urgent action is not taken, our generation may already be witnessing a six meter rise in sea levels.
Today it is unknown when exactly the process of melting ice will become irreversible. Some scientists believe that the destruction of the ice cover has already passed a critical point. True, according to the most optimistic forecasts, if you start taking measures, the situation can be saved. Of course, humanity can move cities deep into the continents, start building walls, but if it fails, the world will change completely - social and economic catastrophes, chaos, the struggle for survival - that’s what awaits us. Tomorrow may be different from today, but everything depends only on us.
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