Employees of the Laboratory Hydrometeorology of the Arctic Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation together with foreign colleagues studied the processes of reducing the area of \u200b\u200bmarine ice of the Northern Ocean and predicted their climatic consequences. Weather anomalies, in particular, the cold and rainy summer 2017 in the European territory of Russia are most likely a consequence of the reduction in the area of \u200b\u200bthe icy cover of the Arctic Ocean. Studies are supported by the grant of the Russian Scientific Fund (RNF). The results of the work are published in the log of Environmental Research Letters.
The processes of melting of the ice of the Arctic today are significantly accelerated. Over the past decade, the area of \u200b\u200bmarine ice (estimated at the end of the summer period) decreased by about 40%. The disappearance of the Arctic ice is fraught with serious environmental consequences, in particular the extinction of rare species of animals. On the other hand, the liberation of the water of the Northern Ocean Ocean from underground opens up new opportunities in the development of minerals on the Arctic shelves, expands the zone of industrial fisheries, improves the conditions for navigation.
Employees of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation together with colleagues studied the processes of melting of ice in the Adhesive part of the Arctic Ocean and described the consequences of these processes for the entire Arctic region. As a result of the work, a holistic picture of hydrometeorological changes in the Arctic was obtained. Warm oceanic flows bring warm water from the Atlantic Ocean to the Arctic pool and the Barents Sea, providing an accelerated melting of ice. The free from ice of the water area is effectively absorbed by solar energy and quickly warm up, giving excess heat and moisture into the atmosphere. Then the air flows and large storms redistribute heat and moisture almost throughout the territory of the Arctic, which leads to changes in the energy balance between the ocean and the atmosphere. In particular, scientists have established that significantly increases downward long-wave radiation (NDI). This infrared (thermal) radiation emitted primarily by water vapor and clouds and directed to the earth's surface. Increasing NDI contributes to heating and melting of the Arctic Sea Ice.
Blue-purple contours are shown is an isolated concentration of sea ice in the winter season for the period from 1979 to 2017 (the smallest concentration is denoted by dark blue). Red arrows depict the direction of the spread of the atlantic water. Thin black and red lines show a concentration position of 20 percent of ice stock in March 1979-2004 and in 2012, respectively.
Russian scientists drew attention to the significant effect of large storms and atmospheric circulation regimes on the state of ice cover. For example, Frank Storm, which occurred in December 2015, brought an abnormally high temperature into high latitudes of the Arctic (the deviation from the average climatic temperature was 16 ° C), and the NDI stream significantly (compared to the climatic norm). As a result, a decrease in ice thickness in some regions of the Arctic Ocean reached 10 centimeters.
Data on the Square Square Scientists were obtained from satellites, and the fields of temperature, pressure, humidity and radiation distributions from the so-called reanalysis product (ERA-Interim). The reanalysis is a computer model, assimilating perennial observation data (radiosondo, aviation, etc.) for different atmospheric characteristics.
"New knowledge gained as a result of our work allows you to more accurately analyze the causes and consequences of the processes occurring in the Arctic Ocean. If a sufficiently large area of \u200b\u200bthe Arctic is not covered with ice, cold and wet air invasions are possible on the European territory of Russia. Recently, such The situation is observed increasingly and more often and becomes the cause of weather anomalies, such as the atypical cold summer of 2017, "said the head of the laboratory of the Arctic Hydrometeorology, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Vladimir Vladimirovich Ivanov.
Meteorologists need to develop new algorithms, including information on natural processes occurring in the Arctic. This will make the weather forecasts more reliable and consistent with modern climatic changes.
On Tuesday, January 31, the Governor of the Moscow Region, Andrei Vorobyov, made an annual appeal to the residents of the region. Riamo gathered the 15 most important statements by Vorobyov. Next direct speech.
We need your breakthrough. What? Moscow region should enter the top five (regions of the Russian Federation - Ed.) In all key areas of human life. Safety and health, education and ecology, roads and quality utilities, effective public administration and a favorable investment account.
For three years of work we were able Close 20 TWW polygons. A federal program was adopted, according to which we will continue these dangerous polygons to close. We will open new, safe and build garbage processing plants.
Each region and every person Wants to live richly. That is why our priority is economics and investment.
Today, the suburbs in the top three leaders on the gross regional product. 3 trillion rubles. And our neighbor is 13. The fact that only the Moscow Ring Road shares us. For per capita income, we were 17 in the country, and now in the 15th place.
We will continue to settle the barracks. As part of the execution of the presidential decree, 16 thousand people have already received new apartments. Here are completely fresh shots from Snakov and Kotelnikov. People moved from a stable barracks.
The most valuable result Industrial, agrarian, investment policy is a job next to the house. In Kashire and Noginsk, in Lyubertsy and Shatura. In total, the area is 250 thousand new jobs.
For four years we released Routes 2.5 thousand new buses are exactly half the Mostransavto Park - and 96 trains. This update of the park in modern history near Moscow has not yet been held.
Our health workers Last year, we doubled the salary. This year doctors and medical staff.
For the quality of education We maintain leading positions in the country. On 25%, the number of "Stublitters" EGE in Russian, history, foreign languages \u200b\u200bincreased by 25%. This is an objective indicator. Our graduates are among the best.
We agreed with residents About the improvement of parks. At the start, we had 25 - and everything is in an extremely started state. Today they are already 82 - with lighting, paths, benches, development plan, and most importantly - with wheelchairs and children's laughter.
Over these four years we have become The best in the country in terms of the smallest number of officials for 10 thousand population. This indicator is 17 people. That is, we have the most optimized management structure at the regional and municipal level.
Last year we opened Six overpasses (Stupinsky District - Two, Khimki, Solnechnogorsk, Dolgoprudny, Chekhovsky district), 28 roads, including the long-awaited southern part of Podolsk, bypassing the village of Aviation, entrance to Zhukovsky, Ramenakov, Egoryevsk and other settlements.
For three years - reduction (mortality on roads - ed.) by 30%. In January, we reduce mortality by 15%. However, in absolute figures, we are still antiluters. I am sure that if we keep the pace, we can turn the situation.
Today we have 104 Multifunctional center - in each settlement within walking distance, as they require the May Decree president. The number of appeals increased in four years from 400 thousand to 12 million per year.
Crime rate in the field In 2016 decreased by 20%, below the all-Russian crime rate. We implement a very important system "Safe Region".
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It appeared in 1975: he mentioned Wallace Broker in an article on the trends in climate change as a result of the impact of man-made factors. At these trends, an intergovernmental group of climate change experts is constantly monitored. And the Kyoto Protocol, signed at the UN Conference in 1997, is designed to minimize greenhouse gas emissions by participating countries. Therefore, on the one hand, climate change on Earth is under international control.
On the other hand, global climatic processes cause questions from ordinary inhabitants of the planet, and in particular, the Moscow region. Once in the world global warming - then why is the beginning of summer in the metropolitan region such cold?
However, experts suggest that the climate is not the sphere where the surface conclusions are worth doing, despite the obvious changes.
The head of the Roshydromet Situage Center Yuri Varakin emphasizes: in order to confirm or refute the fact that certain changes occur in the climate, it is necessary to monitor the situation for years, and the climate "step" is thirty years. According to observations in thirty years, statistical indicators are displayed: the average per day or for a specific date, the average daily temperature or maximum temperature, which was observed in thirty years, etc.
Moscow and Moscow region - in the comfort zone
Moscow and Moscow region are prosperous regions compared to those places where fires, droughts or shower with floods occur right now.
"We have no natural disasters as in Central and South Asia. Every year, thousands of people die of floods, and not because the tree fell on his head, but because as a result of a tropical shower hesitates at home. Now there is an abnormal heat in Japan: several children died from a thermal impact, hundreds of people with overheating are in hospitals, "says Yuri Varakin.
However, the cold from which this summer began can be explained by the same global processes as the emersion of the elements in other places of the planet.
According to the studies of the hydrometector, the reason for the repeatability of very cold and hot periods, arid and rainy periods is that the temperature on the planet rises unevenly.
"At the Equatorial territories warming is less noticeable than on the poles, and as a result, the temperature difference between them decreases. This difference between the temperature between the equator and the pole is the basis for the occurrence of circulation in the atmosphere, "explains the director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia Roman Wilfand.
According to weather forecasters, the processes in the atmosphere slow down.
"The consequence of global warming is to slow down the movement of cyclones around the Earth. Previously, Cyclone flew over the European part through the Moscow region - and to Siberia. Two days passed - and the rain ended, and if it is cold, it became warmer after a couple of days. Now, due to the fact that a slightly wrapped climate, all in the atmosphere moves slowly. And if the cyclone got up - he will not move the month, "explains the synoptic and meteorologist Andrei Skvortsov.
Human factor
However, all climatic anomalies and natural disasters that recently occur in Russia, in addition to global, there are quite local reasons.
Pollution of rivers, dragging reservoirs, huge garbage dumps - all this contributes to the consequences of the female elements were heavier. Experts believe that sometimes the precipitation themselves are not so scary, as their consequences due to the purely economic problems and the human factor.
"For 40-50 years, the mountain rivers did not clean farmers, a refusal reservoir was stated in the Stavropol Territory. If there were no 17 solid landfills scored in Krymsk, roots and other garbage, so many people would die in 2012. The same now: a squall in the metropolitan region passed, people died - but many killed trees that certain organizations should have been cut in advance! Therefore, you do not need to dump everything in nature, "says Yuri Varakin.
He adds that under a metropolis, where heating and communications and communication are under the asphalt, the trees cannot live more than 60-70 years, they destroys the root system and the tree dries out.
Myth long-term forecasts
Weather forecasters argue that the forecasts should always be built with great care: the more prognosis time - the less its accuracy. Seven ten days - the maximum period, and in its extreme dates, the probability of error increases significantly.
"We can give a 95% acquitted forecast for three days. You can say for sure that today in the evening in Moscow, for example, there will be a thunderstorm, because the locators are not just raining, but with shower and thunder. A, let's say, on Saturday, the probability of precipitation is less. But to predict that there will be the tenth or fifteenth of July only shamans or scams, "said Yuri Varakin.
Despite this, there is a special department for long-term weather forecasts in the Hydromet Center, which is data for the season, but its work method is based on statistical modeling by analogue.
"Suppose it is necessary to develop a forecast for two months: take the results of observations at this point six months ago and on certain features are looking for what is called" Analog Analog ". That is, looking for a year in which, as we now, February was very cold, and March and April were higher than the temperature climate norm. Then look at what year was, for example, August. And on the basis of this, they predict what August will be the current one. But at the same time not taken into account, what was August or March-April on another continent or in the southern hemisphere. It is possible that these things affect the climate and with us. Therefore, such models are scientific, but we are not enough for us yet, "Alexander Sinnokov sayss them," says the weather forekit of the weather center "Phobos".
Whatever it was, according to Andrei Skvortsov, in the near future, residents of the Moscow region can still hope for good weather.
"In the coming week, we will have about the same as now, to plus 18-22 degrees, then the rain, then the sun. Cyclone is worthwhile, then it turns cold sides, then warm. But by the end of the next week, this design can collapse - and warm will come to us, "the expert notes.
Summer in 2017 did not bring any joy to citizens of Russia. All June there are strong rains, livne and even hurricanes. Abnormally Cold Summer 2017 spoils all plans. After all, in such weather it is difficult even to get home, not to go to the beach. Why was June issued so cold? Will the protracted rain stop? What to expect from July and August? What is the weather in the next months of summer?
Causes of the abnormal summer 2017
Meteorologists believe that the cold summer has come due to several reasons. The first reason - Abnormal heating of the Earth. The fact is that the mesosphere and other layers of the air shell are strongly heated. Because of this, the temperature on Earth slowly decreases. Scientists foreshadow the consequences of this weather - no global warming come, but a global cooling that can lead to the glacial period.
The second reason - Launch of the Chinese satellite called "Mo Tzu". It is the first satellite, which is intended for quantum information on the Earth. During the mission, the mechanism of quantum confusion is investigated, and test quantum teleportation is carried out. The first experiments were successful, but then something went wrong.
When the satellite begins to transmit information, negative aeroiodes increase in the atmosphere, which contribute to the deterioration of weather. On Earth, hurricanes and livni are formed. In addition, a monopoly appeared in the stratosphere. The last time they were seen in 1816, which was nunted on the year without summer. Then the main reason for the cold summer was the eruption of the tag volcano.
No matter how absurd this reason is, global professionals believe that equipment on the satellite and conducted quantum operations can actually affect the weather conditions of the planet. But they also inform that soon everything should be returned to normal, and the long-awaited summer will come.
Third reason - "North Atlantic Block". According to meteorologists, the North Atlantic Block is an anticyclone. At the average level of the troposphere, a powerful high-pressure ridge has been formed, which does not allow air masses from the west to the east. Now this block is in the UK, so only the Arctic air comes to Russia.
Each of these reasons can affect the planet as a whole in its own way, but so far the total one is observed an abnormally cold summer. It remains only to hope that July and August 2017 will bring a little more heat to citizens than June.
Forecasts for July and August 2017
According to meteorologists, the abnormal heat in the summer of 2017 will not. But in July, the thermometer scale will begin to rise. Long-term coolness will be changed by a real summer. The air temperature is expected to +26 - 29 degrees. After the holiday of Ivan, the temperature will rise by a few more degrees.
According to the national forecast, in July, Russians are waiting for rains. And indeed, in the middle of the month, the rains will return for several days. But the end of the month will please the lack of anomalous weather. It will be warm, the temperature will rise to 32 degrees.
According to the people's forecast, the weather in August will constantly fluctuate. The first week of the month will begin with rather hot weather. It is this week that there will be a peak of the heat of the abnormal summer 2017 in Moscow. Residents of Russia are advised to visit the beaches and sunbathe a bit. Meteorologists pay attention to the fact that forest fires are possible at this time.
After a week of the heat again to survive a few rainy days. With 25 degrees of heat, the temperature drops to 17 degrees. In the second half of the month, a little more heat should be expected. Augustus will end with strong shower and cold wind.
Summer 2017 will give not only torrential rains, but also beautiful summer warmth. Hot weather will be able to enjoy every resident of Russia. Do not get upset ahead of time, even an abnormally cold summer will one day end.
Spring and the long-awaited summer practically did not bring the Russians of pleasure. Plans for rest collapsed abnormal weather conditions. Invertible shower, hurricanes, a record low and on the contrary, the high temperature was introduced into confusion of inhabitants of almost all regions of Russia. What happened to the climate? What will happen summer 2018 - forecasts of weather forecasters
On May 29, 2017, the strongest storm happened in Moscow and the Moscow region. Wind speed in places reached 28 m / s. According to statistics, it is the strongest storm since 1904. As a result, 18 people died due to the element rue and 170 were injured. How did events develop?
The weather was determined by the moving cyclone who came from the Gulf of Finland. Moscow was in the warm part. The air temperature reached 25 ° C.
Together with the wind, the thunderstorm, shower and hail came. In a short period of time, most of the monthly rate of precipitation (31 mm) fell. Fixed gradins of 6mm.
In some areas, the wind blew the speed of 20 m / s. Several automatically working meteorological stations located in the central part of Moscow recorded the speed of 30 m / s.
In the evening the element calmed down.
The consequences of the Moscow Hurricane 2017
- Electricity was absent in 300 settlements (more than 16,000 buildings, 1500 cottages).
- Permanently 27,000 trees. Part grew in protected natural parks.
- Damaged roofs more than 200 multi-storey buildings.
- Damaged 2,000 vehicles.
- Strong wind partially or completely destroyed historical monuments: monastic tombstones, roofing of the Senate Palace, the church of the Nativity of the Virgin.
- The fallen trees made it difficult to move along the railway tracks.
According to the city authorities, a total of 25,000,000 rubles has been damaged.
No signs of trouble. The elements were playing in a matter of moments. What is happening resembled a large aerodynamic tubuum. Connounted by multi-storey buildings wind at high speed rushed along the long streets, avenues and highways, having demolished everything that came across.
Causes of Cold Weather in 2017
Spread the weather began in early May. The first days were marked by snowfall, and they were observed throughout Russia.
- The Perm Territory was the first to experience the whims of nature. On May 7 in Kungur, Berrytan, Kukushtan, Inychi fell 100 mm of snow. Snowfalls passed in the Sverdlovsk region.
- May 8 Snow saw in Surgut and Hao. The most difficult was the situation in Tomsk. Another morning there was a warning about the possible amplification of wind to 23m / s. Trees, trimmed wires, began a forest fire. The wind and the rain did not stop on May 9. The 11 numbers announced a storm warning.
- May 8 snow fell in Murmansk.
- 3 days (May 8-10) Rain with snow came to the capital and the area. In some places, snow cover reached 20 cm. During this time, 80% of the precipitation rate was abandoned.
- On May 9, instead of the festive salute, residents of Kaliningrad and the Kaliningrad region expected snowfall.
- With capricious weather, it was necessary to face residents of the Irkutsk region. In the morning the sun shone brightly, after the wind appeared, the rain began. By evening, the rain was stronger, the snow was added.
- On May 10, the drifts are recorded in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region.
With the beginning of the summer, the situation has practically not changed. Warm days were replaced by rain, wind and not summer cool. The temperature rarely rose above 17 ° C.
In the following months, hurricane and snowfall were not observed, but the weather did not please the Muscovites warm. In July, two cyclones were held, bringing rain and wind. Short-term warming was changed by another decrease in temperature (15-17 ° C). And so throughout the summer.
According to weather forecasters, the capricious weather is not surprised. Snow semblance noted in early June 2016. The cooling was recorded in 2001/2008. True, the temperature is fixed for a couple of degrees above.
At the same time, the Urals and Siberia suffered from abnormal heat. Thermometer columns were sometimes shown by 30-31 ° C. It provoked an increase in the level of fire hazard. For example, in the Krasnoyarsk Territory it reached the maximum fifth grade.
According to scientists, with such weather, the weakest lightning discharge could provoke large-scale fires.
In many areas, the heat sharply replaced thunderstorms, shoes, squall wind.
How to explain what happened?
Causes of abnormal weather changes
Meteorologists allocate several reasons for a sharp change of climatic conditions.
- Strong heating of the planet. It is known that the Earth's air shell has several layers. Mesosphere and several other heated too much. The result is a decrease in air temperature. According to many meteorologists, it should be not talking about global warming here, but about global cooling.
- Run satellite. The Chinese satellite called "Mao Tzu" flew into space. For what reason did he cause strongest interest? This is the first device using a new quantum data transfer technology. The first tests passed with glitter. It is later noticed, during the work of the satellite in the earth's atmosphere, the level of aeroions increases (particles of gases). They influence the weather, leading to the appearance of rains and hurricanes. Also in the stratosphere was detected by a monopolis. The last mention of them refers to 1816, marked by an eruption of a tag volcano.
- North Atlantic unit. So scientists call the anticyclone. A high pressure ridge appeared in the troposphere, which prevents free movement of air from the west to the east. Now he is observed above the territory of Great Britain, because of which the cold Arctic air comes to Russia.
The listed factors affect the weather conditions in different ways. But the result of the influence is the same - anomalous heat or cold.
Forecasts are interested in many Russians. What to wait in the future? How to go winter, spring, summer, autumn 2018? What is expected weather, familiar or abnormal?
According to meteorologists, the future winter differs little from the winter in a classical understanding. No sudden drops of temperature and strong frosts are not expected. Only on baptism and christmas, the thermometers will be devastated down.
Spring 2018, in contrast to winter, full of unpleasant surprises. The weather is expected to be unstable. Anticyclones / cyclones will replace each other unusually quickly, which will lead to alternating clear solar and frosty days.
Forecasts for the coming 2018 weather forecasters make carefully. This is especially true of summer. According to scientists, the highest temperature will come in August. In June-July, the weather will resemble the spring. Moreover, strong rains are expected with thunderstorms.
The weather is unpredictable. As can be seen in the last events, it can change almost instantly. There are many reasons and they do not always lie in natural processes, for example, overheating of the planet or the movement of cyclones / anticyclones. Often what is happening is the result of human activity (launch of satellites, cutting down forests.). It is necessary to prepare for any turn of events. It is worth remembering, any time of the year in its own way perfectly, regardless of the snowy winter it is, blooming spring, bright autumn, hot summer. According to the famous song, nature does not have bad weather. The main thing is to relate to it.
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