This increases the average temperature on Earth, which is fixed from the end of the XIX century. Over the land and ocean from the beginning of the 20th century, it rose on average by 0.8 degrees.
Scientists believe that by the end of the XXI century, the temperature can rise by an average of 2 degrees (a negative forecast for 4 degrees).
But after all, the increase is completely small, does it really affect something?
All climate change, which we feel, are the consequences of global warming. That's what happened on earth for the past century.
- All continents have become more hot days and less cold.
- The global sea level rose by 14 centimeters. The area of \u200b\u200bglaciers is reduced, they melt, water is designed, the movement of oceanic flows changes.
- Due to the fact that the temperature rose, the atmosphere began to hold more moisture. This led to more frequent and powerful storms, especially in North America and Europe.
- In some regions of the world (Mediterranean, West Africa) has become more droughts, in others (the Middle West of the United States, the North-West of Australia), on the contrary, has become less.
What caused global warming?
Additional admission to the atmosphere of greenhouse gases: methane, carbon dioxide, water vapor, ozone. They absorb long waves of infrared radiation without letting them into space. Because of this, greenhouse effect is formed on Earth.
Global warming provoked the rapid development of industry. The more emissions from enterprises, the more active the cutting down of forests (and they absorb carbon dioxide), the more greenhouse gases accumulate. And the stronger the earth is heated.
What can all this lead?
Scientists predict that further global warming can strengthen the processes destroying for people, provoke droughts, floods, the lightning spread of dangerous diseases.
- Due to the rise in sea level, many settlements in the coastal zone will be flooded.
- The effects of storms will become more global.
- Rain seasons will become longer, which will lead to more flooding.
- The duration and arid periods will increase, which threatens powerful droughts.
- Tropical cyclones will become stronger: wind speed will be higher, precipitation is rich.
- The combination of elevated temperature and drought will make it difficult for the cultivation of certain crops.
- Many types of animals will migrate to maintain the usual habitat conditions. Some of them may disappear at all. For example, the acidification of the ocean, which absorbs carbon dioxide (it is released when burning fossil fuels), kills oysters and coral reefs, worsens the conditions of the existence of predators.
Hurricanes "Harvey" and "Irma" also provoked by global warming?
According to one of the versions, warming in the Arctic is guilty in the formation of destructive hurricanes. It created an atmospheric "blockade" - slowed down the circulation of inkjet streams in the atmosphere. Because of this, powerful "low-lucrative" storms were formed, including a huge amount of moisture. But there is no sufficient evidence of this theory yet.
Many climatologists rely on the Klapairone - Clausius equation, along which the atmosphere with a higher temperature contains more moisture, and therefore conditions arise to form more powerful storms. The temperature of the water in the ocean, where "Harvey" was formed, about 1 degrees above average values.
Approximately the same scheme also formed a hurricane "Irma". The process began in warm waters off the coast of West Africa. In 30 hours, the element intensified to the third category (and then to the highest, fifth). Such a speed of formation meteorologists recorded for the first time in two decades.
Is it really waiting for us what was described in the movie "Day after tomorrow"?
Scientists believe that such hurricanes can become the norm. True, instant global cooling, as in the film, climatologists do not predict.
The first place in the top five global risks for 2017, voiced at the World Economic Forum, have already occupied extreme weather phenomena. 90% of the largest economic losses in the world today fall on floods, hurricanes, floods, storm rains, hail, drought.
Well, but why in global warming this summer in Russia was so cold?
One does not interfere. Scientists have developed a model that explains it.
Global warming led to an increase in temperature in the North Ocean area. Ice began to actively melted, the circulation of air flows changed, and seasonal atmospheric pressure distribution schemes were changed with them.
Earlier, the weather in Europe made the Arctic oscillation with the seasonal Azores (high pressure region) and an Icelandic minimum. Between the two areas, Western wind was formed, which brought warm air from the Atlantic.
But due to the increase in temperature, the difference in the pressure between the Azores maximum and the Icelandic minimum decreased. The air masses were increasingly started to move from the West to the East, but according to meridians. Arctic air can deeply penetrate the south and bring cold.
Is it worth the inhabitants of Russia to pack an alarming suitcase in case of the likeness of "Harvey"?
If there is a desire ,. Who is warned, he is armed. This summer, in many cities of Russia, hurricanes like which did not have the last 100 years.
According to Roshydromet, in 1990-2000 in our country, 150-200 dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena were recorded, which caused damage. Today their number exceeds 400, and the consequences become more destructive.
Global warming is manifested not only in the change of climate. For several years, scientists of the Institute of Oil and Gas Geology and Geophysics named after A. A. Trofimuk warn the dangers for cities and villages in the north of Russia.
Here formed huge funnels, of which the emission of explosive methane can occur.
Previously, these funnels were fighting torches: underground "storage" ice. But because of global warming they melted. The voids were filled with gas hydrates, the release of which is similar to the explosion.
Further increase in temperature can aggravate the process. It is a special danger to Yamal and sitting close to him: Nadym, Salekhard, New Urengoy.
Is it possible to stop global warming?
Yes, if you completely rebuild the energy system. Today, about 87% of global energy gives fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas).
To reduce the amount of emissions, it is necessary to use low-carbon energy sources: wind, sun, geothermal processes (occurring in the bowels of the Earth).
Another way is to develop carbon capture when carbon dioxide is extracted from emissions from power plants, oil refineries and other enterprises and pumps underground.
What prevents this to do?
For this, there are a number of reasons: political (upholding of certain companies), technological (alternative energy is considered too expensive) and others.
The most active "manufacturers" of greenhouse gases are China, USA, the countries of the European Union, India, Russia.
If emissions still succeed in significantly reduced, there is a chance to stop global warming at a mark of 1 degrees.
But if no change is, the average temperature can increase by 4 or more degrees. And in this case, the consequences will be irreversible and destructive for humanity.
Causes and consequences of global climate warming
Semenyuk Tatyana Ivanovna
student 1 course NUBIP of Ukraine, Kiev
Miskevich Stepan Vladimirovich
scientific Director, Academician of the International Academy of Ecology, Associate Professor Nubip Ukraine, Kiev
According to scientists, climate fluctuations happened constantly. There were periods of cooling, then warming. Some fluctuations continued decades, others - century. However, the peculiarity of our time is the speed of climate change, its warming. It over the past 25 years is a record.
Global climate change in the land has become hardly the most important environmental problem of modernity. Recently, this problem has been the focus of many international assembly, since it is irreversible and threatens to safely accommodate millions of people.
Regarding the likely scenarios of global warming, they were considered by the researchers about 40. The most likely cause of global climate change - the greenhouse effect - the phenomenon in the atmosphere of the Earth, in which the energy of the sun's rays, reflecting from the earth's surface, cannot return to space, because it is delayed by various gases . Such gases are called greenhouse. It is water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxides and others. Thanks to the natural greenhouse effect on the surface of the Earth, the temperature is kept at a level suitable for life.
It is possible that warming is partially natural, but the rate of the process causes the role of an anthropogenic (human) factor. People with their activities enhance the greenhouse effect due to greenhouse gas emissions. The main sources of their proceeds are industrial enterprises and transport, high soil deposit. Among greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide carbon dioxide. It is thrown into the atmosphere when burning coal, oil, gas. The methods of agriculture account for about 14% of Global greenhouse gas emissions. These sources include fertilizers, animal husbandry, rice checks, manure, burning savanna, burning agricultural waste, plowing.
In the worst forecasts, an increase in the near future of the temperature of the earth is predicted at 11 ° C, slowing the rotation of the Earth around its axis, extinct of many plant and animal species. The increase in the overall level of the World Ocean will lead to the flooding of significant coastal territories and islands. Due to changes in the course of Golfstrum in Europe, it is predicted not warming, but on the contrary, the onset of the new ice age. Global warming will have direct consequences for people's health: the cardiovascular and respiratory disease will increase, the amount of psychological disorders, injuries, which is associated with an increase in the intensity and duration of natural anomalies (floods, tornadoes, droughts, hurricanes, etc.). There will be a shortage of food and water. The American Research Organization - the Center for Global Development - created an online map (available on the Internet), reflecting the projected consequences of climate change for all countries of the world. For four parameters - cataclysms, raising sea level, reducing yields in agriculture and total risks, determined the ranking of countries. In terms of direct vulnerability to extreme weather, China, India and Bangladesh, respectively, are occupied by Extreme Weather. Djibouti, Greenland and Monaco, and Indirect - Liberia, Myanmar and Guinea-Bissau, directly suffer from raising the ocean. All Africa, Middle East, India and Latin America will suffer from the loss of fertile lands. According to the specified parameters, worst will be densely populated China, India and South African Republic. If you consider all common factors, Somalia, Burundi and Myanmar are most affected, the least - Sweden, Norway and Finland. Ukraine is located in 149 locations in direct risks and on 113 - according to the general. This is a good result for our country. But the dissemination of diseases, lack of drinking water and other factors remained without attention.
As a result of global warming, the duration of the growing upstanding cycle of crops, as well as seeding and wild herbs, will be shorter. The timing of ripening and cleaning of field crops will be earlier, which allegedly could be attributed to positive consequences. However, it is known that the performance of late crops is higher than the ranks. The reduction in the duration of the vegetation cycle will lead to a decrease in the yield of grain crops and grain quality. On the other hand, an increase in carbon dioxide concentration will lead to an increase in the vegetative mass, thereby enhancing the yield of herbs and root crops, especially sugar beet and potatoes.
Foreign specialists argue that for many types of cereal and oilseeds, fruit trees, the mass of grains, shoots and fruits will decrease by 3-17% with each degree of temperature growth. Such changes may adversely affect animal husbandry due to the reduction of the feed base. A greater danger for agriculture is an increase in air temperature to a level exceeding the optimal and permissible maximum value (above 30 ° C), in which the root plant system is unable to compensate and reimburse the moisture consumption evaporated through the leaves.
Increasing the temperature can cause such phenomena as an increase in sea level, changes in local climatic conditions, which can negatively affect the socio-economic development of many countries. Global warming can cause unpredictable changes in the environment. An increase in the average annual temperature of the Earth in recent decades is determined in the range from 6 ° C to 2-2.5 ° C. It is believed that in the second half of the twentieth century, the temperature increased in every 10 years by 0.3 ° C.
Under the influence of warming, the melting of the ice of Antarctica, the Arctic and the high mountains will begin, which will lead to raising the level of the world ocean. Global warming will create problems not only by residents of seaside countries, but also can lead to huge changes in the climate of the planet. The increase in average temperature may affect agricultural production, the crop will change and the qualitative composition of cultures, and this, in turn, will affect animal husbandry. In the energy sector, the most vulnerable will be hydropower. Also, climate warming can cause metabolism to accelerate the microorganisms, which will lead to new epidemics among people, epizooty among animals, will begin to multiply bleeding insects and pests of forests, and diseases will be spread together with them.
The world is unpleasant often affects us with new cataclysms: Everest decreases, jellyfish appears near Antarctica, and in Ukraine, the butterflies become larger, the optimal durations of planting potatoes have changed for the whole decade. For Ukraine, global warming already has its consequences: winter is becoming warmer, and the summer is often wet. Periods of so-called off-season are becoming more: spring comes very slowly, and autumn is not inferior to winter for a long time. The global climate warming becomes one of the reasons for the complication of the predictability of hazardous phenomena and a possible decrease in the period of advance anti-natural phenomena.
Twice for 3 years, Transcarpathia experienced a destructive force of flooding. Destroying tornadows, squalls, Grad were observed on Volyn, in Ternopil, Vinnitsa, Odessa and many other areas. Only over the past 20 years, the number of cities and settlements with constant manifestations of flooding has been doubled - from 265 to 541.
Ukraine refers to states that primarily feel the effects of global warming, therefore the assessment of the threats facing our state today, and the degree of readiness for Ukrainian society and the national economy. The most vulnerable to global changes in the climate of the Earth in Ukraine are water resources. It is this area that should be a priority in the fight against the prevention of the consequences of global climate change in our state. In addition, the consequence of climate change will be a general reduction in surface water levels. Already today, some unique South resort zones were under threat. The erosion of the coastal zone of the Black and Azov seas causes destruction, threatens to resort buildings, beaches, recreation areas, sanatoriums. The Black Sea level can increase by 115 cm by 2100, which will require measures to protect coastal resources. The least vulnerable to climate change will be forest resources. However, if their uncontrolled deforestation continues, especially in the West of Ukraine, the situation may become threatening, evidence of the extremely destructive floods, almost annually observed in Transcarpathia.
conclusions
Thus, the main problem of increasing temperature is a violation of environmental equilibrium on Earth as a whole, which increases largely in all types of fate of soil, water, air, plant and animal peace and, of course, a person. Global climate change on Earth will not bypass and Ukraine. They can bring extremely difficult problems to our state. Therefore, today's urgent need is the development of a national strategy for preventing the effects of global climate warming for Ukraine.
Bibliography:
- Burdyan B.G. Environment and its guard / B.G. Burdyan, V.O. Derevko, A.I. Krivulchenko. - M.: Higher School, 1993. - P. 200-230.
- Barshoy MA The abstract of lectures at the rate "Ecology and environmental protection" / M.A. Cashier, V.O. Kuchechnaya, S.A. Gensek. - M.: NKM in, 1990. - P. 215-218.
- Gubsky Yu.I. Chemical catastrophes and ecology / Yu.I. Gubsky, VB Domo-Saburov, V.V. Snatched. - K.: Health, 1993. - P. 416-425.
- Jigiri V.S. Ecology and environmental protection / V.S. Jigires. - M.: Knowledge, 2000. - P. 203-210.
- Klimenko N.A. Metrology and standardization in ecology / M.O. Klimenko, P.M. Skripchuk. - M.: RDTU, 1999. - P. 368-376.
Article on global warming. What is happening now in the world on a global scale, which consequences may be due to global warming. At times you should look at what we have led to the world.
What is global warming?
Global warming is a slow and gradual increase in the average temperature on our planet, which is just observed at present. Globally warming is a fact, arguing with which is meaningless, and that is why it is necessary to soberly and objectively approach his understanding.
Causes of global warming
According to scientific data, global warming can be caused by a variety of factors:
Volcanic eruptions;
Behavior of the World Ocean (Typhoon, Hurricanes, etc.);
Solar Activity;
Magnetic field of the Earth;
Human activity. The so-called anthropogenic factor. The idea is supported by the majority of scientists, public organizations and the media, which does not mean her unshakable truth.
Most likely, it turns out that each of these components contributes to global warming.
What is a greenhouse effect?
Greenhouse effect, watched any of us. In the greenhouses, the temperature is always higher than outside; In the closed car on a sunny day, the same is observed. On the scale of the globe is still the same. Part of the solar heat obtained by the surface of the Earth cannot disappear back into space, as the atmosphere acts on the similarity of polyethylene in the greenhouse. Do not be a greenhouse effect The average temperature of the earth's surface should be about -18 ° C, but in reality about + 14 ° C. How much heat remains on the planet directly depends on the composition of the air, which is just changing under the influence of the factors described above (the fact that global warming is caused?); Namely, the content of greenhouse gases, which include water vapor (responsible for more than 60% of the effect), carbon dioxide (carbon dioxide), methane (causes more warming) and a number of others.
Coal power plants, automotive exhausts, factory pipes and other contamination sources created by humanity, about 22 billion tons of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases per year are thrown into the atmosphere. Livestock, applying fertilizers, coal burning and other sources give about 250 million tons of methane per year. About half of all greenhouse gases thrown by humanity remained in the atmosphere. About three quarters of all anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases over the past 20 years are caused by the use of oil, natural gas and coal. Most of the rest is caused by changes in the landscape, primarily cutting down forests.
What facts prove global warming?
Level temperature
At the temperature, about 150 years are documented. It is believed that it rose somewhere on 0.6 ° C for the past century, although still a clear methodology for determining this parameter does not exist, there is also no confidence in the adequacy of the data of the age limit. It is concerned that warming has sharply since 1976, the start of the stormy industrial activity of a person and the maximum acceleration reached in the second half of the 90s. But here there are discrepancies between terrestrial and satellite observations.
Raising World Ocean
As a result of the warming and melting of glaciers in the Arctic, Antarctica and Greenland, the water level on the planet rose by 10-20 cm, possibly more.
Melting glaciers
Well, what can I say, global warming is really the cause of the melting of glaciers, and better words will confirm the photos.
The Uppsala glacier in Patagonia (Argentina) was one of the largest glaciers of South America, but now disappears 200 meters per year.
Rowen Glacier, Valais, Switzerland rose up 450 meters.
Glacier Portage in Alaska.
1875 Photo Courtesy H. Slupetzky / University of Salzburg Pasterze.
The relationship of global warming and world cataclysms
Global warming prediction methods
Global warming and its development predict mainly using computer models, based on the collected temperature data, carbon dioxide concentrations and a lot more. Of course, the accuracy of such forecasts leaves much to be desired and, as a rule, does not exceed 50%, and the further scientists are waiting, the less the likelihood of prediction is becoming.
Also, for data acquisition, ultra-low drilling of glaciers are used, sometimes samples are taken from depth to 3000 meters. This ancient ice keeps information about the temperature, solar activity, the intensity of the magnetic field of the Earth of the time. Information is used to compare with the indicators of the present time.
What measures are taken to stop global warming?
A wide consensus among climatologist scientists regarding the continuation of the growth of global temperatures led to the fact that a number of states, corporations and individuals are trying to prevent global warming or adapt to it. Many environmental organizations are taking advantage of measures against climate change, mainly consumers, but also at the municipal, regional and government levels. Some also advocate the restriction of world fossil fossil production, referring to a direct connection between fuel combustion and CO2 emissions.
To date, the Basic World Agreement on Countering Global Warming is the Kyoto Protocol (agreed in 1997, entered into force in 2005), addition to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The protocol includes more than 160 countries of the world and covers about 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
The European Union must reduce CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases by 8%, USA - by 7%, Japan is 6%. Thus, it is assumed that the main goal is to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases in the next 15 years by 5% - will be executed. But it will not stop global warming, but only a little slow down his growth. And this is at best. So, it can be concluded that serious measures to prevent global warming are not considered and not accepted.
Figures and Facts of Global Warming
One of the most visual processes associated with global warming is the melting of glaciers.
Over the past half century, the temperature in the south-west of Antarctica, on the Antarctic Peninsula, increased by 2.5 ° C. In 2002, from the Larsen Shelf Glacier with an area of \u200b\u200b3250 km and a thickness of over 200 meters located on the Antarctic Peninsula, Aisberg was covered with an area of \u200b\u200bover 2500 km, which actually means the destruction of the glacier. The whole process of destruction took only 35 days. Prior to this, the glacier remained stable for 10 thousand years, from the end of the last glacial period. Throughout the millennium, the glacier's power decreased gradually, but in the second half of the 20th century, its melting speed increased significantly. The melting of the glacier led to the ejection of a large number of icebergs (over a thousand) in the sea Weddell.
Other glaciers are destroyed. So, in the summer of 2007, the Iceberg 200 km long and 30 km width were broken from the Ross Glacier. Somewhat earlier, in the spring of 2007, an ice field of 270 km long and 40 km wide will be distinguished from the Antarctic continent. The accumulation of icebergs prevents the release of cold waters from the Ross sea, which leads to a violation of the ecological balance (one of the consequences, for example, the death of penguins, who have lost opportunities to get to the usual power sources due to the fact that the ice in the Russian sea was held longer than usual).
The acceleration of the process of degradation of permafrost is noted.
Since the beginning of the 1970s, the temperature of the multi-neuroprous soils in Western Siberia rose by 1.0 ° C, in central Yakutia - by 1-1.5 ° C. In the north of Alaska, from the mid-1980s, the temperature of the upper layer of the murmonous rocks increased by 3 ° C.
What influence global warming will have on the world around?
He will strongly affect the lives of some animals. For example, white bears, seals and penguins will be forced to change their habitats, as the current simply melts. Many species of animals and plants can simply disappear, not having to adapt to the rapidly changing habitat. Will change the weather on a global scale. An increase in the number of climatic cataclysms is expected; longer periods of extremely hot weather; There will be more rain, but the likelihood of drought will grow in many regions; The increase in the number of floods due to hurricanes and the growth of the sea level. But it all depends on the specific region.
The report of the Working Group of the Intergovernmental Commission on Climate Change (Shanghai, 2001) shows seven climate change models in the 21st century. The main conclusions made in the report - the continuation of global warming, accompanied by an increase in greenhouse gas emissions (although in some scenarios by the end of the century, as a result of the prohibitions of industrial emissions, the emission of greenhouse gases is possible); increasing surface air temperature (by the end of the XXI century, an increase in surface temperature is possible by 6 ° C); Increased ocean levels (on average, 0.5 m in a century).
The most likely changes in weather factors include more intensive precipitation; Higher maximum temperatures, an increase in the number of hot days and a decrease in the number of frosty days in almost all regions of the Earth; At the same time, in most continental districts, the heat wave will become more frequent; Reducing temperature scattering.
As a result of the changes listed, we can expect the wind enhancement and an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones (the general trend towards which is marked in the 20th century), an increase in the frequency of strong precipitation, a noticeable expansion of the zasery regions.
The Intergovernmental Commission allocated a number of areas most vulnerable to the expected climate change. This is the Sahara district, the Arctic, the Mega-Delta of Asia, small islands.
Negative changes in Europe include an increase in temperature and enhancing droughts in the south (as a result - a decrease in water resources and a decrease in hydroelectric energy, a decrease in agricultural products, deterioration of tourism conditions), reduction of snow cover and retreating mountain glaciers, increasing the risk of strong floods and catastrophic floods on rivers; Strengthening summer sediments in Central and Eastern Europe, an increase in forest fire frequency, fires on peatlands, reducing forest productivity; Increasing the instability of the soils in Northern Europe. In the Arctic - a catastrophic decrease in the area of \u200b\u200bcoating glaciation, a reduction in the area of \u200b\u200bmarine ice, strengthening the erosion of the shores.
Some researchers (for example, P. Schwartz and D. Randel) offer a pessimistic forecast, according to which already in the first quarter of the XXI century there is a sharp climate leap in an unforeseen side, and the consequence there may be an offensive of a new ice age for hundreds of years.
How does global warming affect the person?
Scare a lack of drinking water, an increase in the number of infectious diseases, problems in agriculture due to droughts. But in the long run, nothing expects anything other than the evolution. Our ancestors faced the problem more serious when, after the glacial period, the temperature rose sharply at 10 ° C, but it was precisely how it led to the creation of our civilization. And then I would still have might have hunted mammoths with spears.
Of course, this is not a reason to pollute the atmosphere than it fell, because in the short term we will have to be bad. Global warming is a question in which you need to follow the call of common sense, logic, not to come across cheap bikes and do not go on the majority, because the story knows many examples, when most were very deeply mistaken and had a lot of trouble, right up to burning great minds, which ultimately turned out to be right.
Global warming is a modern theory of relativity, the law of global gravity, the fact of rotation of the earth around the Sun, the shag-likeness of our planet during their submission to the public when the opinions are also divided. Someone exactly right. But who is?
P.S.
Additionally on the topic "Global warming".
Greenhouse gas emissions by countries that are most actively burning oil, 2000.
The forecast of the growth of arid areas caused by global warming. Modeling is performed on a supercomputer at the Institute of Space Research. Goddard (NASA, GISS, USA).
The effects of global warming.
In the XX and XXI centuries.According to scientists to the beginning, the average temperature of the earth's surface may increase from 1.8 to 3.4 ° C. In separate regions, the temperature can slightly decreased (see Fig. 1).
According to experts (IPCC) , The average temperature on the ground rose by 0.7 ° C from the second half and "A large proportion of warming that has been observed in the last 50 years caused by activities " it first of allemission causing as a result of burning, and. (see Fig.2) .
The strongest temperature fluctuations are observed in the Arctic, Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula (see cris 3). It is the late regions that are most sensitive to climate change, where water is on the border of melting and freezing. A small cooling leads to an increase in the area of \u200b\u200bsnow and ice, which reflect solar radiation well into space, thereby contributing to the further decrease in temperature. Conversely, warming leads to a reduction in snow-ice cover, a better warming of water and an intense melting of glaciers, which leads to an increase in the ocean level.
In addition to raising, the temperature rise will also lead to changes in quantity and distribution. As a result, natural cataclysms may be frequent: and others. Warming, in all likelihood, will increase the frequency and scale of such phenomena.
Another possible consequence of increasing global temperatures is to reduce crop yields in Africa, Asia and Latin America and raising crops in developed countries (due to the elongation of the growing periods).
Climate warming can lead to a displacement of the habitat of plant and animal species to the polar zone, which will increase the likelihood of extinction of small species-inhabitants of coastal zones and islands, whose existence is currently under threat of disappearance.
By 2013, the scientific community reports that the global warming process has suspended, the reasons for the cessation of temperature growth are studied.
The purpose of my work is to explore global warming and find ways to solve this problem.
Research tasks:
Explore the various theories of global warming;
Evaluate the consequences of this process;
Suggest measures to prevent global warming.
Research methods applied in my work:
Empirical
Statistical
Mathematical, etc.
Climate change on Earth.
The climate varies both as a result of natural internal processes and external environmental impacts (see Fig. 4). Over the past 2000 years, several climatic cooling and warming cycles are clearly distinguished, replacing each other.
Climatic shifts of our era.
0 - 400
. The climate was probably hot, but not dry. The temperature approximately corresponded to modern, and north of the Alps was even higher than modern. In North Africa and the Middle East reigned a woeful climate.
400 - 1000 GG
. The average annual temperature was 1-1.5 degrees below the current one. In general, the climate became more wet, and winter is colder. In Europe, cold temperatures were also associated with high humidity. The border of the spread of trees in the Alps decreased by about 200 meters, and the glaciers increased.
1000 - 1300 GG
. Epoch regarding warm climate inin- for centuries, it was characterized by soft winters, relatively warm and smooth weather.
1300 - 1850
. Periodhaving a place onduring- . This period is the most cold for the last 2 thousand years.
1850 - 20 ?? GG
"Global warming". The estimates obtained by climate models say that by the beginning the average temperature of the earth's surface may increase by 1.8 to 3.4 ° C.
Causes of global warming.
The reasons for climate change remain unknown, however, among the main external influences - the changes of the Earth's orbit, volcanic emissions and . According to direct climatic observations, the average temperatures on Earth increased, but the reasons for such an increase remain the subject of discussion. One of the most widely discussed causes is anthropogenic .
.
According to some scientists the present Global warming is explained by human activity. It is caused by anthropogenic growth of carbon dioxide concentration in the Earth's atmosphere, and, as a result, an increase in " ». The effect of its presence in reminds the effect of a greenhouse when shortwave solar radiation easily penetrates through a layer of 2 And then, reflecting from the earth's surface and turning into long-wave radiation, cannot penetrate it back and remains in the atmosphere. This layer acts as a film in the greenhouse - creates an additional thermal effect.
The greenhouse effect was found in and was first studied in year. This process, in which the absorption and emission causes the heating of the atmosphere and surface.
On Earth, the main greenhouse gases are: (responsible for about 36-70% of the greenhouse effect, excluding clouds), (CO 2 ) (9-26%), (CH 4 ) (4-9%) and (3-7%). Atmospheric concentrations Co. 2 and ch 4 increased with the beginning of the industrial revolution to the middle by 31% and 149%, respectively. According to individual research, such concentration levels are achieved for the first time in the last 650 thousand years. This is the period for which data from polar ice samples were obtained. Carbon dioxide creates 50% of the greenhouse effect, the fraction of chlorofluorocarbon accounts for 15-20%, the share of methane is 18%, nitrogen 6% (Fig. 5).
About half of all greenhouse gases received during the economic activity of humanity remain in the atmosphere. About three fourth all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, over the past 20 years, have become the result of burning fuel. At the same time, approximately half of the volume of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are associated with ground vegetation and the ocean. Most of the remaining CO 2 emissions are primarily caused with cutting of forests and a decrease in the amount of vegetation absorbing carbon dioxide.
2.2 Change solar activity.
Scientists proposed a variety of explaining changes in the temperature of the Earth. All taking climate processes on the planet depend on the activity of our luminary - the Sun. Therefore, even the smallest changes in solar activity certainly affect the weather and climate of the Earth. Allocate 11-year-old, 22-year-olds, as well as 80-90 summer (Glasberg) solar cycles. It is likely that the observed global warming is associated with the next increase in solar activity, which in the future may decline in the future. Solar activity can explain half of the temperature changes until 1970. Under the action of solar radiation, the thickness of the mountain glaciers changes. For example, in the Alps practically racesmelted the Pasterze glacier (see the sir.6). Moreover in some areas, the weather of glaciers occurs, whereas in other thickening of the glacial cover (see Fig.7). Over the past half century, the temperature in the south-west of Antarctica, on, increased by 2.5 ° C. In from the shelf area of \u200b\u200b3250 km² and a thickness of over 200 meters, located on the Antarctic Peninsula, surfed with an area of \u200b\u200bover 2500 km². The whole process of destruction took only 35 days. Prior to this, the glacier remained stable for 10 thousand years, from the end of the last glacial period. The melting of the shelf glacier led to the ejection of a large number of icebergs (over a thousand) in (see Fig. 8).
2.3 Effect of the World Ocean.
The world ocean is a huge solar energy storage. It determines the direction and speed of movement of warm ocean flows, as well as air masses on Earth, which strongly affect the climate of the planet. Currently, the nature of the heat circulation in the ocean water stroke has little studied. It is known that the average temperature of the ocean is 3.5 ° C, and the surface of the sushi is 15 ° C, so the reinforced heat exchange between the thickness of the ocean and the surface layer of the atmosphere can lead to significant climatic changes (Fig. 9). In addition, a large amount of CO 2 was dissolved in the waters of the ocean (about 140 trillion. Tons, which is 60 times more than in the atmosphere) and a number of other greenhouse gases. As a result of various natural processes, these gases can flow into the atmosphere, significantly influence the climate of the Earth.
2 .4 Volcanic activity.
Volcanic activity is also a source of admission to the atmosphere of land aerosols of sulfuric acid and a large amount of carbon dioxide, released during volcanic eruptions. Large eruptions are originally accompanied by cooling due to the flow of ash and sulfuric acid and particles of soot. Subsequently, the CO 2 arrived during the eruption causes an average annual temperature on Earth. The subsequent long-term decrease in volcanic activity contributes to an increase in the transparency of the atmosphere, and leads to an increase in temperature on the planet. This can significantly affect the climate of the Earth.
3. Results research of global warming.
When studying global warming with different meteorological stations of the world, four rows of global temperatures starting with The second half of the XIX century (see Fig. 10). They are visible two distinct episodes of global warming. One of them is for the period from 1910 to 1940. During this time, the average temperature on Earth rose by 0.3-0.4 ° C. Then, for 30 years, the temperature did not grow and, perhaps, even slightly decreased. And since 1970, the new episode of warming began, which continues until now. During this time, the temperature rose by another 0.6-0.8 ° C. Thus, in general, in the 20th century, the average global surface air temperature on Earth rose by about one degree. This is quite a lot, because even when leaving the glacial period, warming is usually all over4 ° C.
Studying changes in the level of the World Ocean, scientists found that the average sea level is growing over the past 100 years at an average rate of about 1.7 mm / year, which is much larger than the average speed over the past few thousand years. Since 1993, the Global Sea level began to rise by an accelerated pace - about 3.5 mm / year (see Engineering). The main reason for raising the sea level today is an increase in the heat-containing of the ocean, which leads to its expansion. It is expected that in the future, a more significant role in accelerating the rise of the sea level, ice melts will play.
The total volume of glaciers on Earth is rather sharply reduced. Glaciers gradually decreased throughout the last century. But the reduction rate has noticeably increased in the last decade (see Fig. 12). Only a few glaciers still grow. The gradual disappearance of glaciers will be a consequence of not only the level of world ocean, but also the emergence of problems with the provision of fresh water of some areas of Asia and South America.
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There is a theorythat It is often used by opponents of the concepts of anthropogenic global warming and greenhouse effect. They argue that modern warming is a natural yield from the small glacial period of the XIV-XIX centuries, which will lead to the restoration of the temperatures of the small climatic optimum of the X-XIII centuries.
Global warming can not happen everywhere. According to the hypothesis of climatologists, M. Yingga and W. Donna, there is an oscillatory process in which the ice age is generated by the warming of the climate, and the output from the glacial period is cooling. This is due to the fact that when the icy polar beams are thawing, the amount of precipitation increases in polar latitudes. In the future, there is a decrease in temperature in the internal hemispheres of the northern hemisphere, followed by the formation of glaciers. When freezing of ice polar caps, glaciers in the deep areas of continents, without getting enough to feed in the form of precipitation, begin to deteriorate.
According to one of the hypotheses, global warming will lead to a stop or serious weakening. This will cause a significant drop in the average temperature in (while the temperature in other regions is boosting, but not necessarily in all), since Golf Stream warms the continent due to the transfer of warm water from the tropics.
5. The consequences of global warming.
Currently, climate warming factor is viewed along with other well-known risk factors for health - smoking, alcohol, redundant food, low physical activity and others.
5.1 Distribution of infections.
As a result of climate warming, the increase in precipitation is expected, expanding the areas of wetlands and an increase in the number of flooded settlements. The area of \u200b\u200bsettlement of water bodies of mosquito larvae is constantly increasing, including 70% of water bodies are infected with larvae of malaria mosquitoes. According to WHO experts, an increase in temperature by 2-3 ° C leads to an increase in the number of people who can get the malaria by about 3-5%. The appearance of mosquitoes ("mosquito") diseases, such as the fever of Western Nile (LZN), dengue fever, yellow fever. An increase in the number of days with high temperatures leads to the activation of ticks and the increase in the incidence of infections, they are transferred.
5.2. Melting of permafrost.
In the thickness of frozen rocks, gas was installed - methane. It causes an incomparable greater greenhouse effect than CO2. If methane, when melting, the permafrost will be produced into the atmosphere, climate change will be irreversible. The planet will become suitable for cockroaches and bacteria. In addition, dozens of cities built on permafrost, just drown. The percentage of deformities of buildings in the north is already very big and grows all the time. Due to the melting of the eternal land, it will be impossible to produce oil, gas, nickel, diamonds and copper. With global warming with increasing temperature, new flashes of viruses will arise, it becomes available to bacteria and mushrooms that decompose methane.
5.3 Anomalous natural phenomena.
One of the consequences of climate change Scientists consider an increase in the number of such abnormal weather events such as floods, storms, typhoon, hurricanes. Rosts of repeatability, intensity and duration of droughts in some regions will lead to an increase in fire hazard in forest arrays, a noticeable expansion of drains and desert land. In other regions of the Earth, the winds can be expected and an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones can be expected, an increase in the frequency of strong precipitation due to the flow of floods, which will lead to the oveurgement of the soil, which is dangerous for agriculture.
5.4 Increased ocean level.
In the northern seas, the number of glaciers will decrease (for example, in Greenland), which will lead to the rise in the world's ocean. Then will be under water coastal territories, the level of which is lower than the sea level. For example, the Netherlands, which, under the onslaught of the sea, only with the help of damaster maintain their territory; Japan, in which many production facilities are located in such areas; Many islands in the tropics can be flooded with the ocean.
5.5 Economic consequences.
The costs associated with climate change are growing together with the temperature. The strongest storms and floods are causes of losses in billions of dollars. Extreme weather conditions create emergency financial problems. For example, after a record in terms of hurricane indicators in 2005, a 15-percent fall of revenues occurred a month after a storm, and material damage was estimated at $ 135 billion. Consumers regularly face rising food prices and energy, along with an increase in the cost of medical services and real estate. Due to the increase in the area of \u200b\u200barid lands, the production of food is under threat, and some groups of the population are at risk remain hungry. Today, India, Pakistan and Africa countries, located south of the Sahara, suffer from lack of food, and experts predict an even greater reduction in the number of precipitation in the coming decades. Thus, it is estimated that a completely unexpeted picture is evaporated. An intergovernmental group of climate change experts assumes that by 2020, 75-200 million Africans may experience a lack of water, and the number of agricultural products on the continent is reduced by 50 percent.
5.6 Loss of biological diversity and ecosystem destruction.
By 2050, humanity risks to lose as many as 30 percent of animal and plants species, if the average temperature rises by 1.1-6.4 degrees Celsius. Such disappearance will occur due to loss of habitat by desertification, deforestation and warming ocean, as well as due to the inability to adapt to what is happening climatic changes. Wildlife researchers noted that some more stable species migrated on the pole in order to "support" the habitat needed. When plants and animals disappear as a result of climate change, human food, fuel and revenues will also disappear. Scientists already observe the discoloration and death of coral reefs due to the warming of water in the ocean, as well as the migration of the most vulnerable species of plants and animals to other areas due to the increase in air and water temperature, as well as due to the melting of glaciers. Changing climatic conditions and a sharp increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is a serious test for our ecosystems.
6. Climate change areas.
The Intergovernmental Commission allocated a number of areas that are most vulnerable to the expected climate change:
In the area, the Mega-Delta of Asia, small islands will enhance the droughts and an increase in desertification;
In Europe, the increase in temperature will lead to a decrease in water resources and generation of hydroelectric energy, reduce agricultural products, deterioration of tourism conditions, reduce snow cover and retreating mountain glaciers, strengthening summer sediments and increase risk of strong and catastrophic on rivers;
In Central and Eastern Europe there will be an increase in the frequency of forest fires, fires on peatlands, reducing forest productivity; Increasing the instability of the soils in Northern Europe.
In the Arctic - a catastrophic decrease in the area of \u200b\u200bcover glaciation, reducing the area of \u200b\u200bmarine ice, the strengthening of the shores;
In the south-west of Antarctic, on, the temperature increased by 2.5 ° C. The mass of the ice of the Antarctic decreases with accelerating pace;
In Western Siberia since the beginning of the 1970s, the temperature of the multi-neuroprumous soils increased by 1.0 ° C, in Central Yakutia - by 1-1.5 ° C in the northern regions - the Arkhangelsk region, the Komi republic did not warmly;
In the north, from the mid-1980s, the temperature of the upper layer of the murge rocks increased by 3 ° C, and the gracious California was somewhat cold;
In the southern regions, in particular, in Ukraine, also somewhat cold.
7. Measures to prevent global warming.
To stop GrowthCO 2. It is necessary to replace the traditional types of energy based on the combustion of carbon raw materials, to non-traditional. It is necessary to increase the production of solar panels, wind turbines, construction of tidal power plants (PES), geothermal and hydroelectric power plants (hydropower plants).
The problem of global warming should be solved at the international level, in accordance with the Unified International Program drawn up with the participation of the governments of all countries and the world community, under a single international leadership. To date, the main global agreement on countering global warming is (agreed in, entered into force in). The protocol includes more than 160 countries of the world and covers about 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions.:
The European Union must reduce CO 2 emissions and other greenhouse gases by 8%.
USA is 7%.
Japan is 6%.
The protocol provides for the cooting system for greenhouse gas emissions. Its essence is that each of the countries receive permission to release a certain amount of greenhouse gases. Thus, it is planned to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the next 15 years by 5%.
Since the implementation of this program will be calculated for many years, it needs to designate the steps of its execution, their deadlines, provide for the control and reporting system.
Russian scientists are also developing weapons against global warming. This is an aerosol of sulfur compounds, which is supposed to be sprayed in the lower layers of the atmosphere. The method developed by Russian scientists provides spraying with airplanes in the lower layers of the stratosphere (at an altitude of 10-14 kilometers from the ground) of the thin layer of aerosol (0.25-0.5 micron) from various sulfur compounds. Sulfur drops will reflect solar radiation.
According to the calculations of scientists, if one million tons of aerosol is sprayed over the ground, this will allow 0.5-1 percent to reduce solar radiation, and the air temperature is 1-1.5 degrees Celsius.
The amount of sprayed aerosol must be constantly maintained, because over time, sulfur compounds will fall on the ground.
Conclusion.
In the study of global warming, I concluded that over the past 150 years there is a change in the thermal regime by about 1-1.5 degrees. It has its own regional and temporary scales.
Many scientists believe that the main reason that may lead to these processes is an increase in CO 2 (carbon dioxide) in. It is called "greenhouse gas". Increased content in such gases as Freon and a number of halogen gases are also considered to be a consequence of human economic activity and the cause of ozone holes.
Studies have shown: To avoid a global catastrophe, it is necessary to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere.
I believe that the most important ways to solve this problem are: the introduction of environmentally friendly, small and waste-free technologies, the construction of wastewater treatment facilities, the rational placement of production and the use of natural resources.
I propose to use biogas technology.
Biogas - product decomposition of organic substances of different origin (manure, waste industry, other biological waste).
Biogas is 50-70% from methane (CH 4) and by 30-50% of carbon dioxide (CO 2). It can be used as fuel for heat and electricity. Biogas can be used in boiler installations (for heat generation), in gas turbines or piston engines. Usually they work in cogeneration mode - on the production of electricity and heat (see Fig. 13).
Raw materials for biogas installations are available in sufficient quantities at wastewater treatment stations, in garbage dumps, on pig farms, poultry farms, in cowshes. It is agricultural enterprises that can be considered the main consumer of biogas technologies. From ton of manure, 30-50 m3 biogas with methane content is obtained. In fact, one cow is capable of obtaining a 2.5 cubic meter of gas per day. From one cubic meter of biogas, you can develop about 2 kW of electricity. Plus, organic fertilizer is produced, which can be used in agricultural economy.
Principle of installation:
From livestock buildings 1 Moviemo method of manure moves to the receiving capacity 2 where raw materials are prepared for downloading to recycling reactors. Then it is fed to the biogas 3 where biogas is released, which is supplied to the gas distribution column 5 . It is separated carbon dioxide and methane. Wastes are nitrogen fertilizers, they are exported to the fields 10. CO 2 goes to the production of biovitamin concentrate, and CH4 in the gas generator 9 where electricity produces with which the pump works 11 feeding water for irrigation of fields and greenhouses 13 .
In the energy balance of European countries, biogas occupies 3-4%. In Finland, Sweden and Austria, thanks to the state stimulation of bioenergy, its share reaches 15-20%. China has 12 million small "family" biogas plates supplying gas mainly kitchen stoves. This technology is distributed in India, in Africa.In Russia, there are few installations for biogas.
Bibliography.
Journal "Chemistry and Life" №4, 2007
Kriscunov E.A. Ecology (textbook), M. 1995.
Pravda.ru.
Revich B.A. "Russia in the surrounding world: 2004"
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Http://www.priroda.su/item/389
Http://www.climatechange.ru/node/119
Http://energyland.info.
In the atmosphere as a result of burning fossil fuels from 1800 to 2007 in billion tons.
Fig.3 For the period from 1979 (left) to 2003 (right), an area covered with arctic ice has significantly decreased.
Fig.4 Climatic reconstruction for the period of 1000-2000. n. e., a small glacial period is marked
Fig. 5. The proportion of anthropogenic gases in the atmosphere during the greenhouse effect.
Fig.6 photos of the Mavel Glacier Pasterze in Austria in 1875 (left) and 2004 (right).
Fig.7 Map of changes in the thickness of mountain glaciers since 1970. Thinking in orange and red colors, thickening - in blue.
Fig.8. The melting of the shelf glacier.
Fig.9 Schedule for changing the ocean heat generation for 700 meter water layer since 1955. Seasonal changes (red dots), average annual (black line)
Fig.10. The study of global warming on different meteorological stations.
Fig. 11 schedule changes in average annual measurements of the global sea level. Red: sea level since 1870; Blue color: According to sensors, tides, black: based on satellite observations. On the inset of the average global increase in sea level since 1993 - the period during which the rise in the sea level accelerates.
Fig. 12 Schedule of volumetric decline (in cubic miles) glaciers around the world.
Fig. 13 Bigase Installation Scheme.
This increases average temperature on Earth Due to greenhouse gas emissions: methane, carbon dioxide, water vapor. Part of the scientists believe that these are wine industries: production and cars generate emissions. They absorb some of the infrared radiation emanating from the Earth. Due to the reduced energy, the atmosphere layer and the surface of the planet is heated.
Global warming will lead to the melting of glaciers, and they, in turn, will raise the level of the world's ocean. Photo: Depositphotos.
However, there is another theory: global warming is a natural process. After all, nature itself also produces greenhouse gases: during the eruption of volcanoes, there is a colossal emission of carbon dioxide, permafrost, and more precisely, the soil in the regions of permafrost allocates methane and so on.
The problem of warming was spoken in last century. In theory it leads to the flooding of many coastal cities, to strong storms, abundant precipitation and long droughtsWhat will be wrapped by problems with agriculture. And the mammals will migrate, and some species may disappear in the process.
Is there warming in Russia?
Scientists are still arguing whether warming began. Meanwhile, Russia is heated. According to Roshydromet Center from 2014, the average temperature in the European territory is raised faster than others. And this happens in all seasons, except for winter.
The temperature is most quickly (0.052 ° C / year) the temperature in the North and European territory of Russia increases. Then follow eastern Siberia (0.050 ° C / year), the average Siberia (0.043), the Amur region and Primorye (0.039), Baikalia and Transbaikalia (0.032), Western Siberia (0.029 ° C / year). Of the federal districts, the highest rates of temperature increase in the central, smallest - in Siberian (respectively 0.059 and 0.030 ° C / year). Image: wwf.
"Russia remains that part of the world where the climate warming during the 21st century will significantly exceed the average global warming," the report says in the report.
Many scientists believe that it is more correct to track global warming on the world Ocean. Judging by our seas, it began: the average temperature of the Black Sea grows by 0.08 ° C per year, the Azov Sea - 0.07 ° C. In the White Sea, the temperature in the year is growing at 2.1 ° C.
Despite the fact that the temperature indicators of water and air are growing, experts are in no hurry to call it with global warming.
"The fact of global warming has not yet been established reliably," says Evgeny Zubuk, the associate professor of the School of Natural Sciences of the Far Eastern Federal University. - change in temperature - the result of the simultaneous action of several processes. Some lead to warming, others to coolness. "
One of these processes is a decline in solar activity, which leads to a significant cooling. Solar spots will be thousands of times less than usual, this happens once every 300-400 years. This phenomenon is called minimal solar activity. According to the forecasts of scientists from Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov, the decline will continue from 2030 to 2040.
Was the movement of the belts?
Climatic belts - areas with sustainable weather, elongated horizontally. Their seven: Equatorial, tropical, moderate, polar, subequatorial, subtropical and subepolar. Our country is large, it is obscured by arctic, subarctic, moderate and subtropical.
Earth climatic belts on B. P. Alisov. Image: kliimavöötmed
"There is a probability of movement of the belts and, moreover, the offset is already now," said Evgeny Zubko's expert. What does it mean? Because of the displacement, the warm edges will become colder and vice versa.
Green grass will grow in Vorkuta (Arctic belt), winter will be warmer, summer periods - hotter. At the same time, in the area of \u200b\u200bSochi and Novorossiysk (subtropics) grinds. Winters will not be so soft as now, when the snowball and children are allowed not to go to school. Summer will not be so long.
"The brightest example of the shift of the belts is" the offensive "desert," says the climatologist. This increase in the area of \u200b\u200bthe desert due to human activity is an intense lace breaking. The inhabitants of such places have to move, cities disappear, as well as local fauna.
At the end of the last century, the Aral Sea was placed, located in Kazakhstan and in Uzbekistan. His fast-growing desert Aralkum is coming. The fact is that in Soviet times from two rivers that feed the sea, a lot of water was merged for cotton plantations. It gradually dried most of the sea, fishermen lost their job - the fish disappeared.
Someone left his homes, some inhabitants remained, and they have to fall out. The wind raises from the naked bottom salt and poisonous substances, which negatively affects the health of people. Therefore, the Aral Sea is trying to restore.
Every year 6 million hectares are desertified. For comparison, it is like all forests of the Republic of Bashkortostan. According to UN estimates, the damage from the offensive of the desert is approximately $ 65 billion a year.
Why are the belt moving?
"The climatic belts are shifted due to the cutting of forests and changing river beds," says the climatologist Evgeny Zubuk.
Water Code of the Russian Federation prohibits artificially changing the channel without appropriate permits. The river areas can fly, and then she will perish. But inconsistent changes of the beds still occur, sometimes at the initiative of local residents, sometimes - for the organization of some business near the reservoir.
What to talk about cutting down. Russia annually destroys 4.3 million forest hectares, calculated the Institute of World Resources. More than the entire land fund of the Kaluga region. Therefore, Russia is included in the top 5 world leaders in deforestation.
For nature and man, this is a catastrophe: when destroying forest covers, animals and plants die, melting rivers flowing nearby. The forests absorb harmful greenhouse gases, cleaning the air. Without them, nearby towns will be choking.
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