After the rocket launch Falcon Heavy two weeks ago, the return to launching a conventional Falcon 9 rocket may have seemed disappointing. But SpaceX's next launch, scheduled for early morning on Wednesday, deserves a closer look. The brief launch window opens (and closes) at 9:17 a.m. ET on Wednesday, and the weather forecast at the launch site at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California is 90 percent favorable.
Wednesday's main mission is the launch of the PAZ satellite into low Earth orbit. It is a synthetic aperture radar satellite that can generate images of the Earth's surface from high resolution, regardless of whether the Earth is covered by clouds. The customer is Hisdesat, a Spanish commercial satellite company.
The Falcon 9 rocket will also carry a second payload: two experimental non-geostationary orbiting satellites Microsat-2a and -2b. These are two satellites that SpaceX has previously said will be used in the first phase of broadband testing as part of an ambitious plan to eventually provide global satellite Internet. Further satellites will be launched in stages, with SpaceX aiming to reach full capacity, with more than 4,000 satellites, in 2024.
One of the most intriguing aspects of Wednesday's launch will emerge minutes after liftoff, when the nose cone separates from the top of the rocket. Although SpaceX doesn't talk about it publicly, the fairing is updated version compared to previous ones, and the company will make efforts to return them after landing in the Pacific Ocean.
As part of this effort, SpaceX will send a vessel called Mr. Steven" into the area where the fairing halves must return, trying to catch at least one of them making a controlled descent, or, failing that, lift them out of the ocean after they splash down. SpaceX has also not announced the vessel's destination, but in recent weeks in social networks photographs appeared. Presumably, the company will share additional information if the recovery is successful.
So a lot will happen during the early morning launch. Since this is a previously flown stage (first launched on August 24, 2017), SpaceX will not attempt to recover it for a third flight. The webcast is scheduled to go live about 15 minutes before the launch window opens on Wednesday.
The past year has been difficult for SpaceX. In general, the company has more successful moments, but a rocket explosion is, of course, a huge problem. Both for the reputation of SpaceX and for the entire rocket and space industry. Nevertheless, the company is not afraid of difficulties and is slowly (or not even slowly) moving forward.
Fortunately, the company was able to achieve many of its goals, including the return of the first stage of the launch vehicle. The steps were repeatedly placed both on a platform on solid ground and on a floating platform. SpaceX needs all this to reduce the cost of launches - according to Elon Musk, if rocket elements are reused, the cost of launching a payload can be reduced by 30% or even more. This year Musk plans to do even more than last year. What plans does the company have? Let's get a look. 
New Falcon 9 launches
Of course, without launching rockets into space, SpaceX's work loses all meaning. Therefore, the main problem that needs to be solved in soon- resumption of Falcon 9 launches. Musk is not used to shelving, and another launch is planned for this month. The company's rocket should deliver commercial Iridium-1 satellites into Earth orbit. Iridium plans to send ten devices into space at once, which will significantly improve the network performance of one of the most famous telecom operators.According to the contract, SpaceX, subject to the successful launch of all satellites into orbit, should receive almost half a billion US dollars. More precisely, $492 million. At first, satellite launches will be carried out every three months, and then, if everything goes according to plan, then every two. Despite the Falcon 9 explosion, which destroyed commercial cargo, SpaceX has no problems with orders so far.
The company, by the way, was able to identify the problem that led to the explosion. It turned out that the cause was a crack in the helium supply system to the liquid oxygen tank. As a result, liquid oxygen passed into the solid phase. As a result, all this led to a domino effect, failures of a number of systems that caused the explosion. In November, Musk said the following: “I think we have figured out what happened. The most interesting thing is that nothing like this has ever happened in rocket science.” “The problem is complex, it includes liquid helium, carbon composites and solid oxygen. The oxygen has cooled so much that it has turned into a solid phase,” Musk said.
Due to the accident, the deployment of the Iridium satellite constellation had to be postponed to 2018. But overall, so far so good. Of course, there were some troubles. So, Inmarsat decided to launch its satellite not from Falcon 9, but to use the Ariane 5 rocket. If unsuccessful launches continue, this could cost SpaceX millions of dollars.
Re-sending the returned stage into space
Several Falcon 9 stages returned from space are stored in a SpaceX hangar. Some of them, according to Musk, are suitable for re-launch, others are not, they are only suitable for study in order to improve the design of the system. However, the company plans to relaunch the previously used first stage of the rocket early this year. And this will not be a test run. Using the recovered stage, SpaceX will send a satellite to another telecom operator, SES. It was with this company that SpaceX began working in 2013, and now SES is supporting the partner with the transition to the next stage of work.It is clear that the company is not doing this out of pure altruism. The fact is that the launch of Falcon 9 with the stage returning to Earth will cost SES $40 million instead of $60 million. Saving 20 million is serious. True, this is a preliminary assessment carried out by third-party specialists. There has been no official statement from SpaceX on this matter yet.
From the very beginning, Elon Musk has focused on making launches cheaper by reusing stages returned to Earth. Moreover, he claims that the restored stages can be used dozens or even hundreds of times. However, the second option will be available after finalizing the returned element. However, if a company manages to use its stage at least twice in a row, this will already be an achievement, and a very significant one.
In addition, Musk's plans for the development of Mars depend entirely on the success of the implementation of the plan to reuse the stages of launch vehicles. Otherwise, the cost of the colonization project (already very expensive) will increase significantly.
Falcon Heavy super-heavy rocket
Yes, its launch is also scheduled for this year. Load capacity new rocket-carrier is about 54.4 tons. This is twice the payload capacity of the Delta IV Heavy. Falcon Heavy is planned to be able to deliver about 54 tons to low reference orbit, up to 21.2 tons to geotransfer orbit, and up to 13.2 tons to Mars. Now the assembly of the carrier is coming to an end.The launch of this rocket has already been shown on video.
It is clear that this is just a model, but it allows you to get an idea of the process. In order to launch, the company needs to carefully prepare the entire system of the LC-39 complex. The Saturn V rocket that sent Apollo 11 to the Moon was also launched here.
The cost of launching this launch vehicle is estimated by company experts at approximately 90 million US dollars. The SLS launch vehicle, currently being developed by Boeing, can lift about 70 tons into orbit, but it costs much more to launch. The operating costs of launching this launch vehicle could be about $2 billion. It makes sense that if SpaceX goes well, the commission that monitors NASA's spending might inquire about the purpose of continuing SLS development with such a high cost of launching a rocket. The test launch of SLS will take place no earlier than the end of 2018.
Delivery of astronauts aboard the ISS
NASA hoped that this year it would be able to send people aboard the ISS without Russian help. For this, it was planned to use the Dragon V2 and CST-100 (Starliner) spacecraft being developed by SpaceX and Boeing. The contracts are quite large - for Boeing it is 4.2 billion dollars and for SpaceX - 2.6 billion dollars.Unfortunately, not everything went as NASA hoped. Both Boeing and SpaceX encountered technical difficulties. The problems are being overcome little by little, but all this is not a matter of one month.
Now the launches of ships with astronaut teams have been postponed to May and August 2018 (for Dragon V2 and Starliner, respectively). But these are already regular “flights”. But trial launches must be carried out this year, otherwise almost all deadlines will be missed. For SpaceX, a contract with NASA means receiving funds for work and its very existence, so Elon Musk is trying to do everything to ensure that everything goes according to plan.
What about Mars?
Yes, everything that Musk is doing now to develop SpaceX is intended to “pave the road” to Mars. SpaceX must receive funds to implement its Martian plans, and without a clear business model this is impossible. It is impossible to implement the Mars program on your own, without outside contributions.However, at the same time as commercial launches and work with NASA, the company is developing a new type of engine for its rocket. It's about about Raptor - powerful engines for next generation rockets. Not much information can be found about the Raptor right now. It is true that these particular engines are three times more powerful than the Merlin that powers the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy. Earlier, Elon Musk reported that this engine will develop a thrust of up to 230 tons.
The operation of this engine consists of two stages. The first is the combustion of the fuel mixture (fuel and oxidizer) in pre-combustion chambers. The second is the injection of fuel into the main combustion chamber of the engine due to the hot gases formed during the first stage high pressure. It is planned to use liquid oxygen and methane as fuel.
RS-25 engine with pre-combustion chambers being tested. This engine was installed in the Shuttle. Raptor will work on the same principle.
Next year, SpaceX plans to send an unmanned system to Mars using the Falcon Heavy launch vehicle. This is necessary so that the company’s specialists can draw conclusions about the possibility of delivering cargo to Mars. If SpaceX succeeds in achieving its plans, it will become the first private company, whose spacecraft will land on the surface of another planet.
Perhaps Red Dragon will also be used by NASA as one of the tools for implementing the Mars Sample Return mission with the delivery of Martian soil samples to Earth. According to preliminary estimates, Red Dragon will be able to soft landing to the surface of Mars with approximately 2 tons of payload. This is more than double the current record set by NASA's Sky Crane, which lowered the 899 kg Curiosity rover to the surface of the red planet in August 2012. The larger volume and mass of the payload will allow the collected samples to be transferred in Earth orbit (the original Mars Sample Return scenario included the transfer of samples in Martian orbit), which will reduce the potential risks and cost of the mission.
What could go wrong?
The main threat to SpaceX's plans is problems with Falcon 9 launches, which will entail the cancellation of a number of contracts and a cautious attitude of partners in the future. Consequently, this will cause a decrease in the level of financial revenues. And without this, SpaceX will not be able to implement its plan for the exploration of Mars - after all, as mentioned above, this requires funds, and considerable ones.One of the main tasks for Musk is the creation of the so-called interplanetary transport system ITS (Interplanetary Transport System). The main components of this system are the following: a return launch vehicle for launch from Earth, an interplanetary spacecraft to carry cargo and people to Mars and return them to Earth, plus a tanker ship for refueling spaceship in Earth orbit
👁 1 192
Recently, Elon Musk sarcastically stated on Twitter that SpaceX launches are so much cheaper than Boeing/Lockheed services that you could build a plane with the difference.
In 2014, the Government Accountability Office released a report estimating the cost of secret US Air Force satellite programs launched exclusively by ULA. Due to the lack of transparency in pricing, it was difficult to match the price tags with the offer from SpaceX.
The government pays ULA a fixed amount, regardless of what was used at launch - be it , or . In addition, there is the EELV Launch Capability (ELC) contract, under which ULA receives $860 million annually to ensure access to space even if there are no launches. ULA also received a total of $5 billion for other expenses related to rocket production equipment.
ULA's monopoly ended when SpaceX began competing to launch payloads for national security. The first launch took place in May of this year, commissioned by the National Reconnaissance Office, in the form of the secret satellite NROL-76. When compared directly to ULA, the government estimates that SpaceX's launch costs are significantly lower.
For example, 14 months ago, the US Air Force awarded a contract to SpaceX worth $83 million to launch , and in March 2017 another contract was won to launch another satellite, GPS 3, worth $96.5 million. This full cost launch, which the government will pay for and this does not compare with the $422 million per launch that is included in the Air Force's 2020 budget.
Blue Origin
The goal of company founder Jeff Bezos is not to profit from launching commercial satellites, but to enable millions of people to live and work in space; he also has no ambitions to launch government or military satellites and plans only to supply his BE-4 engines for the new launch vehicle ( RN) ULA. The BE-4 rocket engine, powered by a mixture of liquid oxygen and liquefied natural gas, began development in 2011 and more than $1 billion has already been spent on development. The thrust of the BE-4, at the request of ULA, was increased to 550 tf.
The same engine is planned to be used on the first stage of the new Blue Origin rocket and the first launch will take place no earlier than 2020. The launch price of the New Glenn (NG) is not yet known, but we can expect that the cost will be comparable to the Falcon 9, and the payload will be 13 tons per (GPO).
Taking into account the experience of suborbital launches of the vertical takeoff and landing system, when the same stage was launched 5 times without significant modifications, this experience will allow us to practice the landing of the first stages within several years after the first launch of NG.
The launch price for government and commercial workloads is very different. Musk’s pressure at the hearings, with a proposal to ban Atlas 5 flying using Russian RD-180s, and to bury the completely unprofitable Delta IV, bore fruit. They decided to abandon the engine and allocated significant funds to create a replacement. ULA, choosing between the AR-1 and BE-4 for its new Vulcan rocket, leaned in favor of the BE-4.
Not only is the AR-1 several years behind in development, but it is also not intended to be reusable, and the development company is relying mainly on government funds, unlike the completely private BE-4.
ULA presented the concept of recovering first stage engines and avionics SMART (Sensible, Modular, Autonomous Return Technology). The engines separate from the booster after the first and second stages separate. The inflatable protection is deployed, which helps slow down the fall of the engine block below supersonic speed, and then the block, lowered by parachute, is rescued by helicopter in the air.
Without increasing the frequency of launches, the company does not see the feasibility of reusability. The overall savings will be up to 30 percent, but significant funds will be required to develop the technology. ULA will move in this direction, but the first test flight will not take place until 2024.
In response to the uproar over launch prices, ULA created an Atlas 5 rocket builder website, rocketbuilder.com. It is stated that the light rocket costs $109 million, and the heaviest one with five boosters, capable of launching 8856 kg to the GPO, costs $157 million. Indirectly about high price launches can be indicated by the fact that since 2010, out of 52 launches, only 4 were commercial. ULA CEO Tory Bruno emphasized that in just a few years it was possible to reduce the minimum price tag from $191 million to $109 million.
European Space Agency (ESA)
The European Space Agency now uses launch vehicles and for launches, the components of which are produced in a whole list of EU countries and are quite generously subsidized. At the same time, the commercial launch of Ariane 5 costs $180-240 million, but it launches 2 heavy satellites at a time (10 tons in total), due to which it is in great demand on the market.
The design, which is the successor to the current Ariane 5, was introduced in 2012 with a planned first launch in 2020. The original design featured 3 solid rocket boosters on the first stage and one on the second stage to deliver 6,500 kg to the GPO. The development was sponsored by ESA (the project was estimated at 4 billion euros - now reduced to 2.4 billion euros), and Airbas Safran Launchers (ASL) was chosen as the main contractor. The design was subsequently revised to be more cost effective due to the expansion of SpaceX, which directly competes for commercial launches. The final design involves 2 versions: Ariane-62 and Ariane-64 with two and four solid rocket boosters. The price and payload of the GPO are respectively 5,000 kg for 75 million euros and 10,500 kg for 90 million euros. The reduction in startup costs should also occur due to the reorganization of production, the reduction of the current 8,000 personnel by 30%, the widespread use of 3D printing and the abandonment of vertical assembly. The rocket will be assembled horizontally at Le Mirabeau and then transported to French Guiana for integration with solid rocket boosters and payload installation. By 2023, the company plans to reach a level of 11-12 launches per year.
ESA allocated the first tranche of 80 million euros for the creation of a new rocket engine reusable “Prometeus”, powered by methane + liquid oxygen fuel pair. The cost of one engine will be 1 million euros - only a tenth of the cost of the current Vulcain 2 hydrogen first stage engine for Ariane 5. Firing tests will begin in 2020, with the first flight in 2030.
Roscosmos
The price varied depending on market conditions in order to remain competitive. So, in 2014 the cost was $115 million, but now it has been reduced to $70 million, as opposed to the Falcon 9 with its fixed price of $62.5 million.
Despite the fact that Proton will fly until 2025, it was decided to create cheaper modifications Proton Medium and Proton Light by 2020. It was decided to lengthen the tanks of the first and third stages and completely get rid of the second. As a result, the payload on the GPO will be comparable to the reusable version of the Falcon 9.
Management of the Center named after. Khrunicheva believes that the cost of the rocket will be reduced by 25% compared to the Proton-M launch vehicle, which will bring the launch cost closer to $50-55 million.
Comparison of “Proton” modifications
After the breakdown of relations with Ukraine and the Yuzhmash concern, Roscosmos began searching for a replacement launch vehicle, which had the lowest launch price in its weight category. The new one, aka “Sunkar”, will use Zenit launch pads, both on and on a floating platform. According to Roscosmos plans, flight tests of the Sunkar should begin in 2024, and commercial operation is planned to begin in 2025.
In one of his interviews, Elon Musk said that his favorite rocket after Falcon 9 (translated as “falcon”) is Zenit. Sunkar is translated from Kazakh as “falcon”. Coincidence?
What about reusable systems? The Russian launch vehicle was introduced in 2007. A special feature of the project is the return and landing of the first stage with repeated firing of the standard engines. GRC named after. Makeev, as the main executor, was to produce a demonstrator of an ultra-light launch vehicle with a reusable first stage. The work was planned to be carried out according to the technical specifications of TsNIIMASH in 2016.
December 12, 2011 GRC named after. Makeev presented the “Rossiyanka” launch vehicle at the Roscosmos competition for the development of the Reusable Rocket and Space System (MRKS) of the first stage. However, as a result of the competition, the order for the development of MRKS was received by the State Research and Production Space Center named after. Khrunichev with the Baikal-Angara project.
The demonstrator was not manufactured. It is planned to conduct design and exploratory studies on launch vehicles with reusable first stages. The result will be the development of technical proposals and a draft development concept Russian system launch vehicles until 2035.
Flight diagram of the Russian launch vehicle
As part of the MRKS program to study the prospects of reusable rockets, the Voronezh Chemical Automatics Design Bureau is developing an oxygen-methane engine RD0162D2A with a thrust of 85 tons. In 2016, it was announced that 800 million rubles would be allocated for its development. The contract is for 3 years with the prospect of creating propulsion engines with a thrust of up to 200 tons. In December of the same year took place successful tests demonstrator engine with ten engine starts.
The Japanese Space Agency (JAXA) in 2014 signed a contract with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) to create a new generation of launch vehicles H-3 with the first launch in 2020, which consists of 2 oxygen-hydrogen stages and up to four solid propellant boosters. The first stage will be equipped with 2 or 3 LE-9 engines, depending on the configuration, with a thrust of 1470 kN each and a specific impulse of 426 seconds. The maximum payload for the GPO will be 6.5 tons, and the lightest configuration is designed to deliver 4 tons into sun-synchronous orbit at an estimated cost of 5 billion yen ($44 million) in 2015.
Also, work has been underway for three years to halve the cost of launches compared to the current launch vehicle and at the same time double the number of launches to 8 per year. New launch slots will be aimed at using commercial satellite launches. The first commercial launch took place in November 2015, when the H2-A launch vehicle launched the Canadian telecommunications satellite Telstar 12 Vantage into orbit. 2 more launches are planned for 2018 and 2020.
It is noteworthy that from 1998 to 2003, JAXA conducted research on reusable vertical takeoff and landing systems as part of the Reusable Vehicle Testing (RVT) project by the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS) at the Noshiro Rocket Testing Center in northern Japan. 4 test prototypes were built for ground and flight testing. The prototypes received many improvements: an aerodynamic shell, a nitrogen-based attitude control system, composite tanks for storing hydrogen and oxygen, a GPS navigation system and the ability to restart the engine in flight. In flight, a height of 42 meters was reached and the landing accuracy was 5 cm. All developments were proposed to be applied to the next generation, capable of carrying a payload of 100 kg to a height of 100 km. Despite the promise of the technology, the project was closed. There is no information about whether JAXA will copy the SpaceX approach or raise its old developments, although now this is becoming more relevant than ever.
Results
The reaction of SpaceX opponents was somewhat delayed, which can be explained by the conservatism of the space industry. By 2020-2021, many new rockets will take flight: here Proton Light, Vulcan (ULA), New Glenn (Blue Origin) and Ariane 6 (Arianespace). These will be more cost-effective carriers, but SpaceX is not sitting idle either. The company made 18 launches this year, and plans to increase the number of launches in 2019 to 25-30. Management sets the bar high and often fails to achieve it, but their confidence can be explained by the launch of the Falcon 9 Block 5 in early 2018, which is designed so that the first stage can be launched 10 times with minimal maintenance and without replacing significant components.
Also in 2018, they promise to save the nose fairing, the cost of which is estimated at $5-6 million. The first relaunch of the used first stage has already cost half the cost of building a new one, although in order to conquer the market, it is not the cost of the launch vehicle that comes to the fore, but its availability to start the load. Even with a one-time restart of the first stage, the fleet of available media increases by 2 times. Now SpaceX has more than 50 orders in its launch manifest; its competitors have everything planned for the next 2-3 years - what is happening now will have consequences only in a few years. But we can already say that in the absence of Falcon 9 accidents, SpaceX will capture most commercial launch market.
By launch mass and price for various launch vehicles.
Elon Musk's SpaceX, well known for its ambitious projects, has many interesting tests planned for 2015, however exact dates the implementation of these plans is unknown. Fortunately, using open data, it is possible to create an approximate schedule of expected events.
Nearest the event will happen February 28, when the Falcon 9 launch vehicle will be expected to launch the heavy Eutelsat 115 satellite into a high geotransfer orbit. There will be no attempt to land the first stage of the rocket on a barge, since there will not be enough fuel left in it. Postponement of this launch weather conditions or due to minor technical problems is possible, but SpaceX will most likely try not to delay it too much. The fact is that already on March 4, tests of the emergency rescue system of the future manned Dragon spacecraft are planned at the launch pad. They were postponed from spring 2013, summer-autumn 2014 and January 2015. SpaceX specialists have worked on the rocket launch procedure for several years, but the Dragon tests are unique. In this regard, a postponement of the date can be considered quite probable.
The next event, quite ordinary, is the launch of the geostationary communications satellite TurkmenSat-1, which will take place between March 21 and 30. The spacecraft, developed by the French-Italian corporation Thales Alenia Space, will become the first satellite of Turkmenistan. As with other high-orbit launches, there will be no attempt to return the rocket's first stage.
On April 8, the launch of the sixth Dragon cargo ship to the ISS (mission CRS 6) is scheduled to take place. According to rumors, the date of this launch is fixed, i.e. its postponement is possible only in the event of unforeseen circumstances. The launch into low orbit means that we will once again be treated to a show with the Falcon 9 landing on a barge. We can only hope that the weather will not let us down this time, because the next attempt will not come until June 13 during the CRS 7 mission. And on June 25, Falcon 9 will be expected to launch the ORBCOMM OG2 satellites into low orbit, which means another opportunity to experiment with landing to the barge.
| date | Event | Launch pad |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of February | launch of Eutelsat 115 West B at GPO | Canaveral #40 |
| March 4 | Pad Abortion Test | Canaveral #40 |
| March 21-30 | launch of "TurkmenSat 1" at GPO | Canaveral #40 |
| April 8 | Dragon, CRS 6, stage recovery attempt | Canaveral #40 |
| May 10 | launch of the SES 9 satellite into geotransfer orbit | Canaveral #40 |
| June 13 | Dragon, CRS 7, stage recovery attempt | Canaveral #40 |
| June 25 | launch of Orbcomm OG2 small satellites into low orbit, stage return attempt | Canaveral |
| July | apparatus for studying ocean floor Jason 3 | Vanderberg |
| second half of the year | In-Flight Abortion Test | Vanderberg |
| the end of the year | first launch of Falcon Heavy | Canaveral No. 39A |
In the second half of the year, an In-Flight Abort Test is expected - a test of the Dragon ship's in-flight emergency rescue system, which will take place not at Cape Canaveral, but at the Californian military base Vandenberg. According to rumors, in this test SpaceX plans to use the first stage of the rocket built for the Falcon-9R rocket landing test apparatus (also known as Grasshopper 2, “Grasshopper-2”). After the test, the stage will gently return to Earth to then begin its original task. In July, also from Vandenberg, the Jason-3 ocean floor relief satellite is scheduled to launch into low Earth orbit. It is not yet known which site the stage will return to during the In Flight Abort Test and whether SpaceX plans to return the Falcon 9 stage after the launch of Jason-3.
SpaceX will end the year with the first launch of the Falcon Heavy rocket. If successful, she will become the most powerful rocket of all available today. Currently, launch pad No. 39A at Cape Canaveral is undergoing modernization, after which it will be able to be used for launches of all SpaceX rockets. It can be noted that, most likely, SpaceX will try not to launch a heavy rocket until it succeeds in landing the first stage of the Falcon 9 on a barge. Losing three Falcon Heavy modules would be too much of a waste for the California-based company.
|
Space ribbon |
Loading...
