Modern science has made a big step forward in medicine, biology, genetics. Many things, like the human genome, for example, have become a solution. However, against the backdrop of a huge number of pluses, no less number of new risks and problems have appeared. And it is not known what will be more as a result.
Seventy year vacation from illness is coming to an end. Penicillin, discovered by Alexander Fleming in 1929, was the beginning of the production of "superweapons" - antibiotics. But, developing science and not realizing the full value of this tool, a person found application for it in all areas of his life, which greatly reduced the period of its usefulness.
Now we are faced with how nature found an antidote to our antibiotics, superbugs evolved and mutated under the influence of these drugs, and their "golden age" has come to an end. Pandora's Box is open - more than 400 viruses that are relevant to humans are free (Ebola, Zika and others). How does this threaten us? What should a person do in order not to return to the days of "Spanish flu" and yellow fever?
Guest of Mikhail Kovalchuk - Doctor of Medical Sciences, Professor Nikolay Durmanov.
The main biological threat is human ignorance. Mr. Durmanov, as a representative of official science, demonstrates just this. He's smart, very smart. Woe from wits is just that case. What does it lead to the consciousness of the crowd? Disasters are inevitable, food crises are inevitable, epidemics are inevitable, land is scarce, water is scarce, global warming will wash away everyone, GMOs will save us all, and man ... is generally alien to the biosphere. A curtain! We applaud while standing.
One of the Forum participants asks Mr. Durmanov a very interesting question, the essence of which is as follows - does Nikolai Durmanov consider the existence of a macrolevel possible with a universal connection between phenomena?
Nikolai Durmanov asks permission to evade an answer, but nevertheless utters several thoughts that show his attitude to this topic. Mr. Durmanov:
"We can assume that the phenomena, those that we are trying to explain by simple mechanisms of the biosphere, are actually part of a larger picture. In this case, we can agree, if not to the Rothschilds, then to aliens, the parallel existence of the Universe ... to the Reptilians. I am a technical person I am a designer of biosafety systems, therefore, by an effort of will, I isolate a more or less rational platform for myself, while realizing that it is quite possible that I am wrong and it is better to open the Bible. "
And this is more than a clear example of the fact that not understanding, the First Cause of everything, leads humanity to pitiful attempts to correct the consequences of the ignorant and destructive manifestation of Will. And grabbing and correcting only that part of the processes that take place in human society, without understanding the Whole picture and cause-and-effect relationships of all Living - this is really a dead end for the further development of our society. I think that somewhere this is recognized by Mr. Durmanov himself, voicing the idea of a dead end to which mankind has come. Mr. Durmanov:
“We have devoured the planet, we left nothing to our grandchildren ...”, “people go to the stadium to watch how some of the people in red are trampling on people in blue, while everyone is shouting something and drinking something incomprehensible, obviously harmful” “some kind of madness then ... "," tobacco is sold in any kiosk, which collects half a million lives in our country and our closest neighbors, the same vodka ... "," we adopted Western standards: eat more, consume more, be it emotions or services to nobody necessary ... "," everything that a person made with his own hands or with an excavator bucket -50 kg per square meter of the planet's surface ... incredible! We have remade the Planet ... while the volume of the biosphere, taking into account the depths of the ocean, endless steppes, cattle pastures, is 2 kg per square meter. "," We made an attempt to dominate ... To the planet, then we will live as we lived ... if not, Nature will reduce us to the number that it considers rational ... "
And every thought is correct, but there is NO real decision on what to do to bring humanity out of the impasse. And it cannot be, while we consider a person as a separate biological unit, it is not clear how interconnected with the rest of the World ...
Former head of the Rossport anti-doping commission, and now head of the Kontinental Hockey League medical center Nikolay Durmanov confirmed in an interview with "Championship.ru" that in the near future he could go to Switzerland for autopsy of doping samples B of Russian biathletes. At the same time, he refuted the opinion that with a positive sample AB will also give a positive result.
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Nikolay Dmitrievich Durmanov
Born May 5, 1946 in Moscow. Graduated from the First Moscow Medical Institute. After graduation, he worked in the system of space medicine for many years. He was in charge of biotechnological industries in Russia. He specializes in genetic engineering. In this profile he worked in more than 30 countries around the world. Nikolay Durmanov was a member of UNIDO - the UN industrial development organization for several years.
From 1990 to 1998 he was the head of the biomedical center at UNIDO.
Since 1998 he has been working in the system of the Russian Olympic Committee (ROC).
From 2001 to 2007, the professor headed the anti-doping committee of the Federal Agency for Physical Culture and Sports of the Russian Federation.
Since the fall of 2008, he has been the head of the Kontinental Hockey League's medical center.
How legitimate is the information that you are flying to Switzerland to represent Russia at the autopsy of the B sample of the doping tests of our biathletes?
- I will give an exhaustive wording: there is such a possibility.
- You are currently working in the KHL. Why did they contact you in this case?
- I have been dealing with anti-doping issues for many years. On duty, I had to deal with all sorts of incomprehensible stories. With new and super new dope. In addition, I am well acquainted with the global anti-doping community. Including with colleagues in Lausanne. And by education I am a genetic engineer.
- That is, you do not have a corresponding position now?
- No. And I want to emphasize separately: thank God that neither this nor any other doping has anything to do with our hockey. And we will offer a prayer so that it will continue to be so.
Svetlana Ishmuratova said that if the A test is positive, then the B test will certainly be positive as well. Is it really so?
- With all due respect to our great athletes and coaches, who are now giving comments on this topic, I must say that this is far from the case with erythropoietin. This does not mean that someone expects to smear someone. No. The main thing now is to find out what really happened. And the function of experts in this case is to find out the real circumstances of the case.
- Is erythropoietin a doping in itself?
- Another kind of doping. Terrible dope! Nightmare dope! We are already sick and tired of him.
The work will be carried out in the most serious and respectful manner in relation to all. Therefore, talk about a conspiracy, about what they have “packed”, what they have guessed again for the World Cup are inappropriate.
- What functions does it perform?
- In normal medicine, millions of people need it. Hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of people owe him: those who live on an artificial kidney. Those who are being treated for cancer. And many others. Well, in sports, it is used as a powerful doping. It increases the amount of hemoglobin in the blood. Accordingly, endurance increases and health risks increase.
- According to your practice: could such a storm rise from scratch? Could there be a mistake?
- Russia now has a national anti-doping organization: RosADA. She tries to build her work on international principles. On the principles that have been approved by the international community. RosADA has a huge number of connections with other organizations, very respectful relationships with WADA, a number of large international sports organizations. And this relationship leads to the fact that if we have some kind of information, then it has very good reason. In addition, any anti-doping laboratory, valuing its reputation, will double-check itself several times before declaring a positive doping result. And in the case of erythropoietin, he will also ask the opinion of an independent organization.
- But in this case, the information did not come from our side.
- This does not exclude the fact that everything has been rechecked. In this world, everyone respects each other and will not just raise the storm.
The main thing now is to find out what really happened. And the function of experts in this case is to find out the real circumstances of the case.
How powerful is the news that the drug has been diagnosed for the first time in the history of international sports? That he's the last generation.
- Quite possible. Actually, one of the tasks of both our anti-doping services and the biathlon union, as I said, is to find out the real circumstances of the case. If it turns out that this is really doping - well ... The work will be carried out in the most serious, and at the same time the most respectful in relation to everything. Therefore, talk about a conspiracy, about what they have “packed”, what they have guessed again for the World Cup are inappropriate. Nobody plays such games in these circles. It's really about a problem. And how serious the problem is, we will find out. Whether the athletes are guilty of this story, we will also find out. It's too early to talk about it.
- When will it be decided whether you are flying to Lausanne?
- I am often asked the question: why do the tests take so long? It seems to many that he took a doping test, dropped it into the apparatus and in half an hour everything was drawn there. But this is a whole network of scientific experiments, rechecking, re-setting of analyzes. I would also like to say this: problems regularly arise with some new super-doping. You don't have to go far for examples. For example, third-generation erythropoietin, which crushed the Tour de France. Or a designer steroid: THG, the tetrohydrogestin, which has caused a fever in American athletics for several years. There were also a number of new drugs that appeared in sports, and about this there was a lot of noise and a lot of litigation. So, sadly, but before us is a "normal" element of the sports landscape. Therefore, I would not dramatize the situation. Let's figure it out.
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Durmanov: the crisis of medicine and biological threats
The development of technologies in medicine in the near future will be built according to the reactionary principle. We are still developing new drugs to fight the constantly evolving viral and bacterial infections.
However, it may not come to the "nanosubs transporting drugs through the circulatory system". The bacteriological threat is too serious, and the problem is that our antibiotics will simply stop working.
N. Durmanov
"In the past several billion years, microbes have only been engaged in crushing each other with antibiotics or looking for a way to escape this pressure. Accordingly, our naive attempts, having spied some means of fighting microbes with each other - and this is how the first antibiotic looked like - penicillin, it is a means of fighting mold with bacteria, - to solve once and for all the problem in the relationship of microbes and humans. The number did not pass. Only two or three generations have passed from the point of view of human life, and we see that the system does not work. However, Fleming himself in In 1946 he warned about this, and even earlier Pasteur uttered a wonderful phrase, saying: “You know what, gentlemen? Still, the last word will be for microbes! "This was said even before the invention of antibiotics."
According to Durmanov, the already difficult situation in the bacteriological field will only get worse. Thus, cancer patients are completely dependent on antibiotics, and without effective drugs, they will simply die. But already today in many hospitals half of the antibiotics do not work. It will not be possible to carry out a number of operations, for example, a caesarean section during childbirth. And even going to the dentist will become a dangerous business.
In fact, we ourselves, as a civilization, are digging this hole. After the creation of penicillin, which solved a number of problems at the moment, mankind began to use antibiotics in all areas of its life, for example, when raising livestock. And we ourselves use them freely. As a result, we "train the microbiota", creating a testing ground for microorganisms and an additional system for selecting the strongest. What does this lead to today? To the fact that during treatment we go through antibiotics in an attempt to find one that works.
The most serious threat, according to Durmanov, is "superbugs." When we eliminate the antibiotic from the environment, trained microorganisms regain their competitiveness. Microbes that are resistant to drugs and, moreover, are able to compete on an equal footing with their fellows - these are "superbugs". And they also exchange genetic material with each other, providing each other with protection sometimes not even from one, but from several drugs.
N. Durmanov
"Many people say: what about the economy? This is the data of Jim O" Neil, the same economist who invented the abbreviation BRIC. He says: "By 2050, the total cost of antibiotic resistance will be 100 trillion." This is more than the GDP of the entire planet now. Mortality - 10 million lives per year, this is more during any war in the history of mankind. And most likely 40 million. That is, before us is a phenomenon that, in principle, poses a threat to civilization, to the economy, to social stability. "
It would seem that if we are talking about such serious losses, then it is logical to invest billions of dollars in the development of new antibiotics. But the lecturer is sure that this is a pointless undertaking. Durmanov recalls that the last truly new antibiotic was developed over 30 years ago. Everything else is just new references to what nature has invented with minor modifications. And while something turns out, only the time between the introduction of the drug and the formation of resistance is rapidly decreasing.
From an economic point of view, contrary to popular belief, antibiotics are completely unprofitable. A drug that requires billions of dollars in investment and ten years of research and development is rapidly losing relevance and is too cheap. Subsidies and special programs for forcing pharmacists to develop new drugs in fact do not lead to tangible results, the lecturer said.
If we return to the question of agriculture, then flooding with drugs, spraying fields with chemicals - all this in the near future will bring less and less benefit. Already today, instead of 3 times, some Indian farmers are forced to spray their fields 30 times. In a sense, the information society will help here: applications will allow you to choose the right combination of protections that are still working. That is, farmers will, like doctors in intensive care, sort out drugs and look for a worker. This is called stewardship.
N. Durmanov
“These services, these systems for optimizing the use of agrochemistry, and agrochemistry now is about 30% of all costs - this is the future of agriculture. These same stewardship programs. How will they look like? Mobile services, drones, sensors in the fields, remote control using satellites - this is not so important. It is important: to use a drug, you need to spend 10 dollars for 1 dollar to understand , what drug to use, when and in what mode! "
A separate issue without an explicit and unambiguous solution will be "killer drugs" that enter the body, but behave inadequately. Either they excite the system, but are not excreted from it, or they do not act and are not excreted, accumulating in the body.
And the person himself aggravates all these problems by virtue of his psychology. We are not used to listening to doctors. And, for example, antibiotics are often used for viral diseases, from which, in principle, they are not able to cure, since they are adapted to combat bacterial threats. In the era of omics technology, this cannot be done. Omix technologies are a whole complex of the most modern technologies, including genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics.
N. Durmanov
"Super-active drugs are entering the arena - point drugs, which are expensive. But the really strong will collect their sacrifices. It looks like in 15 years this figure for the United States of America will be a trillion. Trillion! You can extrapolate to us, and extrapolation is not easy here. twice, but we are not as disciplined as the Americans. Therefore, we also expect enormous losses in this area, not to mention the fact that the drug is wasted. Although this is politically incorrect. "
Nikolay Durmanov proposes to establish a system in agriculture and medicine according to one principle. In the field of "doctor-patient" communication, the option when there is no centralized information system will no longer work. There should be some kind of data field, accessible to everyone and explaining in understandable language what can and should be taken in a specific disease, and what should not be in any case. IoT labeling will also help eliminate counterfeiting.
Omix technologies are already working today, and we can really talk about positive results. So, the drugs developed with their use made it possible to finally defeat hepatitis C. The downside is the exorbitant cost of such drugs. In those countries where they would be most relevant, people and the health care system do not have the money to purchase.
N. Durmanov
“Alternative medicine has emerged before our eyes. There are no doctors in it. This is, by the way, a very interesting phenomenon. a visa, how to hide these drugs, because at the border they shake both there and here, how to use them, to what extent one can apply to official medicine, for example: they go to a laboratory, they want a special apparatus that assesses the state of the liver. there are no doctors. From time to time someone comes here and says: “How great, I’ll educate you now.” This community expels a physician from its composition. We have a spontaneously organized “Medicine 3.0”, the slogan “Medicine 3.0” - there is such a famous doctor Eric Poplar in America, - the phrase "And now the patient will examine you." That is, the opposite is true. The patient chooses doctors. The patient chooses the treatment system and must oh it is, and measure this business with your financial capabilities. "
Nikolai Durmanov believes that Medicine 3.0 is a threat and, at the same time, a chance to build a more relevant medical system. The threat is because qualified specialists can be squeezed out of medicine and it will itself be destroyed. A chance - because society begins to pay attention to what is happening and can react to dangerous trends in time. This is not a substitute for treatment, but a good guiding signal for physicians on what and when to spend energy. Nikolay Durmanov applies the term "metasensorics" to a single information fabric.
Speaking of "superbugs", do not forget about the long-forgotten topic of infectious diseases. 70 years ago, humanity decided that it was done with them. But it is infections that have changed the course of history more than once. It was they who allowed the conquistadors to seize South America, when smallpox decimated most of the indigenous population, made the United States an English-speaking country, when Napoleon's expeditionary force was cut out by yellow fever during an attempt to suppress the uprising in Haiti. Otherwise, the southern states would have remained French.
Why are old threats returning now? Because there are too many people, while they are actively moving around the planet, bringing with them those diseases that have been forgotten for a long time. An example is Ebola. In the near future, we will be faced with superviruses - the product of the recombination of existing ones.
N. Durmanov
“When the British brought the smallpox vaccine to America, they had to swim for some time, a month, say, or half a month. How to bring them? And the moment they swam to the shore, they have here he is, a boy who still has a live vaccine, which became the basis for vaccination of white settlers. Great. Now there is no such problem. A man from Kinshasa ends up in St. Petersburg. And at passport control he starts coughing. Hi! Our ventilation system will remarkably replicate this whole story for the entire Pulkovo airport. So, this is the first problem: there are a lot of us, we climbed everywhere. "
Urbanization is also becoming a problem. Oddly enough, in the modern world, a significant proportion of the urban population is poor. Moreover, the cities themselves are not adapted for a normal healthy life. Unsanitary conditions, irrational use of antibiotics or lack of them - all this becomes a breeding ground for new types of diseases and a testing ground for virus recombination.
N. Durmanov
“There are a thousand and a half of them (viruses) now, of which 350 are new. Just think, 350 new viruses in 40 years, many of them extremely dangerous. MEPC, SARS are SARS, but these are all some wrong names. more romantic names, such as Rocky Mountain spotted fever, Kiasanur forest disease, Chukungunya, Hanta, Lasta, Dengue, etc. Romance. And behind each romance there is a daytime incubation period and almost guaranteed death. "
Despite the fact that we live in the information age, when we talk about epidemics, the authorities and specialized departments are sometimes forced to make a cynical calculation and hide the true scale of the problems. Otherwise, in addition to superbugs and superviruses, we will also be threatened by panic. After the outbreak of the epidemic, which can take the lives of 15 thousand people in one particular city, the state should not trumpet about the problem at every step. Otherwise, people will try to escape from the city, and the number of deaths in stampedes, traffic jams, and pogroms will be much greater.
For this reason, for example, the United States has long developed an action plan depending on the severity of the biological threat. This applies not only to diseases that spread naturally, but also to biological terrorism. A bucket of anthrax spores can have the effect of a megaton nuclear bomb, and in this case, it is worthwhile to give out information in doses, and at the same time put corpses in special coffins in stadiums, minimizing the danger of further aggravating the epidemic.
If we talk about the bioterror itself, then a devastating terrorist attack can be carried out practically without investment, and it is very difficult to prevent it.
N. Durmanov
"A bucket of anthrax spores can be produced at a cheese factory. The bacteria can be dug out of the nearest burial ground, for nothing, the maps of the burial grounds are in the public domain. And there is even a mark - anthrax or non-anthrax. Growing - no big problems. How to produce aerosol of combat uniform - there are also no big problems. That is, technically there are no problems at all. As Obama said: “The most interesting thing about bioterrorism is why it hasn’t happened yet!” The Americans, and we, too, have special systems that are trying with this Here is the famous American Prism system, according to which any of your text messages, any likes on Facebook, any Twitter are analyzed in super cars to see if you are the same person who wants to send the gene to Malaysia, to Kuala Lumpur , and they - to Islamabad to grow a bucket of this very anthrax there in an abandoned factory. All this is there. But it seems that we are late. Because apart from classical bioterrorism there is also this: shahids infected with smallpox flew to three airports - it is impossible to catch them, because smallpox has a 14-day incubation period. He is healthy, his temperature is normal, but he is contagious! "
In the future, bioterrorism can become something of a hooliganism. Due to the fact that the data is on the Internet, it will be possible to conduct experiments, collecting the necessary ingredients and creating weapons. And the exertion of forces in an attempt to overcome global threats will play into the hands of bioterrorists. This problem, says Durmanov, has no solution yet. Genomic editing is our control over the biosphere. Humanity corrects itself to defeat diseases, primarily those based on problems in individual genes. This can be done in advance, before childbirth.
But in fact, now we see that in countries such as India, the identification of genetics allows parents to determine the sex of the child at an early stage, and if it is a girl, they simply have an abortion using a pill. While this is primitive, the lecturer suggests that genomic editing will become a legal or illegal mechanism for correcting people. And, oddly enough, mental disorders are becoming one of the most devastating diseases.
N. Durmanov
"This problem, which is called The city, rapid urbanization, leads to the fact that cities are filled with tens of millions of people, cut off from their usual way of life, from their usual way of thinking, from a certain rhythm, mental, cultural, social. This is an ideal environment for development. all kinds of diseases - schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, what used to be called manic-depressive psychosis, depression, especially depression. Anxiety syndrome - and so on, and so on. "
The real numbers are hidden, it is more difficult to identify them than the losses from epidemics, but Nikolai Durmanov says that even according to the conservative forecast, we are talking about trillions of dollars. 25% of residents of large European cities and up to half of people in a creative environment can be considered schizophrenic. At least they have certain psychological deviations. These citizens need to be treated because they can be dangerous to society. Moreover, they are more vulnerable to other types of diseases. They get sick two to three times more often than mentally healthy people. To heal and to identify manic moods, humanity will create new systems for collecting and analyzing information. This is also a threat.
N. Durmanov
"So all my knowledge that I collect on a legal basis, I can use to produce something very exotic. A wonderful, wonderful world will be drawn, of course - population control, and even control by machines. Rather risky, because there will be fans to use this most powerful tool ... After all, with the same probability with which we collect key information, we can reversely modify consumer, political, social, gender preferences of the audience - a powerful feedback tool for feedback. "
Nikolai Durmanov believes that humanity has neither the strength nor the money for everything at once. The only chance to mitigate the damage is to prioritize correctly, and not "indulge" in spending on technology for your own amusement.
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