The method is based on the fact that products using OIP are sold more expensive than similar ones and bring additional profit

Essence: assessment of the additional income that the copyright holder can receive in comparison with enterprises that do not have rights to intellectual property, or additional income in relation to a given enterprise that produces products before and after using intellectual property.

The source of profit advantage can be:

¾ Increase in unit sales price

¾ Increase in the volume of product sales in physical terms

Applicability: the method is applicable in cases where it is possible to determine with a sufficient degree of reliability the prices of analogues and their cost

Algorithm:

checking the validity of rights

estimating profit advantage per unit

selection of forecast period

sales volume estimation

discounting and summing up differences in profit

St=sum (Vi*Pri*(1+R)^(-n))

Lecture No. 4

Profit advantage method, problem.

The “technology of the future” enterprise began producing advanced particle measuring instruments, the production of which is based on unique know-how. The company's plans do not yet include obtaining a patent for this technical solution. According to experts, the demand for devices produced using this production secret will continue for 5 years. Revenue from the sale of devices with an extended range of maximum sensitivity in the first year will amount to 42 million rubles. The production volume of devices will be 150 units annually during the first 2 years after the start of production and 200 units in the next 3 years. Previously, the enterprise had already produced similar products, although they were inferior to them in terms of basic technical characteristics and the production cost was 190 thousand rubles. The company's revenue was 30 million rubles. with sales volumes equal to an average of 120 pcs. The costs of producing devices using know-how remained at the same level. The return on investment in investment objects comparable in risk level to the object assessed is 20%. It is required to determine the market value of a technical solution as of the current date.

Cost of know-how = summed DCF

Premium Profit method

The method is based on the fact that a branded product is sold more expensive than a similar unbranded one.

The scheme for calculating the value of a trademark or brand using this method is as follows: the difference in price is multiplied by the projected sales volumes of a branded product (in physical terms) during the product’s life cycle. This will be the value of the brand.

In the rare case where branded and unbranded products are sold at the same price, the value of the brand is determined based on the difference in sales volume of these products in monetary terms.

The main disadvantage of this method is the difficulty of finding an unbranded analogue, as well as the influence on the price difference of price variations in different regions, or seasonal fluctuations, or other factors.

Interbrand brand value assessment method

Interbrand is one of the leaders in the Western market in the field of brand valuation. Together with Citigroup 2, Interbrand annually prepares and publishes a ranking of the 100 most “expensive” brands in the world. A prerequisite for inclusion in the rating is the global scale of the company’s operations and a sufficient amount of information about it. The first condition is determined by the Interbrand assessment methodology, which is currently not applicable to local brands. Because of the second condition, the rating is not comprehensive: it does not include, for example, such large brands as VISA, BBC, Mars and CNN. In addition to the rating of the brands themselves, a rating of companies that own a portfolio of brands, such as P&G, Unilever, L'Oreal, etc., is prepared separately.

Interbrand's Brand Valuation Model is based on the net present value of a brand and consists of four sequential stages 3 .

1) At the first stage (Financial Forecasting), the cash flow that is created by all intangible assets (IMA) is predicted. Cash flow is calculated as follows: projected total revenues are reduced by operating expenses. From the operating profit received, the product of the amount of capital that would be needed to produce an unbranded product of similar properties and the risk-free rate of return is subtracted.

EarningsIntA = Operating Profit After Tax - ,

Earnings- added profit of intangible assets;

I ntA - Intangible Assets- intangible assets;

Operating Profit After Tax- operating profit minus taxes;

Capital Employed- capital involved;

Risk Free Rate- risk-free rate of return.

Let's take a closer look at the second term. Its fundamental meaning is to separate the profit created by intangible assets, including the brand, from the profit created by physical capital. To calculate the amount of capital involved (Capital Employed) The industry average ratio of the capital involved in the industry to any income indicator is used. Official submissions use Capital-Employed-to-Sales-Ratio. Multiplying this ratio by the sales volume of the company being evaluated, we obtain the desired value, which is considered “natural” for the production of unbranded products.

Interbrand takes the risk-free rate of return on government treasury bonds as the level of return on material factors. The economic meaning of this bet is as follows: these tangible assets will bring such profitability if they operate without the use of any intangible capital. In simple terms: how much will the owner of material assets receive if they work practically on their own.

• 2) At the second stage (Role of Branding) In the cash flow created by intangible assets, the share created specifically by the brand stands out. To do this, it is determined to what extent the brand influences key demand factors. The calculation is made as a percentage.
• 3) Third stage (Brand Risk). Brand risk analysis allows you to determine the rate at which projected income is discounted to its net present value. The discount rate is based on the risk-free rate, which is the yield on government bonds for the forecast period, and a premium determined based on brand strength analysis (Brand Strength), which is characterized by seven special indicators given below (Table 5).

Intellectual property represents the exclusive rights of an individual or legal entity to the results of intellectual activity and equivalent means of individualization (trademarks, service marks, trade names, etc.). Achievements of science and technology, literary, artistic, musical works and other objects of creative activity are objects of intellectual property; they have an intangible nature, different content and form of presentation.

In Russian theory and practice, the term “intellectual property” is used in the vast majority of cases to reflect any intangible objects of a business process, and for the purposes of accounting and reporting at an enterprise, the concept “intangible assets” is used.

That is "Intellectual Property" = "Intangible Assets"

Intangible assets are defined as “investments in intangible objects that are used in business activities over a long period and generate income.” According to clause 55 of the Regulations on accounting and reporting in the Russian Federation, intangible assets used in economic activities for a period exceeding 12 months and generating income include rights arising:

• from copyright and other contracts for works of science, literature, art, computer programs, databases, etc.;
• from patents for inventions, industrial designs, collectible achievements, from certificates for utility models, trademarks and service marks or licensing agreements for their use;
• from rights to “know-how”, etc.

The valuation of rights to intangible assets has much in common with the valuation of tangible property. However, for intangible assets there is no universal exact method for determining value, since each of them is so individual that it is impossible to create a mathematical algorithm for reliable and accurate calculation of the value of an intangible asset.

In addition, the value of intangible assets is influenced by a wide variety of factors. However, practicing evaluators need to be aware of the theoretical developments in this area and, where possible, use the results of this research in their practice.

For practical assessment of the value of intangible assets, experts recommend cost, income and combined approaches, usually used in the assessment of other types of assets.

INCOME APPROACH to valuation of intangible assets

Basic methods of the income approach to assessing intangible assets:

• method of discounting cash flow of intangible assets,
• method of direct capitalization of intangible assets,
• method of exemption from royalties of intangible assets,
• method of excess profits of intangible assets,
• method of splitting the profits of intangible assets

The use of the income approach when valuing intangible assets is subject to the possibility of generating income from the use of intellectual property.

Income from the use of intellectual property is the difference over a certain period of time between cash receipts and cash payments (hereinafter referred to as cash flow) received by the copyright holder for the granted right to use intellectual property.

The main forms of cash receipts are payments for the granted right to use intellectual property, for example, royalties, lump sum payments and others.

The amount of payments for the granted right to use intellectual property is calculated on the basis of the most likely value that could arise when the parties to the transaction act reasonably, have all the necessary information, and the amount of payments is not affected by any extraordinary circumstances.

The main forms of benefits from the use of intellectual property are:

• cost savings on the production and sale of products (works, services) and/or on investments in fixed and working capital, including actual cost reduction, no costs for obtaining the right to use intellectual property (for example, no license fees, no need to separate from profits the most likely share of the licensor);
• increase in unit price of manufactured products (works, services);
• increase in the physical volume of sales of manufactured products (works, services);
• reduction of taxes and (or) other obligatory payments;
• reducing debt service payments;
• reducing the risk of receiving cash flow from using the valuation object;
• improvement of the time structure of cash flow from the use of the valuation object;
• various combinations of these forms.

The benefits from the use of an intangible asset are determined on the basis of a direct comparison of the amount, risk and time of receipt of cash flow from the use of intellectual property with the amount, risk and time of receipt of cash flow that the copyright holder would receive if the intellectual property was not used.

Determining the market value of intellectual property using the income approach is carried out by discounting or capitalizing cash flows from the use of intellectual property.

Discounted Cash Flow Method

For valuation objects that, over equal periods of time, generate cash flows from the use of intellectual property that are not equal in value, the value is determined by discounting future cash flows from the use of intellectual property.

Determining the market value of intellectual property based on discounting includes the following basic procedures:

• determination of the magnitude and time structure of cash flows created by the use of intellectual property;
• determining the value of the appropriate discount rate;
• calculating the market value of intellectual property by discounting all cash flows associated with the use of intellectual property.

In this case, discounting is understood as the process of bringing all future cash flows from the use of intellectual property to the date of assessment at a discount rate determined by the appraiser.

When calculating the discount rate for cash flows generated by the intellectual property being valued, one should take into account: the risk-free rate of return on capital; the amount of the risk premium associated with investing capital in the acquisition of the assessed intellectual property; rates of return on capital of investments similar in risk level.

In this case, the risk-free rate of return on capital is defined as the rate of return for the least risky investment of capital (for example, the rate of return on deposits of banks of the highest category of reliability or the rate of return to maturity on government securities).

Direct income capitalization method

For valuation objects that generate cash flows from the use of intellectual property over equal periods of time, equal in value or changing at the same rate, the value is determined by capitalizing future cash flows from the use of intellectual property.

Determining the market value of intellectual property based on capitalization includes the following basic procedures:

• determination of cash flows generated by the use of intellectual property;
• determining the appropriate capitalization rate for cash flows from the use of intellectual property;
• calculation of the market value of intellectual property by capitalizing cash flows from the use of intellectual property.

Capitalization means the determination, as of the date of valuation, of all future values ​​of cash flows that are equal to each other or changing at the same rate from the use of intellectual property for equal periods of time. The calculation is made by dividing the amount of cash flow from the use of intellectual property for the first period after the date of assessment by the appropriate capitalization rate determined by the appraiser.

When calculating the capitalization rate for cash flows generated by the assessed intellectual property, one should take into account: the value of the discount rate (return on capital); the most likely rate of change in cash flows from the use of intellectual property and the most likely change in its value (for example, if the value of intellectual property decreases due to a reduction in its remaining useful life, take into account the return of capital invested in the acquisition of intellectual property).

The capitalization rate for cash flows generated by intellectual property can be determined by dividing the amount of cash flow generated by similar intellectual property by its price.

Royalty waiver method

The royalty waiver method is used to estimate the value of patents and licenses.

The owner of a patent grants another person the right to use the intellectual property for a certain fee (royalty). Royalty is expressed as a percentage of the total revenue received from the sale of goods produced using the patented product. Under this method, the value of intellectual property is the present value of a stream of future royalty payments over the economic life of the patent or license. The royalty amount is determined based on market analysis.

The royalty exemption method exists in three modifications, differing in the calculation base (gross revenue, additional profit, gross profit). Calculation of the cost of intellectual property using the royalty exemption method is carried out in several stages.

• At the first stage, a forecast of sales volumes is compiled for which royalty payments are expected (taking into account the product life cycle).
• The second step is to determine the royalty rate. The data is taken from tables of standard royalty amounts printed in specialized literature.
• The third step is to determine the economic life of the patent or license. The legal and economic service life may not coincide, so a realistic forecast regarding the duration of payment must be made.
• The next step is to calculate expected royalty payments by calculating a percentage of projected sales.
• Fifth, all costs associated with securing a patent or license are deducted from the expected royalty payments.
• At the sixth stage, discounted profit flows from royalty payments are calculated.
• On the seventh step, the sum of the current values ​​of the profit streams from royalty payments is determined.

The formula for calculating an intellectual property item using the royalty exemption method is:

Вt - revenue in the t-th year;

R - royalty rate for the industry;

Zt - costs associated with maintaining the intangible asset in force in the t-th year;

T - patent validity period, years.

The cost of a license using the royalty method is calculated as:

Вt - revenue from sales of products under license in the t-th year;

Ri - royalty amount in i-year, %;

T - validity period of the license agreement, years.

The royalty amount depends on the following factors:

• scope of legal protection (sale of an unpatented development reduces the license price to 30%);
• the volume of transferred rights of use (the most expensive is a full license, the cheapest is a simple license);
• volume of production and the ability to control the release of products under a license (if control is difficult, the price of the license increases);
• term (the longer the term, the lower the royalty rate);
• scientific and technical significance and commercial opportunities for using the innovation (advanced development costs more);
• the amount of capital investment required to organize production of products under license;
• volume of transferred technical documentation: whether it is transferred in full (design, technological, operational) or partially (design only);
• the licensee’s dependence on the supply of materials, tools, components for organizing the production of products under the license, as well as on the amount of technical assistance from the licensor in the development of the facility;
• market situation: availability of competitive offers for the purchase of technologies that are similar in economic efficiency;
• The royalty amount can be determined empirically (based on standard average values) or by calculation.

For example, royalty rates are 20-25% of the licensor's additional profit or 0.5-14% of sales volume, cost or product price.

In the absence of data on a specific industry or subject of a license, the calculation of royalty rates is carried out taking into account the level of profitability of production and the licensor's share in the profits of licensees:

P - profitability of production and sales of products under license;

d - the share of the licensor’s profit in the licensee’s total profit from the production and sale of products under the license (from 10 to 50%).

Excess Profit Method

The essence of the method is to calculate the industry average profit on assets and then compare it with a similar indicator for the enterprise under study. It is assumed that an enterprise, having intangible assets not reflected on the balance sheet (or reflected at an undervalued value), receives additional profit from its use. This profit, by multiplying it by the capitalization ratio, directly reveals the cost of intangible assets.

Stages of estimating the value of intangible assets using the excess profit method:

1. determination of the market value of all assets;

2. normalization of the profit of the assessed enterprise;

3. determination of the industry average return on assets;

4. calculation of expected profit based on multiplying the industry average income by the amount of assets (or equity capital);

5. determination of excess profit (expected profit is subtracted from normalized profit);

6. calculating the value of the investment property by dividing the excess profit by the capitalization ratio.

Profit Advantage Method

Profit advantage refers to the additional profit generated by the assessed intangible asset. The advantage in profit is formed either in comparison with enterprises that produce similar products, but without using the evaluated IP, or in comparison with the production of products by the same enterprise, but before using the evaluated IP.

The essence of this method is to predict and evaluate in monetary form the profit advantage that arises throughout the entire period of use of the intangible asset, bring it to its current value and sum it up - this will be the value of the valued intellectual property item.

The general formula for assessing intangible assets using the profit advantage method:

∆P - profit advantage

r - discount rate;

T is the expected period of obtaining an advantage in profit.

Profit splitting method

By this method, the cost of a license is determined as the licensor’s share of the additional profit received as a result of the use of the intellectual property rights to use, which is transferred upon concluding a license agreement.

Licenses = Dl-ra*∑Vt * (Tsed – Sed) * Kdisk, where:

Dl-ra – licensor’s share;

Vt – production volume for 1 year;

T – number of periods;

Цt – unit price;

Ct – unit cost of production;

Kdisk – discount factor.

In world practice, when concluding licensing agreements, the licensor’s share is set in the range from 10 to 30%.

To determine the licensor's share, 5 factors are taken into account:

1. Territory under the license, that is, a list of countries in which the licensee is granted rights in accordance with the terms of the license agreement to use industrial property to organize the production and sale of products under the license. It is calculated using the indicator of the territory specified in the agreement: Pt = Nt/Nв, where:

Nt – number of countries, territories specified by the agreement;

Nв – the number of countries occupying a leading position in the production of products of this type (determined on the basis of patent research).

2. The scope of rights under the license, that is, what rights the licensee received under the terms of the license agreement. Po = 1 – exclusive license; Po = 0.5 – non-exclusive license.

3. The degree of legal protection of an industrial property object within the specified territory: Ppo = Npo/Nt, where:

Npo – the number of countries within the specified territory Nt in which legal protection of intellectual property is provided for the subject of the license.

4. Possibility of unhindered sales of products under a license without violating the rights of 3 parties within the agreed territory (patent purity of products under a license): Рпч = Nпч / Nt, where:

Npch – the number of countries within the specified territory Nt in which an examination for patent purity was carried out.

5. Volume of transferred documentation (design – 30%); Op – a complete package of documentation.

All these 5 factors are combined into a single formula:

Licensor's share = 0.3*(Pt+Po+Ppo+Ppch+Pod)/5

Thus, we have examined the main methods for assessing intangible assets of the income approach.

COST APPROACH to assessing intangible assets

The cost approach is used for inventory purposes, balance sheet accounting, and determining the minimum price of intellectual property, below which a transaction becomes unprofitable for the owner of an intangible asset.

As part of the cost approach, the following methods are used when assessing the value of intangible assets and intellectual property:

• method of summing up actual costs;
• replacement cost method;
• replacement cost method;
• reduced cost method.

Method for summing the actual costs of assessing intangible assets

The method of summing up actual costs is applicable to those intellectual property objects that are created by the copyright holders themselves. The cost of an intellectual property item within the framework of this method is determined by the formula:

SZ(actual) = C1 + C2+ C3+ C4, where:

SZ (actual) - the estimated value of the value of the assessed intangible asset;

C1 - the costs of creating an intangible asset are the sum of the actual costs incurred to carry out research in full and develop all stages of technical documentation, calculated taking into account profitability.

C2 - costs of legal protection of an intangible asset;

C3 - costs of marketing research;

C4 - costs of bringing an intangible asset to readiness for industrial use and commercial sale.

Replacement cost method for assessing intangible assets

This method is based on identifying the value of rights to intangible assets with the costs of its reconstruction, taking into account a reasonable amount of profit. Such reconstruction involves a complete copying of the calculation of the valued intellectual property object and taking into account the costs of its legal protection. Calculation formula:

Сз = Кс S∑Зi x Ki x Kii,

Сз - cost of restoration of the IP;

Kc is the coefficient of obsolescence (depreciation) of intangible assets by the final year of the billing period;

Зi - costs of creating intangible assets incurred in the i-th year;

Ki is the numerical value of the coefficient for bringing different-time value estimates to the accounting year (the coefficient for increasing bank interest rates) for the i-th accounting year;

Kii is an indexation coefficient that takes into account changes in price indices for the i-th accounting year.

Ks - is determined by the formula: Ks = 1 – Tf/Tn, where:

Tn - nominal validity period of the security document, license;

Tf - the actual validity period of the security document, license and the final year of the billing period;

t is the initial year of the billing period;

T is the final year of the billing period.

Determining the market value of intangible assets using the replacement cost method includes the following main steps:

• determining the amount of costs for creating a new object similar to the object being assessed;
• determining the amount of depreciation of the valuation object in relation to a new similar valuation object;
• calculating the market value of the appraised object by subtracting the amount of depreciation of the appraised object from the amount of costs for creating a new object similar to the appraised object.

Replacement cost method for valuing intangible assets

The replacement cost method assumes that an analogue of the valued intellectual property object with similar consumer properties is used for valuation.

The calculated cost takes into account the costs of bringing an intellectual property object - an analogue that replaces the assessed intellectual property object - into a state ready for further use for the planned purposes.

Such costs may be the costs listed in the cost of creation method, which take into account the amount of remuneration only to persons who contributed to the acquisition of a replacement intellectual property item and brought it into a state suitable for further use for the planned purposes.

The present cost method when calculating the current market value of an appraised object involves recalculating actual past costs for the creation and preparation for use of an appraised object into the current value, taking into account changes in money over time. Formula:

Сз(pr.) = Сз(actual) S∑Ki Di /100,

Sz(pr.) - reduced costs;

Сз(actual) - actual costs;

Di is the share of actual costs in the i-th year, %;

Ki - the numerical value of the coefficient for bringing value estimates at different times to the accounting year (the coefficient for increasing bank interest rates) is determined by the formula:

1) for the period of time preceding the accounting year: Ki = (1 + E)T-tp

2) for the period following the billing year: Ki = 1/(1 + E)T-tp, where:

E - standard for bringing value estimates at different times, calculated using the formula:

E = a/100, where:

a- bank interest (refinancing rate);

tp - the year in which the valuation is reduced to the accounting year (the initial year of development of the object of legal protection, the initial year of validity of the exclusive rights to the object, the year of validity of the license agreement, etc.).

Thus, we have reviewed the main approaches and methods for assessing intellectual property and intangible assets.

2. Scientific, research activities as activities aimed at obtaining and applying new knowledge. Scientific and technical activities.

3. Experimental developments. Scientific and scientific-technical result as a product of scientific and scientific-technical activity. Concepts of scientific and scientific-technical products.

4. State funding of scientific and scientific-technical developments. Grants and commercialization of scientific and scientific-technical results.

5. The concept of innovation and an innovation project as a set of activities. The concept of innovation infrastructure and innovation activities in terms of the implementation of innovative projects.

6. The concept of product and innovative product. Features of a modern innovative project.

8. Classification of innovations. Types of innovative products: reactive innovative products; innovative paradigm shift products; breakthrough innovative products and others.

9. Innovation management – ​​definition, main characteristics. Innovation Product Manager. Directions for growth of an innovative product.

10. Positioning and planning of an innovative product. The concept and purpose of innovation project operations.

11. Decision-making models. Factors influencing the decision-making process.

15. Statistical indicators of the European Innovation Survey (ESI). Scientific and innovative profile of eio.

17. Construction and analysis of s-curves of technologies. S - technology development curves. Construction and analysis of s-curves of technologies.

Industrial SEZs

Innovative special economic zones

Tourist special economic zones

19. Main stages of venture investment. Characteristics of each stage.

21. Intellectual property - basic concepts and governing legislation.

22. Classification of copyright objects. Industrial property. Rospatent and its main functions. Know-how and trade secrets.

23. Calculation of cost parameters of innovative projects. The concept of the accrued loan amount, types of interest, discounting, gross rate. Taking into account inflation in the valuation of an innovative project.

24. Method for assessing intellectual property. Profit advantage method.

25. Methods for assessing intellectual property. Royalty waiver method.

26. Methods for assessing intellectual property. Excess profit method.

27. Method for assessing intellectual property. Creation cost method.

28. Risk assessment of innovative projects. Innovative planning.

29. Innovative control and controlling.

30. State priorities of Russia in innovation policy. International innovation programs.

24. Method for assessing intellectual property. Profit advantage method.

Refers to the income approach - the cost of an object of intellectual property (new technology, license, etc.) is estimated. Data are known for calculating the net profit that will be received when using the intellectual property, as well as data for calculating the net profit that will be received when using replaced equipment. That is, the difference between the net profit received when using an intellectual property object and the net profit without using this object.

25. Methods for assessing intellectual property. Royalty waiver method.

Refers to the income approach. Royals are a payment to the owner of intellectual property for a patent, for an exclusive/non-exclusive license to produce, sell and make a profit from a legally protected property.

Calculation algorithm:

1) determining the service life of an intellectual property object;

2) forecast of annual sales volumes;

3) determination of the royalty coefficient of annual royalty payments;

4) calculation of annual royalty payments as the product of the royalty coefficient and the annual sales volume;

5) determination of the annual discount rate;

6) calculation of the sum of the modern values ​​of all annual royalties;

7) all expenses associated with securing the intellectual property are deducted from this amount;

8) the amount received is the price of an object of intellectual value.

26. Methods for assessing intellectual property. Excess profit method.

Refers to the income approach. Designed to measure goodwill when the added product creates intangible assets not reflected in the balance sheet. Goodwill is the difference between the market value of an enterprise and the amount of its net assets.

Calculation algorithm:

1) determination of market value;

2) calculation of the net annual profit of the assessed enterprise;

3) determination of the industry average annual return on assets or equity;

4) determination of the industry average expected profit of the enterprise being valued on its assets or equity capital as a multiplication of the market value of assets or equity capital by the industry average profitability;

5) determination of the excess annual profit of the evaluated enterprise as the difference between the industry average expected profit and the net annual profit of the enterprise;

6) determining the value of goodwill as the modern value of annuities - the ratio of excess annual profits to the discount rate;

7) determining the value of all assets taking into account the value of goodwill as the sum of the market value of all assets and the value of goodwill.

27. Method for assessing intellectual property. Creation cost method.

Takes into account all costs associated with the creation, acquisition and implementation of the asset.

Calculation algorithm:

1) determination of the full cost of replacing or restoring an intangible asset - costs of R&D, creation of R&D documentation, experimental samples, payment of patent fees, reduced to one point in time;

2) determination of the coefficient of obsolescence of an intangible asset relative to the validity period of the title of protection;

3) determination of the residual value of an intangible asset:

A=S*k(obsolescence)*k(technical and economic significance)

28. Risk assessment of innovative projects. Innovative planning.

Currently, there are many methods for assessing project risks.

Among them, we highlight the following, which, in our opinion, are the most significant.

1. Analytical methods:

 risk-free equivalent method;

 method of adjusting the discount rate;

- method of expert assessments.

2. Statistical methods:

Measuring dispersion, variation and correlation;

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and similar ones;

3. Stress testing:

- sensitivity analysis;

 scenario analysis;

 decision tree method.

4. Simulation methods:

- Monte Carlo method.

5. Non-traditional (innovative) methods: fuzzy set method;

 methods based on the principle of artificial neural networks.

Innovation risk means the likelihood of a potential factor (event) occurring that could have a significant impact on the loss of part of the assets, loss of income or the emergence of additional expenses as a result of innovation activity.

Investment planning– an orderly information processing process that establishes project indicators before the start of its implementation.

Innovation planning– covers all stages of an innovation project. The result of innovation planning is a business plan.

In the process of developing a business plan, the following work is carried out: - formation of planned goals; - collection of information; - identification of risks; - identification and analysis of problems; - search for alternatives; - making forecasts; - testing.

Qualitative and quantitative goals are considered. Sources of information – scientific and technical publications, patents, competitive analysis.

6. Calculate the value of goodwill by dividing excess earnings by the capitalization ratio.

Example. Let's assume that the market value of the company's assets is estimated at $40,000, normalized net profit is $16,000. The average return on assets is 15%. Capitalization rate - 20%. It is necessary to estimate the value of goodwill. The calculation algorithm is as follows:

It should be noted that the appraiser must remove non-operating income from the actual net income of the enterprise. Some appraisers use average assets and average earnings over a specified period, usually five years, to calculate excess earnings. But this approach is justified if the data for the selected period reflect reasonable future expectations; moreover, “abnormal years” with profit levels significantly above or below the average should be excluded from consideration. Using a simple average or weighted average of profits over the past few years without taking into account how retrospective information reflects possible future profits will lead to undervaluation or overvaluation of the enterprise. The most important problem when using the excess earnings method is the correct choice of the capitalization rate for calculating the value of goodwill. Typically, investors pay for the expected future profit derived from goodwill over a period not exceeding five years. Under these assumptions, the capitalization rate is calculated as the reciprocal of the number of years of excess return for which the investor is willing to pay. For example, if an investor is willing to pay the equivalent of five years' excess earnings, then the capitalization rate is 20%.

Discounted cash flow method. When discounting cash flows, the following work is carried out:

1. The expected remaining useful life is determined, i.e. the period over which projected earnings must be discounted.

2. Cash flow (CF) and profit generated by an intangible asset are forecast.

3. The discount rate is determined.

4. The total present value of future income is calculated.

5. The current value of income from an intangible asset is determined

V post-forecast period (if necessary).

6. The sum of all income values ​​in the forecast and post-forecast periods is determined.

Royalty waiver method. This method is used to estimate the value of patents and licenses. The owner of a patent grants another person the right to use the intellectual property for a certain fee (royalty). Royalty is expressed as a percentage of the total revenue received from the sale of goods produced using the patented product. Under this method, the value of intellectual property is the present value of a stream of future royalty payments over the economic life of the patent or license. The royalty amount is determined based on market analysis. This method bears features of both the income and comparative approaches.

Main stages of the method:

1. A forecast is made of sales volumes for which royalty payments are expected.

The volume of products produced under a license should be determined for each year, taking into account the fact that in the first years of its development there may not be any output, then there is an increase in volumes, then a decline due to the obsolescence of the innovation.

2. The royalty rate is determined. The data is taken from the table of standard royalty amounts (see Table 6.14).

3. The economic life of the patent or license is determined. The legal and economic service life may not be the same, so a realistic forecast regarding the duration of the payment should be made.

4. Expected royalty payments are calculated by calculating a percentage of projected sales.

5. All costs associated with securing a patent or license (legal, organizational, administrative costs) are deducted from the expected royalty payments.

6. Discounted profit flows from royalty payments are calculated.

7. The sum of the current values ​​of the profit streams from royalty payments is determined.

Table 6.13. License cost using royalty exemption method

Table 6.14. Standard royalty amounts based on the gross sales volume of licensed products

Table 6.15. Standard royalty rates by industry sector based on gross sales of licensed products

Thus, the license price formula based on royalties is as follows:

Profit advantage method. This method is often used to estimate the value of inventions. It is determined by the profit advantage that is expected to be obtained from their use. Profit advantage refers to the additional profit due to the valued intangible asset. It is equal to the difference between the profit received from using inventions and the profit that the manufacturer receives from selling products without using the invention. This annual profit advantage is discounted by the expected period of its receipt.

Application of the cost approach in the valuation of intangible assets

When using the cost approach when valuing intangible assets, the following are used:

creation cost method;

cost benefit method.

Creation cost method. Its main stages are the following: 1. The full replacement cost or total cost is determined

recovery of an intangible asset. All actual costs associated with its creation, acquisition and implementation are identified. When acquiring and using an intangible asset, the following types of costs must be taken into account:

to acquire property rights;

for development in the production of goods using an intangible asset;

for marketing: research, analysis and selection of information to determine analogues of proposed industrial property objects.

When creating an intangible asset at the enterprise itself, the following costs must be taken into account:

for search work and topic development;

to create experimental samples;

for the services of third-party organizations (for example, for identifying intellectual property, issuing documents of protection);

to pay patent fees (maintaining the patent in force);

for the creation of design, technical, technological, design documentation;

for the preparation and approval of the report.

2. The value of the coefficient taking into account the degree of

obsolescence of an intangible asset.

3. The residual value of the intangible asset is calculated taking into account the coefficient of technical and economic significance and the coefficient of obsolescence.

The coefficient of technical and economic significance K is established on the following scale1:

1.0 - inventions related to one simple part, a change in one parameter of a simple process, one process operation, one recipe ingredient;

1.5 - inventions related to the design of a complex part of a non-main unit, changing several parameters of simple operations, changing several minor ingredients in a recipe;

2.0 - inventions related to one main or several non-main units, part of non-main processes, part of a non-main recipe; 2.5 - inventions related to the designs of machines, devices,

machines, apparatus, technological processes, recipes; 3.0 - inventions related to structures with a complex system

control, complex integrated technological processes, recipes of particular complexity;

"The scale was proposed by specialists from the Engineering Academy of the Russian Federation.

4.0 - inventions related to designs, technological processes, recipes of particular complexity and mainly to new areas of science and technology;

5.0 - inventions that do not have a prototype - pioneer inventions.

When estimating the value of an intangible asset, such a cost approach method as the cost gain method is sometimes used. It contains elements of both the cost and comparative approaches. The value of an intangible asset is measured by determining the cost savings resulting from its use, for example, when applying know-how.

Example. The company owns the know-how of product production. The cost of producing products without the use of know-how is $6.5 per unit. At the same time, 45% of the cost is labor costs. The company in question sells 300,000 products per year. Know-how gives the company the opportunity to save $1.25 on each product produced due to the materials used and 40% of labor costs. According to forecasts, this advantage will continue for 6 years. It is necessary to estimate the cost of know-how at a discount rate of 15%.

1. Material savings - $375,000 (300,000 pcs. 1.25).

2. Labor cost savings:

the cost of production without the use of know-how is

$1,950,000 (300,000 pcs. 6.5); labor costs (45%) equal to $877,500;

Labor savings are $351,000 (40% of 877,500).

3. Gain in cost of $726,000 (375,000 + 351,000).

4. The duration of the cost advantage is 6 years.

5. Cost calculation:

factor of the current value of the annuity (6 years at a rate of 15%) - 3.784; the cost is $2,747,184 (726,000 3.784).

The comparative approach is based on the principle of an efficiently functioning market in which investors buy and sell assets of similar types, making independent individual decisions. Data on similar transactions are compared with those being assessed. The advantages and disadvantages of the assets being valued in comparison with selected analogues are taken into account by introducing appropriate amendments.

It is necessary to take into account that, due to the specifics of the object being valued, there are significant restrictions on the use of the comparative approach when valuing intangible assets.