For many years, the debate over whether global warming is a myth or a reality has distracted us from the hard facts. Although many are still ambivalent about this problem, it is no longer possible to deny the fact that global warming is a real problem caused by incautious actions and the harmful influence of people. Here are some facts that will help everyone realize the seriousness and danger of the current situation for the future of our planet.

More than 90% of scientists recognize the real threat of global warming

Despite the huge evidence base, people still continue to doubt the threat of global warming. However, the overwhelming majority of scientists recognize not only its reality, but also its inevitability.

Humans have been the main cause of climate change since the mid-20th century.

What scientists today call anthropogenic warming is the result of the harmful influence of man on the environment and, in particular, the atmosphere of our planet.

Numerous weather changes at the local level are the result of general global warming

The result of global warming directly depends on the specific climate. In some places, more rain falls, in others, on the contrary, there are frequent droughts. But these are all different consequences of the same problem.

The greenhouse effect traps solar energy in the atmosphere

The sun's energy warms the earth, which is good, but our atmosphere and the surface of the world's oceans have the reflective properties necessary to avoid overheating. Greenhouse gases reduce the reflectivity of the atmosphere and trap solar energy, preventing it from escaping into space.

US, China and India produce the most greenhouse gases

Being developed or intensively developing countries with a rich industry, these states are responsible for most of the greenhouse gases that negatively affect the atmosphere.

Global warming raises the temperature of the world's oceans

The increase in the Earth's temperature is most noticeable in the waters of the world's oceans and is fraught with great danger for them.

For 30 years, the temperature of the earth has increased by 0.5 ° C

It may seem like a minor change, but our planet is a fragile, interconnected ecosystem where even the slightest change can greatly affect its harmony.

Global warming is a reality that cannot be escaped

The main danger of climate change is that rising ocean temperatures are causing arctic and antarctic glaciers to melt; it raises the sea level. For those who want to challenge the reality of global warming, ocean levels have risen by 15 cm in the last 100 years.

People living in coastal areas are at risk

A significant part of the world's population lives in areas below sea level. in addition, the melting of ice reduces fresh water supplies.

40% of greenhouse gases are released into the atmosphere when generating electricity

The consumption of more and more electricity radically increases greenhouse gas emissions.

Global warming cannot be accurately measured

Weather changes are the result of a complex interaction between air temperature, water temperature and the surface of the earth. They are also influenced by seasonal changes. In addition to the difficulty of measuring weather changes, another difficulty is the determination of the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere.

The impact of global warming will continue

Unfortunately, many people do not realize that anthropogenic climate change is like a snowball, the longer it is in motion, the bigger and faster it is. Even if the harmful human impact on the environment stops now, the effects of the harm will be felt for a long time to come.

The temperature of the Earth will remain high for hundreds of years

As evidence of the snowball effect: even if we reduce our carbon footprint by 80%, the results will only be seen in centuries.

In the US, the temperature rose by 1 ° C

Over the past 50 years, the average temperature in North America has risen twice as high as the temperature of the Earth during the same period.

An increase in temperature leads to an increase in humidity

The higher the temperature, the more evaporation, and, accordingly, the rain. But the scary thing is that the precipitation will not fall evenly. While some regions will be subject to flooding, others will suffer from drought.

The weather will get extreme

We expect abnormally high temperatures in summer and low in winter, as well as more frequent and devastating natural disasters.

Arctic wildlife will be the first to suffer

Already suffering. Melting ice wipes off the face of the Earth the species of living beings and their distribution areas. Get ready to say goodbye to polar bears.

Complete ice melt expected by 2030-2050

Despite the difficulty of predicting weather and temperature changes, some scientists predict the complete melting of sea ice in the Arctic region in 2030-2050.

The global warming debate began in 1957

For more than 50 years, we have watched the debate develop regarding the significance of temperature changes and human impact on the atmosphere.

The main facts and theories about global warming were formulated 50 years ago

Planet Earth is not able to absorb and recycle the amount of carbon dioxide that we produce, a direct consequence of which is an increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere. And we have known this since the middle of the last century.

Global warming is on the rise

The more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the more the environment and the ecology of the planet change. The melting of the eternal ice is an additional source of CO2 emissions, and the ongoing deforestation of the rainforest reduces the planet's ability to process harmful gases.

The ten warmest years on record were after 2000

Still the same snowball effect - every decade after the 70s was warmer than the previous one.

Many facts about climate change remain unknown

The earth's ecosystem is so complex and interconnected that it is impossible to study it completely with the help of current limited technologies, so our understanding of global warming is only partially available to us.

We started global warming and we must stop it.

Today, the picture of the future is not encouraging, but we can do everything in our power to reduce the impact of global warming on the planet. Then, perhaps, future generations will be lucky enough to see the Earth as beautiful as we see it.

There are many groups and organizations opposed to global warming.

And they all need help and support. If you care about the future of the planet, then there are plenty of opportunities to change it for the better.

Throughout its history, humanity has used the natural resources of its native planet for free. The blessings that nature placed at our disposal were taken for granted. In parallel with the development of human civilization, there was a merciless appropriation of earthly wealth. Although our earthly home is huge, it is able to independently regulate the processes occurring in nature, but still, the human environment today does not look as ideal as it was during the last 1-2 thousand years ago. One of the most visible consequences of the development of human civilization is global climate change.

Over the past 150-200 years, when humanity has entered the active phase of its development, the climate on the planet has changed quite noticeably. The geography of the planet has changed, the living conditions in different parts of the Earth have changed dramatically. Where previously there were ideal weather conditions, the climate is changing, the habitat becomes harsher and less hospitable. Less and less remains the conditions necessary for the normal and prosperous existence of the human race.

What is the essence of the warming problem?

It should be recognized that the consequences of global warming are not entirely the result of thoughtless human activity. A number of factors influence climate change on the planet.

On the scale of the universe, our civilization is a fleeting period. What is 200 thousand years of the existence of a reasonable person in comparison with 4.5 billion years of the life of our planet? Over the entire lifetime of the Earth, the climate on its surface has repeatedly changed. Dry and hot periods gave way to global cooling, which ended in ice ages. Huge glaciers covered most of the planet with their shells. Further consequences of global warming in prehistoric times became catastrophic. The melting of glaciers led to large-scale flooding. The rapidly rising ocean level on the planet led to the flooding of vast territories.

According to scientists, the process of global warming was launched long ago and without human intervention. This is facilitated by the natural course of geophysical and astrophysical processes occurring in our solar system, in our galaxy and in the Universe. The theory that existed at the end of the 20th century that a person is to some extent involved in the deterioration of the climatic situation in the world has now been revised. An analysis of the catastrophes that have engulfed our planet in the last 20-30 years, the study of astrophysical and geophysical data have given scientists a reason to believe that the emerging climate changes are of a dynamic nature. To date, two factors have been established that influence changes in weather conditions on the planet and climate transformation:

• natural;
• anthropogenic.

The first factor is uncontrollable and is explained by the inevitable processes taking place in space. The growing expansion of the Universe affects the astrophysical parameters of the motion of all celestial bodies. In other words, the presence of climate change on our planet is a consequence of the cyclical nature of astronomical processes.

While one category of scientists is closely studying the influence of the Universe on earthly processes, another part began to study the scale of the negative impact of human civilization on the natural environment. The impact of anthropogenic factors began with the advent of the industrial revolution. New technologies and the subsequent globalization of the economy have led to a rapid deterioration of the environmental situation on the planet. As a result, anthropogenic factors from year to year began to influence the environment and influence the planetary climate.

The harm done is local in nature, so it is not so noticeable at the regional level. However, in the aggregate, the harmful influence of man on the Earth's biosphere is global. As a result of emissions of products of activity of petrochemical and metallurgical enterprises, the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is growing. The deforestation of equatorial forests in Brazil, in turn, leads to a decrease in oxygen in the atmosphere of our planet. All this and much more leads to the greenhouse effect. As a result, there is an increase in the average temperature on the planet, the polar ice is melting and, accordingly, the level of the world ocean is rising.

It becomes obvious that it is necessary to radically change your attitude towards your own planet. This can be achieved if we exclude or limit anthropogenic factors that have a harmful effect on our environment.

The problem is on a planetary scale, so it is necessary to study it and look for a solution through joint efforts. The individual activity of some separate international organizations and social movements will not solve the problem. But unfortunately, at present, there is a situation of a global scale of misunderstanding of what is happening, the absence of a real and objective assessment of the factors influencing climatic conditions.

New facts in the history of global warming

Studies of ice samples taken from a two-kilometer depth at the Vostok station in Antarctica showed a significant change in the chemical composition of the Earth's atmosphere over two hundred thousand years. As mentioned, the climate on Earth has not always been uniform and stable. However, now there is information in the scientific community that the main causes of global warming in the prehistoric era were associated not only with geophysical processes, but also with a high concentration of greenhouse gases - CO2 and CH4 (methane). Glaciers have always melted. Another thing is that today this process is happening more rapidly. Global warming on earth can come much earlier - not in a thousand, not in a hundred, but much faster - within a dozen years.

In terms of the amount of greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere, the 20th century looks like a record. We can say that this is due to the influence of cyclic natural factors, but today these processes are clearly not complete without human participation. Climate change is happening more dynamically than is determined by the natural cycle. The real confirmation of this is the rapidly increasing number of cataclysms on a planetary scale.

According to scientists from the meteorological department of the University of Washington in the 80s of the XX century, the planet experienced an average of 100-120 catastrophes and natural disasters per year. In the 2000s, the number of hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and other natural disasters that occur annually on the planet increased by 5 times. Droughts have become much more frequent, and the duration of the monsoon rainy season has increased.

According to meteorologists, this is a direct consequence of the fact that fluctuations in atmospheric temperatures on the planet have become significant. Seasonality on Earth ceases to be the norm, the boundaries between the warm and cold periods become clearer and more expressive. Cold winters are abruptly replaced by hot summers and vice versa. After the warm season, the cold comes sharply. In areas of the planet where a mild maritime climate prevailed, the number of hot and dry days is increasing. In cold regions, instead of severe frosts, a prolonged thaw is observed.

The intensive increase in the use of organic fuels in industry and in the process of human life leads to an increase in emissions of CO2, methane and nitrogen oxide into the atmosphere. The predominance of these gases in the composition of the earth's atmosphere prevents heat transfer between the air layers, creating a greenhouse effect. The earth's surface, heated by solar energy and "wrapped" in an air coat of greenhouse gases, gives off less heat, respectively, heats up faster.

Most of all, an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases is fraught with the following circumstances:

• an increase in the temperature of the air mass;
• change in the localization of precipitation formation zones in the earth's atmosphere;
• an increase in the intensity and expressiveness of climatic and weather phenomena;
• melting glaciers;
• reduction of fresh water reserves;
• rising sea levels;
• changing existing ecosystems on the planet.

A change in the average annual temperature by only 1-2 degrees leads to irreversible consequences that entail a chain reaction. The rising average temperature on the planet leads to the rapid melting of glaciers on the planet, the area of ​​the ice shell of Greenland and Antarctica is decreasing. The average annual thickness of the snow cover is decreasing in Siberia and on the territory of the Canadian tundra. The ice sheet covering the Arctic Ocean is shrinking.

The glaciers of Greenland and Antarctica, the richest natural fresh water resource on the planet, are irrevocably dissolved in ocean salt water. The water level of the world's oceans is rising, but due to the increase in sea water temperature and its desalination, the population of commercial fish is decreasing. Accordingly, fishing is also declining, and as a result of natural evaporation, vast areas of agricultural land are depleted. In place of fields and rice paddies, zones of semi-deserts and deserts are rapidly appearing, completely unsuitable for growing crops.

As a direct consequence of global temperature changes, famine and large-scale flooding of coastal areas are becoming an increasingly likely threat to humanity.

The amount of water received as a result of the rapid melting of the glaciers of Greenland and Antarctica will lead to a rise in the water level of the world's oceans by 11-15 meters. Huge areas will be flooded in the countries of Europe, Asia, Africa and the states located in the Western Hemisphere, where up to 60% of the world's population lives.

According to scientists, the flooding of coastal areas with sea water in the next 20-30 years will cause a natural migration of the population deep into the continents. An increase in temperature in the permafrost zone will lead to swamping of vast areas of Western and Eastern Siberia, which will eventually become unsuitable for development. A change in the intensity of precipitation and a decrease in fresh water will lead to the beginning of a new struggle for the redistribution of resources.

Finding a Solution to Global Warming

Climate change on the planet is not a private issue. This is a slow-moving disaster that will eventually affect everyone and everyone. In this regard, the ways to solve it are the task of the governments of all countries. It is not for nothing that the scale of the problem and its aspects are dominant and are discussed at the highest international level.

The efforts made so far in this direction are encouraging. For the first time at the state level, it was recognized that it is a person, his commercial activities that lead to an increase in the amount of greenhouse gases in the planet's atmosphere. Under pressure from the scientific community and public environmental organizations around the world, politicians from the most developed countries signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. This agreement is intended to regulate the amount of industrial emissions, which contain a high amount of greenhouse gases. The main goal of the Kyoto Protocol was the desire to reduce the amount of harmful emissions by 5.2% and bring the pollution parameters to the 1990 level. The atmosphere, as a result, should be cleared of harmful gaseous compounds, which will lead to a decrease in the greenhouse effect.

Within the framework of the Kyoto Document, quotas for harmful emissions were determined:

• for the EU countries, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions will need to be reduced by 8%;
• for the United States, emissions would have to be reduced by 7%;
• Canada and Japan have pledged to reduce this figure by 6%;
• for the Baltic States and Eastern Europe, the amount of greenhouse gases in emissions will have to decrease by 8%;
• a special, favorable regime has been created for the Russian Federation and Ukraine, as a result of which the economies of both countries must adhere to the parameters of emissions of harmful gases at the level of 1990.

Despite the global scale of the event, not all countries in whose territory there are massive sources of emissions have ratified this agreement at the state level. For example, the United States - the country with the largest economy on the planet - has not yet gone through the ratification process. Canada generally withdrew from the membership of the Kyoto Protocol, while China and India have only recently joined the countries participating in international agreements on climate conservation.

The latest achievement on the global climate front was the Paris International Climate Conference, held in December 2019. Within the framework of the conference, new quotas for greenhouse gas emissions were determined and new requirements were announced for the governments of countries whose economies are dependent on the use of mineral fuels in industrial facilities. The new agreement determined the ways of development of alternative energy sources. The emphasis is on the development of hydropower, an increase in heat content in production technologies, and the use of solar panels.

Fighting global warming now

Unfortunately, today the industrial giants scattered around the world have concentrated in their hands more than 40% of the world economy. The noble desire to limit the amount of emissions of harmful components into the atmosphere by imposing restrictions on industrial production in a number of countries looks like an attempt to put artificial pressure on the economies of competitors.

Global warming in Russia is assessed as one of the limiting factors in the development of the domestic economy. Despite the country's active position on the world stage in matters of climate protection and conservation, the country's economy is highly dependent on the use of mineral fuels. The weak energy intensity of the domestic industry and the slow transition to modern energy-intensive technologies are becoming a serious obstacle to real achievements in this direction.

How much of this will turn out to be true, our near future will show. Whether global warming is a myth or a cruel reality, other generations of businessmen and politicians will already know.

If you have any questions - leave them in the comments below the article. We or our visitors will be happy to answer them.

One of the most striking trends of the last twenty years in science is global warming! Some scientists understand this term as an increase in the average temperature of the climate of our planet, allegedly caused by the consequences of human activity, through an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere.

The scientific term global warming is most often used by scientists to denote an increase in the average temperature of the atmosphere and air near the surface of the planet, although according to some data, up to 90% of the warming energy is accumulated in the world's oceans.

Since 1900, the average air temperature on Earth has increased by 0.74 ° C, with 60% of the increase occurring from 1980 to 2010, that is, almost each of the last three decades was warmer than the previous one. Let's try to figure out if this warming is the fault of humanity, or is someone trying to lead us by the nose?

Possible causes of global warming

The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 attributed the increase in concentration due to human activity to the possible causes of global warming.

Three years later, a number of scientists from the leading industrial countries of the planet agreed with such conclusions, and already in 2013 the fifth report of the IPCC gave the following assessment:

Human influences have been identified on rising atmospheric and ocean temperatures, changing the global hydrological cycle, decreasing snow and ice, rising global mean sea levels, and on several extreme climate events… Evidence of human influence has become even stronger in the time since the Fourth Assessment Report » (OD4). It is extremely likely that human influence has been the main cause of the warming observed since the mid-twentieth century...

Thus, the IPCC insists that the cause of global warming of the Earth's climate during the late 20th and early 21st centuries lies in the increased level of greenhouse gases due to human activities. According to scientists from the IPCC and according to the values ​​of climate sensitivity to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations adopted in the models, the value of a possible increase in the average climate temperature over the 21st century will be 1.1-2.9 °C for the minimum emission scenario, and for the maximum emission, the average temperature can rise by 2.4-6.4 °C. For reference, from 2000 to 2010, greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.2% per year, while in the period 1970-2000, the growth in emissions was 1.3% per year.

Potential consequences of global warming

In different regions of the planet, the potential consequences of global warming may be different. The main danger may be a change in the amount and nature of precipitation, rising sea levels with a simultaneous increase in desert areas.

To the risks of global warming, scientists include, among other things, ocean acidification; an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events, including both droughts and heavy rains; possible extinction of individual biological species due to changes in temperature. All this can reduce yields and lead to food problems, especially in disadvantaged regions of Africa and Asia. Moreover, due to the possible rise in sea levels, some habitats will simply become inaccessible to people.

Estimated consequences of global warming for Russia

The domestic Roshydrometcenter has identified the following possible risks for Russia that may be associated with global warming:

• an increase in the intensity, duration and frequency of extreme precipitation and floods, cases of soil waterlogging dangerous for agriculture in some regions, and droughts in others;
• degradation of permafrost with damage to buildings and communications in the Arctic;
• increased fire risk in forest areas;
• increase in electricity consumption for air conditioning in the summer season for a significant part of settlements;
• violation of the ecological balance, the displacement of some biological species by others;

Attempts to prevent global warming

The main international agreement on combating global warming until 2012 was the famous Kyoto Protocol, which was agreed upon in the last century, but entered into force only at the beginning of 2005. The Kyoto Protocol is an addition to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted on May 9, 1992. According to the Kyoto Protocol, more than 160 countries of the world participate in the program for regulating greenhouse gas emissions, which covers 55% of global emissions.

Separately, it should be noted that such countries as the USA, Canada, Afghanistan and Andorra have not ratified the Kyoto Protocol and do not actually implement it.

At a conference in Cancun, Mexico, in 2010, countries participating in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreed that the main goal of the work was to limit global warming to 2°C and stated that there was an "urgent need to take urgent action" to achieve this goal.

At the same time, the United States, the European Union, and China today have industries that will emit more carbon dioxide into the Earth's atmosphere during their lifetime than "these countries share with a uniform per capita distribution of the global emission budget" for 2 °C. China has already surpassed the United States and the European Union in terms of the atmosphere.

In fact, all efforts to combat global warming are aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, although some scientists offer curious methods, such as taking carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by fertilizing the world's oceans with iron.

Misconceptions and myths about global warming

In addition to those who firmly believe in the global warming hypothesis and in the fact that people and their industry are the reasons for the rise in temperature, there are those who are skeptical of such statements. There is even a term - "climate skepticism", that is, distrust of certain ideas about global warming of the planet's climate. The subject of doubts of “climate skeptics” is often both the very fact of warming and the role of mankind in this process.

For example, "climate skeptics" do not believe in the complete melting of the Arctic ice by 2030-2050, as advocates of the anthropogenic version of global warming warn about.

There are even those who claim that the "global warming theory" is nothing more than a "conspiracy" to control countries and corporations, as well as a convenient mechanism for obtaining funding for research related to climate change.

Added fuel to the fire was the so-called "Climategate" - a scandal associated with the leak of an archive of electronic correspondence, data files and programs for their processing from the Department of Climatology of the University of East Anglia in Norwich. In 2009, an unidentified person distributed via the Internet an archive file that contained information stolen from the Department of Climatology of the University of East Anglia, one of the three main providers of climate data for the IPCC at the UN.

• climatologists-supporters of the AGP theory hide information about the climate from opponents of the theory;
• distort the results of observations in order to confirm global warming;
• prevent the publication of scientific papers that do not agree with their views;
• delete files and correspondence, as long as they are not disclosed in accordance with freedom of information laws.

The link provides access to the data from the archive, according to which several independent investigations were carried out, in which the activities of the scientists who participated in this e-mail correspondence were studied. All these investigations justified the scientists, but the publication definitely gave a lot of food for thought!

The fact that Greenpeace, WWF and the Center for International Environmental Law are insisting that top managers of fossil fuel corporations should be held accountable for opposing policies aimed at combating climate change is already alarming, because the same the ill-fated Greenpeace simply “does not work”, where it doesn’t smell like big money, they are most often silent.

Figures and facts about climate change

The main point referred to by climatologists who support the theory of anthropogenic global warming is the process of melting glaciers in the Arctic and Antarctic. According to open statistics over the past fifty years, the temperature in the southwestern part of Antarctica has increased by 2.5 ° C. For example, in 2002, an iceberg with an area of ​​over 2,500 km² and a thickness of up to 200 meters broke away from the Larsen Ice Shelf, located in Antarctica, although this glacier remained stable for ten thousand years. The melting of the Antarctic ice shelf has resulted in the release of an impressive number of icebergs (more than a thousand icebergs) into the Weddell Sea. And although the area of ​​Antarctic glaciation is growing, the mass of its ice is decreasing.

Scientists also noted the fact that the process of permafrost degradation has accelerated since the early 1970s; according to statistics, the temperature of permafrost soils in Western Siberia increased by 1 °C, and in central Yakutia by 1.5 °C. On the neighboring continent in northern Alaska, the temperature of the top layer of frozen rocks has increased by 3 °C since the mid-1980s.

An indicative fact of global warming can be considered the discovery by researcher Dennis Schmitt in 2005 that a peninsula in Greenland, which back in 2002 was connected to Liverpool Land by ice, became an island. That is, for many years a thick layer of ice did not allow to discover that there was no land under it, and to understand that the researchers were facing an island surrounded by water, and not a peninsula. As a result, the newly minted was called literally "Warming Island".

P.S. Just the other day, I published about the myths of global warming in the English The Telegraph:

Climate scientists such as Professor Peter Wadhams (University of Cambridge) and Professor Wieslaw Maslowski (U.S. Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California) have regularly predicted a nearly complete melting of Arctic ice by 2016 in recent years. These disappointing forecasts were often published by the world's leading media, the BBC for example, and many other media.

The British climatologist Peter Wadhams even published the book A Farewell To Ice, which intimidates the complete loss of the Arctic ice cover ... But the latest satellite images of the Arctic showed that in 2016 there was more ice at the North Pole than in 2012 year.

After analyzing the data received from satellites, it became known that at the beginning of autumn 2016, the area of ​​ice cover in the Arctic was 1.09 million square kilometers, which is 21% more than in 2012, when the ice area was at its minimum.

Specialists from the American center NSIDC (National Snow and Ice Data Center) said that Wadhams and Maslowski were wrong in their forecasts, and they believe that it is not necessary to dramatize and sow unnecessary panic, much less provide unreliable data on the extent of global warming.

And for dessert, we left the opinion of the outrageous Anatoly Wasserman about global cataclysms, such as the greenhouse effect and global warming.

What threatens humanity with warming, and what to do to prevent a catastrophe

In recent years, the climate on Earth has changed markedly: some countries suffer from abnormal heat, others from too harsh and snowy winters, unusual for these places.

Ecologists talk about global climate change, including an increase in the average annual temperature, causing the melting of glaciers, and rising sea levels. In addition to warming, there is also an imbalance in all natural systems, which leads to a change in precipitation patterns, temperature anomalies and an increase in the frequency of extreme events such as hurricanes, floods and droughts.

According to scientists, for the ten months of 2015, the average temperature of the planet was 1.02 ° C higher than that recorded in the 19th century (when monitoring of global temperature changes began). The threshold of one degree was exceeded for the first time in modern history. Scientists agree that it is human activity - burning oil, gas and coal - that leads to the greenhouse effect, which causes an increase in average temperature. Experts point out that between 2000 and 2010 there was the most powerful increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the last 30 years. According to the World Meteorological Organization, in 2014 their concentration in the atmosphere reached an all-time high.

What threatens climate warming

If states do not start seriously dealing with the problem of environmental protection, by 2100 the temperature on the planet may rise by 3.7-4.8 °C. Climatologists warn: irreversible consequences for the environment will come already with a warming of more than 2 ° C.

In order to draw maximum attention to climate problems, the UN has attracted not only politicians and scientists, but also celebrities to the discussion. Hollywood actor Robert Redford warned in a statement that "the time for half-measures and climate change denial" is over for the international community.

What consequences await the planet if it is not possible to stop the increase in temperature?

Natural disasters

Climate zones will shift, weather changes will become more dramatic (hard frosts followed by sudden thaws in winter, an increase in the number of abnormally hot days in summer). The frequency and strength of abnormal events such as droughts and floods will increase.

The connection between climate change and the occurrence of natural disasters was proved by American scientists who found traces of warming when studying tropical cyclones in the Pacific Ocean, unusually high summer temperatures in Europe, China, South Korea and Argentina, as well as forest fires in the US state of California. Climate change has also catalyzed droughts in Africa and the Middle East, snowstorms in Nepal, and heavy rains that have caused flooding in Canada and New Zealand.

Territories unsuitable for life

Some countries may become uninhabitable by 2100 due to increased humidity and high average temperatures. According to a study by American scientists, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and other countries of the Middle East are at risk.

According to the calculations of climatologists, at the current growth rate of greenhouse gas emissions, by 2070 the average air temperature in the countries of the Persian Gulf may reach 74-77 °C. This will make the areas unsuitable for humans. An exception may be large metropolitan areas with a developed air conditioning system. But even in them people will be able to leave the house only at night.

Impact on biodiversity

According to some scientists, we are in the middle of the sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history. And this time this process is caused by human actions. If climate warming is not stopped, many ecosystems, the species of living beings that enter them, will become less diverse, less saturated.

There are predictions of extinction of up to 30-40% of plant and animal species, as their habitat will change faster than they can adapt to these changes.

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Drinking water shortages, famine and epidemics

UN experts warn that warming will negatively affect crop yields, especially in underdeveloped countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America, leading to food problems. According to scientists, by 2080 the number of people facing the threat of hunger could increase by 600 million people.

Another important consequence of climate change may be the lack of drinking water. In regions with arid climates (Central Asia, the Mediterranean, South Africa, Australia, etc.), the situation will be further aggravated due to a decrease in precipitation.

Starvation, lack of water, and insect migration can lead to an increase in epidemics and the spread of tropical diseases such as malaria and fever in the northern regions.

Climate change can affect not only human health, but also increase the risk of political divisions and conflicts over access to water and food resources.

Sea level rise

One of the most tangible effects of global warming is likely to be the melting of glaciers and rising sea levels. Millions of people along the coast will die from frequent flooding or be forced to relocate, UN analysts predict.

According to the expert community, sea level rise in the 21st century will be up to 1 m (in the 20th century - 0.1-0.2 m). In this case, lowlands, coastal areas and small islands will be the most vulnerable.

The Netherlands, Bangladesh and small island states such as the Bahamas and Maldives are the first to fall into the risk zone.

Significant areas may be flooded in countries such as Russia, USA, UK, Italy, Germany, Denmark, Belgium, Iraq, Thailand and Vietnam. Serious damage threatens China, where about 140 million people could lose their homes, and Japan, where more than 30 million people, a quarter of the country's population, could flood the houses.

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Estimated consequences for the Russian Federation

The climate in Russia is also noticeably changing. Sharp weather changes, abnormally high and abnormally low temperatures are more often observed.

According to the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation, in our country from 1990 to 2010 the number of natural disasters, such as floods, mudflows and hurricanes, has almost quadrupled and continues to increase by about 6-7% per year. Ecologists predict that their number could double over the next ten years.

According to the World Bank, the annual damage from the impact of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena in Russia is 30-60 billion rubles.

According to the calculations of Roshydromet, in Russia the average annual temperature is growing 2.5 times faster than in the whole world. The most active warming is in the northern regions of the Russian Federation, they add to the Ministry of Emergencies. Thus, in the Arctic, by the end of the 21st century, the temperature may rise by 7 °C. By the middle of the 21st century, the average winter temperature throughout Russia may increase by 2-5 °C. The increase in summer temperatures will be less pronounced and amount to 1-3 ° C by the middle of the century, rescuers believe.

The head of Roshydromet, Alexandra Frolova, believes that climate warming for Russia brings not only risks, but also benefits.

Warming threats:

An increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of droughts in some regions, extreme precipitation, floods, cases of soil waterlogging dangerous for agriculture - in others;

Increased fire hazard in forests and peatlands;

Violation of the habitual way of life of indigenous northern peoples;

Degradation of permafrost with damage to buildings and communications;

Violation of the ecological balance, displacement of some biological species by others;

An increase in electricity consumption for air conditioning in the summer season for a large area of ​​the country.

Positive changes:

Warming in the Arctic will increase the duration of navigation along the Northern Sea Route and facilitate the development of offshore oil and gas fields;

The heating season will be shortened, and, accordingly, energy consumption will be reduced;

The northern border of agriculture will shift to the north, which will increase the area of ​​agricultural land, especially in Western Siberia and the Urals.

Extinguishing peat bogs in the Tver region, 2014

© TASS/Sergey Bobylev

What to do

According to scientists, it is unlikely that humanity will be able to completely prevent climate change. However, the international community is able to contain the rise in temperature in order to avoid irreversible environmental consequences. To do this, it is necessary to limit greenhouse gas emissions, develop alternative energy and develop a strategy to reduce risks due to warming.

Adapting the life of society to new conditions

Plans to minimize damage from climate change should cover all areas of human activity, including health, agriculture and infrastructure.

In Russia, for example, it is necessary to change storm sewers, prepare for storm winds (recalculate the strength of structures), change the fire extinguishing system - droughts increase the fire hazard, Alexey Kokorin explains. In Kyrgyzstan, the snow border has risen in the Tien Shan, which caused problems with grazing - measures must be taken to preserve pastures.

However, different states have different opportunities to offset the impact of climate change. So, for example, Holland and Bangladesh are experiencing the same problems: there are more storms, the sea level has risen. But Holland already has a plan of action, they know how they will strengthen the dams, where they will get the funds from. But in Bangladesh, none of this, with 10 times the coastline and 10 times the population, and in dangerous areas live 100 million people who will need to be relocated somewhere.

Thus, adds Kokorin, most of the measures needed for adaptation are quite simple and clear, but their implementation requires funds and effective planning.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions

Climatologists estimate that to keep temperature rises within 2°C, countries need to halve global emissions by 2050 relative to 1990 levels, and cut to zero by the end of the 21st century.

According to PwC analysts, since 2000, Russia has reduced carbon dioxide emissions by an average of 3.6% per year, the UK - by 3.3%, France - by 2.7%, the USA - by 2.3%. The average annual reduction in carbon emissions over the past 15 years was 1.3%.

However, these efforts are not enough. To prevent irreversible climate change, the annual reduction in carbon dioxide emissions until 2100 should be at least 6.3%.

This means, on the one hand, it is necessary to introduce energy-saving technologies, on the other hand, to switch to alternative energy sources.

sun or atom

Several sources of energy are safe for the atmosphere in terms of emissions: hydropower, nuclear power plants and new renewable sources - the sun, wind, tides. Hydropower has physically visible limits (there are not so many rivers on Earth), wind and tides can only be used locally, so the main energy sources of the future are the Sun and the atom, says Professor Rafael Arutyunyan, Deputy Director of the Institute for the Safe Development of Nuclear Energy of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

According to the expert, based on the current level of technology development, nuclear energy looks more solid: the share of alternative renewable energy sources now accounts for 2% of world consumption, and the atom already provides 16% of the world's electricity (in developed countries - more than 70%, in the north - western Russia - 40%).

The advantage of nuclear energy is that it is a large energy industry, these are power plants for large industrial agglomerations, large cities.

The trump card of solar energy is the almost universal availability and dynamic development of technologies. In addition, solar energy is improving and can become much more economical, unlike nuclear energy, which can no longer be significantly cheaper, Alexei Kokorin, head of the Climate and Energy Program at WWF Russia, argues with supporters of the atom.

Advisor to the President of the Russian Federation and his representative on climate issues Alexander Bedritsky believes that it is impossible to completely solve the problem of reducing greenhouse gas emissions through renewable energy sources. The expert cited solar and wind energy as an example. According to him, it is impossible to provide industry with energy using solar panels in northern countries, such as Russia, where there is sun in the north for half a year, and no sun for half a year.

The same, according to Bedritsky, applies to wind energy. It is suitable for individual consumption, but not for industrial production. Windmills are used in many regions, mainly in coastal areas, but there is no continuous coverage of the territory.

In Russia, adds climate adviser to the President of the Russian Federation, about a third of the energy industry is based not on mineral raw materials, but on nuclear and hydropower.

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Who will pay

Negotiations to combat climate change are complicated by disagreements between rich and poor countries.

The transition to environmentally friendly energy sources requires significant costs. Developed countries insist that all negotiators contribute to these efforts. In turn, developing countries believe that industrial powers, which have long been polluting the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, are responsible for climate change.

According to the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, developed countries have a special responsibility in combating climate change and its consequences. In 2010, the Green Climate Fund was created to help developing countries under the auspices of the UN. Funds are allocated mostly by developed countries. It is planned that by 2020 the volume of the fund should be $100 billion, but so far it has just over $10 billion.

Now developed countries are experiencing a serious burden on state budgets, so they prefer climate financing to go through private investment or loans and borrowings, Alexey Kokorin explains. Vulnerable countries are not ready to take loans.

Despite the fact that Russia has no obligation to contribute funds to the Green Climate Fund, Moscow is ready to support it on a voluntary basis, adds Alexander Bedritsky. First of all, this concerns the CIS countries.

In November 2015, the fund approved $168 million for the first eight projects to help developing countries adapt to the negative impacts of climate change. These are three projects in Africa, three in the Asia-Pacific region and two in Latin America.

Waste incineration in India

© AP Photo/Anupam Nath

Paris conference and new agreement

On December 12, 2015, at the UN World Climate Conference in Paris, 195 delegations from around the world approved a global agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2020.

April 22, 2016 1 . From Russia, the document was signed by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Khloponin.

The agreement will enter into force after it has been ratified by 55 countries, which account for at least 55% of total global greenhouse gas emissions.

Basic provisions of the document

The main goal of the new agreement, which was confirmed by all participating countries, is to achieve a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and thereby keep the increase in the average temperature on the planet within 1.5-2 °C.

Currently, the efforts of the world community are not enough to curb warming, the document notes. Thus, the level of cumulative emissions risks reaching 55 gigatonnes in 2030, while, according to UN experts, this maximum mark should not exceed 40 gigatonnes. "In this regard, the countries participating in the Paris Agreement need to take more intensive measures," the document emphasizes.

The agreement has a framework character, its participants have yet to determine the volumes of greenhouse gas emissions, measures to prevent climate change, as well as the rules for implementing this document. But the key provisions have already been agreed upon.

The parties to the agreement undertake:

Adopt national plans for emission reduction, technological upgrading and adaptation to climate change; these obligations of the state must be reviewed upward every five years;

Consistently reduce CO2 emissions into the atmosphere; for this, by 2020 it is necessary to develop national strategies for the transition to a carbon-free economy;

Allocate $100 billion annually to the Green Climate Fund to help underdeveloped and most vulnerable countries. After 2025, this amount should be revised upwards "taking into account the needs and priorities of developing countries";

Establish an international exchange of "green" technologies in the field of energy efficiency, industry, construction, agriculture, etc.

US President Barack Obama

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The agreement aims to reduce the carbon pollution that threatens our planet, as well as create new jobs and grow the economy through investment in low-carbon technologies. This will help delay or avoid some of the worst effects of climate change.

US President Barack Obama

By the end of the summit, 189 states had submitted preliminary plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The five top emitting countries provided the following reduction figures from 1990:

European Union - 40%;

Russia - 30%;

USA - 12-14%;

China - 6-18%;

Japan - 13%.

Officially, countries must announce their commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the day the document is signed. The most important condition is that they must not be lower than the already declared goals in Paris.

To monitor the implementation of the Paris Agreement and the obligations assumed by the countries, it is proposed to form a special working group. It is planned to start work in 2016.

Disagreements and ways to resolve them

"should" replaced with "should"

At the stage of discussion of the treaty, Russia advocated that the agreement be legally binding on all countries. The United States opposed this. According to an unnamed diplomat quoted by the Associated Press, the US delegation insisted that the word "should" be replaced by "should" in the final document in the section on emissions reductions.

This structure of the treaty avoids the ratification of the document in the US Congress, which is extremely skeptical about Obama's environmental policy.

No specific obligations

Another RF proposal was to share responsibility for emissions among all countries. However, this was opposed by developing countries. In their opinion, most of the burden should fall on developed countries, which have long been the main sources of emissions. Meanwhile, now the top five "polluters" of the planet, along with the US and the EU, include China and India, which are considered developing countries. Russia is in fifth place in terms of CO2 emissions.

Global warming is perhaps one of the most publicized environmental problems. Everywhere you can find activists in the struggle to reduce the impact of humanity on the planet's climate. If, in fact, humanity is causing a marked rise in the level of the world's seas by producing carbon dioxide, which is often considered the cause of global warming, then, of course, something must be done about it.

But what if global warming is caused not by the activities of mankind, but by some other processes? The theory that mankind's use of fossil fuels leads to a significant increase in the temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans has been criticized by some scientists. What if the increase in temperature is not as significant as the global warming campaigners claim? Scientists give ambiguous answers to these questions, but observational data indicate a slowdown in the rate of temperature increase.

The topic of global warming is very politicized, since the slogans of combating warming are a good leverage in foreign policy. And it is very difficult to find a really objective assessment of this problem.

Global warming or the Little Ice Age

Global warming is the process of increasing the average annual temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and the oceans.

According to RSS satellite data, from September 1996 to January 2014 there was no global warming for 209 months (17 years 5 months), even a slight decrease in temperature. Despite record high growth rates of CO 2 concentration.

Hans von Storch, a climatologist and professor at the meteorological institute at the University of Hamburg, acknowledged that there had not been significant temperature increases in the past 15 years.

Could it be that "global cooling" has begun? Khabibullo Ismailovich Abdusamatov, Russian Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Head of the Solar Space Research Department at the Pulkovo Observatory, believes that the Little Ice Age should begin approximately from 2014, whose peak will be in 2055, plus or minus 11 years.

However, according to most scientists, global warming is still there. Since 1880 (when relatively accurate thermometers appeared), the temperature has risen by 0.6 ° C - 0.8 ° C.

Practice is the best criterion for the correctness of a theory.

The temperatures calculated according to the models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) depend on the concentration of CO 2 , it should be noted that its concentration has increased significantly in recent times. Since 1979, with relatively accurate temperature information available from satellites, observed temperatures have increased. However, as you can see from the animated graph, the theoretical temperatures are much higher than the observed temperatures.

Computer models of the IPCC give rise to temperatures twice as high as those observed in reality. And in fact, none of the IPCC models provide data that would correspond to the absence of global warming in recent times.

“Until now, no one has been able to come up with a convincing explanation for why climate change might pause,” Hans von Storch told Der Spiegel in June 2013.

“According to most climate models, we should have seen an increase in temperature of about 0.25 °C over the past 10 years. That did not happen. In fact, over the past 15 years there has been an increase of only 0.06°C – a value very close to zero,” Storch told Der Spiegel. Apparently, the calculations of the average temperature are carried out in different ways, since this value is slightly different from the zero value in the temperature change presented in the first graph.

Is there scientific evidence that global warming is caused by human activities?

Global warming has been attributed to human activities, such as the burning of unprecedented amounts of fossil fuels, which increase the amount of carbon dioxide, which is a greenhouse gas.

Polls show that 97% of climate scientists and publicists believe that "global average temperatures have risen" over the past century; they also believe that human activity is an important contributor to global average temperature change. But the proof of the validity of the theory cannot be the number of its supporters, the theory is proved by practice.

The main argument of supporters of the theory of influence is the observed warming of the climate over the past century with the simultaneous accumulation of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It is because of this that the hypothesis of greenhouse gases is taken on faith with little or no verification. But recent trends in climate change, which are presented in the figures above, indicate the likely fallacy of this hypothesis.

In the video recording of the program "Obvious - Incredible", Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, the creator of the adiabatic theory of the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere, which explains the evolution of terrestrial climates, Sorokhtin Oleg Georgievich gives a scientific view of the problem of global warming. In accordance with his theory, the accumulation of CO 2 in the atmosphere, other things being equal, can only lead to a cooling of the climate and some increase in synoptic activity in the Earth's troposphere. The scientist associates climate warming with solar activity, as does Khabibullo Ismailovich Abdusamatov, who is also one of the main critics of the theory that anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions create a greenhouse effect that leads to global warming.

Canadian environmentalist Patrick Moore, who is one of the co-founders of Greenpeace, speaking before the US Congress, said that climate change, in particular, the gradual increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface over the past century, was not the fault of man.

"There is no scientific evidence that anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere are the main cause of the slight warming of the Earth's atmosphere over the past century."
“If there was such proof, it would have already been presented to mankind. But so far there is no scientific evidence for these hypotheses.

Some scientists argue that there are no greenhouse gases. For example, Dr. Pierre Latour, vice chairman of the United Kingdom-based association Principia Scientific International (PSI), argues that CO 2 concentration does not affect atmospheric temperature, but temperature does affect CO 2 concentration. He argues that greenhouse gases do not exist and CO 2 is not an air pollutant, it is just a nutrient for plants. The website of this organization constantly publishes materials that refute the greenhouse effect of CO 2 .

Thus, part of the scientific community does not support the theory that an increase in the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere leads to global warming of the planet's climate. In recent years, significant climate warming has not been observed, despite the increase in carbon dioxide concentrations. So perhaps we should be more concerned about solving other environmental problems that may be more serious than the problem of global warming.

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