An armed conflict between NATO and Russia could result in a nuclear war, according to the American publication The National Interest.
Here, they write, how good it was with the Soviet Union - it promised not to attack first.+ This, of course, raises the question: if so, why do you even need an organization like NATO? Well, okay, what's done is done.
But now representatives of the alliance are haunted by the fact that Russia is taking the place of the USSR on the world stage. And with a different doctrine: now it allows the use of nuclear weapons if the existence of the state as such is threatened.
And The National Interest has already come up with a threat: NATO will attack, so Russia will respond - what treachery. According to the journalists, Moscow will launch an attack on the Baltic states, the alliance will defend it, apparently threatening the existence of Russia, and Russia will use nuclear weapons in response. The script is ready, all that remains is to film it and put it on air.
As stated in the material, all this nonsense was written back in 2016, but due to the interest of readers it was reprinted. In general, they are even too lazy to invent and hope that the re-publication will instantly convince everyone who was still in doubt these year and a half. Although some might have a question: you promised the year before last that Russia was preparing an attack on the Baltic states - and Where?..
Readers in the comments on the site, in principle, cannot understand why Russia might need Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia and why an entire article is based on this initially insane assumption. Some remind that, as a rule, it is not Russia that attacks Western countries, but quite the opposite - Napoleon, Hitler - and NATO has been slowly approaching Russian borders all these years. Others cannot understand why it is necessary to fight with Russia in the first place.
And it's really unclear. But surely journalists and military officials will come up with something or find some forgotten article from three years ago - all means are good to increase the military budget.
In June of this year, representatives of 122 states voted at UN headquarters in New York to adopt a treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons, which should come into force once fifty countries have ratified it. The first article of this peace document reads:
Each State Party undertakes never, under any circumstances, to develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.
Experts speaking in support of the document remind that even a regional nuclear war can lead to a global humanitarian and environmental catastrophe. Their arguments sound convincing and alarming against the backdrop of sharply escalating rhetoric from the nuclear powers - US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. In March of this year, American analyst and nuclear weapons specialist Matthias Eken published his calculations in The Conversation magazine, and we present his assessments of the consequences of nuclear war on the PM website.
India VS Pakistan
The most studied option is an exchange of nuclear strikes between India and Pakistan, 50 on each side, with explosions mainly over cities; experts believe that this is what a nuclear war could look like between states with a total of 220 nuclear warheads. In this scenario, 20 million people will die in the first week of the war - directly during the explosions, as well as from the fires and radiation caused by them. This in itself is terrible; The First World War claimed fewer lives. But the destructive effect of atomic bombs will not end there: fires ignited by nuclear explosions will raise clouds of soot and smoke; radioactive particles will enter the stratosphere.
According to calculations, the Indo-Pakistan nuclear conflict will lead to the release of 6.5 tons of radioactive matter into the upper atmosphere; soot and soot screen the sun's rays, which can lead to a significant drop in the average annual temperature at the Earth's surface; The cooling may last for decades.
Nuclear winter, in turn, will affect agriculture. Corn yields in the United States (the world leader in its production) will fall by 12% in the first 10 years of cooling, rice yields in China will decrease by 17%, and winter wheat by 31%.
The world's grain reserves today are sufficient to meet global demand for 100 days. Once these reserves are depleted, a nuclear winter following the Indo-Pakistani nuclear conflict threatens nearly a third of the world's population—two billion people—with starvation.
USA VS DPRK
Another scenario is a nuclear exchange between North Korea and the United States. The nuclear arsenal, according to political scientists, is small, so the total power of the explosions will be less than in the Indo-Pakistani version, but will still lead to many deaths. In addition, such a scenario threatens further confrontation between nuclear powers in other regions of the planet.
Russia VS USA
The worst possible scenario is a nuclear war between the United States and Russia. Most of both countries' nuclear warheads are 10 to 50 times more powerful than the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima. If both states use strategic nuclear weapons (designed to destroy non-combat targets such as enemy cities and infrastructure), about 150 tons of soot will be released into the atmosphere, and the average temperature at the surface will drop by 8 ° C. Under these conditions, agriculture throughout the world will suffer a catastrophe, and most of humanity will be left without food.
The worst possible scenario is a nuclear war between the United States and Russia.
All the described scenarios, Eken believes, are unlikely, and everyone - especially politicians and the media - should avoid apocalyptic scenarios and alarmist rhetoric. The analyst recalls that by 2017, people had already detonated more than 2,000 nuclear bombs of varying power, and corn, rice and wheat would be born as if nothing had happened. But this does not mean that one can give up on the most unlikely scenarios of a nuclear war: five members of the club of nuclear powers - Great Britain, China, Russia, the USA and France - have nuclear warheads and delivery systems, in addition - India, North Korea and Pakistan; It is assumed that the nuclear bomb was developed by the Israeli military; Iran's nuclear program raises questions. It is better to remember the possible consequences of using nuclear weapons than to forget about them.
In the context of growing confrontation between the United States and Russia, we are increasingly beginning to think about the likelihood of a full-scale nuclear war. This article examines a nuclear exchange scenario. Who is more likely to survive? Whose strikes will be more effective? Can anyone win such a war? Read the article and watch the video (in English at the very end).
We also invite you to get acquainted with other ways of how you can destroy all of humanity.
Welcome, Commissar Binkov is with you. Today's video is called "Russia vs. USA: Global Nuclear Confrontation." As you can imagine, this time nuclear weapons are allowed. Actually, this time we will talk only about him.
So how would a sudden nuclear exchange between these two superpowers work? According to the scenario, the launch of the first missile will be preceded by weeks of rising tensions and preparations for a collision. To track an intercontinental ballistic missile, you need to have a network of early warning stations at your disposal. Typically, the first warning signals come from satellites monitoring the hot emissions that accompany large rockets entering orbit. The United States has more such satellites, which increases the likelihood of timely detection. Spies can also warn about mass missile launches, since the locations of missile launch silos are known, and it is almost impossible to hide the launches. Finally, incoming missiles and their warheads can be tracked by early warning radar, giving about 15 additional minutes before the first strikes.
The round shape of the Earth will hide intercontinental ballistic missiles from radar until the very last stage of their flight. Missiles in vertical silos have predictable approach vectors; Mobile launchers mounted on moving platforms can bring many more surprises. Submarine-launched missiles are supposedly the most unpredictable. To try to launch them, you need to cross the ocean and survive. But it is likely that the safer way to use submarines is proximity to the North Pole, which will also reduce travel time and the time it takes for warning systems to activate.
Is there defense against intercontinental ballistic missiles? On paper, to some extent, yes. For decades, both sides had anti-missile systems, but not many. Even today, defenses are designed primarily for limited strikes by small countries rather than large-scale nuclear exchanges. There are additional systems that, in theory, could intercept missiles. But they were designed for lower speed targets, and their launch platforms would need to be ideally positioned in advance. None of these systems will be able to “catch” a missile until the warhead separates from it, and few of them will be able to be intercepted, due to the low probability of interception and the small number of assets deployed for this purpose.
But ballistic missiles are not only a way to launch a nuclear strike. Since at the moment there is nothing faster than them, they will be accompanied by attacks from cruise missiles and even, possibly, Boomerangs. It is important to note that only a small proportion of bombers can be kept ready for patrols and operational missions. By the time the first wave of missiles is launched, their airfields will most likely be destroyed.
Moreover, intercepting bombers and cruise missiles may be easier than intercepting ICBMs, leading to fewer successful salvos. So cruise missiles and bombs will not make much of a contribution to the overall scale of destruction. The main blow, of course, will fall on ICBMs and missiles launched from submarines. The US has slightly more missiles and can carry more warheads on average. However, the missiles deployed by the US currently have fewer warheads than are available because prepared warheads cost extra money. Russia, however, appears to be seeking to deploy as many missiles as needed to bring all warheads into combat readiness. In the event of a potential war, they will be able to deploy additional warheads if time and missile design permit.
It is important to note that almost all land-based missiles and warheads will be ready within a few weeks, but submarines will require relatively more time for maintenance and preparation for installation.
In reality, in a couple of weeks it will be possible to prepare no more than a third of the total number of submarines for patrol. However, as during the Cold War, some submarines will be able to launch missiles directly from their ports. We can expect that a total of no more than 2/3 of all submarines will launch their shells. And some American submarines will be on patrol even before the start of hostilities with fewer warheads.
The US will also be able to drop slightly more warheads using bombers, since their total number exceeds that of the enemy, as well as the number of warheads on board each aircraft. The total warhead reserves of both countries are several times greater. But with only a few weeks of preparation, as assumed in the scenario, many of them simply will not be put into operation on time. These figures also include tactical nuclear weapons, of which Russia has many more than the United States due to its different doctrine, which requires the storage of nuclear weapons in the event of a land war in Europe. In a nuclear exchange where one side unexpectedly presses the red button first, the one with the best pre-emptive capabilities and the most launchers will win. But this scenario does not provide for such a one-sided launch. It is also possible for events to develop with a partial or complete lack of time for preparation, where days are already counting. In this case, Russia may have more advantages, since the missiles ready for combat are already filled to capacity with warheads. Such a sudden, one-sided start to war may cause more damage to the opponent, but in reality no one will want to launch an unprovoked attack. A more plausible nuclear exchange, as illustrated in this scenario, would result from misunderstandings and accidents that would ultimately lead to all-out nuclear war.
Early warning radars, underwater communications links and command centers will be prime targets, as will silo-based launchers on both sides in the hope of destroying at least some of them before activation. Submarines located in close proximity to the coast of their country will be the most difficult to find and destroy. But their capabilities are somewhat limited compared to huge silo-based missiles.
Various military bases will also be targeted. Therefore, the likelihood of further bomber attacks following the first wave is extremely low. There is a possibility that a small part of the launched missiles will not work correctly, and some will be intercepted. Even more bombers and cruise missiles will be intercepted.
For several decades, doctrines on both sides have suggested that low-yield warheads are best because more can fit inside a missile.
So what else will be targeted? Anything that can significantly harm the military and economic potential of the other side. The missiles will also be aimed at many cities, but after some time it will become clear that it makes more sense to use warheads against some factory, large port or power plant than against a small town. This scenario thus considers an option in which most warheads will hit military targets, some will hit industrial targets, and less than a third of their total number will be used against large populated areas. But military and industrial targets are often located near cities, resulting in an increased number of civilian casualties.
Now let's look at the consequences of a nuclear explosion. If the detonation occurs close to the ground, there will be more radioactive fallout as the emitted particles fall into the soil, which in turn is released into the air. But the ground and nearby buildings will create a kind of “shield” that will make other effects less lethal at a distance. A detonation high in the air would kill many more people instantly, but there would be less radiation-contaminated soil scattered about, reducing the danger from radiation risk in the long term. The probability of destruction of concrete structures at a distance is also low.
The explosion creates a fireball that is relatively small compared to other effects. The shock wave demolishes buildings. There is also a burst of direct radiation that lasts only a second, but is fatal to anyone nearby. And finally, heat, that is, thermal radiation. Direct exposure to its rays can be fatal even at some distance. One of the key points is protection against radiation absorption. All given indicators related to a single unprotected target at a given distance. But if a person stands behind any structure, it can save his life.
In general, if a brick building has not collapsed, it will largely protect a person from the effects of radiation and direct heat rays, even at a closer distance than the specified one. According to studies, the number of victims inside homes is approximately 9% lower than when people are in open spaces.
So how many would a nuclear explosion kill in, say, downtown New York? Regardless of whether people are in buildings or not, everyone within a two-kilometer radius of the supposed epicenter will die. An explosion with a yield of 450 kilotons usually kills 1.2 million people, despite the fact that they are in open space. It’s better, of course, to be inside a building or underground, because thanks to anticipatory systems, the majority of the population will have plenty of time to hide. Another question is how to get out of the rubble alive.
According to the map, a dozen or more warheads would be needed to achieve a high level of casualties in the most populous part of New York. Moscow has more people and more territories. To fully cover it, several more warheads will be required. In the United States, there are fewer cities with a population exceeding 1 million people than in Russia, but there are more medium-sized cities with populations of less than 500 thousand people. The average population density of Russian cities is slightly higher than in America, as there are more apartment buildings there. American families are more likely to live in detached buildings. At close distances, it is their houses that will be swept away by the consequences of the explosion and subsequent fire. The two countries' overall population densities favor the United States slightly more, and that's because a huge part of Russia is largely uninhabited. All this suggests that the United States, if it has more warheads at its disposal and they all successfully achieve their goals, will destroy about 30% more Russian cities than Russia can destroy American ones. But since the United States has more cities with average populations, the use of Russian shells will be more effective.
Both sides - the USA to a greater extent than Russia - will find a lack of large cities on which they would not mind spending warheads. As already mentioned, given the size of certain cities, they are more likely to be used to hit military or industrial targets. The advantage here is on the US side, since the Russian army is not so numerous, and fewer warheads may be required for the entire range of military targets. This way, America will be able to spend more missiles on economic purposes and cities.
The total number of victims of the explosions and their direct consequences, such as injuries, fires and fallen buildings, will most likely be tens of millions of people. Not all of them will die instantly; some will die due to their injuries within a few days. Medical care will not be available in most cases. Millions of people, among other things, will die due to the fallout of radioactive particles that enter the body days and even months after the war. Using the bombing of Hiroshima as an example, 20% more people would die from radiation sickness within a few months. To a lesser extent, the causes of death would be all sorts of cancers and other long-term health problems. Many people would die over the next few years. The indirect consequences will be much more dangerous. Spreading diseases would kill many, and the sudden disappearance of the modern state and infrastructure would lead to food and housing shortages. Riots will begin due to the lack of an organized law enforcement system. Tens of millions will die in the next year or so.
Finally, the consequences of a nuclear winter cannot be discounted. Due to dust released into the atmosphere and firestorms, the temperature on our planet will decrease and the climate will change accordingly. This will lead to problems with crops and livestock. It will be impossible to predict the exact range of effects, as all studies conducted in recent decades have suggested different results. It is important to note that nuclear winter will affect not only the two warring sides, but the entire world as a whole. One hundred million or even a billion people around the world will die of hunger; it is impossible to give a more precise figure. Most likely, Russia and the United States will cease to exist in the form in which we know them now. Governments will fall apart and the geopolitical map will be redefined as a new world order emerges; Only third countries will benefit. Which makes such a two-sided nuclear war unlikely. There will be no winner as such, only the side that has lost less than the other. In the end, the only winning move would be to not start this war at all.
A nuclear war is usually called a hypothetical clash between countries or military-political blocs that have thermonuclear or nuclear weapons and put them into action. Atomic weapons in such a conflict will become the main means of destruction. The history of nuclear war, fortunately, has not yet been written. But after the outbreak of the Cold War in the second half of the last century, nuclear war between the United States and the USSR was considered a likely development.
- What will happen if there is a nuclear war?
- Doctrines of nuclear war in the past
- US nuclear doctrine during the Thaw
- Russian nuclear doctrine
What will happen if there is a nuclear war?
Many people fearfully asked the question: what will happen if a nuclear war breaks out? This conceals a large-scale environmental danger:
- The explosions would release enormous amounts of energy.
- Ash and soot from the fires would obscure the sun for a long time, which would lead to the effect of “nuclear night” or “nuclear winter” with a sharp drop in temperature on the planet.
- The apocalyptic picture would be complemented by radioactive contamination, which would have no less catastrophic consequences for life.
It was assumed that most countries of the world would inevitably be drawn into such a war, directly or indirectly.
The danger of a nuclear war is that it would lead to a global environmental disaster and even the death of our civilization.
What will happen in the event of a nuclear war? A powerful explosion is only part of the disaster:
- As a result of a nuclear explosion, a giant fireball is formed, the heat from which chars or completely burns all living things at a sufficiently large distance from the epicenter of the explosion.
- A third of the energy is released in the form of a powerful light pulse, a thousand times brighter than the radiation of the sun, so it instantly ignites all easily flammable materials (fabrics, paper, wood), and causes third-degree burns to people.
- But the primary fires do not have time to flare up, since they are partially extinguished by a powerful blast wave. Flying burning debris, sparks, household gas explosions, short circuits and burning petroleum products cause extensive and long-lasting secondary fires.
- Individual fires merge into a terrifying fire tornado that can easily burn down any metropolis. Such firestorms, created by the Allies, destroyed Dresden and Hamburg during the Second World War.
- Since massive fires release heat in huge quantities, heated air masses rush upward, forming hurricanes at the surface of the earth, bringing new portions of oxygen to the fire.
- Dust and soot rise to the stratosphere, forming a giant cloud there that blocks out the sunlight. And prolonged darkening leads to nuclear winter.
The earth after a nuclear war would hardly remain even a little like its former self; it would be scorched, and almost all living things would die.
An instructive video about what will happen if a nuclear war breaks out:
Doctrines of nuclear war in the past
The first doctrine (theory, concept) of nuclear war arose immediately after the end of World War II, in the United States. Then it was invariably reflected in the strategic concepts of NATO and the United States. However, the military doctrine of the USSR also assigned a decisive role to nuclear missile weapons in the next big war.
Initially, a massive nuclear war scenario was envisaged with the unlimited use of all available nuclear weapons, and their targets would be not only military, but also civilian targets. It was believed that in such a conflict the country that would be the first to launch a massive nuclear strike against the enemy, the purpose of which was the preemptive destruction of its nuclear weapons, would gain an advantage.
But there was the main problem of a nuclear war - a preventive nuclear attack might not be so effective, and the enemy would be able to launch a retaliatory nuclear strike on industrial centers and large cities.
Since the late 50s, a new concept of “limited nuclear war” has emerged in the United States. In the 70s, according to this concept, various weapons systems could be used in a hypothetical armed conflict, including operational-tactical and tactical nuclear weapons, which had restrictions on the scale of use and means of delivery. In such a conflict, atomic weapons would only be used to destroy military and important economic facilities. If history could be distorted, nuclear wars in the recent past could realistically follow a similar scenario.
One way or another, the United States still remains the only state that in practice used nuclear weapons in 1945 not against the military, but dropped 2 bombs on the civilian population of Hiroshima (August 6) and Nagasaki (August 9).
Hiroshima
On August 6, 1945, under the guise of the Potsdam Declaration, which set an ultimatum regarding the immediate surrender of Japan, the American government sent an American bomber to the Japanese Islands, and at 08:15 Japanese time it dropped the first nuclear bomb, codenamed “Baby,” on the city of Hiroshima.
The power of this charge was relatively small - about 20,000 tons of TNT. The explosion of the charge occurred at an altitude of about 600 meters above the surface of the earth, and its epicenter was above the Sima hospital. It was not by chance that Hiroshima was chosen as the target of a demonstrative nuclear strike - it was there at that time that the general headquarters of the Japanese Navy and the second general staff of the Japanese army were located.
- The explosion destroyed a large part of Hiroshima.
- Over 70,000 people were killed instantly.
- Near 60,000 died later from wounds, burns and radiation sickness.
- There was a zone of complete destruction within a radius of about 1.6 kilometers, while the fires spread over an area of 11.4 square meters. km.
- 90% of the city's buildings were either completely destroyed or severely damaged.
- The tram system miraculously survived the bombing.
In the six months following the bombing, they died from its consequences. 140,000 people.
This “insignificant”, according to the military, charge once again proved that the consequences of a nuclear war for humanity are destructive, as for a race.
Sad video about the nuclear attack on Hiroshima:
Nagasaki
On August 9 at 11:02, another American plane dropped another nuclear charge, “Fat Man,” on the city of Nagasaki. It was detonated high above the Nagasaki Valley, where industrial plants were located. The second American nuclear attack on Japan in a row caused further catastrophic destruction and loss of life:
- 74,000 Japanese died instantly.
- 14,000 buildings were completely destroyed.
In fact, these terrible moments can be called the days when a nuclear war almost started, since bombs were dropped on civilians, and only a miracle stopped the moment when the world was on the brink of nuclear war.
US nuclear doctrine during the Thaw
At the end of the Cold War, the American doctrine of limited nuclear war was transformed into the concept of counterproliferation. It was first voiced by US Secretary of Defense L. Espin in December 1993. The Americans considered that it was no longer possible to achieve this goal with the help of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, therefore, at critical moments, the United States reserved the right to carry out “disarmament strikes” on the nuclear facilities of undesirable regimes.
In 1997, a directive was adopted according to which the US Army must be prepared to strike foreign facilities for the production and storage of biological, chemical and nuclear weapons. And in 2002, the concept of counterproliferation entered the American national security strategy. Within its framework, the United States intended to destroy nuclear facilities in Korea and Iran or take control of Pakistani facilities.
Russian nuclear doctrine
Russia's military doctrine also periodically changes its wording. In the latter option, Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons if not only nuclear or other types of weapons of mass destruction, but also conventional weapons were used against it or its allies, if this threatens the very foundations of the existence of the state, which could become one of the reasons for nuclear war. This speaks to the main thing - the likelihood of a nuclear war currently exists quite acutely, but the rulers understand that no one can survive in this conflict.
Russian nuclear weapons
An alternative history with nuclear war was developed in Russia. In 2016, the US State Department estimated, based on the data provided under the START-3 treaty, that the Russian army deployed 508 strategic nuclear delivery vehicles:
- intercontinental ballistic missiles;
- strategic bombers;
- missiles on submarines.
There are 847 nuclear charge carriers in total, on which 1,796 charges are installed. It should be noted that nuclear weapons in Russia are being reduced quite intensively - over six months their number decreases by 6%.
With such weapons and more than 10 countries in the world that have officially confirmed the presence of nuclear weapons, the threat of nuclear war is a global problem, the prevention of which is a guarantee of life on Earth.
Are you afraid of nuclear war? Do you think it will come and how soon? Share your opinion or guesses in the comments.
After Donald Trump's announcement about the use of nuclear weapons, the hands of the Doomsday Clock, reflecting the level of danger of nuclear war, stepped forward by 30 seconds. The decision was made after analyzing new risks. This suggests that in America they are aware of the possibility of such a development of events and want to protect themselves as much as possible from time pressure.
A nuclear conflict may begin due to unforeseen developments in Ukraine, Transcaucasia, Central Asia, or during US military maneuvers near the borders of the DPRK. We will take this scenario as the most likely.
Korea is a hot spot in Southeast Asia
Pyongyang conducted five nuclear tests: in 2006, 2009, 2013 and 2016, with two last year. After this, the UN Security Council imposed sanctions against the DPRK and issued resolutions prohibiting it from developing nuclear weapons and means of their delivery. Pyongyang did not recognize these documents.
According to the military-strategic plans of the US Department of Defense, there are possible options for the use of American armed forces in Southeast Asia, including to help South Korea in the event of an escalation of the situation. In particular, the Committee of Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces has created two constantly adjusted plans for conducting combat operations in Asia with the use of nuclear weapons (nuclear weapons). One concerns participation in the defense of South Korea from possible intervention (OPLAN 5027). The other is intended to ensure the protection of the Korean Peninsula from invasion by potential enemy forces in the event of any other emergencies and events that may occur there (OPLAN 5077).
China is another headache for the United States. In January, Beijing redeployed DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missiles to the northeastern part (Heilongjiang province), bordering the Russian Primorsky and Khabarovsk territories. The launch weight of the DF-41 is about 80 tons. For comparison: the weight of the Russian Topol-M mobile-based ICBM does not exceed 46.5 tons. The DF-41 can carry up to ten multiple warheads with a yield of 150 kilotons each or have a monoblock warhead greater than one megaton. Flight range is from 12 to 15 thousand kilometers. The redeployment demonstrates the need for the Chinese armed forces to strike the mainland United States. The positional area of Chinese ICBMs turns out to be closer, for example, to Chicago than to Moscow or St. Petersburg.
Taking into account the officially announced and already implemented geostrategic priorities of the team of the new American president, who has named China as the main threat, Beijing’s military preparations are taking on a completely different color. In the near future, China may well face unfriendly, or even openly hostile, actions by the United States, and not only of an economic nature. Trump's alleged anti-Chinese steps may include an escalation of tensions around Taiwan and a return to the issue of the legality of China's presence on the disputed islands in the South China Sea. Washington can easily use these weaker points in Beijing’s foreign policy to resolve the “Chinese issue.”
Timeline of Armageddon
The Americans have very specific plans for unleashing and waging modern wars, taking into account the practice of using two nuclear bombs in World War II, as well as analyzing the results of exercises using nuclear weapons. Command and staff games are in use, in which numerous scenarios are rehearsed, compiled by research institutes (such as the Brookings Institution) and centers (the Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University). And everywhere in the final part - nuclear war. Moreover, two specific options are being considered for its start in 2019 and 2020, despite the fact that the final result is mutual destruction of the warring parties. The supposed enemy is a coalition of Russia and China.
Analysts in the USA and Russia calculated how events would develop using supercomputers in hours and minutes.
August 2019. Beijing says it has the military power to thwart any attempt by Taiwan to declare independence. Warns that its nuclear weapons arsenal could be used against American carrier strike forces if the Americans interfere in China's internal affairs.
March 2020. Taiwan's new leadership removes the ruling Nationalist Party from power through elections. At the helm in Taipei is the Democratic Progressive Party (DDP).
April 2020. The PRC signs an agreement with the Russian Federation on the joint use of the GLONASS navigation system. Gains the ability to install its elements on warships and other weapon systems, which significantly increases their combat capabilities and guidance accuracy.
May 2020. Chen Shui-bian was inaugurated as President of Taiwan. In his first speech, Chen denounces the “Two Countries, One Nation” agreement with China and declares that during his tenure he intends to build the country’s policy as independent of the PRC.
June 2020. China breaks off all contacts with Taiwan. The news of Mr. Chen's presidential speech is brought to the attention of the Chinese public, and this causes concern within the country. Chinese officials have harbored hatred of the United States since the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade during the Kosovo War.
August 2020. The United States is beginning to supply Taiwan with weapons necessary to create an “anti-missile shield” on the island’s territory, in particular the Patriot PAC 2.
September 2020. Chinese fighters are being deployed to Fujian province, located near Taiwan.
October 2020. The United States is sending the aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk with a group of escort ships to Sydney, under the guise of conducting a “goodwill” mission there. Beijing is deploying several ships of its navy to the conflict area. The American government declares its determination to protect Taiwan from aggression.
November 1, 2020. The Australian ECHELON communication intercept system at Pine Gap records an increase in the intensity of military communications between Beijing and a combat group in the Taiwan area.
November 4, 2020, 4.00. China launches a CSS-7 SRBM missile, equipped with a 250-kiloton nuclear warhead, against heavily defended Taiwanese facilities. At the same time, a nuclear device emitting a powerful electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) is detonated at high altitude over Taipei. The main radio-electronic equipment, command and control systems of the Taiwanese Armed Forces are disabled. Shortly after the HEMP detonation, a significant number of cruise missiles are launched against the main military installations located on the island. They put most of the country's 400 combat aircraft out of action. An armada of Chinese warships is blockading Taiwan's main ports.
November 9, 2020. American fighters attack the enemy in mainland China and in this chaos, the plane of the Russian president, who by that time accidentally ended up over one of the NATO countries, is forced to make an emergency landing, but he makes attempts to return to his homeland. War is declared on the Russian Federation as an ally of the PRC.
Descent into Chaos
November 11, 2020. Russia attacks US military satellites: two ground-based laser systems are used to disable reconnaissance vehicles flying in low orbits around the Earth. Interceptors are launched designed to destroy or destroy spacecraft in other orbits. Part of the Russian civilian population is taking refuge in bomb shelters and metro tunnels, and is being transported from cities to towns and villages.
November 12, 2020. Global-scale military operations using nuclear weapons will begin when the Russian Federation launches a preemptive strike. More than a thousand Russian missiles, carrying 5,400 warheads, are launched as a counterforce strike against the United States and its NATO allies.
12.05 PM CDT. Nuclear explosions occur on several Russian satellites in low orbits while passing over US territory. Most unprotected computers and related equipment break down, communication systems, information stored in storage devices, and electricity supply systems on a nationwide scale are destroyed. Vehicles using electronic equipment fail. Civilian and military casualties are observed. Numerous civilian systems and structures in the continental United States were disabled.
American strategic bombers take off from permanent airfields. The air force includes twenty B-2s and five B-3s in Texas, with four of them flying out of Bergstrom Air Force Base, located near Austin. 25 aircraft carry 400 nuclear bombs and missiles.
12.10 PM CDT. NATO Pershing II and Griffin missiles stationed in Europe are launched at targets in Russia and the CIS.
Russian submarines armed with ballistic missiles strike designated targets in the United States. 55 warheads out of 76 missiles launched from SSBNs reach the target. Each explosion creates a fireball that emits intense light for about 10 seconds. All flammable materials and objects located at a distance of three to nine kilometers ignite. People and animals located 6.5–18.5 kilometers away suffer second-degree burns. The atmospheric shock wave from each nuclear explosion causes complete or partial destruction of all buildings within a radius of 1.5–4.5 kilometers.
12.50 PM CDT. A massive attack of American missiles launched from SSBNs overcomes the missile defense system around Moscow. The nuclear strike involves SLBMs from the United States, Great Britain and France. About 200 missiles reach their intended targets (about 49 are destroyed by Moscow's missile defense systems). Most of the leaders of the Russian leadership, being in underground shelters, remain alive, but a significant part of the civilian population who were in subway tunnels and other shelters die within a few hours. The total affected area is about one hundred thousand square kilometers. There will be nothing alive left here.
In the United States, about 800 thousand people were killed, up to three million were wounded or injured.
1.00 PM CDT. The third wave of nuclear strikes reaches targets in the United States, 146 warheads fall on US territory. In the Rio Grande Valley, one warhead with a capacity of 350 kilotons exploded over the city of Brownsville, three 350-kiloton warheads exploded in the area of the city of McAllen, and a 550-kiloton warhead exploded on the ground in the area. Harlingen and Cameroon County Airfield. Massive fires.
The total power of all nuclear explosions was about 128 megatons (40 times more than all the exploded ammunition and conventional bombs and shells used during World War II). About three million five hundred thousand people were killed in the state of Texas.
2.00 PM CD. About 700 thousand square kilometers are burning in the United States, up to 250 thousand on Russian territory, and about 180 thousand square kilometers in Europe. Constant or periodically arising and extinguishing flames are observed in a third of the territory of the American states - North Dakota, Ohio, New Jersey, Maryland, Rhode Island, Connecticut and Massachusetts.
As major dams and dams are destroyed as a result of nuclear explosions in the United States, water flows from reservoirs rushing into valleys, the beds of the largest rivers, such as the Missouri, Colorado and Tennessee, will suffer the most.
Results and consequences
5:00 PM CDT. Clouds formed after a series of nuclear explosions at altitudes of 100 to 300 kilometers are moved by winds, forming huge formations of smoke, ash and dust. In the darkness, under the formed clouds, the air cools noticeably.
Evaporation from the surface of the earth mixes with radioactive remnants of nuclear explosions and is deposited in places over which clouds pass. Radiation from fallout is so powerful that it causes radiation sickness in military and civilian survivors of a nuclear explosion. Black rain coming from clouds is radioactive - in some cases it is quite enough to cause skin burns.
The smoke generated by the burning of urban buildings is also radioactive and dangerous to life. Explosions and fires destroy 70 percent of the world's industrial potential.
12:00 am CDT November 13, 2020. The nuclear exchange ends. 5,800 nuclear warheads with a total yield of 3,900 megatons explode in the United States. Russian nuclear weapons have been successfully used in Europe. About 6,100 nuclear warheads with a total yield of 1,900 megatons have been detonated in Russia. During a global nuclear war, about 50 percent of all strategic and tactical nuclear weapons were used up.
About 10% of all ammunition launched at targets and objects did not reach their targets, 30% were destroyed on the ground. In total, during the Third World War, 18 thousand nuclear warheads with a total capacity of 8500 megatons were blown up. Taking into account tactical nuclear weapons, there were 67 thousand nuclear weapons in the world.
In the US, a total of 110 million people died. In Russia – 40 million. Hundreds of thousands of victims in a number of CIS countries. On the territory of mainland China, about 900 million people were killed out of the country's two billion population.
As for the victims of nuclear war in other countries, in Great Britain 20 million people were killed (out of 57 million), in Belgium - two million (out of 5100 million people), in Australia - three million (out of 16 million people), in Mexico - more than three million, most of whom lived in cities bordering the United States.
The total number of people killed in a nuclear war is about 400 million.
9:00 AM CDT. People who survive the effects of nuclear explosions have little chance of receiving medical care. In the United States, there are only 80 thousand beds in special hospitals, while in the country there are about 20 million wounded and injured. About nine million people suffered severe burns to their bodies, while only 200 hospital beds remained to treat people with varying degrees of burns. There is a fairly large number of victims of exposure to electromagnetic pulses (EMP). Fires continue, people receive additional exposure from induced radiation and other damaging factors.
November 18th. Clouds of smoke in the northern part of the hemisphere spread and form a kind of plume around the earth, covering mainly the countries that took part in the conflict. The huge amount of smoke and dust in the atmosphere includes about 1500 million tons and they, absorbing sunlight, block the sun.
20 November. The average dose of radioactivity in the United States after nuclear attacks is about 500 roentgens. By comparison, a dose of 100 roentgens received over a week causes illness in half of the people exposed to radiation. Up to 50 percent of people who receive a dose of 450 roentgens will die within 30 days. With a received dose of radioactivity of 1500 roentgens, almost everyone will die within 10 days.
People staying indoors for one week reduce their radiation dose by about 70 percent.
For the entire United States, the average radiation dose in open areas is 1200 roentgens. For Russians who are in approximately the same conditions - 150 roentgens. The difference is that in Russia nuclear weapons are more powerful and the territory is larger. In European countries, people in open areas can receive an average radiation dose of 500 roentgens. Radioactive fallout falls on the ground completely differently in density and volume: in the United States, infection doses of more than 1800 roentgens are found in eight percent of rural areas; radiation doses of more than 500 roentgens in Russia cover only one percent of the territory.
20th of December. In the Northern Hemisphere, smoke in the lower atmosphere begins to dissipate while at higher altitudes it still absorbs sunlight. There are strong winds in some coastal areas. Fogs shroud the ocean coasts, and smoke envelops North America and Eurasia. Large numbers of civilians and personnel suffering from high doses of radiation experience additional symptoms of radiation sickness: hair loss and leukopenia.
December 25th. The smoke in the northern hemisphere blocks out most of the sunlight, and because it has entered the atmosphere, most of the ozone hole has moved to the Southern Hemisphere.
Naval fighting between NATO and Russian navies has eased. In the US Navy, out of 15 aircraft carriers, three were destroyed by Russian submarines on the first day of the war, and another five were destroyed in ports a little later.
Most civilian satellites have been disabled. In orbit, other spacecraft are damaged by fragments, radiation from exploded nuclear weapons begins to be oriented by the magnetic force lines of the Earth, turning the space around it into a dead zone for many years...
These are the forecast estimates of the development and consequences of the nuclear apocalypse. I would really hate for this gloomy scenario to ever become a reality. But it is a serious reminder that the likelihood of a nuclear global catastrophe is very high. Therefore, in the near future, the leaders of the USA, Russia, China, and other countries must take comprehensive measures to save humanity from falling into the abyss.
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