Alexei Navalny is a well-known Russian oppositionist who has gained unprecedented popularity over the past few months thanks to the investigative film “He’s Not Dimon.” In it, FBK exposes the corrupt activities of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Nowadays, Navalny and his activities are known not only in the Russian Federation, but also far beyond its borders.
Alexei Navalny and the 2018 presidential elections
Alexei Navalny will participate in the 2018 presidential elections. Previously, the majority was skeptical about the participation of the oppositionist in the upcoming elections. However, now Alexei Navalny has received enormous support from the people. This is evidenced by the fact that in total more than 150 thousand citizens came out to the prohibited mass protests on March 26, which were organized by the oppositionist.
The founder of FBK was one of the first to present his election program. What will Alexey Navalny do if he does become president? You can find out the answer to this question by reading this article.
Navalny's presidential program 2018
The main leitmotif of Navalny’s 2018 presidential program is the fight against corruption. According to the oppositionist, brazen theft of the servants of the people is the main problem of today's Russia. However, the country may well get rid of this disease. To achieve this, Alexey Navalny proposes the following measures:
- If a civil servant leads a lifestyle that clearly does not correspond to his legal income, then in this case the deputy is obliged to explain himself. If the official cannot prove the legality of his additional income, then a criminal trial begins.
- If the media accuses an official of corruption, then in this case the civil servant must refute the information published. Otherwise, the servant of the people is removed from office, and a criminal case is opened against him.
- Anti-corruption cases should be carried out with maximum publicity. Corrupt officials must not escape justice.
In addition, Navalny, together with FBK, developed a whole set of laws that are aimed at making state-owned companies as transparent as possible. The founder of FBK wants to remove from management people who use state-owned companies as their feeding trough. The oppositionist also plans to fight corruption in government procurement.
Fight inequality
According to Navalny, at the moment more than 88% of the national bank belongs to a narrow circle of people. Because of this, people are poor. To correct this and combat inequality, the founder of FBK suggests the following:
- Impose a large one-time tax on the oligarchs who make money from the resale of raw materials and government contracts. According to the oppositionist, in this way it is possible to compensate for the injustice that arose due to the privatization of the 90s.
- Raise and develop business. To this end, Navalny plans to exempt individual entrepreneurs with a small income from reporting and taxes.
- Increase the minimum wage to 25 thousand. Navalny is confident that this step is completely feasible. As an example, he cites poor countries in which the average salary is higher than in modern Russia. With all this, the oppositionist plans to ensure that the size of the pension exceeds the subsistence level.
The founder of FBK declares that he will pursue the country’s economic policy in the interests of the Russian people. After all, the oppositionist is not associated with the oligarchs and, accordingly, is unbiased.
Foreign policy
The oppositionist believes that Russia should use its advantageous location between Asia and Europe. Navalny wants rapprochement with European countries that are successful both economically and politically. Thus, Russia must become a respected partner and cooperate with the European Union on equal terms.
In addition, the oppositionist has been advocating for many years the introduction of a visa regime with Transcaucasia and Central Asia. Navalny is convinced that opening borders to poor Asian countries is unprofitable, and labor migrants are required to enter the country on special work visas.
One of the mottos of Navalny’s 2018 election program: “It’s better to trade than to fight.” Alexei Navalny intends to use the billions that are used to wage war in Syria and Ukraine to strengthen the economy and improve the lives of ordinary people.
Opposition politician Alexei Navalny, who was not allowed to participate in the 2018 presidential elections due to a criminal record, does not give up trying to gain Russia's sympathy. On the eve of the big press conference of current President Vladimir Putin, he published his own program.
The composition of the “Expert Council of Presidential Candidate Alexei Navalny,” published along with the program, clearly indicates that we are dealing with a pro-Western liberal. The council, in particular, included Boris Akunin, Vladimir Milov, Sergei Aleksashenko, Elena Lukyanova and Pavel Chikov.
Meanwhile, the document is replete with proposals that would be appropriate in the program of a “left” politician. Among them are an increase in the minimum wage in Russia to 25 thousand rubles, mortgages at 2% per annum, radical reform of the pension system, etc.
Navalny proposes to solve the problem of unfair privatization (namely, according to surveys, the absolute majority of Russians consider it as such, according to surveys) by introducing a compensation tax. True, its specific size is not indicated in any way. This leaves the oligarchs the opportunity to pay off the people with minimal amounts.
Business has not been forgotten either. He was promised a reduction in payroll taxes from 30% to 15%. Navalny’s favorite fight against corruption will be carried out by a special structure removed from law enforcement agencies. The politician proposes to reduce the share of the state's presence in the economy.
Navalny wants to see the army exclusively contract-based. The conscription will be abolished, and the contract soldiers themselves will become one of the highest paid categories of Russian citizens. Each of them was promised a salary of 200 thousand rubles.
It is proposed to introduce a visa regime with the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus - labor migrants must come on work visas. “Our country benefits from political and economic rapprochement with prosperous European countries,” Navalny dreams, without specifying why Europe needs this.
The politician also puts forward the thesis, popular during “perestroika,” about the undesirability of Russia playing an active role in international politics. “Those hundreds of billions that Russia is now throwing away on wars in Syria and Ukraine, on helping distant countries, would be better spent on improving life at home,” Navalny seduces the reader.
At the same time, on what is perhaps the most fundamental issue for every resident of the country - the ownership of Crimea, Navalny casts a shadow over the fence. “The Russian position on this issue will be determined by the recognition of the right of the peoples of Crimea to independently decide their fate,” the program says. For some reason, Navalny ignores the fact that an independent determination - a referendum - has already taken place.
Economist, Professor of the Department of International Finance at MGIMO Valentin Katasonov draws attention to the fact that Navalny, speaking about possible sources of socially significant proposals, is afraid to touch offshore capital withdrawn from Russia.
You can draw many good, socially significant points of the program. But what sources of financing does Mr. Navalny propose to lower wage taxes and increase the region’s share of distributed taxes?
“SP”: - He specifically mentions part of the VAT, mineral extraction tax and excise taxes on tobacco and strong alcohol...
These politicians are demagogues. They are like hell afraid of the main thing - they don’t want to talk about serious sources of financing their good wishes. If Navalny only mentions these sources, then he, as a politician, will completely disappear from the horizon. I mean, first of all, the, conditionally, trillion dollars that are now located outside of Russia and are called offshore assets. So, Navalny, and I follow him, constantly avoids this topic.
In turn, vice-president of the International Academy of Mortgage and Real Estate Irina Radchenko explained why mortgages at 2% in Russia are still unrealistic.
Unfortunately, Alexei Navalny disappointed me. From the part of his program that promises a mortgage at two percent, one does not feel that he is an expert in economics. Making such populist statements is ridiculous.
“SP”: - Well, why? He refers to the experience of developed countries...
In Russia now the key rate is 8%. This is the rate at which the Central Bank offers money to banks. They have to add their margin. This is at least 1%. But since we are talking about a loan, a risky instrument, 2% is better. That is, it turns out to be at least 10%. Where will the 2% come from?
Theoretically, this could happen if the economy grows rapidly. Then perhaps we will see mortgages at 3.5%, as in Europe, or at 3%, as in the USA. But now we are marking time. Growth is about zero. That is, you need to dance based on the key rate. This is rather a general economic issue and concerns not only mortgages.
“SP”: - So you can’t count on a cheap mortgage?
There are non-market mechanisms that allow you to reduce mortgage rates. You've probably heard about a mortgage at 6% per annum for families whose second or third child will be born. But this will be done from the budget.
In addition, in 2015-2016 there was support for all builders and in new-building apartments the mortgage rate was reduced by 2-3%. This was also at the expense of the state budget. That is, such targeted actions are possible for a certain period, but there is no need to declare populist ones.
According to the head of the “Finance and Economics” department of the Institute of Contemporary Development Nikita Maslennikov , Navalny’s pension proposals, although not original, are an important signal to the authorities.
It is significant that in the context of the beginning election campaign, the issue of reformatting the pension system is becoming a priority. This is a signal to the authorities that delays in this matter are beginning to cause social irritation. In this sense, Navalny’s proposals express a social demand for clarity in the strategy for the development of the pension system.
"SP": - What are the current trends?
The replacement rate (the ratio of the average pension to the average salary) this year is about 35%. A few years ago it was 38%. But by 2020, that is, by the year the current three-year budget period ends, we will reach the level of 30.5%. That is, the deterioration of pension provision is obvious. This is objective data included in the budget. By 2020, the transfer allocated to cover the Pension Fund deficit will amount to more than 1.8 trillion. rubles Obviously, solutions are required to balance the pension system.
“SP”: - How can you evaluate Navalny’s specific proposals on this issue? For example, the creation of a special fund at the Pension Fund, where income from natural resources will be transferred...
It's like doubling entities. We already have a National Welfare Fund, which is formed according to the new budget rule from additional revenues from oil and gas exports. The cut-off price is $40 per barrel. That is, if oil now costs 63 dollars, 23 of them will go to the National Welfare Fund. Let me remind you that the legislator initially defined its function as balancing the pension system. Why create another fund?
As for the return of the funded part of pensions, a more thorough approach is required. It is not clear how to give them away, because it was a legislative decision. Therefore, we need to talk not about returning funds, but about rebooting the pension system as such. The new model has a name - individual pension capital. But there are many details that will have to be resolved before it launches.
That is, Navalny doesn’t really offer anything new; rather, he even simplifies it. But the very fact of addressing this issue is important, since it has its own audience, they listen to it, they follow it. We already have 42 million pensioners.
This is obvious populism, an expert from the Academy of Military Sciences criticizes Navalny’s army reform Vladimir Prokhvatilov . - Russia needs an army where there are conscripts, contract soldiers, and private military companies too. In the highest circles of the army, the idea of abolishing conscription is viewed negatively. Because in the event of a serious military conflict with a power comparable to us in military potential, even in Ukraine... Try to drive a contract soldier there. There is an axiom - mercenaries are good only in wars with a weak enemy. The massive revolutionary armies of France utterly defeated the mercenary armies of Prussia, Austria-Hungary, etc.
Navalny is right in many ways when it comes to corruption, but this particular point of the program, about the army, is clearly populist. It aims to gain support from lower-middle-class families who find it difficult to avoid conscription. It would be better if he talked about the need to control the army, prevent hazing, and solve problems with troublemakers from the North Caucasus. And that the grass there should not be forced to be painted and the general's dachas built.
A lawyer commented on the idea of creating a separate anti-corruption structure not related to law enforcement agencies Ilya Craft.
As a lawyer, it’s funny for me to hear this. How can a structure vested with the powers of a special service be outside of law enforcement agencies? This is kind of surr... We just saw what came out of this “wonderful” idea in Ukraine. There is now a fierce confrontation between the Prosecutor General's Office and the National Anti-Corruption Bureau. As a rule, intelligence agencies begin to pursue their own interests and enter into conflicts with other departments.
Where will such a structure receive operational information from? Where will they get the facts of corruption? Watch social networks? Navalny simply has no experience in the law enforcement system.
But Navalny’s idea to introduce a visa regime with the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus, albeit with reservations, met with understanding.
Russia, of course, should introduce entry visas for Central Asian migrants, the president of the Institute for National Strategy is confident Mikhail Remizov. “But she shouldn’t position this as a break in relations or an “iron curtain.” We should talk about restoring order and returning control tools. But talk about the need for rapprochement with a prosperous Europe - that is, about a geopolitical break with the East - significantly reduces the chances that such measures will be taken.
We ourselves must assume and teach our partners in Central Asia that this will be the norm in our relations until a number of socio-economic problems are resolved in these countries. Naturally, we should not reduce the level of cooperation in the field of security or economic exchange.
“SP”: - And Transcaucasia?
Of course, fewer labor migrants come from there. And there are also fewer challenges associated with Islamism. But nevertheless, work visas, as a tool for establishing order, are needed here too. We need positive selection of labor resources. But the difficulty here is that Armenia and Kyrgyzstan are already part of the EAEU. In my opinion, these were controversial decisions. Now these problems will have to be solved using internal regulation tools.
A political analyst at the International Monitoring Organization CIS-EMO notes Navalny’s caution on issues of Crimea and Russian foreign policy.
Navalny’s position on Crimea is very ambivalent. Until recently, he was proud that, unlike the old liberals, he raised the national question. He said that the Russians are the largest divided people in Europe. But when the Crimean referendum happened and the division of Russians decreased somewhat, about two million Crimeans were added, his rhetoric changed dramatically. He began to criticize the referendum procedure, proposing to conduct it according to Ukrainian laws. According to which, by the way, it is simply impossible to hold a referendum on separation from the state. As, by the way, in Russian.
Now he points out that many territorial issues in the world have not been resolved and the Crimean issue is in the same category. This position, of course, irritates both warring groups of opinions on Crimea. Some demand from him unconditional recognition of Crimea as Russian, others - as Ukrainian.
As for Navalny's thesis about whether it is right to spend the country's money on external operations, instead of spending it internally, there is no clear solution. There is not a single country in the world that has solved all its problems within itself and therefore suddenly decided to pursue an active foreign policy. Although such statements are understandable from the point of view of populist rhetoric and criticism of the authorities: abandon Syria, incl. from our military bases there, and build normal roads in Smolensk.
In his blog, a video in which he listed the main provisions of his election program and calculated how much money would be required for its implementation.
“Russia is a very rich country. We need to stop believing the lie that the poverty of the people and the collapse of the economy have some real reasons,” said Navalny, who believes that the main cause of poverty is corruption.
The politician explained that if he wins the presidential election, he intends to redistribute expenses in order to improve the quality of life of Russians. Navalny said that his main task is to invest in human capital.
In his opinion, “the basis for Russia’s prosperity” is good education and decent healthcare. “Everything else makes no sense, and this is the only way we can make our country rich,” Navalny said.
Based on this, Navalny promised to double health care spending to 6.2 trillion rubles. The politician promised to increase spending on education by the same amount.
Navalny also said that if he wins the elections, he will increase the minimum wage to 25 thousand rubles, which will increase budget expenses by another trillion rubles. Navalny’s program also includes a reduction in taxes on small businesses, which adds another 380 billion in expenses to the budget.
According to the politician, it is also necessary to reduce mortgage rates from 11% to 2%, which will require another 200 billion budget funds.
Navalny also explained where he would get the 7.8 trillion rubles needed to implement these points. According to him, 6.3 trillion rubles are allocated for government procurement, and 19.8 trillion rubles for purchases of state-owned companies. Of this money, Navalny calculated, at least 20% is stolen, which amounts to 5.2 trillion rubles.
In addition, the politician said that he plans to reduce spending on officials from 1.85 trillion rubles to 1.05 trillion rubles. Expenditures on security and law enforcement activities - from 2 trillion rubles to 1.25 trillion rubles.
Navalny promised not to cut defense spending, but to change the system of their distribution so that most of the money goes to salaries. “This will make it possible to create a contract army, where professionals receive very good money,” the politician explained.
Navalny intends to reduce subsidies to state corporations from the current 3.89 trillion rubles to 1.89 trillion rubles. Subsidies for state media - from 120 billion rubles to 20 billion rubles.
At the same time, the politician noted that now taxes on the gas industry are “insignificant,” so he plans to increase them, and that the companies brought the budget not 900 billion rubles, but 2.9 trillion rubles. Navalny also promised to “force” state-owned companies to pay the required dividends, which will bring another trillion rubles to the budget. Thus, according to Navalny’s calculations, 11.6 trillion rubles will appear in the budget.
“As you can see, there is enough money right now. And a government that thinks about the country, and not about how to line its pockets, can well resolve all pressing issues,” Navalny said.
Navalny also promised to leave at least another two trillion rubles in taxes in regional centers and give them the authority “to organize their own lives.” In addition, the program includes demonopolization of the economy, reducing the burden on business, an honest judicial system and the powers of parliament.
The Russian presidential elections will take place on March 18, 2018. The head of the Central Election Commission, Ella Pamfilova, said that Navalny has no chance of registering as a candidate in the elections due to his criminal record in the “Kirovles case.” Pamfilova Navalny to try to participate in the elections “sometime in 2028.”
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